Trade Deadline Thread

[Leader]

From the NY Post: Who could be next?

"Follow the money … and the birth certificates. Next up could be cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who two years ago signed a five-year, $62.5 million deal and will count $14.75 million on the 2019 salary cap. The cost to a team to take on Jenkins will be only $3.75 million after he reworked his contract earlier this season. If he is traded, he would count $7 million in “dead” money in 2018. Pat Shurmur seems to like Jackrabbit’s spirit, but you never know. A team would need $7.5 million to take on linebacker Olivier Vernon this season. Trading him would save the Giants $11.5 million on the 2019 cap but cost them $8 million in “dead” money. Since coming back from a high ankle sprain, Vernon, 28, has played well and is the only real pass rusher on the roster, so he more than likely stays. The cap situation for 2019 was decent and has grown the past few days. By trading away Apple and Harrison, the Giants gained nearly $8 million in cap space for next season and are approximately $33 million under the 2019 salary cap, according to Spotrac. That figure could get inflated exponentially, as the Giants clear another $17 million if Eli Manning is no longer on the roster"

[Packer_ESP]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I just saw that Schefter Tweeted yesterday that the Giants are trading Eli.  Don't know if that was a troll job or not, but he also said he thinks the Broncos are buyers, not sellers.  Eli in Denver sounds too perfect to NOT be true.  Both Manning brothers finishing their career in Denver.  That's the type of thing that makes perfect sense to me. 

Send him to Miami and watch Osweiller cry

[TheBitzMan]

2 hours ago, Lodestar said:

None of the other top teams in the East (Raptors, Celtics, Bucks) got there by tanking. Neither did the Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Blazers, etc.

Everyone wants to talk about the 76ers, but IMO the argument in favour of tanking is overblown.

 

The best teams in the league are comprised of multiple lottery picks. The only way to get there is tanking or luring free agents. I would much rather have my team tank than run out Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka and get swept by LeBron every year. NBA he*l is real. In my estimation there are 3 teams with a legitimate shot at the title. 

Celtics - Generational stupid trade by the Nets which landed them the 3rd & 1st overall picks. Historic franchise which was able to lure Horford/Hayward there and make a good trade for Kyrie. 

• Kyrie - #1 overall
• Jaylen - #3 overall
• Tatum - #3 overall
• Hayward - #9 overall
• Horford - #3 overall

Warriors - Were drafting in the lottery for years. Hit on two lottery picks (Steph/Klay) then found Draymond in the 2nd round. Were able to get Durant/Boogie after winning titles

• Steph - #7 overall
• Klay - #11 overall
• Durant - #2 overall
• Draymond - #33 overall
• Boogie - #5 overall

Rockets - In the lottery until taking a chance on a 6th man they turned into an MVP. He is able to convince CP3 to join. 

• CP3 - #4 overall
• Harden - #3 overall
• PJ Tucker - #35 overall
• Carmelo - #3 overall 
• Capela - #25 overall

The next tier. All of these teams need another top flight player to compete for a title. AD may be demanding a trade this offseason - Lillard may demand a trade in-season, they need to blow that up - the Raptors will be tanking when Kawhi leaves next offseason - the Thunder have a chance if Russ can play team basketball. All of these teams have top flight lottery picks outside of the Bucks/Raptors who have a player who were once in a lifetime picks at their draft slots (Giannis/Kawhi).

Bucks/Jazz/Pelicans/Sixers/Blazers/Raptors/Thunder

The rest of the league should be actively tanking. They have no chance at winning a title without multiple high draft picks or the ability to lure a top flight free agent. 

[packfanfb]

^^^^^^ This is what it's come to. We know a trade for the Packers is so hopeless we've started to talk about the NBA in the NFL Trade Deadline thread. 

[Lodestar]

10 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

The best teams in the league are comprised of multiple lottery picks. The only way to get there is tanking or luring free agents. I would much rather have my team tank than run out Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka and get swept by LeBron every year. NBA he*l is real. In my estimation there are 3 teams with a legitimate shot at the title. 

Celtics - Generational stupid trade by the Nets which landed them the 3rd & 1st overall picks. Historic franchise which was able to lure Horford/Hayward there and make a good trade for Kyrie. 

• Kyrie - #1 overall
• Jaylen - #3 overall
• Tatum - #3 overall
• Hayward - #9 overall
• Horford - #3 overall

Warriors - Were drafting in the lottery for years. Hit on two lottery picks (Steph/Klay) then found Draymond in the 2nd round. Were able to get Durant/Boogie after winning titles

• Steph - #7 overall
• Klay - #11 overall
• Durant - #2 overall
• Draymond - #33 overall
• Boogie - #5 overall

Rockets - In the lottery until taking a chance on a 6th man they turned into an MVP. He is able to convince CP3 to join. 

• CP3 - #4 overall
• Harden - #3 overall
• PJ Tucker - #35 overall
• Carmelo - #3 overall 
• Capela - #25 overall

The next tier. All of these teams need another top flight player to compete for a title. AD may be demanding a trade this offseason - Lillard may demand a trade in-season, they need to blow that up - the Raptors will be tanking when Kawhi leaves next offseason - the Thunder have a chance if Russ can play team basketball. All of these teams have top flight lottery picks outside of the Bucks/Raptors who have a player who were once in a lifetime picks at their draft slots (Giannis/Kawhi).

Bucks/Jazz/Pelicans/Sixers/Blazers/Raptors/Thunder

The rest of the league should be actively tanking. They have no chance at winning a title without multiple high draft picks or the ability to lure a top flight free agent. 

Good post, but you just named a who's who of guys who were acquired by FA or trade. None of the Celtics/Warriors/Rockets got where they are by tanking.

I'm a Raptors fan so certainly biased, but I think they have at least as good a shot at winning the East as the Celtics. For years Raptors fans have been debating "treadmill vs. tank," arguing that blowing it up and drafting an Andrew Wiggins is the key to NBA legitimacy. Meanwhile, Masai Ujiri has been steadily building one of the most talented, exciting, complete, top-to-bottom rosters in the NBA. Playoff blues aside, it has been fun to watch. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 16% chance of winning the title this year (better than the Rockets and Celtics combined). I'll take that.

 

 

[Lodestar]

4 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

^^^^^^ This is what it's come to. We know a trade for the Packers is so hopeless we've started to talk about the NBA in the NFL Trade Deadline thread. 

LOL. I have been waiting all my life to talk Raptors basketball with Packers fans. Give me this.

[Leader]

5 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

LOL. I have been waiting all my life to talk Raptors basketball with Packers fans. Give me this.

Raptor talk?

No, no. Any such chatter can only focus the future - of when Leonard leaves TOR and signs with the LAL

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

I'm not canning the oakland decision to rebuild and get future assets, but that's also not happening in a vacuum.

Gruden is not the coach for that type of team though!  His system isn't good for young players, he's trying to bring a 1980-90 coaching and managerial style to a game that's given up on that for plenty of good reasons.

Oakland might hit on those picks, they might not.  I don't really have a strong opinion about that. 

You've already said that the Raiders rebuild is a flop even before they've even had an opportunity to make the picks.  We get it, you're not a fan of Gruden.  But he at least deserves the benefit of the doubt until he's proven that he's incapable of drafting and developing.  Instead, you're using outdated information to come to a conclusion.

3 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

Tanking in the NFL is never going to be as viable as it is in the NBA because having a top 5 pick is way less valuable in the NFL as in the NBA.  When you play 5 people, 1 person makes all the difference.  When you play 22-26 players that can be considered "starters", well, Aaron Rodgers could be the best player of all time but he's still never gonna play Defense so he can only really account for at best a minority of the team's roster and talent level even if he represents the bulk of the offense's talent.

That's untrue.  In any given NBA draft, you're lucky if you have one franchise player let alone multiple players.  If you're not drafting first, you're probably looking at a solid starter or a good role player.  If you're drafting outside of the first pick in the NFL, you can still find a high quality starter.  The talent pool in the NBA is so diluted you're lucky if you find someone whose capable of making an impact.

3 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

You're saying the hinkie rebuild wasn't taking good odds, and yeah they only get the top pick 14% of the time, sure.  But that's just odds at #1 pick not a "top pick" in the top 3-5 slots depending on the strength of a given draft.  So they got a top ick 4 times... and they ended up with 2 all stars and a TBD fultz and a borderline worthless Okafor. 

How often do you think the NBA draft kicks out 3 or 4 impact players?  It doesn't usually happen.

3 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

Sure, that's results oriented thinking and I'm right there with you on the Browns and how that "process" actually worked too, and their issues are probably coaching not talent. 

the process was "The Process" because it was fundamentally sound... you intend to suck for as long as it takes for the odds to come around and you get a generational player or a couple of all stars, and then you become a good NBA team.  It has reframed how every NBA team goes into a season.  "Am I good enough to win a title? No? Ok.  Should we tank the season?"

The Atlanta Hawks and NY Knicks are deciding to lose games this year... before they even started the season or played a game!  Their fans are ok with this!  They want them to lose and enjoy watching as they play despite this!  Perhaps that's a league issue for them long term, but it hasn't proven to be the case as of late.

You'll never see that in the NFL because the top picks just aren't worth THAT much more than the 5-10 picks or the 10-15 picks in the NFL draft.  Coaching matters 10x more in the NFL.  A great coach can really make a mediocre roster into a pretty good team.

The process wasn't faulty for the Browns.  The execution was faulty.  And that's where you're trying to blend them together.  I've said ad nauseam the worse thing that you can do in the NFL is be in that QB purgatory.  Where your franchise QB is too good to keep you away from potentially replacing him, but not good enough to make you a serious Super Bowl contenders.  Cincinnati is a prime example.  Andy Dalton is good enough that he's going to keep him away from being in a position to move up to grab a franchise QB, but not good enough to really push them to be a Super Bowl contender.  Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, etc. are all guys that would fall under this territory.  Same concept in the NFL.  Teams like Portland and Milwaukee are too good to luck into a franchise QB via the lottery, but not good enough to win a championship.  What the Hawks and Knicks are doing is no different than what the Raiders are doing and now the Giants are doing

I'm not sure how you can walk away and say that picks in that 5-10 range are similar as those in the 10-15 range.  They are inherently more valuable.  It's like saying the 5th pick and the 10th pick in the NBA draft are similar.  If you think a great coach is going to change the fact that you're a talent deprived roster, you're mistaken.

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, Lodestar said:

None of the other top teams in the East (Raptors, Celtics, Bucks) got there by tanking. Neither did the Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Blazers, etc.

Everyone wants to talk about the 76ers, but IMO the argument in favour of tanking is overblown.

The only real title contenders in the East are the Raptors and Celtics.  The Celtics got a TON of their young talent via the draft.  Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, etc. were all drafted high.  Just because the Celtics didn't go through the tanking process doesn't mean that the concept is broken.  They just happened to luck out that the Nets gifted them the franchise.  Imagine how much things would be different for the Celtics and the Nets had they not done that KG trade.  We could be looking at a Nets' roster right compromise of Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown.  Warriors got majority of their talent through the draft, and bunked the draft odds of finding success later in the lottery.  And then they happened to be there with the unprecedented cap space to sign Kevin Durant.  Rockets got James Harden, a 6th man at the time, who blossomed into a superstar.  And then several shrewd moves later they're a title contender.

Either way, this whole point was getting out of hand.  There's only a handful of players who can actually make a team a title contender.  Those players don't come around very often.  Teams like Portland, Milwaukee, etc. aren't going to win a championship anytime soon.

[MacReady]

I'm a big fan of Gruden.  Say he's able to turn those three picks into Bosa and Cleilin Ferrel or whatever his name is.  Or Bosa and another tackle.  Or Bosa/Oliver.  Or Bosa, Oliver and two not enough picks.  

Gruden is a head coach for nine more years after this.  He's got 5 first round picks in the next two years.  

He is in a very strong position to have a LOT of success.

[CWood21]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

I'm a big fan of Gruden.  Say he's able to turn those three picks into Bosa and Cleilin Ferrel or whatever his name is.  Or Bosa and another tackle.  Or Bosa/Oliver.  Or Bosa, Oliver and two not enough picks.  

Gruden is a head coach for nine more years after this.  He's got 5 first round picks in the next two years.  

He is in a very strong position to have a LOT of success.

Exactly.  Even if you don't think Gruden is a good HC, the Raiders have a TON of ammunition to create the franchise from the ground up.

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

From the NY Post: Who could be next?

"Follow the money … and the birth certificates. Next up could be cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who two years ago signed a five-year, $62.5 million deal and will count $14.75 million on the 2019 salary cap. The cost to a team to take on Jenkins will be only $3.75 million after he reworked his contract earlier this season. If he is traded, he would count $7 million in “dead” money in 2018. Pat Shurmur seems to like Jackrabbit’s spirit, but you never know. A team would need $7.5 million to take on linebacker Olivier Vernon this season. Trading him would save the Giants $11.5 million on the 2019 cap but cost them $8 million in “dead” money. Since coming back from a high ankle sprain, Vernon, 28, has played well and is the only real pass rusher on the roster, so he more than likely stays. The cap situation for 2019 was decent and has grown the past few days. By trading away Apple and Harrison, the Giants gained nearly $8 million in cap space for next season and are approximately $33 million under the 2019 salary cap, according to Spotrac. That figure could get inflated exponentially, as the Giants clear another $17 million if Eli Manning is no longer on the roster"

$33 -> $50 via an adder of $17 is arithmetic growth, not exponential. 

[Cakeshoppe]

27 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

$33 -> $50 via an adder of $17 is arithmetic growth, not exponential. 

Lol I was gonna say the same thing

[Leader]

31 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

$33 -> $50 via an adder of $17 is arithmetic growth, not exponential. 

Damn. Nobody can ever accuse you of not reading these things
Well done.

[TheBitzMan]

1 hour ago, Lodestar said:

Good post, but you just named a who's who of guys who were acquired by FA or trade. None of the Celtics/Warriors/Rockets got where they are by tanking.

I'm a Raptors fan so certainly biased, but I think they have at least as good a shot at winning the East as the Celtics. For years Raptors fans have been debating "treadmill vs. tank," arguing that blowing it up and drafting an Andrew Wiggins is the key to NBA legitimacy. Meanwhile, Masai Ujiri has been steadily building one of the most talented, exciting, complete, top-to-bottom rosters in the NBA. Playoff blues aside, it has been fun to watch. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 16% chance of winning the title this year (better than the Rockets and Celtics combined). I'll take that.

 

 

That makes sense coming from your perspective. I probably undersold the Raptors a tad in my championship assessment. If they can get to the Finals, Kawhi will have an interesting decision on his hands. 

I am going to watch one of those tanking teams tonight vs. the Bucks. Hoping Simmons plays.