Calvert28 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Sooooo about that oil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 hours ago, Calvert28 said: Sooooo about that oil? This event has reduced our need for it, so it stands to reason that prices have fallen on the stock market. However, when things return back to normal, our dependence on it hasn't been reduced. So it's going to bounce back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 33 minutes ago, theJ said: This event has reduced our need for it, so it stands to reason that prices have fallen on the stock market. However, when things return back to normal, our dependence on it hasn't been reduced. So it's going to bounce back. Demand will return but with all parties involved pumping incessantly the glut will continue. In May when OPEC+ cuts finally start hitting the market we should see a nice bounce in price. But I think it will be short lived as the USA does not look like it's willing to relent. Venezuela is back to almost full capacity. Russia doesn't seem all that enthused with cutting it's production. China and USA will have stockpiled their strategic reserves. I could see it getting back over $30 a barrel for WTI at some point this summer on a spike but I can't see it holding that level. We'll always need oil in some regard for lubricants, plastics etc. I disagree about dependence. It's a dying commodity. A slow death albeit... as we continue to improve MPG, develop hybrid vehicles, and move away from ICE engines demand will continue to fall incrementally. The conglomerates will survive and they'll acquire the small cap exploratory companies and the industry will condense. I day trade oil every day but I personally wouldn't invest in it long term. If you believe in it I'd stay away from USO as an equity. The amount of contango going on with those front month contracts is pretty scary risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, theJ said: This event has reduced our need for it, so it stands to reason that prices have fallen on the stock market. However, when things return back to normal, our dependence on it hasn't been reduced. So it's going to bounce back. Yea but I'm just saying. Negative numbers? God ****! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 On 4/18/2020 at 4:54 AM, N4L said: To add to what shanedorf was saying, boeing was already having a ton of problems before their industry took a huge hit. The 737 debacle set their brand back imo. Their response to it was poor initially, but they eventually did the right thing. That plane had a ton of mechanical issues. Was a complete mess. The issue with boeing is that there is little growth opportunity for them in a shrinking marketplace. You are only looking at at the commercial/air travel side of Boeing, which is a very small portion of what they do. Most of Boeing's work is in defense or space, with those fat government contracts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shockwave Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: Yea but I'm just saying. Negative numbers? God ****! It's one of those crazy headlines the media sensationalized and ran with for clickbait. It was only the May delivery futures contracts that were set to expire that went negative. Basically speculators that had no interest in actually taking possession of the physical oil had to pay to get out of the contracts. They went negative because of the expenses associated with transporting and storing the physical product. The June contracts were still at $22 last night. Although they also tanked overnight and are trading at $14 right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, theJ said: This event has reduced our need for it, so it stands to reason that prices have fallen on the stock market. However, when things return back to normal, our dependence on it hasn't been reduced. So it's going to bounce back. The thing is, demand IS actually going to be going down, as people transition away from fossil fuels and our technologies become more efficient. In the immediate future though, there is just way too much supply. Every country and energy company in the world has been investing nonstop in oil production infrastructure for 100 years now. It just isn't profitable for everyone to be producing oil at the rates they want. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 All of my work is in O&G/C capital projects in the Texas area, and there is just nowhere for the oil to go. Pipelines are being built, but that is a slow process, and the new terminals are 2-5 years away from being operational. They are paying people just to take their away oil on trucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 49 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: The thing is, demand IS actually going to be going down, as people transition away from fossil fuels and our technologies become more efficient. In the immediate future though, there is just way too much supply. Every country and energy company in the world has been investing nonstop in oil production infrastructure for 100 years now. It just isn't profitable for everyone to be producing oil at the rates they want. I mean, even immediate demand is still going to be depressed moving forward. Many people will continue to WAH, likely less travel in general, etc. Even if those numbers put us at say 80-90% of previous consumption, that’s a huge number. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 The whole market tanking yet again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, twslhs20 said: The whole market tanking yet again. It was inevitable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVScout Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Oil: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 On 2020-04-21 at 9:38 AM, Heimdallr said: You are only looking at at the commercial/air travel side of Boeing, which is a very small portion of what they do. Most of Boeing's work is in defense or space, with those fat government contracts. Actually the largest segment of Boeings revenue comes from commercial aircraft sales. Defence is about 30%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 On 2020-04-21 at 9:41 AM, Heimdallr said: The thing is, demand IS actually going to be going down, as people transition away from fossil fuels and our technologies become more efficient. In the immediate future though, there is just way too much supply. Every country and energy company in the world has been investing nonstop in oil production infrastructure for 100 years now. It just isn't profitable for everyone to be producing oil at the rates they want. To much supply is right. Additionally there’s to many other negative forces impacting oil that significantly impact price recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 my uncle gave me 500 shares of a dianostic company genmark when I turned 18. It was around $4 per share at the time (10/11 years ago). They had a coronavirus test approved in march. The share price was still $4. I waited 3 weeks, no action, still $4 a share. Screw it, I'm gonna sell it and buy some nvda with it.... today the share price is $10.35. goddamn. think about how many more shares of nvda I could have bought if I would have waited until today to sell! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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