MLB Expansion - Who would you protect?

[MightyMouse07]

Stole this idea from AthleticsNation. Here is what the posted said. 

In their first-ever season, the Las Vegas Golden Knights are going to the Stanley Cup Finals. And they're doing it with players that other teams didn't want.

Okay, that's an exaggeration. They're doing it with players that other teams didn't protect in an expansion draft.

I enjoyed Baseball Prospectus' article on what it would take for a Golden Knights-style scenario to unfold in MLB. Their main point: there are more players out there than you'd think who could be stars given the right opportunity.

So here's the question: Let's say an expansion team is coming. You can protect up to 15 players on the 40 man roster. Who do you protect? (To phrase it another way: Who are the possible-stars you wouldn't expose?)

I thought it would be interesting to try and break down who each team would protect and then create a 40 man roster with the left overs. 

As for the A's here is our 40 man roster:

PITCHERS
NO.	NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE	HT	WT	BIRTH PLACE	SALARY
30	Brett Anderson	SP	L	L	30	6-3	230	Midland, TX	N/A
52	Ryan Buchter	RP	L	L	31	6-4	258	Reading, PA	N/A
53	Trevor Cahill	SP	R	R	30	6-4	220	Oceanside, CA	N/A
46	Santiago Casilla	RP	R	R	37	6-0	210	San Cristobal, Dominican Republic	N/A
35	Daniel Coulombe	RP	L	L	28	5-10	190	St. Louis, MO	N/A
66	Ryan Dull	RP	R	R	28	5-11	175	Winston-Salem, NC	N/A
48	Daniel Gossett	SP	R	R	25	6-2	185	Lyman, SC	N/A
44	Chris Hatcher	RP	R	R	33	6-1	200	Kinston, NC	N/A
31	Liam Hendriks	RP	R	R	29	6-0	200	Perth, Australia	N/A
55	Sean Manaea	SP	R	L	26	6-5	245	Valparaiso, IN	N/A
33	Daniel Mengden	SP	R	R	25	6-2	190	Houston, TX	N/A
47	Frankie Montas	SP	R	R	25	6-2	185	Sainagua, Dominican Republic	N/A
15	Emilio Pagan	RP	L	R	27	6-3	210	Simpsonville, SC	N/A
36	Yusmeiro Petit	RP	R	R	33	6-1	225	Maracaibo, Venezuela	N/A
61	Carlos Ramirez	RP	R	R	27	6-5	205	Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic	N/A
39	Blake Treinen	RP	R	R	29	6-5	225	Wichita, KS	N/A
60	Andrew Triggs	SP	R	R	29	6-4	220	Nashville, TN	N/A
62	Lou Trivino	RP	R	R	26	6-5	225	Green Lane, PA	N/A
CATCHERS
NO.	NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE	HT	WT	BIRTH PLACE	SALARY
21	Jonathan Lucroy	C	R	R	31	6-0	200	Eustis, FL	N/A
13	Bruce Maxwell	C	L	R	27	6-1	250	Wiesbaden, Germany	N/A
INFIELDERS
NO.	NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE	HT	WT	BIRTH PLACE	SALARY
1	Franklin Barreto	2B	R	R	22	5-10	190	Caracas, Venezuela	N/A
20	Mark Canha	1B	R	R	29	6-1	200	San Jose, CA	N/A
26	Matt Chapman	3B	R	R	25	6-0	210	Victorville, CA	N/A
8	Jed Lowrie	2B	B	R	34	6-0	180	Salem, OR	N/A
28	Matt Olson	1B	L	R	24	6-5	230	Atlanta, GA	N/A
18	Chad Pinder	SS	R	R	26	6-2	195	Poquoson, VA	N/A
10	Marcus Semien	SS	R	R	27	6-0	195	San Francisco, CA	N/A
OUTFIELDERS
NO.	NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE	HT	WT	BIRTH PLACE	SALARY
2	Khris Davis	LF	R	R	30	5-10	195	Lakewood, CA	N/A
11	Dustin Fowler	CF	L	L	23	6-0	185	Cadwell, GA	N/A
23	Matt Joyce	RF	L	R	33	6-2	205	Tampa, FL	N/A
25	Stephen Piscotty	RF	R	R	27	6-3	210	Pleasanton, CA	N/A
3	Boog Powell	CF	L	L	25	5-10	185	Irvine, CA	N/A

Luckily for the A's a bunch of our talent isn't on the 40 man yet so I am able to keep really only the essentials with a few extras like Piscotty and Trivino. Piscotty is struggling but he is young enough and reasonably cheap enough that I think keeping him will be fine. 

 

Top 3 players not protected:

Lucroy

Joyce

Cahill

 

Who would be kept on these other teams? Who would be left unprotected?

 

[devils1854]

Mike Foltynewicz
Max Fried
Luiz Gohara
AJ Minter
Sean Newcomb
Mike Soroka
Julio Teheran
Dan Winkler
Ozzie Albies
Johan Camargo
Freddie Freeman
Dansby Swanson
Ronald Acuna
Ender Inciarte
Dustin Peterson

 

Lucas Sims
Arodys Vizcaino
Matt Wisler
Preston Tucker
Nick Markakis-2018 FA
Tyler Flowers-2018 FA
Kurt Suzuki-2018 FA

[crab1106]

Luis Severino

Aaron Judge

Gary Sanchez

Giancarlo Stanton

Gleyber Torres

Didi Gregorius 

Aroldis Chapman

Jordan Montgomery 

Justus Sheffield 

Chad Green

Clint Frazier

Miguel Andujar 

Masahiro Tanaka

Greg Bird

Brandon Drury

 

Lost

Gardner, Hicks, Gray, Drob,Holder, Kahnle, McKinney, Wade, T Austin, German, Loaisiga, Abreu and Acevedo.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

For the Brewers, broken out somewhat by category as I wing this:

No Brainers (10/15)
Christian Yelich
Lorenzo Cain
Domingo Santana
Orlando Arcia
Travis Shaw
Josh Hader
Corey Knebel
Jimmy Nelson
Chase Anderson
Brandon Woodruff

All these dudes are core players with favorable team control/contract situations.

Absolutely Everybody Else who Really Matters (12/5)
Eric Thames
Brett Phillips
Mauricio Dubon
Zach Davies
Freddy Peralta

Jesus Aguilar
Manny Pina
Junior Guerra
Taylor Williams
Jeremy Jeffress
Jacob Nottingham
Jacob Barnes

I need to cut 7 guys. Going with older players first - Guerra, Pina, and Aguilar are good players now, but replaceable and older. Aguilar was a pinch hitter until Thames got hurt, Guerra's stuff comes and goes, and Pina can't really hit. Defensive catchers aren't that hard to find. I'm weighing 2+ years of God mode Jeremy Jeffress versus 6 years of Taylor Williams, who is a power bullpen arm versus 6+ years of Freddy Peralta, who might project to be a power BP arm or a middle of the rotation guy. I'm assuming there will be lots of power BP guys who don't get protected, so the potential starter gets saved.

That leaves 2. I'll risk Barnes and Nottingham. Nottingham is a questionable defensive catcher and Barnes has struggled this year, so we might be able to keep him. These 2 are risky though, especially Barnes.

 

Worth noting that if the MLB instituted this, there'd be a ton of trades involving the 45/50 FV prospects I kept on the list to clear spots.

[THE DUKE]

For the Reds (helps that Senzel isn't on the 40 man yet):

Luis Castillo
Amir Garrett
Raisel Iglesias
Tyler Mahle
Jared Hughes
David Hernandez
Michael Lorenzen
Tucker Barnhart
Joey Votto
Scooter Gennett
Eugenio Suarez
Jose Peraza (somebody has to play SS)
Shed Long
Jesse Winker
Robert Stephenson

Man, the Reds 40 man is bad.  I choose Robert Stephenson over Sal Romano (limited upside) and Anthony Desclafani (always hurt).  I would pray for them to take Homer Bailey.  Honestly wouldn't care that much if any of Duvall, Schebler, or Hamilton got taken.  None of them can be consistent.

[The Gnat]

Hmm... for the Twins:

Protect:
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Trevor Hildenberger
Taylor Rogers
Jorge Polanco
Byron Buxton
Miguel Sano
Eddie Rosario
Stephen Gonslaves
Max Kepler
Fernando Romero
Mitch Garver
Adalberto Mejia
Brian Dozier
Allan Busenitz

It's tough for those last few spots, how many relief pitchers do I really want to protect. If I were to project, I think that Eduardo Escobar would be the player taken off of the Twins. I'm almost be more apt to protect him than Brian Dozier, though it is close. Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, or Ervin Santana/Lance Lynn might be options that the Vikings would lose as well. I almost think that Trevor May should maybe be on there over Busenitz, but Busenitz looked good up in the majors last year.

 

[CWood21]

Kinda tough for the Cardinals.  I'd protect...
Alex Reyes
Jordan Hicks
Jack Flaherty
Carlos Martinez
Luke Weaver
Michael Wacha
Carson Kelly
Yadier Molina
Paul DeJong
Tommy Pham
Marcel Ozuna

Damn we have a LOT of young pitching to protect.  That's 11 right there.  That next four would probably consist of some combination of Tyler O'Neill, Oscar Mercado, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez, Matt Carpenter, Miles Mikolas, and Dominic Leone.

[mse326]

For the Phillies

Position players
1. Odubel Herrera
2. Rhys Hoskins
3. Scott Kingery
4. Cesar Hernandez
5. Jorge Alfaro
6. Aaron Altherr
7. Nick Williams
8. JP Crawford
9. Dylan Cozens
 

Pitchers
1. Aaron Nola
2. Vince Velasquez
3. Victor Arano
4. Nick Pivetta
5. Seranthony Dominguez

The last would either be Santana, Roman Quin, Elfin or Arrietta. I can't decide which.

[playmaker8267]

Great topic. For the Red Sox:
No brainers: (6)
SS Xander Bogaerts
LHP Chris Sale
OF Mookie Betts
OF Andrew Benintendi
3B Rafael Devers
OF J.D. Martinez

Hesitated for half a second to weigh their contract situation: (6)
RHP Craig Kimbrel
LHP David Price
RHP Rick Porcello
RHP Joe Kelly
2B Dustin Pedroia
C Christian Vazquez

The bubble: (3)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
IF/OF Blake Swihart
1B Mitch Moreland

 

Notables exposed to expansion draft:

OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
LHP Drew Pomeranz
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Hector Velazquez
IF Eduardo Nunez
C Sandy Leon
RHP Tyler Thornburg

[mission27]

Hmmm... for the Yankees, more or less in order... 

1. Aaron Judge
2. Gleyber Torres
3. Luis Severino
4. Gary Sanchez
5. Miguel Andujar
6. Didi Gregorius 
7. Jordan Montgomery 
8. Greg Bird
9. Tyler Austin
10. Aaron Hicks
11. Chad Green
12. Clint Frazier
13. Albert Abreu 
14. Brandon Drury 
15. Tommy Khanle  

There are a few other guys like Domingo Acevedo, Billy McKinney, Thairo Estrada, and maybe Betances you could make an argument for.  Would hate to lose Gardner but feel like he's a less valuable asset than the guys above and we have so much depth in the outfield.  Stanton, Tanaka, etc. are probably not viable options for an expansion team.  Sonny Gray is just such a mess rn.

[mission27]

13 hours ago, crab1106 said:

Luis Severino

Aaron Judge

Gary Sanchez

Giancarlo Stanton

Gleyber Torres

Didi Gregorius 

Aroldis Chapman

Jordan Montgomery 

Justus Sheffield 

Chad Green

Clint Frazier

Miguel Andujar 

Masahiro Tanaka

Greg Bird

Brandon Drury

 

Lost

Gardner, Hicks, Gray, Drob,Holder, Kahnle, McKinney, Wade, T Austin, German, Loaisiga, Abreu and Acevedo.

 

Just a minor point, Justus is not on the 40 man roster yet I don't think.

[crab1106]

3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Just a minor point, Justus is not on the 40 man roster yet I don't think.

Good call, probably keep Gray at that point for upside.

[mission27]

When the Rays and Diamondbacks entered the league in 1997, existing teams could protect 15 players in their organizations. They were required to use spots on players with no-trade clauses, while young players who had neither debuted in the majors, nor spent more than three or four years in the minors (depending on the age at which they were signed) were exempt from the whole process, as were players in the final year of their contracts.

That would change things quite a bit for the Yankees....

So we would HAVE to protect the following players:

1. Giancarlo Stanton

2. Masahiro Tanaka

3. Jacoby Ellsbury 

4. Aroldis Chapman

My guess is they would just release Ellsbury at that point to save a spot and eat his contract.  Then Giancarlo, Tanaka, and Aroldis take the spot of my bottom three.  Abreu is exempt anyway since he hasn't made his MLB debut.  Cashman might decide to keep Drury over Austin ... who knows.

 

[malibuspeedrace]

For the Indians

1. Cody Allen
2. Trevor Bauer
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Mike Clevinger
5. Corey Kluber
6. Andrew Miller
7. Francisco Mejia
8. Francisco Lindor
9. Jose Ramirez
10. Michael Brantley
11. Bradley Zimmer
12. Lonnie Chisenhall
13. Greg Allen
14. Yu Chang
15. Yan Gomes

Would mean Roberto Perez, Yonder Alonso, Erik Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, Yandy Diaz...All are available

[Spartica4Real]

No brainers (8/15):

Jose Altuve

Carlos Correa

George Springer

Alex Bregman

Justin Verlander

Gerrit Cole

Lance McCullers Jr

Chris Devenski

Had to think about it a bit, whether due to contract or otherwise:

Ken Giles (not the most confident in him as a closer, but we don't have an adequate replacement and an expansion team would jump at the chance for a Giles)

Max Stassi (future at catcher, had to think for a second but he's already been fantastic this year and we can afford to leave McCann unprotected due to him)

Josh Reddick (has one of our bigger contracts but he's too good of a player to let go and we can afford it just fine. Tucker isn't ready so if we let him go his replacement would be AAAA players)

Brad Peacock (under contract for a while, flexible and can be a starter or bullpen guy. Will need him since I'm leaving Keuchel unprotected)

Yuli Gurriel (good + under contract for a while)

Charlie Morton (if we let both him and Keuchel go then our rotation for the current year would be in trouble, even though they're both expiring we need to protect one of them)

Collin McHugh (Protecting him over Keuchel because he has one more year on his deal)

 

Best players left up would be Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, and Brian McCann. Left them unprotected because they're all on their last year under contract and have the depth to withstand the blow if we lose them. if Keuchel is taken we can slot McHugh into the rotation for this year and next until Whitley is ready. Keuchel is likely to leave anyways as he's gonna want a payday and we're not giving it to him. Marwin is important due to his flexibility and would hurt our team this year if taken, but it was better than losing a starter who we have more years of control of like Gurriel. McCann is still effective but older and expiring, and Stassi is more than ready to step in.