Should We Trade Up?

[jsthomp2007]

19 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

It’s going to be a long road back. You’re right.

But there is no doubt in my mind that Sean, George and the Walmarts have charted a path forward. Is it the right path? I don’t know, but they have a plan and will adhere to it. We’ll find out if it was correct or misguided in a few years. 

That, however, is better than the Trust/Elway with a GM ring and one foot on the golf course and one in Dove Valley, throwing what they can against the wall and seeing what sticks. No money. No direction. An iconic name (Elway) and a jewell franchise hoping upon hope. 

Our ownership, front office and coaching staff are on the same page for the first time since Mr B and Mike Shanahan were running the show - that level of certainty and stability cannot be discounted. 

I was skeptical, but the Walmarts are legit and they’ve all worked on an and developed a plan for short, medium and long term. Like I said, there is not guarantee it will work but at least there is a plan. I don’t want to come across as an apologist or the not be the skeptic I have always been around here, but I think we have adults in charge - across the board - the first time in a long time. 

I like what Penner said a few weeks ago, "don't rebuild, build it right." They only need to look at the Nuggets and Avs to see how to build things correctly.

[thebestever6]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-ranking-all-24-quarterback-classes-since-2000

 

I read this whole ranking and man that 2020 class is ridiculous.  You mean to tell me that the first 5 qbs picked all just happened to be franchise qbs??

Maybe so, but they all went to ideal situations. 

[AKRNA]

4 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I like what Penner said a few weeks ago, "don't rebuild, build it right." They only need to look at the Nuggets and Avs to see how to build things correctly.

I'd be happy if they used the Chiefs as their example. That is, after all, the team they will have to supplant.

[big_palooka]

 

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

17 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

 

 

As Someone who thinks this is a terrible idea I’m reassured that his “insiders“ appear to be Cecil and Ben.

[Cutler06]

17 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Heard the same thing about the LVR team.....living in the Season of Smoke and Lies..and sportskeeda is your goto source ?  LMAO

 

 

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, big_palooka said:

 

 

No.

[paul-mac]

If we trade 12, next year’s 1st and and Surtain for JJ McCarthy I’d be pretty mad. Payton would have to think he’s a HOF level talent to justify that kind of haul. 

[broncos67]

39 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

If we trade 12, next year’s 1st and and Surtain for JJ McCarthy I’d be pretty mad. Payton would have to think he’s a HOF level talent to justify that kind of haul. 

Exactly. Trading 12, Surtain and another pick I could understand, but the idea we'll give up an equivalent of 4 first rounders (Surtain is worth 2), to move up is laughable. 

Here's what I can envision: Williams/Daniels go 1-2, and then Minnesota trades with NE for Maye. This leaves relatively few QB needy teams and may allow Denver to wait and see if McCarthy falls to a more palatable spot (8 to ATL, 9 to CHI), rather than trading up to 4. It seems clear the Broncos want to move out of that spot if they can and if it's not cost prohibitive to move up to get someone.

It's lying season, but I think the most honest assessment of our preferences is to wait and see if a QB is gettable with a trade up that won't cost the farm, otherwise we want to trade down, accumulate picks, and take Bo Nix. If we can trade down once, even twice, grab some picks, and still land a QB Payton likes, I say go for it.

[AnAngryAmerican]

As it happens, Allbright and a reporter guy from Mile High Sports yesterday were saying that the best thing for the Broncos to do is trade back from 12, stockpile picks, build the roster before going all-in for some QB. Plus, odds are that our draft pick next year is going to be higher than 12, making it easier to get a QB then. 

Edited April 18 by AnAngryAmerican

[paul-mac]

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Exactly. Trading 12, Surtain and another pick I could understand, but the idea we'll give up an equivalent of 4 first rounders (Surtain is worth 2), to move up is laughable. 

Here's what I can envision: Williams/Daniels go 1-2, and then Minnesota trades with NE for Maye. This leaves relatively few QB needy teams and may allow Denver to wait and see if McCarthy falls to a more palatable spot (8 to ATL, 9 to CHI), rather than trading up to 4. It seems clear the Broncos want to move out of that spot if they can and if it's not cost prohibitive to move up to get someone.

It's lying season, but I think the most honest assessment of our preferences is to wait and see if a QB is gettable with a trade up that won't cost the farm, otherwise we want to trade down, accumulate picks, and take Bo Nix. If we can trade down once, even twice, grab some picks, and still land a QB Payton likes, I say go for it.

So, a few thoughts.

 

Firstly, I think Surtain should be off the table. The only way I’m even thinking about him is if you could you go all the way up to 1 and get a generational one talent like Caleb Williams. Even 12 + Surtain is way too much for me for a boom/bust guy like McCarthy, but maybe Payton ranks him really high.

 

The idea of one of the QBs sliding towards the back end of the top 10 intrigues me, it’s not something I’d thought about before today, but it’s not outside the range of possibilities. The scenario is something like this: Williams 1, Daniels 2, Maye 3, MHJ 4, then Harbaugh falls in love with someone at 5, Nabers 6, Alt 7 and then it’s kinda open season to trade up to 8 for McCarthy. You can probably go from 12 to 8 for just like a 3rd rounder or something. Then I’m probably fine with it because even if he’s a bust it’s not like you’ve thrown years of resources at him.

 

I do really think the Nix thing is quite likely but the issue is he’s kinda projected to come off the board anywhere between the tail end of the first round and the mid/late second round. He almost certainly won’t make it to our 3rd round pick because there’s enough QB needy teams who probably won’t take one in R1 (Vegas, NYG, Seattle, even the Saints) that probably won’t take one in R1. 
 

Therefore there’s really 3 ways to end up with Penix:

 

1) Reach and take him at 12

 

2) Trade back from 12 and manoeuvre a way to get a pick in the right ballpark. Either you move back really far (like with Buffalo?) and take him late 1st, or you move back like 8-10 spots and get a 2nd in the trade.

 

3) Trade next year’s 1st for a late 1 or early 2 this year and then take him.

 

I think option 1 and 3 are terrible ideas. I can get on board with option 2 but then I really struggle to find a viable trade partner for 12. Who would want to come up to that pick and why? 

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, paul-mac said:

If we trade 12, next year’s 1st and and Surtain for JJ McCarthy I’d be pretty mad. Payton would have to think he’s a HOF level talent to justify that kind of haul. 

Well, that would be 4 #1 picks in a row,  a couple of #2's, several starters plus our only real star player to try to hit on a QB again., this time with a guy that's never played a down in the NFL.

I think I'd have to switch allegiance to a team that realizes there's more than 1 position on a team.

On a good note though, we'd never have to trade up for the #1 pick again. 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

1 hour ago, paul-mac said:

So, a few thoughts.

 

Firstly, I think Surtain should be off the table. The only way I’m even thinking about him is if you could you go all the way up to 1 and get a generational one talent like Caleb Williams. Even 12 + Surtain is way too much for me for a boom/bust guy like McCarthy, but maybe Payton ranks him really high.

 

The idea of one of the QBs sliding towards the back end of the top 10 intrigues me, it’s not something I’d thought about before today, but it’s not outside the range of possibilities. The scenario is something like this: Williams 1, Daniels 2, Maye 3, MHJ 4, then Harbaugh falls in love with someone at 5, Nabers 6, Alt 7 and then it’s kinda open season to trade up to 8 for McCarthy. You can probably go from 12 to 8 for just like a 3rd rounder or something. Then I’m probably fine with it because even if he’s a bust it’s not like you’ve thrown years of resources at him.

 

I do really think the Nix thing is quite likely but the issue is he’s kinda projected to come off the board anywhere between the tail end of the first round and the mid/late second round. He almost certainly won’t make it to our 3rd round pick because there’s enough QB needy teams who probably won’t take one in R1 (Vegas, NYG, Seattle, even the Saints) that probably won’t take one in R1. 
 

Therefore there’s really 3 ways to end up with Penix:

 

1) Reach and take him at 12

 

2) Trade back from 12 and manoeuvre a way to get a pick in the right ballpark. Either you move back really far (like with Buffalo?) and take him late 1st, or you move back like 8-10 spots and get a 2nd in the trade.

 

3) Trade next year’s 1st for a late 1 or early 2 this year and then take him.

 

I think option 1 and 3 are terrible ideas. I can get on board with option 2 but then I really struggle to find a viable trade partner for 12. Who would want to come up to that pick and why? 

Agree with everything you said except Caleb being a generational talent. Kid has waaaayyyy too many Josh Rosen vibes. 

[FalconFan13]

9 hours ago, paul-mac said:

If we trade 12, next year’s 1st and and Surtain for JJ McCarthy I’d be pretty mad. Payton would have to think he’s a HOF level talent to justify that kind of haul. 

My friend you don't even gotta do that if a good QB falls to 8 i got a nice shiny #8 pick + the #43 in round 2 for you for 12 and Surtain 

[broncos67]

12 hours ago, paul-mac said:

So, a few thoughts.

 

Firstly, I think Surtain should be off the table. The only way I’m even thinking about him is if you could you go all the way up to 1 and get a generational one talent like Caleb Williams. Even 12 + Surtain is way too much for me for a boom/bust guy like McCarthy, but maybe Payton ranks him really high.

 

The idea of one of the QBs sliding towards the back end of the top 10 intrigues me, it’s not something I’d thought about before today, but it’s not outside the range of possibilities. The scenario is something like this: Williams 1, Daniels 2, Maye 3, MHJ 4, then Harbaugh falls in love with someone at 5, Nabers 6, Alt 7 and then it’s kinda open season to trade up to 8 for McCarthy. You can probably go from 12 to 8 for just like a 3rd rounder or something. Then I’m probably fine with it because even if he’s a bust it’s not like you’ve thrown years of resources at him.

 

I do really think the Nix thing is quite likely but the issue is he’s kinda projected to come off the board anywhere between the tail end of the first round and the mid/late second round. He almost certainly won’t make it to our 3rd round pick because there’s enough QB needy teams who probably won’t take one in R1 (Vegas, NYG, Seattle, even the Saints) that probably won’t take one in R1. 
 

Therefore there’s really 3 ways to end up with Penix:

 

1) Reach and take him at 12

 

2) Trade back from 12 and manoeuvre a way to get a pick in the right ballpark. Either you move back really far (like with Buffalo?) and take him late 1st, or you move back like 8-10 spots and get a 2nd in the trade.

 

3) Trade next year’s 1st for a late 1 or early 2 this year and then take him.

 

I think option 1 and 3 are terrible ideas. I can get on board with option 2 but then I really struggle to find a viable trade partner for 12. Who would want to come up to that pick and why? 

I think there's a few teams who may want to trade up with Denver : LAR, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Philly are just a few that come to mind. There's likely going to be a glut of OT talent right around our pick, and some late R1 teams may jump at the chance to snag someone. I wouldn't be shocked if we traded back and then traded up to ensure we take someone.

I think, if Russell Wilson was never a thing, we probably aggressively trade up this draft. But the fact that we traded picks for him, picks for a coach, and would then be trading picks for another QB means this team will be in rough shape if we make that aggressive trade. Trading back seems like the logical choice, but who the hell knows.