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Will the QB market crash eventually?


Elky

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Richard Sherman recently made some comments on QBs being unstoppable due to the rule changes: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24895392/richard-sherman-san-francisco-49ers-rule-tweaks-make-quarterbacks-unstoppable

Now I highly doubt we're going to see 7 5k passers, but Sherman makes a good point that QBs now put up what many considered in the past to be Madden numbers. Because the position looks like it's becoming more of plug and play nowadays, is it possible that the market crashes? To me, I'd rather invest more in getting quality offensive lineman, since good ones are becoming harder to find.

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The market will never crash as long as the money keeps pouring in. They changed the rules to add more points to the score, and QB's are vital piece to the puzzle. Scoring goes up, viewership goes up, caps go up, and QB's payscale goes up. Rinse repeat. The real problem is when do you stop making the game so QB friendly before games start looking ridiculous and the entertainment value begins to decline.

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8 minutes ago, NJerseypaint said:

The market will never crash as long as the money keeps pouring in. They changed the rules to add more points to the score, and QB's are vital piece to the puzzle. Scoring goes up, viewership goes up, caps go up, and QB's payscale goes up. Rinse repeat. The real problem is when do you stop making the game so QB friendly before games start looking ridiculous and the entertainment value begins to decline.

Well recently we've seen Nick Foles win Super Bowl MVP in a Super Bowl that almost saw Blake Bortles as his opponent. Zombie Peyton won a Super Bowl as well. I'm wondering if a GM will eventually say "Why should we devote all this cap room for an over-saturated position?".

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3 minutes ago, Elky said:

Well recently we've seen Nick Foles win Super Bowl MVP in a Super Bowl that almost saw Blake Bortles start. Zombie Peyton won a Super Bowl as well. I'm wondering if a GM will eventually say "Why should we devote all this cap room for an over-saturated position?".

Because QBs win games and only a handful can be relied on every week against any opponent - even in today's environment. They're paying for consistency.

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No, not at all. The position is absolutely not plug and play. You point to an aging Peyton and Foles winning superbowls, but that's not the first time that kind of stint has happened. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won 2 out of 3 superbowls around the turn of the millennia, but that didn't change anything because like the 8 superbowls before them and the 12 superbowls after them were all won by hall of famers and franchise QBs.

The standards have definitely changed, numbers wise. The elites (for this season so far) are putting up a QB rating around 125, the greats are in the 110s, while if your guy has a QB rating around 90 or below, he's struggling by comparison. Whereas further back those numbers could've been scaled down 10, 20, or 30 points. But the gaps remain the same. The value those top guys offer over the lower guys is still substantial, so the number being higher aren't going to impact the market and don't lessen the value of the position, they just mean the numbers are being higher.

And the simple fact is, you're still better off investing $25M in a QB, than investing $25M in two or three players of similar skill at another position. I'm not the biggest Kirk Cousins fan, for instance, but I don't think you can argue that the Vikings would've gotten better value anywhere else in free agency with that $28M per year. The best financial solution is still to hope you get lucky with a franchise QB in the draft, and go all in when they're on a rookie deal. But that doesn't mean you don't pay a QB when you have him or can get him.

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1 hour ago, Elky said:

Well recently we've seen Nick Foles win Super Bowl MVP in a Super Bowl that almost saw Blake Bortles as his opponent. Zombie Peyton won a Super Bowl as well. I'm wondering if a GM will eventually say "Why should we devote all this cap room for an over-saturated position?".

To be fair, Nick Foles played like an MVP, and Wentz was at an MVP level before that.  Bortles played decently and had an elite defense.  Zombie Manning played decently in the postseason and had an elite defense.

Average QB play may be serviceable with an elite defense, but how many teams have that?  

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7 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

To be fair, Nick Foles played like an MVP, and Wentz was at an MVP level before that.  Bortles played decently and had an elite defense.  Zombie Manning played decently in the postseason and had an elite defense.

Average QB play may be serviceable with an elite defense, but how many teams have that?  

Thing is, the QB has more of an impact on overall success than any individual on defense by a large margin.

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14 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Let's not put Foles and zombie Peyton in the same category. Foles played like an elite QB during the CC and SB, period. 

Foles had an outstanding team around him to allow him to do what he did. Philly has arguably the most well built offensive line, a deep rotation at RBs and had a bunch of good wideouts.

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6 minutes ago, Elky said:

Foles had an outstanding team around him to allow him to do what he did. Philly has arguably the most well built offensive line, a deep rotation at RBs and had a bunch of good wideouts.

Yeah...kinda...but c'mon, Peyton in that Super Bowl was truly a shadow of his former self. 

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9 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Yeah...kinda...but c'mon, Peyton in that Super Bowl was truly a shadow of his former self. 

Now I will admit that it was a miracle Denver won that Super Bowl with such poor play from him, but SB50 would have been a blowout if say Fitzpatrick was under center.

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3 hours ago, Elky said:

Well recently we've seen Nick Foles win Super Bowl MVP in a Super Bowl that almost saw Blake Bortles as his opponent. Zombie Peyton won a Super Bowl as well. I'm wondering if a GM will eventually say "Why should we devote all this cap room for an over-saturated position?".

Sure, you can win one super bowl with a great overall team and a mediocre QB. 

But to win multiple Super Bowls, you need a great QB

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