Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)

[Forge]

I'm reasonably sure the ravens sniped the niners pick in both the guest and second round. 

They sniped Isaac from me in the third round for me shadow draft

[dll2000]

On 5/1/2024 at 12:06 AM, goldfishwars said:

23. Minnesota Vikings

This Class In One Sentence:

You drafted like a contender looking for a final piece of the jigsaw, now you've got to contend

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

QB, EDGE, CB, DL, IOL, WR, RB

Selections

10. JJ McCarthy | QB | Michigan

17. Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama

108. Khyree Jackson | CB | Oregon

177. Walter Rouse | OT | Oklahoma

203. Will Reichard | K | Alabama

Best Pick

With the concerns I have at 10 and 17, it’s probably Khyree Jackson at 108. He’s a seriously long boundary corner at 6’3, with a 78-inch wingspan and showed up well in a range of scouting metrics. He isn’t as comfortable in press man as he is in zone, so needs a lot of technique work – but the tools are great.

Worst Pick

The obvious counterargument to what I’m about to complain about, is that the ends justify the means. But the reality is, the Vikings only had to move up one spot to get their quarterback (after EVERYTHING) and they didn’t have to do that it turns out. That’s great for them, but it had nothing to do with anything other than being below average last year. Everything else, the desperation moves to get up into the first, when it came down to it, didn’t matter. So to then burn a bunch more picks this year and next to get Dallas Turner, who I like, isn’t worth the return for a team with paper-thin depth at some key spots - particularly on the interior on both sides which didn't see a single selection. They also need a third receiver where they don’t even have KJ Osborn any longer. 

Overall

Look, the Vikings should feel happy coming out of the draft with, what they feel, is a franchise-calibre quarterback and a top-tier edge-rusher. That’s a great outcome for any team and it’s at the high end of a list of possible outcomes one week ago. They kept their second first rounder, as well as their first rounder in 2025. That's nice, but JJ is an enigmatic prospect given his resume. It’s a thin body of work, but he was trusted to make plays when it mattered and he delivered. He’s clutch, he throws well over the middle and on the move. But there’s a tough read on what his actual upside is. Turner has a genuinely rare profile for a rusher who can convert speed to power. He’s played with a hand on the ground and from a standing start and attacked a variety of gaps.

Minnesota kept bumping into a ceiling with Kirk at QB and stuck at a price because they wanted to draft his replacement. And while that decision was generally popular with the fanbase, not signing Cousins potentially threw them into a quarterback purgatory. There was blood in the water. Fast forward one month, JJ McCarthy is in town, all is good with the world. But how close to the ideal outcome is it? And was he the sought-after commodity we were led to believe throughout the draft?

Let’s look at the facts:

Two teams put in trade offers for the Patriots pick at three. They were the Giants, who wanted Drake Maye and Minnesota who also wanted Drake Maye. The Giants were not in on JJ McCarthy, who let him slide by at 6. Atlanta, who was a surprise QB hungry team chose Michael Penix over JJ McCarthy. The Broncos, by all accounts, were all in on Bo Nix and did not make a move for McCarthy. The Raiders did not make a move to trade up for McCarthy, nor was he one of the four quarterbacks they brought in as one of their Top 30 visits. That's a lot of QB desperate teams who lacked an appetite for the Michigan man. 

Now let’s look at the fit:

In eight games last season, Kirk Cousins was throwing the football, on average, 39 times per game. In 15 games for Michigan, McCarthy threw the ball 22 games avg. I get this is basic stuff, but that is a staggering difference, and either means two things. McCarthy is going to throw the ball more in Minnesota than he did in Michigan, or Kevin O’Connell et al are going to tailor the offense to what he does best (make third down throws?). Either way, it seems like they will have to run the ball more than they have been. Only that’s not really where the strength of this offense lies, even with an ageing Aaron Jones onboard. There are mouths to feed and I can’t imagine one particularly highly paid receiver will put up with the scraps those Michigan receivers had to. It genuinely will be fascinating to see what happens next. 

You have to make a call on this in real time.  I would agree with you.  

I would say this is one of those “potential” drafts.   Potential usually gets you fired.   McCarthy is definitely not a finished product and despite his great athleticism neither is Dallas.   

Could be an all timer good or bad when it is all said and done.  

Nobody can tell me they traded up with primary idea of getting McCarthy though.  He was plan B.  Could work out for better in lucky fashion.  One thing about McCarthy to this point in his life is he is common denominator on a lot of winning.  Coaches love him.  I guess that is two things. 

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I'm reasonably sure the ravens sniped the niners pick in both the guest and second round. 

They sniped Isaac from me in the third round for me shadow draft

You think the Niners were targeting Rosengarten in the 2nd at 64? I do think there is a very good possibility he was the Commanders pick at 67.

Rakestraw, Rosengarten, Suamatia, Renardo Green, and Malachi Corley was a brutal run of prospects I liked before our pick at 67. 

[JIllg]

17 hours ago, Forge said:

Okay, I'm getting concerned that the 49ers may have broken their streak of landing outside the top 20 of these rankings. 

I think the highest they have ever been since 2018 was like 23 lol 

Ah, the 49ers. Where weirdness and failure to match consensus is either genuine stupidity or utter genius. No in between.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

You think the Niners were targeting Rosengarten in the 2nd at 64? I do think there is a very good possibility he was the Commanders pick at 67.

Rakestraw, Rosengarten, Suamatia, Renardo Green, and Malachi Corley was a brutal run of prospects I liked before our pick at 67. 

Oh yeah. We were joking in the forum that he was going to be the pick at 31. Lynch said afterward that they had a group of tackles that they liked and Rosengarten was one of them. Doesn't mean that he was going to be the pick, that's just me making a guess, but I think there's at least a decent chance. It's possible that the idea was always getting a guard though. They seem to like McKivitz well enough (no idea why) and he and Trent both have 2 more years left. On the interior, Banks and Feliciano are both free agents after the year and Burford is not an option moving forward. Possible they thought that was the point of bigger impact and made it a point to move up in the third to go get Puni. 

On the actual night of the draft, I had started prepping for Wiggins in round 1. We had brought him in on a 30 visit (in the past, this has been a big deal with guys that are drafted) and Matt Maiocco was posting polls about which cornerback fans preferred and Mike Silver was leaning toward secondary being the pick based on what he knew. 

[Forge]

42 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Ah, the 49ers. Where weirdness and failure to match consensus is either genuine stupidity or utter genius. No in between.

Ain't that the truth 

[goldfishwars]

19. Green Bay Packers

This Class In One Sentence:

It was always going to be a haul, but it looks different to what I had imagined

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

CB, OT, IOL, S, LB, DL, EDGE

Selections

25. Jordan Morgan | OT | Arizona

45. Edgerrin Cooper | LB | Texas A&M

58. Javon Bullard | S | Georgia

88. Marshawn Lloyd | RB | USC

91. Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | Missouri

111. Evan Williams | S | Oregon

163. Jacob Monk | OC | Duke

169. Kitan Oladapo | S | Oregon State

202. Travis Glover | OT | Georgia State

245. Michael Pratt | QB | Tulane

255. Kalen King | CB | Penn State

Best Pick

Javon Bullard - A versatile defensive back who could fill in at all DB spots if needed – even outside corner. Experienced in a variety of different coverages. Tough-nosed playmaker who hits hard and plays smart. Fierce competitor. There’s below-average height and length which I’m surprised didn’t put the Green Bay scouts off as he’s not a top-tier athlete either - jumps were poor to average in testing. But he’s so tough and adaptable that you want him on your team.

Worst Pick

I suppose I envisaged more premium picks on the offensive line and at corner and for Jordan Morgan not to be the selection at 25. And I was sure that when the Packers were on the clock at 25, it was a wrap they would pick either Graham Barton or Cooper DeJean. They just felt like Packers picks, to the point I didn’t connect Morgan who I had rated a little lower. He is a good run blocker, rapid out of his stance and can hit targets out in space. He’s got good technique, and he’s versatile which is important to GB. Given his lack of length and troubles with power, I wouldn’t have thought he would fit the traditional mould of a Green Bay pick – but I can only imagine they feel confident about working him in at tackle.

Overall

I was braced to love what Green Bay did in the draft this year, given the number of picks at their disposal and how their needs aligned well with the depth class. And because of that, I came away feeling a little underwhelmed by it. I mean, there’s still plenty to like off the bat – but also to feel like they were shopping in the right store but reaching for different items.

Similar to the Morgan selection, there was a clear-cut need at linebacker and Cooper feels like Quay Walker mk2 than a complimentary piece. He’s a rapid linebacker who is comfortable against run and pass. He can fly and is an ideal modern linebacker size at 6’3 and 230. Like Quay coming out, he’ll need time to season as a play diagnoser. I was probably a little too low on Marshawn Lloyd, who can bang, catch and hit home runs. That’s somebody who is built to run the football in colder weather. That’s a decent business at 88 if the ball security can tighten up, along with his ability to pass-protect.

The next three selections were a little left-field. Ty'Ron Hopper is a bit of a hybrid linebacker/safety who can chase down running backs and man up on tight ends. He’s notably wiry, however, and underpowered as a take on guy. Evan Williams is another versatile safety with plenty of special teams experience. Jacob Monk became the second selection along the offensive line. I’ve got to be honest, I’ve no idea about that guy. Green Bay normally knows what they are doing, so it’s probably okay…

I’m more comfortable with what Green Bay did with the final four selections. Kitan Oladapo I liked a little better than Williams at Oregon. Man, the Packers aren’t short of options at the back end after this draft - is it overkill at this point? I think he’s good value here, plays the run and pass well – good size and, a strong tackler. I like it. Travis Glover is someone I liked for the Pats to grab late, a massive chap who could be a swing at a couple of spots and has developmental upside. Michael Pratt was a far better prospect than pick 245, that was a lovely business to get him there. I think he’s automatically the second-best thrower on the team. Kalen King was great in 2022, and bad in 2023 before a disastrous draft process where he was horrible at the Senior Bowl. But his best tape is absolutely worth a late-round shot at.

[Daniel]

I liked the Ravens draft myself, more than the Packers for sure.  But Adissa Isaac is the player I'm second highest on vs. the consensus, so I think they got him at an absolute steal.  Great value with Tampa as well, then got Rosengarten and Wiggins at appropriate value.  Walker a reach though.

I didn't like Morgan, and hated Edgerrin Cooper though, so Green Bay was one of my lower ranked drafts.

[Dr LBC]

On 4/28/2024 at 5:28 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

The whole Penix situation is something never seen before because i think Alot of people think Penix is actually good and if he went to Denver or LVR no one would've said a thing. its the weird landing that is so screwy

Left-handed complement buried in there?

[Dr LBC]

Also, and I'm not even sure @goldfishwars is as fully-invested as this in his analysis and rankings, but "value" is an extremely subjective term - and not just in terms of an individual analyst's "value" of a player based upon their assessment of the prospect.  When you take into account play-styles and schemes (and in particular, active scheme-changes) of the respective team that is drafting the player, that particular combination of traits and skills and/or that particular position may have greater value to one team or a subset of teams versus another.  As the saying goes, this isn't Madden.  And we're not exactly analyzing these guys in a vaccuum.

[PossibleCabbage]

People putting "CB" as one of the Packers needs were both misreading the room and also not listening to things Brian Gutekunst was freely telling the public.  Going into the draft they had 5 roster locks at CB and one at Safety (AJJ probably was, but they were clearly happier with what they got from Val/Ballentine last year).  After the draft we found out that Erik Stokes was full go, and they're paying Nixon like a starting nickel.

I'm pretty sure the Morgan over Barton decision was predicated basically on "if this guy has to play tackle, which one do we want playing tackle?"  There were rumblings that the organization wanted to move Tom to center next year so they weren't necessarily in the market for one.

But realistically going into the draft the most upgradable positions on the roster were safety, RB2, LB, and OL depth in some order; which is a weird set of needs since it's basically all nonpremiums.  Which basically explains the draft, since you could make a case that they drafted the best LB, best safety, and best RB in the draft.  Personally I would have it in the top half but there's not a lot of razzle dazzle there.

Edited May 2 by PossibleCabbage

[dll2000]

On 4/28/2024 at 5:51 PM, Sad People said:

Cheers for the help. I will give it a try next time.

Tried it. But both links and the embed link came up red within the "Inset image from URL" which is odd.

I figured it out on a computer (with help from someone).

Step 1:  Go to Tenor or Giphy.

Step 2:  Find the GIF you want.

Step 3: Right click and open image in a new tab.  That new tab link should end in .gif.   

Step 4:  Copy and paste

 

 

[EL Guapo]

Goldfish are a peaceful fish

[Sad People]

EDIT: Scuffed it up but it works lol Thanks yo!!!!

51 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I figured it out on a computer (with help from someone).

Step 1:  Go to Tenor or Giphy.

Step 2:  Find the GIF you want.

Step 3: Right click and open image in a new tab.  That new tab link should end in .gif.   

Step 4:  Copy and paste

 

 

 

Edited May 2 by Sad People

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

19. Green Bay Packers

Honestly, 19th seems about right.  I kinda figured they were going to be a middle of the pack in terms of rankings.  I don't think Green Bay necessarily had the sexiest drafts, but they filled needs with good value pretty consistently.  Good work as always.