ramssuperbowl99 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 57 minutes ago, GmenSeattle said: For those who think there won't be a labor dispute...http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6242/manny-machado The players should just commit to sitting out the start of the regular season as soon as the CBA expires at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, GmenSeattle said: For those who think there won't be a labor dispute...http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6242/manny-machado Let me see if I've got this right. It's kind of a small blurb of news..... Since the NYY have a price / contract length they're willing to offer Machado (and though its not stated, apparently are holding to it) and arent "driving the market" for the other teams to up their offers - that's collusion? Who sets the market anyway? A players agent? Of those dolling out the cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GmenSeattle Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Leader said: Let me see if I've got this right. It's kind of a small blurb of news..... Since the NYY have a price / contract length they're willing to offer Machado (and though its not stated, apparently are holding to it) and arent "driving the market" for the other teams to up their offers - that's collusion? Who sets the market anyway? A players agent? Of those dolling out the cash? Well, the players agent attempts to set the market based on historical contracts, player performance, etc...teams set the market based on budgets, the thing is teams profits are going up and they're spending less...so why wouldn't players expect to get paid more? Better yet...based on WHAT are Harper/Machado not worth $300 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, GmenSeattle said: Well, the players agent attempts to set the market based on historical contracts, player performance, etc...teams set the market based on budgets, the thing is teams profits are going up and they're spending less...so why wouldn't players expect to get paid more? Better yet...based on WHAT are Harper/Machado not worth $300 million? All due respect - Harper/Machado are worth what the market will bear. Period. What competition for their services will return. What? Are you proposing they should be entitled to some fixed number? Based on what (?) and from what team? As well - who's to say what they actually are (or will be) offered - over what length of contract? Media reports? Agent releases? You seem to have bitten the hook on what they're worth (300M) - and that they're not getting it - again, based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Leader said: All due respect - Harper/Machado are worth what the market will bear. Period. What competition for their services will return. What? Are you proposing they should be entitled to some fixed number? Based on what (?) and from what team? As well - who's to say what they actually are (or will be) offered - over what length of contract? Media reports? Agent releases? You seem to have bitten the hook on what they're worth (300M) - and that they're not getting it - again, based on what? The problem is that Manny Machado has been in the majors since 2012 and has only made like ~35 million total in his career despite being a stud that entire time. Players agreed to a pay system that artificially kept salaries low during the beginning of careers in order to maximize veterans salaries. Teams have broken that deal by refusing to give out large money deals once players reach that point. If they don’t want to shell out huge long-term deals, the entire process needs to be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsoxsuck05 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The sport is not healthy when there is little interest in two top 10 players smack in the middle of their prime for only the price of money. It’s an embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 At&t park is now Oracle park. Biggest news to come out of SF regarding the Giants all off season At least I like the name better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, winitall said: The problem is that Manny Machado has been in the majors since 2012 and has only made like ~35 million total in his career despite being a stud that entire time. Players agreed to a pay system that artificially kept salaries low during the beginning of careers in order to maximize veterans salaries. Teams have broken that deal by refusing to give out large money deals once players reach that point. If they don’t want to shell out huge long-term deals, the entire process needs to be changed. I dont understand your logic. If Machado was a first round draft pick in the NFL and the team played out the fifth year option - he'd have hit FA in 2017 - and "cashed in" based on his performance - and again (that pesky thing that nobody around here wants to acknowledge.....) based on those teams positioned to pay him based on their own roster commitments and available space under the salary cap. And dont forget - Machado's had knee surgery on both knees causing him to miss considerable time. You're all presuming the guys not gonna make a mint of money - based on what? Some team hasnt thrown cash at this feet (?) instead of negotiating with him (?) again based on their current roster / cap situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fresh Prince Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 So teams arnt stupid enough to offer a player a 10 year 300 million contract and somehow that's bad for the sport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingo18287 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Grandal to the Brewers on a 1year deal according to Ken Rosenthal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, Fresh Prince said: So teams arnt stupid enough to offer a player a 10 year 300 million contract and somehow that's bad for the sport? Considering the amount of money said player(s) bring to the owners...yes. Absolutely, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devils1854 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I honestly dont think that money is the issue. Its the length of the deals. We have seen Josh Donaldson set the record for a one year deal at 23 mil. Gandal just got over 18 mil for a one year deal. Old McCutchen just got 50 for 3 years. Patrick Corbin just got 22.5 mil for 6 years as a 29 year old. Teams are giving out money. Its just they dont want the years since it never works out...Pujols, Cabrera, A-Rod, Cano, Prince Fielder, Heyward. How many teams do you think would offer Harper, if it would take somewhere around 5 years/175 mil? I think it would be in the double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. bDoDDleS Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, devils1854 said: I honestly dont think that money is the issue. Its the length of the deals. We have seen Josh Donaldson set the record for a one year deal at 23 mil. Gandal just got over 18 mil for a one year deal. Old McCutchen just got 50 for 3 years. Patrick Corbin just got 22.5 mil for 6 years as a 29 year old. Teams are giving out money. Its just they dont want the years since it never works out...Pujols, Cabrera, A-Rod, Cano, Prince Fielder, Heyward. How many teams do you think would offer Harper, if it would take somewhere around 5 years/175 mil? I think it would be in the double digits. Exactly. They might be 26 now, but in year 6-10 they will be 32-36 and we've seen how great hitters like Pujols and Cabrera have aged and their contracts have been a hinderance after the first few years of the deal. Harper with injury concerns too, he might not age gracefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 hours ago, devils1854 said: I honestly dont think that money is the issue. Its the length of the deals. We have seen Josh Donaldson set the record for a one year deal at 23 mil. Gandal just got over 18 mil for a one year deal. Old McCutchen just got 50 for 3 years. Patrick Corbin just got 22.5 mil for 6 years as a 29 year old. Teams are giving out money. Its just they dont want the years since it never works out...Pujols, Cabrera, A-Rod, Cano, Prince Fielder, Heyward. How many teams do you think would offer Harper, if it would take somewhere around 5 years/175 mil? I think it would be in the double digits. Historically, players have been willing to play at relative discounts in the first years of a deal to have longer term security. Saying teams aren't giving out the years like they used to is the same as saying teams aren't giving out money like they used to. Grandal is a 3 win catcher, who should be getting way more than $18.25MM on the open market for one year. You can knock projection systems all you want, but Donaldson is going to be a 4 or 5 win player, maybe the uncertainty knocks that payday down a little bit, but saying he got $23M on a 1 year deal like it's a boon for the players is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 hours ago, Leader said: You seem to have bitten the hook on what they're worth (300M) - and that they're not getting it - again, based on what? A reasonable projection of their value over 10 years. Machado is likely to average about 5 WAR/year through his prime (we'll call that age 30, which is actually an early start to a decline phase compared to most players). Based on historic $/WAR prices (again, I'll make a concession here and go $9MM), without even projecting inflation, Machado would be worth the following: 2019 - 5 WAR - $45MM 2020 - 5 WAR - $45MM 2021 - 5 WAR - $45MM 2022 - 5 WAR - $45MM 2023 - 4.5 WAR - $40.5MM 2024- 4 WAR - $36MM 2025 - 3.5 WAR - $31.5MM 2026 - 3 WAR - $27MM 2027 - 2.5 WAR - $22.5MM 2028 - 2 WAR - $18MM Total - 10 years - 39.5 WAR - $355MM This is easy, back of the envelop math based on player aging and market rates for production, and I was pessimistic throughout this and still got that signing Machado to a 10 year, $300MM deal would be giving the team about a 15% discount from market price. The reality is the discount would be worth more than that, and the fact that his market may not even get there is a bad joke. Don't take this personally, but your posts make it abundantly clear that you don't understand how to evaluate players in the baseball market. I'd recommend taking a stroll through the Fangraphs glossary: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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