Mayweather vs McGregor

[BayRaider]

20 minutes ago, PAW said:

Not when it's basically a lock. There is a reason none of the big money is going on McGregor even though you'll get a great return-no one actually thinks he is going to win so you'd be throwing money away. An 18% return on say 5% risk (which I think is probably closer to 1%) is a good return. It's equivalent to betting huge on the Pats over the Browns. Yea the return sucks but you're basically guaranteed the return where as betting on a different game the return is far better but you have a 45% chance of losing the bet (obviously depending on matchup, line, Etc just throwing out generic number). 

I don't care how much of a lock anyone is, betting to win 18% of your bet is just poor poor money and bankroll management. You think any professional bettor would ever tell you to bet a large amount of money for a 18% reward? Of course not. Sports Betting is literally all about value. Just like Poker is about betting Value Hands. Just like Fantasy Football Leage Winners win by getting Value Picks.

The best bet to make in this fight is Mayweather via Inside the Distance -158. This would pay you 62% of what you bet and it will almost certainly happen. Very good value. I don't see McGregor lasting all twelve. He's never been a cardio machine by any means. After the 9th Round, I'm expecting his corner to throw in the towel even if McGregor doesn't want to.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

He will have no say in that. He'll be so exhausted he probably won't realize what's going on. 

I have wondered about his cardio. Yes the rounds are shorter but there are 12 of them. Surprised a Floyd decision victory has a +240 or so on it. Sounds like easy money

[eagles101]

36 minutes ago, PAW said:

Not when it's basically a lock. There is a reason none of the big money is going on McGregor even though you'll get a great return-no one actually thinks he is going to win so you'd be throwing money away. An 18% return on say 5% risk (which I think is probably closer to 1%) is a good return. It's equivalent to betting huge on the Pats over the Browns. Yea the return sucks but you're basically guaranteed the return where as betting on a different game the return is far better but you have a 45% chance of losing the bet (obviously depending on matchup, line, Etc just throwing out generic number). 

Still just awfully dumb to put a bet on it. You have to risk a huge sum of money for it to even be worth it. Risking 100 bucks for 18 dollars is just silly and the more money you put into it the sillier it gets. Like if i put 100,000 on flyod and he wins i get 18,000....which is a lot of money for someone who cant bet 100,000 on a fight. 

[BayRaider]

13 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I have wondered about his cardio. Yes the rounds are shorter but there are 12 of them. Surprised a Floyd decision victory has a +240 or so on it. Sounds like easy money

Classic trap line. Mayweather wins inside the distance. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

14 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

I think plenty of the boxing world (fans and pros) will look back at this as a negative for Mayweather's legacy.

There's no doubting his greatness, but his obsession with his own legacy just makes this fight weird for me (again, assuming he doesn't have money problems), because the boxing purists are always going to come back to this and talk about how much of a clown show it was.

I'm just saying for a guy that says he's the best ever, and wants to be remembered as the best ever, taking this fight doesn't make any sense outside of just pure $$$ and nothing else.

 

That said, it's happening, and I just want to see fireworks.

 

How hilarious would it be if McGregor knocked him out in some weird/controversial way like the Mayweather Ortiz thing. I just want to see something crazy.

As I said, this is nothing but a money grab. Boxing folks won't kill him for this fight.... Unless he loses. His legacy is set. He's an ATG, legit top 20-25 fighter of all time. No boxing historian thinks of him as "TBE." The 50-0 storyline is good and all but the opinion of him doesn't change with a win over a novice like McGregor. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I have wondered about his cardio. Yes the rounds are shorter but there are 12 of them. Surprised a Floyd decision victory has a +240 or so on it. Sounds like easy money

I had to have a double take when I first saw that. Couldn't believe those odds but they are clearly betting on a corner or ref stoppage. 

His awkwardness will be hard for Floyd to time early on. So as Paulie mentioned, be thinks Floyd will just take the fight to McGregor early on to offset that. People think McGregor should just swarm him like Maidana, but that's not his style. His best bet is catching Floyd lunging in and shooting off his counter left. I wonder how much damage the body jab will do to McGregor. I don't think he's ever seen that in MMA before. 

[jrry32]

10 hours ago, texans_uk said:

You could argue that McGregor having no boxing tape really is probably a positive for him, Floyd can't be sure of what his tactics will be. 

Floyd will do what he always does. Play it safe the first 2-4 rounds and then embarrass the other fighter the rest of the fight.

4 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Yes it is dumb betting huge amounts on Mayweather because you only win 18% of what you bet. That's terrible value and overall terrible money management. 

Do you invest in stocks? An 18% return on a small risk is a great return.

[Bednarik60]

6 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I have wondered about his cardio. Yes the rounds are shorter but there are 12 of them. Surprised a Floyd decision victory has a +240 or so on it. Sounds like easy money

But you are not expending energy defending take downs/grappling, kicks, clenches against the cage etc. or are you expending energy kicking or trying take downs/ grappling.

[BayRaider]

3 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Floyd will do what he always does. Play it safe the first 2-4 rounds and then embarrass the other fighter the rest of the fight.

Do you invest in stocks? An 18% return on a small risk is a great return.

Terrible comparison.. your stock investment isn't a gameble of lose everything or 18% gain over night. If that was the case nobody would invest 8n stocks. 

[Bednarik60]

McGregor is so much bigger then Floyd. Like you can tell everything is bigger, Conor bone structure for a 154 lb dude is insane. Dem Irish genetics! 

[Bednarik60]

Its going to be amazing to see the look on Floyd face when he goes sideways into Philly shell stance and McGregor goes sideways to in a karate/TKD stance. Be the first time Floyd has ever seen that. Cant wait. 

[PAW]

So when Conor gets embarrassed tonight, what happens to his reputation and marketability? 

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Terrible comparison.. your stock investment isn't a gameble of lose everything or 18% gain over night. If that was the case nobody would invest 8n stocks. 

There is absolutely a risk you could lose everything. 

[11sanchez11]

1 hour ago, Bednarik60 said:

McGregor is so much bigger then Floyd. Like you can tell everything is bigger, Conor bone structure for a 154 lb dude is insane. Dem Irish genetics! 

are you talking about weighins? cause that is the only time he is 154, he will probably weigh 168-172 in the ring.

[big poppa pump]

48 minutes ago, PAW said:

So when Conor gets embarrassed tonight, what happens to his reputation and marketability? 

Probably nothing.  He goes back to mma, and continues to be their biggest star.  I am not a huge fan of his, but he is a marketing genius.  A loss to an all time great in a different sport probably won't do a thing to his marketability.