Will the QB market crash eventually?

[Ryan_W]

speculating on unproven or up & down QBs with 'modest' contracts feels bad when they don't pan out

that does bad things to your team going forward

[RavensfanRD]

Not until Fantasy Football comes to an end.

Good luck with that.

[Hunter2_1]

I think there's 5 QBs so far this season with QBR (or PR, I can't remember) higher than Rodgers' career to date. Interesting.

I don't see it crashing any point soon, but I do see cyclical changes in the NFL all the time. We could just be in (or approaching) some kind of peak

[Malik]

I get what you mean. I don't think there are even going to be a majority of GMs who feel that way (even if it may be accurate) for the market to actually crash. It's getting to the point where most QBs are roughly interchangeable with each other because of how lenient the rules are so you'd think teams would stop overbidding. You also need coaching staffs that know how to put their QB in the best position to win though.

Ex. Like truthfully almost any QB in the league could have given you the same exact production Eli Manning has given the Giants this season thus far without them having to pay 24million dollars. Case Keenum, Derek Carr, and Marcus Mariota are the only starters who aren't rookies who have played worse than Eli.

[N4L]

I remember when chip Kelly was hired by Philly and it was said that he was going to be able to continuously get elite production out of late round rookies, so he would be able to spend all of the cap savings and early round draft picks building a dominant team around the QB and have sustained success. 

It's sounds rediculous until you remember that short stretch that Nick foles had under chip.. and then you remember he hoisted the Lombardi using RPOs with a stacked team around him.. never mind the fact chip Kelly is now winless at UCLA and took the niners to a 2-14 record last time we saw him in the NFL

So, no, the QB market won't 'crash'.

[Soko]

I don’t know about “crashing” but I do think there will be an opportunity for a coach to choose between a $35M-$40M QB and a $20-$25M QB - they’ll go with the latter. Sort of like what Washington did with Kirk/Smith, but on a bigger scale and with less mitigating factors (Kirk’s franchise tags, age difference, etc.)

[lavar703]

How are QBs unstoppable? Every week you see average QBs getting shut down and just like always the elite ones feast. Sherman always has some hot take but the reality is crappy defenses get burnt and good ones still shut QBs down. 

[3rivers]

There will be a saturation of QB's in 5 years. With all these QB's consuming 15%+ of the cap and playing into their 40's, there won't be any roster spots available for late round sleepers . There also won't be a place for vets to go if they get released because all the teams will have their franchise QB.  Right now there are a few teams that need a QB but in 5 years that won't be the case. 

The only advantage to all this is that there is potential for the QB2 on teams to be better on average and the league should offer good QB play even if the QB1 gets hurt.  Now it's just a matter of time before the NFL has a new cap for QB;s only  so they can keep getting paid more and teams can have a really good QB2 . 

It's wrong how the QB's can't get hit and are paid way more than everyone else on average.  

On 2018-10-05 at 3:16 PM, Elky said:

Well recently we've seen Nick Foles win Super Bowl MVP in a Super Bowl that almost saw Blake Bortles as his opponent. Zombie Peyton won a Super Bowl as well. I'm wondering if a GM will eventually say "Why should we devote all this cap room for an over-saturated position?".

This is what I was thinking about recently since it appear Ben is near retirement. With all the cap from a elite pay QB now available, a team can add a few pieces to really help the line of scrimmage or other areas of need.  I wouldn't opt for the high paid QB's , but instead would opt for owning the line of scrimmage like the Eagles did.  The Jags and Rams also control the line of scrimmage and are set for a run. There will be many QB's looking for work, and as a result the price should drop , remembering supply and demand 

Suppose in 5 years every team has their QB, yet the drafts have a few legit QB's as well. There should be some bargains for UFA older Vets and then draft steals as the QB's would  drop in the draft.  The landscape is changing

[Superman(DH23)]

In reality it already has.  The greatest advantage for any team right now is to have a franchise QB on a rookie deal.  That enables the GM to build a complete team around them.  The only real exception to that for the last 5 years has been The Pat's, where Brady is making WAYYYY under market value.  I have a feeling we are not far away from seeing teams grab a QB early for 5 years then let somebody else pay him and start over.  Think early 2000s Oakland As

[3rivers]

23 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

In reality it already has.  The greatest advantage for any team right now is to have a franchise QB on a rookie deal.  That enables the GM to build a complete team around them.  The only real exception to that for the last 5 years has been The Pat's, where Brady is making WAYYYY under market value.  I have a feeling we are not far away from seeing teams grab a QB early for 5 years then let somebody else pay him and start over.  Think early 2000s Oakland As

what about in 10 years, do you think every team will have a back up that would have been a starter for at least half the league at one time? I am expecting teams to have 2 good QB's in about 10 years .  All they have to do now is a few modifications for QB's, oops I mean a few MORE mods, and they should be able to preserve them and still not resort to flag football or 2 hand touch just yet. It's now hat I want but it's reality so I either get used to it or you know, maybe try to get used to the new rules ?

[Fresh Prince]

On 10/5/2018 at 6:30 PM, rocky_rams said:

Sure, you can win one super bowl with a great overall team and a mediocre QB. 

But to win multiple Super Bowls, you need a great QB

Tell that to the giants 

[TXsteeler]

4 hours ago, 3rivers said:

There will be a saturation of QB's in 5 years. With all these QB's consuming 15%+ of the cap and playing into their 40's, there won't be any roster spots available for late round sleepers . There also won't be a place for vets to go if they get released because all the teams will have their franchise QB.  Right now there are a few teams that need a QB but in 5 years that won't be the case

What are you basing this off?

In 5 years there will be a large number of current QBs either retired or on the cusp of retiring. This includes

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Eli Manning
5. Philip Rivers
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Alex Smith
8. Matt Ryan
9. Joe Flacco
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick (he's usually starting somewhere)

So even if we were to assume that every NFL team has a current franchise QB (which they don't) and that none of the newer guys drafted within the last 2 or 3 years won't bust out (which will surely happen to one or two) and that none of these guys gets a career ending injury or otherwise decides to quit (probably unlikely but maybe) then we need about 2 new franchise QBs to be drafted every year who don't bust, get injured, or leave the league for other reasons.

[3rivers]

38 minutes ago, TXsteeler said:

What are you basing this off?

if the QB's stay until around 40 or so. It might be appealing for them to get these $30M+ deals and stay around , Ben for example. These deals keep going up and the QB's aren't getting hit near as much as they used to .  I expect these QB's to  keep playing and take up the max cap space until they get run out of the league.  This will add up to more QB's in the league that are competent and allow for better reserve QB's.

[TXsteeler]

2 hours ago, 3rivers said:

if the QB's stay until around 40 or so. It might be appealing for them to get these $30M+ deals and stay around , Ben for example. These deals keep going up and the QB's aren't getting hit near as much as they used to .  I expect these QB's to  keep playing and take up the max cap space until they get run out of the league.  This will add up to more QB's in the league that are competent and allow for better reserve QB's.

I don't know that these guys can keep getting $30M the way they are playing now, except Brees maybe.

[DigInBoys]

4 hours ago, TXsteeler said:

What are you basing this off?

In 5 years there will be a large number of current QBs either retired or on the cusp of retiring. This includes

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Eli Manning
5. Philip Rivers
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Alex Smith
8. Matt Ryan
9. Joe Flacco
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick (he's usually starting somewhere)

So even if we were to assume that every NFL team has a current franchise QB (which they don't) and that none of the newer guys drafted within the last 2 or 3 years won't bust out (which will surely happen to one or two) and that none of these guys gets a career ending injury or otherwise decides to quit (probably unlikely but maybe) then we need about 2 new franchise QBs to be drafted every year who don't bust, get injured, or leave the league for other reasons.

Are Eli and Alex Smith really franchise QB's at this point though? They just seem serviceable.