NFL General Random Thoughts Thread

[El Ramster]

Just now, TheRealMcCoy said:

That's probably true about the receivers in 2016. Adding the guys you have since then certainly helps, but I've always thought Goff isn't as good as you make him out to be. 

 

That's because you're heavily influenced by the 2 games against your eagles. Which is fair.

And please don't come at me with the "I've seen plenty of his games". 

[TheRealMcCoy]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

6 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

Ravens aren't the #1 defense 

IIRC we were until week 17, where the Bears passed us in PPG. Or maybe I'm thinking Yards per Game. I went back and looked after I posted that and saw we're now #2

Total yards and points per game isn't the greatest way to judge a defense.

Look at DVOA where the Bears are 1st with -25.6% and the next closest is the Bills and Ravens with -14.5% and -13.1% respectively

Chicago blew every other defense out of the water this year. They were the clear #1.

If DVOA isn't enough, then look at Defensive Expected Points Added too.

Bears were all up there by their lonesome.

[TheRealMcCoy]

5 minutes ago, El ramster said:

6 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

That's probably true about the receivers in 2016. Adding the guys you have since then certainly helps, but I've always thought Goff isn't as good as you make him out to be. 

That's because you're heavily influenced by the 2 games against your eagles. Which is fair.

And please don't come at me with the "I've seen plenty of his games". 

Nah man... I like him and Wentz, but they've both become overrated, especially by our fan bases.

[FrantikRam]

On 1/10/2019 at 11:38 AM, EL Guapo said:

The Giants played eight games against playoff teams, probably on the high end. The NFC East probably didn't much credit 

 

That will be the case for most bad teams that play in a division with two playoff teams.

 

Take the Niners, Cardinals, Raiders and Broncos:

 

Each had five games against three of the top four teams in the NFL (Rams, Chiefs, Chargers) - as well as the Seahawks. The Niners and Cardinals also had to play the Bears, another great team - and the Raiders and Broncos had to play the Ravens.

 

What's amazing is that the Rams won't be on these toughest schedule lists because of playing the Niners and Cardinals four times as well as the Raiders once....but we played against 7 playoff teams. The only NFC playoff team we didn't play during the regular season was the Cowboys, and we drew the Chiefs and Chargers as well.

[N4L]

4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Neither of those statements are remotely true. You can keep saying it, but it's about as meaningful as the guy who keeps saying that Brady is a system QB who would fail outside of NE. Actually, Nick Mullens threw the ball to wide open WRs more than any other QB in the NFL (outside of Brock Osweiler). If you only want to talk about starting QBs, Patrick Mahomes was #1.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

That is somewhat accurate. But Goff's numbers are on par with Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins. Last I checked, almost nobody complains that Tom Brady throws the ball to too many open receivers. Instead, people say that he's great at reading defenses.

You keep linking this without providing context. I don't understand how that link is supposed to help your argument. Please elaborate 

Sort that by TT (time to throw) Goff is 6th. The 5 guys ahead of him are:

Josh allen

Lamar Jackson

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

Aaron Rodgers

So basically, the four most mobile QBs in the NFL plus Rodgers (who held the ball waaaay to much this year) are the only guys who had the ball in their hands longer on any given passing play. 

This doesn't take into account the fact that the eye test showed me that goff often threw the ball without having to move within the pocket and rarely had anyone within 2-3 yards of him in any direction. Id love to see a stat 'percentage of throws with a clean pocket' or something, because it happens frequently. He doesn't have to move off of his spot very often and that makes him comfortable.

 

Now lets look at the 'AGG%' - aggressive percentage where throws came with a defender within one yard of a receiver. 

Goff had the 8th lowest AGG%, meaning that only 7 guys who qualified threw the ball to covered WRs less.

I am not saying that Goff never throws into tight coverage or that he is unable to make throws only the elite QBs can make. I am also not faulting him for throwing to open WRs, as it takes good anticipation, vision, etc but I am simply saying that he is a young QB who has played extremely well when he is dealt a good hand, but I am unsure of his ability to sustain success when the deck is stacked against him, because it hasn't happened all that often since McVay took over. The only games where he gets pressured are the only games he has played poorly. 

Honestly, Goff is who the rams drafted Bradford to be. He has the physical tools you look for and can make throws/find open guys when he is given time in the pocket.

 

My statement was that goff is rarely pressured AND throws to more open WRs than anyone else. Its the combination of both that Goff gets more than anyone else in the NFL. 

[jrry32]

12 minutes ago, N4L said:

You keep linking this without providing context. I don't understand how that link is supposed to help your argument. Please elaborate 

Sort that by TT (time to throw) Goff is 6th. The 5 guys ahead of him are:

Josh allen

Lamar Jackson

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

Aaron Rodgers

So basically, the four most mobile QBs in the NFL plus Rodgers (who held the ball waaaay to much this year) are the only guys who had the ball in their hands longer on any given passing play. 

This doesn't take into account the fact that the eye test showed me that goff often threw the ball without having to move within the pocket and rarely had anyone within 2-3 yards of him in any direction. Id love to see a stat 'percentage of throws with a clean pocket' or something, because it happens frequently. He doesn't have to move off of his spot very often and that makes him comfortable.

 

Now lets look at the 'AGG%' - aggressive percentage where throws came with a defender within one yard of a receiver. 

Goff had the 8th lowest AGG%, meaning that only 7 guys who qualified threw the ball to covered WRs less.

I am not saying that Goff never throws into tight coverage or that he is unable to make throws only the elite QBs can make. I am also not faulting him for throwing to open WRs, as it takes good anticipation, vision, etc but I am simply saying that he is a young QB who has played extremely well when he is dealt a good hand, but I am unsure of his ability to sustain success when the deck is stacked against him, because it hasn't happened all that often since McVay took over. The only games where he gets pressured are the only games he has played poorly. 

Honestly, Goff is who the rams drafted Bradford to be. He has the physical tools you look for and can make throws/find open guys when he is given time in the pocket.

 

My statement was that goff is rarely pressured AND throws to more open WRs than anyone else. Its the combination of both that Goff gets more than anyone else in the NFL. 

I'm not going to waste a lot of time because you are backpedaling. The link clearly shows Goff does not throw to more open WRs than anyone else. You also have provided no backing for your claim that Goff is rarely pressured. Moreover, you've provided no backing to your new claim that, "[t]he only games where he gets pressured are the only games he has played poorly." He got pressured a lot against the Chiefs, yet he lit them up.

Finally, your claims about time to throw are similarly flawed. The Rams use play-action passing significantly more than any other team. Play-action passing plays are necessarily longer-developing plays. It is no surprise that Goff holds the ball longer when that is the design of the offense. Also, your statements don't work together. You can't now claim it's a combination of both after I disproved your assertion.

[Habbsawce]

1 hour ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

Total yards and points per game isn't the greatest way to judge a defense.

Look at DVOA where the Bears are 1st with -25.6% and the next closest is the Bills and Ravens with -14.5% and -13.1% respectively

Chicago blew every other defense out of the water this year. They were the clear #1.

If DVOA isn't enough, then look at Defensive Expected Points Added too.

Bears were all up there by their lonesome.

This really shows KC's dominance at defensive futility. 

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

That's probably true about the receivers in 2016. Adding the guys you have since then certainly helps, but I've always thought Goff isn't as good as you make him out to be. 

Cool. You're not alone. People have doubted Goff and will continue to doubt him. A lot of people were forced to eat crow, and that isn't something people like to do. I've never been afraid to be bold on Goff, and he keeps rewarding me for it.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

Total yards and points per game isn't the greatest way to judge a defense.

Look at DVOA where the Bears are 1st with -25.6% and the next closest is the Bills and Ravens with -14.5% and -13.1% respectively

Chicago blew every other defense out of the water this year. They were the clear #1.

If DVOA isn't enough, then look at Defensive Expected Points Added too.

Bears were all up there by their lonesome.

I know it's not, but when's the last time you heard some random person say "X team is the #1 defense!" and assume they're talking about DVOA? For me - never. I always assume people are either talking PPG or YPG unless they specify otherwise. And trust me, I've been trying my best to hype the DVOA train as much as I can this season.

[pigsooie5]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

IIRC we were until week 17, where the Bears passed us in PPG. Or maybe I'm thinking Yards per Game. I went back and looked after I posted that and saw we're now #2

Good try though. Ravens D wouldn’t hold a candle to the Bears regardless of any numbers.

[N4L]

18 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'm not going to waste a lot of time because you are backpedaling. The link clearly shows Goff does not throw to more open WRs than anyone else. You also have provided no backing for your claim that Goff is rarely pressured.

No backpedaling from me. I stand by my statement that he is BOTH pressured less AND throws to wide open WRs more than anyone else. Its the combination of the two. That was my original statement that sparked this discussion. 

21 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Moreover, you've provided no backing to your new claim that, "[t]he only games where he gets pressured are the only games he has played poorly." He got pressured a lot against the Chiefs, yet he lit them up.

Fair enough. He also turned the ball over a few times in that game IIRC

22 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Finally, your claims about time to throw are similarly flawed. The Rams use play-action passing significantly more than any other team. Play-action passing plays are necessarily longer-developing plays. It is no surprise that Goff holds the ball longer when that is the design of the offense. 

I was simply using the link you provided. All of the stats that either of us can use are flawed metrics. Sometimes you have let your eyes see what there is to be seen. 

You conveniently ignored the notion that Goff often throws the ball without having to move within the pocket. That is a luxury that most NFL qbs don't have. Yes, I don't have 'stats' to back that up, its just what Ive seen with my eyes. 

27 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Also, your statements don't work together. You can't now claim it's a combination of both after I disproved your assertion.

Agree to disagree I guess. 

[Jakuvious]

AGG% is quickly becoming my least favorite stat. All it winds up being used as is a way to criticize QBs that do a great job of presnap and postsnap reads. If a defender is within 1 yard of the WR, you generally shouldn't be throwing to that WR.

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

AGG% is quickly becoming my least favorite stat. All it winds up being used as is a way to criticize QBs that do a great job of presnap and postsnap reads. If a defender is within 1 yard of the WR, you generally shouldn't be throwing to that WR.

It also punishes QBs who don't have contested-catch WRs. The Rams have guys who are proficient route runners. They don't really have guys who win jump balls. It makes perfect sense to try Alshon Jeffery 1 on 1 even if he's well-covered. The same is not true of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But it's also easier for Woods and Cooks to consistently separate. Seems like a stat that needs some context.

18 minutes ago, N4L said:

No backpedaling from me. I stand by my statement that he is BOTH pressured less AND throws to wide open WRs more than anyone else. Its the combination of the two. That was my original statement that sparked this discussion. 

Your original statement didn't include both and still doesn't make sense when you try to combine it. Moreover, you still haven't provided any evidence backing your assertions.

Quote

Fair enough. He also turned the ball over a few times in that game IIRC

He lost two fumbles. He also accounted for 400+ yards of offense and 5 TDs.

Quote

I was simply using the link you provided. All of the stats that either of us can use are flawed metrics. Sometimes you have let your eyes see what there is to be seen. 

Your eyes just happen to see things that are generally disadvantageous to the Rams. I wonder if that's colored at all by you rooting for a rival.

Quote

You conveniently ignored the notion that Goff often throws the ball without having to move within the pocket. That is a luxury that most NFL qbs don't have. Yes, I don't have 'stats' to back that up, its just what Ive seen with my eyes. 

I "conveniently" ignored it because there's no way for me to prove what you're saying is wrong. Goff is an active QB in the pocket. That's what my eyes have told me since his Cal days.

[pwny]

13 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

AGG% is quickly becoming my least favorite stat. All it winds up being used as is a way to criticize QBs that do a great job of presnap and postsnap reads. If a defender is within 1 yard of the WR, you generally shouldn't be throwing to that WR.

People gotta stop misusing it. It just means that the receiver that is being thrown to is open. It doesn’t show that the scheme is getting every receiver open, if the receivers are great at separating, or if the QB is just making great reads, or tons of other stuff. The only thing it should be used for is a checkbox to note that things up until the ball releases the QBs hands are generally fine or generally not fine.

If a guy is always throwing to open receivers but has a terrible completion percentage or an awful INT%, then you can actually cite accuracy issues or whatever rather than a lack of opportunities for completions. But beyond that, all this other reading into it is just bad usage. 

EDIT: a couple other things that can be big factors in the agg% being what it is; a well protected QB having more time to find an open target, a QB who is risk adverse, or receivers who are good at contested catches. 

[jrry32]

Just now, pwny said:

People gotta stop misusing it. It just means that the receiver that is being thrown to is open. It doesn’t show that the scheme is getting every receiver open, if the receivers are great at separating, or if the QB is just making great reads, or tons of other stuff. The only thing it should be used for is a checkbox to note that things up until the ball releases the QBs hands are generally fine or generally not fine.

If a guy is always throwing to open receivers but has a terrible completion percentage or an awful INT%, then you can actually cite accuracy issues or whatever rather than a lack of opportunities for completions. But beyond that, all this other reading into it is just bad usage. 

Cough Josh Allen Cough