Alvin Kamara vs. Dion Lewis

[BleedTheClock]

3 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

 

 

If you follow the bold statements throughout the thread, I'd imagine you can see why I got such a kick out of this. It started out with Fournette is easily better than Kamara, and you'd take him before Kamara without even blinking. Then it turned into Saints fans are the biggest homers on this forum when we stated that Kamara is as good or better than Fournette. Now it appears that you stated that if we think it's Kamara and it's not even close in comparison to Fournette, it gives you a chuckle. Think how we felt when you stated Fournette is easily better than Kamara. I literally laughed out loud when I read it the first time.

I'd also add that after that comment regarding Saints fans being the biggest homers, I made a poll for Kamara vs. Fournette to test how bad my Saints bias is, as I've been called out for it. Here are the results after a couple days:

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/6648-alvin-kamara-vs-leonard-fournette/

 

I would take Fournette over Kamara without blinking. I do think he's better. I never said anything about Kamara not being good. Most Saints fans weren't crapping on Fournette. They were just taking Kamara over Fournette which is fine. I was moreso calling out VanS for his argument that YPC made Kamara significantly better.

Let me ask you this: Do you think Kamara and Fournette are close in talent? You can say Kamara over Fournette, fine. But VanS was painting Fournette out to be some run-of-the-mill RB, which he is not.

 

And that poll is close. Kamara was more productive and people are stat whores. 90% of the comments in there highlight the issue: They are two completely different players. Fournette is a grind-it-out runner, Kamara is a slasher and a receiver. I prefer grind-it-out runners that can handle a heavy workload and punish a defense. Fournette on the Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Kamara on the Jaguars. That's my argument and I bet if you made that poll, Fournette would be ahead by a mile.

Last post on the subject. Goodnight Saints fans.

[lancerman]

1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

Newton is used as our short-yardage and goal-line runner on designed runs and I'm almost certain he's used in those situations at a far higher percentage than Bortles.  I would hope he (being Bortles) would have a higher YPC on his scrambles with defenders not bundled at the LOS.  And he still had 400+ less rushing yards than Cam.

Regardless, I feel confident there is no team that would hesitate in deciding between Cam and Bortles.  Nobody sits there and says, "man, Cam is holding back the Panthers".  He's consistently the only reason why our offense ever does anything, especially this season with Olsen out with an injury.  It's hard to have a high CMP% when you're consistently saddled with receivers who can't separate in a low-percentage, Air Coryell offense, especially when you are your teams lead RB.  By the time he played the Saints in the playoffs, his #2 WR was someone who wasn't on the team a month ago and his #1 WR could barely play through his shoulder injury.

Cam ain't perfect and maybe he is overrated (depending on your perspective; I see far more instances of people trashing him than the other way around but maybe you see it differently), but he's definitely better than Bortles.

I agree with you, Cam overall is better. But Bortles was a better passer this year and he was one of the better running QB's. The problem is that Bortles was still a very poor passer, which says something that Cam is lesser than him at what is probably the most important function of his position. If you made me pick, I'd say the difference in passing is so slim that Cam gets the edge off running by a good margin.

[tyler735]

11 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I would take Fournette over Kamara without blinking. I do think he's better. I never said anything about Kamara not being good. Most Saints fans weren't crapping on Fournette. They were just taking Kamara over Fournette which is fine. I was moreso calling out VanS for his argument that YPC made Kamara significantly better.

Let me ask you this: Do you think Kamara and Fournette are close in talent? You can say Kamara over Fournette, fine. But VanS was painting Fournette out to be some run-of-the-mill RB, which he is not.

 

And that poll is close. Kamara was more productive and people are stat whores. 90% of the comments in there highlight the issue: They are two completely different players. Fournette is a grind-it-out runner, Kamara is a slasher and a receiver. I prefer grind-it-out runners that can handle a heavy workload and punish a defense. Fournette on the Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Kamara on the Jaguars. That's my argument and I bet if you made that poll, Fournette would be ahead by a mile.

Last post on the subject. Goodnight Saints fans.

The bold quotes are again just silly. Much of the other stuff is fairly accurate. It is easy to look at Kamara's numbers and say he is the better player (In this case it isn't really wrong either, as there are several stat categories Kamara has an advantage). His averages per touch rushing/receiving are excellent. However it goes beyond just YPC. Kamara does things that few RB's in the NFL can do in the open field. This is backed up by stats (Forced missed tackles per touch), and the classic "eye ball test". Kamara has special balance to go along with excellent burst/change of direction ability. Next gen stats did a report on Kamara as well stating that he is the fastest ball carrier in the league running through the line of scrimmage, which suggests that his burst is excellent as I had just mentioned. His ability to withstand contact and maintain his balance is very similar to a guy like Jamaal Charles who was one of the best in the NFL at this for years. They both are very talented players, but the "eyeball test" is telling me that Kamara is the better player. To say Kamara on the Jaguars would be <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Fournette on the Saints is just silly. Kamara would still be able to utilize his versatility on the Jaguars. Bortles is a bad QB, but he certainly could hit Kamara on screens, quicks slants, etc. That's part of what makes Kamara great. He does a crazy amount of work after the catch making defenders miss on fairly simple short routes, but also has the ability to run more advanced routes down the field as well, which is where he'd see the biggest drop with Bortles.

[Tyronnosaurus]

At first I thought this was some joke thread. Kamara is a blossoming superstar while Lewis is a solid receiving back who greatly benefits from BB and the system. Now if I played NO and NE, Lewis could strike a near equal amount of fear, but that's just because the Patriots can make any average Joe a nightmare matchup. But could you imagine if Kamara played for the Pats?

[Breesus mode]

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

So if Kamara was so much better than Fournette as a prospect, why was Fournette taken #4 overall and Kamara taken in the 3rd round?

Because Butch Jones sucks

[Breesus mode]

6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I would take Fournette over Kamara without blinking. I do think he's better. I never said anything about Kamara not being good. Most Saints fans weren't crapping on Fournette. They were just taking Kamara over Fournette which is fine. I was moreso calling out VanS for his argument that YPC made Kamara significantly better.

Let me ask you this: Do you think Kamara and Fournette are close in talent? You can say Kamara over Fournette, fine. But VanS was painting Fournette out to be some run-of-the-mill RB, which he is not.

 

And that poll is close. Kamara was more productive and people are stat whores. 90% of the comments in there highlight the issue: They are two completely different players. Fournette is a grind-it-out runner, Kamara is a slasher and a receiver. I prefer grind-it-out runners that can handle a heavy workload and punish a defense. Fournette on the Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Kamara on the Jaguars. That's my argument and I bet if you made that poll, Fournette would be ahead by a mile.

Last post on the subject. Goodnight Saints fans.

Not our fault you can't view reality objectively

[VanS]

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

So if Kamara was so much better than Fournette as a prospect, why was Fournette taken #4 overall and Kamara taken in the 3rd round?

Fournette is a much more physical runner. Has better top end speed. Has more power. Those three things are undeniable. Kamara is better in space. Has much better route running. Has better hands. Those things are undeniable. Oh, and Fournette is undeniably better in pass protection.

For the same reason Tom Brady fell to the 6th round.  Draft evaluators are not infallible.  We see great players fall in the draft every year and we see total scrubs get taken high in the draft every year.   Draft position is not a argument one way or another once we've seen the players play in the NFL.  And I disagree with you about Fournette having more power.  Kamara broke more tackle this season than Fournette.  He was also among the league leaders in yards after contact (ahead of Fournette).  Fournette only looks like he should have more power than Kamara.  The numbers don't support your assumption that Fournette is more powerful.  The numbers say Kamara is the more physical and powerful runner.

 

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Stop ignoring the fact that the Saints had an insanely better offensive structure around Kamara. I can tell you that if Kamara and Fournette were swapped, Fournette isn't averaging 3.9 and Kamara isn't averaging 6.1. I watched Kamara run against 7 man boxes all day long. I watched Fournette run against 8-9 man boxes all day long. To point at the statistics and ignore their situations is ridiculously unfair. The Saints had a better OL at every position other than maybe Center. The Saints had better skill position players everywhere. The Saints have a HOF QB, the Jaguars are going to try and replace their QB this off-season. The Saints had another RB that had a career year in that offense. The Saints had a deep threat that kept safeties away from being nosy. The Jaguars had undrafted 4.59 Keelan Cole as their deep threat. Safeties were up in the bo every single play.

So let's say, for example, that Kamara is better. You're going to tell me that he's significantly better than Fournette? I'm laughing at you.

Once again you posted a lot of assumptions.  Mark Ingram ran behind the same offensive line this season and averaged 4.9 YPC.  That's pretty good.  Consider that Ingram's career average is 4.5 YPC.  Now look at Alvin Kamara.  He averaged a ridiculous 6.1 YPC.  And alot of his yardage came after contact.  He was among the league leaders in broken tackles and yards after contact.  I think its disingenuous to argue that his ridiculous YPC average was because of the offensive line.  He averaged over 1 YPC more than his Pro-Bowl RB teammate.  He was also among the league leaders in broken tackles and yards after contact which show that he was the one responsible for getting those extra yards that bumped his average up and not solely the offensive line.

You could put Fournette behind the Saints line and he wouldn't come close to Kamara's 6.1 YPC.  Why?  Because he doesn't break tackles and gain yards after contact like Alvin.  What makes Kamara special as a runner is the fact he gets more yards after contact than almost everyone else.  That is why his numbers are ridiculous.  It isn't as simple as the offensive line being elite or playing with Drew Brees.

 

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Look, you nailed the Kamara analysis. You said he was an elite RB and it looks like he's going to be in that ilk. But you're ignoring the situation he was placed in. Looking at YPC as a way to cement your argument that the two aren't close is dumb. Have you watched Jacksonville play this year? He has to churn and scratch and claw for every single yard. Kamara was zipping through wide open spaces in New Orleans. It doesn't discredit Kamara as being good by any measure, but to not see the drastically improved running conditions for Kamara is just...blind stupidity.

Royce Freeman, Josh Adams, and 31 other runningbacks had higher YPC averages than Saquon Barkley did this year. Are those guys clearly better than Barkley? Should we put Bryce Love significantly ahead of him as a prospect because of the staggering difference in YPC that each had? Ignoring the schemes and offensive lines that teams put out on the field with the RB each week is asinine and stupid. If I were a huge Josh Adams honk (I'm not), I could throw those stats at the wall and thump my chest. But I wouldn't, because that's stupid. Anyone with eyeballs can see that Barkley is the better player playing behind a bad OL with a bleh supporting cast. Adams is running behind an elite OL that creates massive holes. Anyone with eyeballs can see the vastly different situations both RB's were put in. Anyone with eyeballs can tell that they are, at least, close in ability and talent. I still think Fournette is more talented, but if you think Kamara is slightly ahead, fine. But to act like it's not close gives me a chuckle.

No.  I don't use YPC solely when judging players.  I'm already on the record saying Saquon Barkley is the best RB prospect I've ever seen.  There is a place for the eye test when it comes to judging players.  But numbers matter as well.  Especially in the NFL when there isn't as big a gap between the talent of teams as there is in college.  The reason stats in college are unreliable for judging talent is not because stats like YPC are not important.  Its because there is a huge gap between talent.  Some college teams are stacked with talent while other are not and similarly some play very strong opponents while other play cupcakes.  With such a wide range of quality when it comes to opponents and teammates, stats are unreliable when judging players talent in going from college to the NFL.

However, once we get to the NFL, the talent across teams becomes more even.  And everyone plays roughly the same quality of opponents.  That is what makes stats in the NFL more reliable in terms of judging talent.  That is why I place more value on NFL stats than I do college stats.  With that said, I agree that YPC alone aren't sufficient to judge how good a player is.  My argument for Kamara over Fournette isn't limited to YPC.  Its just the simplest argument I can make that reinforces my viewpoint that there is a significant gap between the two players in terms of quality.  Beyond YPC, Alvin also gained more yards after contact and broke more tackles than Fournette.  This shows that it wasn't just the offensive line giving Alvin room to get all these extra yards.  It was Alvin creating the extra yardage for himself.  I could keep going with more stats.  But the numbers show an overwhelming advantage for Kamara.  And my eye test correlates with the numbers.  I saw very little from Fournette that impressed me when I watched him play.  While Alvin had me wowed almost every week.

[VanS]

6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

And that poll is close. Kamara was more productive and people are stat whores. 90% of the comments in there highlight the issue: They are two completely different players. Fournette is a grind-it-out runner, Kamara is a slasher and a receiver. I prefer grind-it-out runners that can handle a heavy workload and punish a defense. Fournette on the Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Kamara on the Jaguars. That's my argument and I bet if you made that poll, Fournette would be ahead by a mile.

The only reason the poll is close is because Fournette was hyped as the next Adrian Peterson while Alvin was a backup in college.  In Kamara came in with the same hype Christian McCaffrey did and performed like he performed this year, the poll wouldn't be close at all.

There is still some resistance with most people who can't quite believe Kamara is as good as he's been in the NFL because of how little hype he had in college.  More than stats, people are fooled by hype. 

[VanS]

19 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

Because Butch Jones sucks

That's simplifying what happened at Tennessee a lot.  Yes Butch Jones is an idiot.  But there were other factors that led to Kamara falling in the draft.  First of all, Alvin had a pretty good RB playing ahead of him.  Jalen Hurd would have been a top RB prospect himself if he had not gone crazy his junior year and quit the team.  IMO he had Eddie George ability.  And for the first year they were both at Tennessee (2015), Jalen Hurd was the better RB.

For the record, I'm the guy who said before the draft last year that Alvin Kamara should be the first RB taken and that he's a Marshall Faulk clone.  So this isn't coming from a guy who doesn't think the world of Alvin.  I'm just saying that based on what I saw in 2015, Jalen Hurd was the better RB.  Hurd was a 6'4" 240 lbs RB that ran like a 5'11" 220 lbs RB in terms of agility and quickness.  His skillset was freaky.  And if you asked me after the 2015 season which player was better, I would have told you without hesitation that it was Jalen Hurd.  After the 2015 season I thought Alvin Kamara was a 2nd-3rd round pick in value.  I compared him at the time to Devonte Freeman.

Now in 2016, Alvin improved a lot.  He changed the composition of his body.  He became more explosive.  From the first few games, he totally changed my outlook on him.  He went from looking like Devonta Freeman to Marshall Faulk in my eyes.  With the game against Texas A&M being his coming out party.  It was after that game I realized just how special Alvin had become.  In 2016, Hurd also regressed  Whether it was injuries or issues mentally, he was no longer the same athlete.  He wasn't hitting the hole with the same burst.  Butch Jones mistake in 2016 was sticking with Hurd for so long when it was obvious he wasn't the same player anymore while keeping Alvin on the bench when he had improved tremendously.

 

[GamedayGuru]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

So if Kamara was so much better than Fournette as a prospect, why was Fournette taken #4 overall and Kamara taken in the 3rd round?

Fournette is a much more physical runner. Has better top end speed. Has more power. Those three things are undeniable. Kamara is better in space. Has much better route running. Has better hands. Those things are undeniable. Oh, and Fournette is undeniably better in pass protection.

Stop ignoring the fact that the Saints had an insanely better offensive structure around Kamara. I can tell you that if Kamara and Fournette were swapped, Fournette isn't averaging 3.9 and Kamara isn't averaging 6.1. I watched Kamara run against 7 man boxes all day long. I watched Fournette run against 8-9 man boxes all day long. To point at the statistics and ignore their situations is ridiculously unfair. The Saints had a better OL at every position other than maybe Center. The Saints had better skill position players everywhere. The Saints have a HOF QB, the Jaguars are going to try and replace their QB this off-season. The Saints had another RB that had a career year in that offense. The Saints had a deep threat that kept safeties away from being nosy. The Jaguars had undrafted 4.59 Keelan Cole as their deep threat. Safeties were up in the bo every single play.

So let's say, for example, that Kamara is better. You're going to tell me that he's significantly better than Fournette? I'm laughing at you.

 

Look, you nailed the Kamara analysis. You said he was an elite RB and it looks like he's going to be in that ilk. But you're ignoring the situation he was placed in. Looking at YPC as a way to cement your argument that the two aren't close is dumb. Have you watched Jacksonville play this year? He has to churn and scratch and claw for every single yard. Kamara was zipping through wide open spaces in New Orleans. It doesn't discredit Kamara as being good by any measure, but to not see the drastically improved running conditions for Kamara is just...blind stupidity.

 

Royce Freeman, Josh Adams, and 31 other runningbacks had higher YPC averages than Saquon Barkley did this year. Are those guys clearly better than Barkley? Should we put Bryce Love significantly ahead of him as a prospect because of the staggering difference in YPC that each had? Ignoring the schemes and offensive lines that teams put out on the field with the RB each week is asinine and stupid. If I were a huge Josh Adams honk (I'm not), I could throw those stats at the wall and thump my chest. But I wouldn't, because that's stupid. Anyone with eyeballs can see that Barkley is the better player playing behind a bad OL with a bleh supporting cast. Adams is running behind an elite OL that creates massive holes. Anyone with eyeballs can see the vastly different situations both RB's were put in. Anyone with eyeballs can tell that they are, at least, close in ability and talent. I still think Fournette is more talented, but if you think Kamara is slightly ahead, fine. But to act like it's not close gives me a chuckle.

easily a better pass blocker?! Kamara was amazing in pass protection.

[MookieMonstah]

16 hours ago, GamedayGuru said:

easily a better pass blocker?! Kamara was amazing in pass protection.

Yep. Classic case of someone who clearly hasn't watched Kamara. He's assuming Fournette is a better blocker because he's bigger but at the very worst they're equal in pass protection.

[sammymvpknight]

4 hours ago, MookieMonster said:

Yep. Classic case of someone who clearly hasn't watched Kamara. He's assuming Fournette is a better blocker because he's bigger but at the very worst they're equal in pass protection.

Fournette is better at bulldozing guys and has a higher top speed...Kamara has been better at literally every other attribute this season. But it works for the Jags who go out there trying to intimidate people.