Texans trade 23rd pick to Vikings for 42nd, 188th, and 2025 2nd

[PossibleCabbage]

14 hours ago, Chiefer said:

After time to think about it, I don’t understand this trade at all for Houston 

I think the simplest way to understand it is that Houston ran a lot of internal mock drafts and found that the most appealing scenario at 23 was "trade down."  So they figured they were better off shopping the pick now instead of having to take less when they're on the clock.

[CWood21]

51 minutes ago, Acgott said:

It’s definitely QB or WR for Giants, unless they trade back. They have spent the most draft resources on OL by far and they need a RT not a LT. They just traded for Brian Burns, have Kayvon and drafted Deonte Banks last year. CB/Edge are not getting drafted @ #6 by them.

I would agree that QB and WR are the two most likely picks, but again I wouldn't rule out OT.  I know they signed Aaron Stinnie, Jon Runyan, and Jermaine Eluemunor this offseason, and the latter two are probably the only ones guaranteed starting spots given the money spent on them.  But I believe they could roll with Eluemunor at OG instead of RT if the value presented itself.  Again, I'd say QB and WR are exponentially more likely picks.

[lavar703]

The major issue for Minnesota is all three teams at the top need a QB and this is a rare year where the three QBs at the top would all be the first pick in a draft that didn’t include the other two. It’s almost certainly not going to get better than this for Chicago, Washington and New England so really what is the point of trading back? To spend years building a roster to be in the same situation Minnesota is in now? 

[squire12]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

The major issue for Minnesota is all three teams at the top need a QB and this is a rare year where the three QBs at the top would all be the first pick in a draft that didn’t include the other two. It’s almost certainly not going to get better than this for Chicago, Washington and New England so really what is the point of trading back? To spend years building a roster to be in the same situation Minnesota is in now? 

Agreed.   To get into the top 3, Minnesota might need pay pay above whatever a trade chart would suggest.  

2024 pick 11+23 + 2025 1st might be the price.  

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Agreed.   To get into the top 3, Minnesota might need pay pay above whatever a trade chart would suggest.  

2024 pick 11+23 + 2025 1st might be the price.  

If they really like JJ, maybe they can do what the dolphins did in the niners trade and immediately move back up. They get the lance trade from the Vikings - 11 + 23 + next year's 1, then trade to bump back up to 5. Moving down 2 spots and still pocketing at least a first is good business. 

Then you sit JJ, let Jacoby take the field for 24. 

I think the vikings have to overpay the TVC to get to 3 from 11. I think the Pats could potentially get by with underpaying the TVC to trade up with the Chargers, who may really want to move down. 
 

*edit*

At first I thought it would cost both 11 and 23 to get from 11 to 5, but that's not supported on the TVC at all. 

Man, if new england could pull the Lance trade, then move from 11 to 5 via 34 and get like a 3 or 4 back....I think that would be an incredible job. 

[lavar703]

18 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Agreed.   To get into the top 3, Minnesota might need pay pay above whatever a trade chart would suggest.  

2024 pick 11+23 + 2025 1st might be the price.  

I personally just don't see any of the three moving off of their picks. I think Minnesota needs to get to 4 though to leapfrog the Giants for McCarthy. Chicago just got a taste of what the rest of the league thinks about Fields and there is no way they're going to continue down that road. Washington, my team, simply cannot explain away trading Howell to then move down for a prospect like Nix or Penix when you simply could've kept Sam and used a trade down to build around him considering he's younger than both of those guys. New England has been awful since Brady left and has seen some of the worst QB play in the league. I can't see anyway they trot Brissett out there and try to sell that. 

Chicago-Williams

Washington-Maye

New England-Daniels 

And I'm fairly certain these picks are all but set in stone. Its just a bad year for a team trading up to need a QB when all three teams at the top need one as well. 

Edited March 16 by lavar703

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Forge said:

If they really like JJ, maybe they can do what the dolphins did in the niners trade and immediately move back up. They get the lance trade from the Vikings - 11 + 23 + next year's 1, then trade to bump back up to 5. Moving down 2 spots and still pocketing at least a first is good business. 

Then you sit JJ, let Jacoby take the field for 24. 

I think the vikings have to overpay the TVC to get to 3 from 11. I think the Pats could potentially get by with underpaying the TVC to trade up with the Chargers, who may really want to move down. 
 

*edit*

At first I thought it would cost both 11 and 23 to get from 11 to 5, but that's not supported on the TVC at all. 

Man, if new england could pull the Lance trade, then move from 11 to 5 via 34 and get like a 3 or 4 back....I think that would be an incredible job. 

Agreed.

TVC is hard to factor in what teams moving back need/ value, how far back relative to the tier break in talent lies that makes the move "worth it".

[squire12]

9 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I personally just don't see any of the three moving off of their picks. I think Minnesota needs to get to 4 though to leapfrog the Giants for McCarthy. Chicago just got a taste of what the rest of the league thinks about Fields and there is no way they're going to continue down that road. Washington, my team, simply cannot explain away trading Howell to then move down for a prospect like Nix or Penix when you simply could've kept Sam and used a trade down to build around him considering he's younger than both of those guys. New England has been awful since Brady left and has seen some of the worst QB play in the league. I can't see anyway they trot Brissett out there and try to sell that. 

Chicago-Williams

Washington-Maye

New England-Daniels 

And I'm fairly certain this picks are all but set in stone. Its just a bad year for a team trading up to need a QB when all three teams at the top need one as well. 

Agreed.

Washington and NE would need a sizeable overpay to move down to 11 and out of the landing area of the top 4 QB.

Then Arizona at 4 might want a puck higher than 11 in order to have a shot at MHJ/ Nabers.

If NYG wanted to get to 4, Arizona might view being at 6 as a much better oprion than moving back to 11.

[lavar703]

20 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Agreed.

Washington and NE would need a sizeable overpay to move down to 11 and out of the landing area of the top 4 QB.

Then Arizona at 4 might want a puck higher than 11 in order to have a shot at MHJ/ Nabers.

If NYG wanted to get to 4, Arizona might view being at 6 as a much better oprion than moving back to 11.

I think it gets tricky with Arizona too. If they're locked in on MHJ the Vikings would almost certainly have to include one of Addison or Jefferson to move up. I mean, you're asking Arizona to pass on what many believe is the best overall talent in the draft at WR. I think their best bet is San Diego who is sort of in no mans land. 

[CWood21]

33 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Agreed.

Washington and NE would need a sizeable overpay to move down to 11 and out of the landing area of the top 4 QB.

Then Arizona at 4 might want a puck higher than 11 in order to have a shot at MHJ/ Nabers.

If NYG wanted to get to 4, Arizona might view being at 6 as a much better oprion than moving back to 11.

Unless Washington absolutely hates the QBs that Chicago doesn't end up taking, they're not open for business.  They simply aren't going to be willing to move off of a QB short of a team offering a Herschel Walker-kind of deal.  One that completely cripples a franchise moving all those picks.  New England is an absolute mess from top to bottom, so they could be interested in moving off of their pick, but again I think they'd need to be pressed to move that pick.  11/23 for 3 isn't it.  Throw in their '25 FRP and it probably becomes more viable for Minnesota to move up.

Arizona at 4 doesn't really have motivation to move down.  They're going to have their choice of any non-QB prospect available to them, so unless they have a glut of players grouped similarly they're probably not overly inclined to move out of that spot short of an overpay.  And even if they have a couple of players they graded out similarly, how big is that group is going to dictate how far they're willing to move down.  If they're content with either Nabers or MHJ, moving down to 6 with the NY Giants is going to be more palatable than moving all the way down to 11 especially if the packages aren't too terribly far off (say 11/23 vs. 6/47).  So it's likely going to take Minnesota adding to the package to get Arizona to bite unless their tier is pretty big.  And that seems unlikely.

I could absolutely see the Chargers moving off this pick.  I don't think they're necessarily in a rush to move off that pick, but I think they're open for business if the board feels cluttered and they're probably more comfortable moving down from 5 to 11 then say New England is.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Unless Washington absolutely hates the QBs that Chicago doesn't end up taking, they're not open for business.  They simply aren't going to be willing to move off of a QB short of a team offering a Herschel Walker-kind of deal.  One that completely cripples a franchise moving all those picks.  New England is an absolute mess from top to bottom, so they could be interested in moving off of their pick, but again I think they'd need to be pressed to move that pick.  11/23 for 3 isn't it.  Throw in their '25 FRP and it probably becomes more viable for Minnesota to move up.

Arizona at 4 doesn't really have motivation to move down.  They're going to have their choice of any non-QB prospect available to them, so unless they have a glut of players grouped similarly they're probably not overly inclined to move out of that spot short of an overpay.  And even if they have a couple of players they graded out similarly, how big is that group is going to dictate how far they're willing to move down.  If they're content with either Nabers or MHJ, moving down to 6 with the NY Giants is going to be more palatable than moving all the way down to 11 especially if the packages aren't too terribly far off (say 11/23 vs. 6/47).  So it's likely going to take Minnesota adding to the package to get Arizona to bite unless their tier is pretty big.  And that seems unlikely

You used a lot of words to say the same thing i did.

[DirtyDez]

22 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I think it gets tricky with Arizona too. If they're locked in on MHJ the Vikings would almost certainly have to include one of Addison or Jefferson to move up. I mean, you're asking Arizona to pass on what many believe is the best overall talent in the draft at WR. I think their best bet is San Diego who is sort of in no mans land. 

The only scenario is see AZ moving down is if MHJ is gone.  I also don’t see Minnesota trading up that high unless it’s for Maye (not buying the McCarthy stuff).

[minutemancl]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I would agree that QB and WR are the two most likely picks, but again I wouldn't rule out OT.  I know they signed Aaron Stinnie, Jon Runyan, and Jermaine Eluemunor this offseason, and the latter two are probably the only ones guaranteed starting spots given the money spent on them.  But I believe they could roll with Eluemunor at OG instead of RT if the value presented itself.  Again, I'd say QB and WR are exponentially more likely picks.

Ac is right, it is 100% WR or QB for the Giants unless they trade down. And even then, I think WR is almost 100% likely. With Saquon gone, the offensive weapons cabinet is bare. You need someone teams have to gameplan for. 

[lavar703]

16 minutes ago, DirtyDez said:

The only scenario is see AZ moving down is if MHJ is gone.  I also don’t see Minnesota trading up that high unless it’s for Maye (not buying the McCarthy stuff).

Yeah I don't see it either. I just think it was a bad year for Minnesota to try and attempt a move like this. 

[PossibleCabbage]

I think Minnesota believes either:

- JJ McCarthy is a high quality prospect we can win with if we bring him along slowly.
- New England needs so many different things at all levels of their roster, you can sell them on something like 11+23+2025FRP for #3.

Before this trade you could kind of see someone like Penix being really good with the receiving weapons the Vikings have, but if that's the guy they wanted (or Nix, or Ratler) there was no need to trade the future pick.

Edited March 16 by PossibleCabbage