Soko Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 4 minutes ago, Mox said: That's the difference between 3rd and 10th in the league in targets. The fact that was still getting top 10 targets while producing like a top 50 WR seems generous. The way he was playing, he wasn't going to touch another 22/250 with those targets anyway. That doesn't track though. After his hot start he'd gone 4 straight games under 90 yards prior to Brady's arrival. He had 34 yards the game before Brady showed up, he was already trending down. It’s not top 10. Engram, Chase, Allen, Pittman, AJB, Puka, Wilson, ARSB, Hill, Adams, and Lamb, all exceeded 142 targets (8.3 x 17 = 141.1). 22/250 were rough estimates, using the difference between 173 targets and 141 (32 targets). Diggs caught 67% of his passes last season and had 11.1 yards/catch. So exact numbers, using Diggs’ own efficiency, would be 21.44 catches and 237.98 yards, over the course of a season. Which comes to almost exactly 20% of his season’s production. So yeah, 2 targets/game may not sound like a lot, but over the course of a season, a 20% drop in your targets is significant. Dropping anyone’s targets/attempts/touches by 20% is going to be a lot. I already addressed your last point. Diggs wasn’t putting up 100+ yards every game like he basically was before, but even in that 4 game stretch he was getting more targets and putting up more yards, yards/catch, and catches in that span than he did after Brady came in. I kind of push back on talking about the “decline” of a guy after putting up multiple 100+ yards games in the first place (in those 4 games it was 58, 70, 86, 34), unless you were expecting Diggs to be a 2K kinda guy, but yeah, even then it was still better than with Brady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Nex_Gen said: If you can't be content playing with Josh Allen, getting the most targets in the league, signed to a top market deal and contending year after year, you're never gonna be content. Always loved Diggs since he's been in the league but he's a bonafide diva and locker room cancer. This. It will be interesting to see how a 2nd year QB handles the same 💩 he was pulling in Buffalo. Let him be called and utilized as a #2 "behind" Nico...., look out! Only upside for Diggs and what he truly cares about, money. No State Income Taxes in Texas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsoxsuck05 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: And still couldn't get past the divisional round Yeah, a game where they gave him a ton of targets and he played like crap. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 8 minutes ago, Soko said: It’s not top 10. Engram, Chase, Allen, Pittman, AJB, Puka, Wilson, ARSB, Hill, Adams, and Lamb, all exceeded 142 targets (8.3 x 17 = 141.1). 22/250 were rough estimates, using the difference between 173 targets and 141 (32 targets). Diggs caught 67% of his passes last season and had 11.1 yards/catch. So exact numbers, using Diggs’ own efficiency, would be 21.44 catches and 237.98 yards, over the course of a season. Which comes to almost exactly 20% of his season’s production. So yeah, 2 targets/game may not sound like a lot, but over the course of a season, a 20% drop in your targets is significant. Dropping anyone’s targets/attempts/touches by 20% is going to be a lot. I already addressed your last point. Diggs wasn’t putting up 100+ yards every game like he basically was before, but even in that 4 game stretch he was getting more targets and putting up more yards, yards/catch, and catches in that span than he did after Brady came in. I kind of push back on talking about the “decline” of a guy after putting up multiple 100+ yards games in the first place (in those 4 games it was 58, 70, 86, 34), unless you were expecting Diggs to be a 2K kinda guy, but yeah, even then it was still better than with Brady. Okay, I did the math wrong on the first part. That'd be what, 12th? He only saw a 1.9 target difference over half a season though. That doesn't actually factor in how he played the second half of the year. You're really looking at a difference of under 10 catches and 100 yards for him keeping up that same target rate performing the way he was, which isn't a big deal. You literally said this: "Are we going to assume that Diggs started to decline, right there in that moment?" No, it didn't happen at that moment, it had been happening prior. And continued to get worse as the season went on. This addresses both of your questions. He wasn't performing well, therefore targets weren't warranted. What are you supposed to do when he gets 11 targets, catches 4, and has 24 yards? Or does similarly bad in the playoffs? That's on Diggs, not on Brady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 4 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: This. It will be interesting to see how a 2nd year QB handles the same 💩 he was pulling in Buffalo. Let him be called and utilized as a #2 "behind" Nico...., look out! Only upside for Diggs and what he truly cares about, money. No State Income Taxes in Texas. Yeah NYS taxes suck absolute ***. But he got everything a premier receiver wants out of the Bills and it still wasn’t enough 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 4 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said: Saw it in person…probably better that way than seeing that replay on tv at home lol. Spoiled an all time throw by Allen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Mox said: Okay, I did the math wrong on the first part. That'd be what, 12th? He only saw a 1.9 target difference over half a season though. That doesn't actually factor in how he played the second half of the year. You're really looking at a difference of under 10 catches and 100 yards for him keeping up that same target rate performing the way he was, which isn't a big deal. You literally said this: "Are we going to assume that Diggs started to decline, right there in that moment?" No, it didn't happen at that moment, it had been happening prior. And continued to get worse as the season went on. This addresses both of your questions. He wasn't performing well, therefore targets weren't warranted. What are you supposed to do when he gets 11 targets, catches 4, and has 24 yards? Or does similarly bad in the playoffs? That's on Diggs, not on Brady. It really…wasn’t happening prior, though. I mean, yeah, he wasn’t going for 100+. But seriously, is that to be expected? No one thought Diggs would be a 1700-2000 yard guy. Ceedee Lamb had a 4 game stretch where was averaging those same number of yards as Diggs. Mike Evans had like 6. So did DJ Moore. So did ARSB. Like, a 4 game stretch where you’re averaging 8/65~ isn’t really an indication of regression. It’s pretty standard for most of the league’s most productive WRs to have stretches like that. It’s par for the course. It dropped even further AFTER Brady. That was the turning point where things got worse. Targets, catches, yards, yard/catch, passer rating when targeted, catch%, it all got worse across the board. And yeah, there was a “fall back to earth” stretch, but it’s one that almost all WRs have. I’m not saying Joe Brady is the only reason Diggs’ production fell off. But I don’t see how the facts support the idea that Diggs wasn’t phased out of the offense, particularly compared to how he was the focal point of it with Dorsey. Nor do I see merit in saying “Diggs wasn’t going 8/100+ every week, so he regressed” when the majority of good WRs in the league do the exact same thing, but they bounce back/sprinkle in some more big games. That never happened with Brady. But it did before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 15 minutes ago, Soko said: It really…wasn’t happening prior, though. I mean, yeah, he wasn’t going for 100+. But seriously, is that to be expected? No one thought Diggs would be a 1700-2000 yard guy. Ceedee Lamb had a 4 game stretch where was averaging those same number of yards as Diggs. Mike Evans had like 6. So did DJ Moore. So did ARSB. Like, a 4 game stretch where you’re averaging 8/65~ isn’t really an indication of regression. It’s pretty standard for most of the league’s most productive WRs to have stretches like that. It’s par for the course. It dropped even further AFTER Brady. That was the turning point where things got worse. Targets, catches, yards, yard/catch, passer rating when targeted, catch%, it all got worse across the board. And yeah, there was a “fall back to earth” stretch, but it’s one that almost all WRs have. I’m not saying Joe Brady is the only reason Diggs’ production fell off. But I don’t see how the facts support the idea that Diggs wasn’t phased out of the offense, particularly compared to how he was the focal point of it with Dorsey. Nor do I see merit in saying “Diggs wasn’t going 8/100+ every week, so he regressed” when the majority of good WRs in the league do the exact same thing, but they bounce back/sprinkle in some more big games. That never happened with Brady. But it did before. I don't know how to respond to this other than we are interpreting the data differently, and I don't agree with how you're doing it. I'm confident Diggs is going to look a lot closer to second half Diggs than first half Diggs next season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Mox said: I don't know how to respond to this other than we are interpreting the data differently, and I don't agree with how you're doing it. I'm confident Diggs is going to look a lot closer to second half Diggs than first half Diggs next season. First half Diggs would be 136-1590-13, all career bests. So I’d say your bet’s pretty safe, lol. Which was basically my point above, Diggs was super hot early on and then did what all other basically all other receivers do - come back to earth for a month or so. He went from career best to worst as a Bill. Seems pretty unlikely to me that that’s all natural and had little to do with the offensive shift to running the ball/targeting other players. Edited April 3 by Soko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 54 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: This. It will be interesting to see how a 2nd year QB handles the same 💩 he was pulling in Buffalo. Let him be called and utilized as a #2 "behind" Nico...., look out! Only upside for Diggs and what he truly cares about, money. No State Income Taxes in Texas. Hope he doesn't buy home there. The Bills just took massive financial hits to get this guy out of the building. The Texans had a good thing going there with their young group. Why throw this malcontent in the mix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 We’re not expecting something to come out in the wash regarding Nico or Tank are we…? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Do the Bills have anyone left at WR? Maybe Tyler Boyd getting signed here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, Hunter2_1 said: We’re not expecting something to come out in the wash regarding Nico or Tank are we…? In the event that isn't the case, that's a pretty legit top 3 for Houston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D82 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said: Only upside for Diggs and what he truly cares about, money. No State Income Taxes in Texas. You end up paying for it elsewhere though...so it's not all it's cracked up to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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