diamondbull424 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Ray Reed said: Anybody else find that .6% figure INCREDIBLY low? Like, comically low? This FPI metric is hot garbage lol. They're really suggesting that this scenario: Colts beat Steelers + Jags Browns beat Jets + Steelers Dolphins beat Raiders + a resting Bills team Ravens beat Giants + Bengals ....is only .6% likely to happen? Is ESPN high? There’s no guarantee that the Bills will be resting. There’s only so many players on a gameday roster. Last year even when we rested Lamar and a few guys, we still had most of our starters in there. But I imagine that number probably has to do with historical results of 11-5 teams along with teams with specific SOS along with point differential all mixed in. Probably hasn’t much to do with these EXACT scenarios. Especially since those results probably can’t properly register a Steelers team that is 11-3 with the 3rd highest point differential in the NFL and yet is as trash a team down the stretch as they are. That and in the past the 2nd seed got a bye week and so it was something to play for, while now there’s no bye so it’s hard to quantify how each team might conceivably strategize around not having a benefit of fans nor a bye week. Hard to make a model to account for such a meltdown and new range of outcomes. We’re the test group to how the data will have to evolve moving forward.😂 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drd23 Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 hours ago, Ray Reed said: Anybody else find that .6% figure INCREDIBLY low? Like, comically low? This FPI metric is hot garbage lol. They're really suggesting that this scenario: Colts beat Steelers + Jags Browns beat Jets + Steelers Dolphins beat Raiders + a resting Bills team Ravens beat Giants + Bengals ....is only .6% likely to happen? Is ESPN high? The Bills will probably still be playing for seeding in Week 17 (yes the #2 seed doesn't get a bye any more, but I think they'd still want it and therefore will play for it) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, drd23 said: The Bills will probably still be playing for seeding in Week 17 (yes the #2 seed doesn't get a bye any more, but I think they'd still want it and therefore will play for it) Yea, I don't think we're at the point where any team will write off ensuring a divisional round home game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, drd23 said: The Bills will probably still be playing for seeding in Week 17 (yes the #2 seed doesn't get a bye any more, but I think they'd still want it and therefore will play for it) If the Bills win and Steelers lose to the Colts next week then they clinch the #2 seed and can use Week 17 as their bye week. Essentially it's as simple as this for us now: We already know if we lose one game we're out. There are 4 games beyond that where we can hope for a good result: Dolphins/Raiders, Dolphins/Bills, Steelers/Colts, and Steelers/Browns. The Dolphins will be favored in the Raiders game, and if the Steelers lose out, it means they get a walkover in Week 17. So it actually looks very straightforward: If the Steelers lose out, we miss the playoffs. Beyond that you're looking at praying for big upset wins (BUF/NE, NYJ/CLE, IND/JAX) to help make it competitive for us but that's not gonna happen. If the Steelers don't figure it out our path to the playoffs is pretty much gone. If the Steelers behave even remotely like a playoff caliber team, then it's a given that we'll get the result we need considering they get 2 cracks at it. Edited December 24, 2020 by SalvadorsDeli 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drd23 Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said: If the Bills win and Steelers lose to the Colts next week then they clinch the #2 seed and can use Week 17 as their bye week. Ah, you're right, and have just made me realise that when I was playing with the Playoff Machine earlier in the week that it was before the Steelers lost to the Bengals and I didn't factor in a loss there in the potential results I was changing that kept the #2 seed in play in Week 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BareYourTeeth Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Y'all are forgetting about the Titans. If they beat the Packers then the Bills can't rest their starters Week 17 if they want the #2 seed. If the Titans lose to the Packers we could just hope they lose the Texans too. That would be another way we can get in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Colts have moved from +115 on Monday to -135 to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I hate the ******* raiders 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreRebel Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 FFFFFFFUUUUUUCCCCCCCCKKKKKKK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RavensDefense3 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 so now we have to rely on the freefalling steelers and a bills team that could possibly rest their players. ive already accepted that we're gona miss out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30605369/source-baltimore-ravens-fined-250k-covid-19-outbreak IDK if this was brought up elsewhere but it doesn't seem like we are going to lose a draft pick for the COVID mess. I expected this outcome,TBH, never thought we would lose a pick. The NFL can't punish based on outcomes and the actual protocol violations we had weren't drastically worse than other teams. There will be plenty of outrage from other fanbases though, which I'll enjoy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 58 minutes ago, wackywabbit said: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30605369/source-baltimore-ravens-fined-250k-covid-19-outbreak IDK if this was brought up elsewhere but it doesn't seem like we are going to lose a draft pick for the COVID mess. I expected this outcome,TBH, never thought we would lose a pick. The NFL can't punish based on outcomes and the actual protocol violations we had weren't drastically worse than other teams. There will be plenty of outrage from other fanbases though, which I'll enjoy. How we still employ Steve Saunders is totally beyond me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 59 minutes ago, wackywabbit said: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30605369/source-baltimore-ravens-fined-250k-covid-19-outbreak IDK if this was brought up elsewhere but it doesn't seem like we are going to lose a draft pick for the COVID mess. I expected this outcome,TBH, never thought we would lose a pick. The NFL can't punish based on outcomes and the actual protocol violations we had weren't drastically worse than other teams. There will be plenty of outrage from other fanbases though, which I'll enjoy. I disagree with our punishment, tbh, but it's whatever. How you just fine a team $250k for a coach violating protocols (and probably other people, too) is just beyond me. Furthermore, the team didn't even fire him. They just suspended him a couple weeks then silently let him back into his job like nothing happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, ThatJaxxenGuy said: How we still employ Steve Saunders is totally beyond me I don't necessarily disagree with that if some of the reports are true. But, I also found the stories that painted him as the supervillain of a virus outbreak far too simplistic to be fully accepted. We likely won't get enough info properly verified for me to fully convinced he needs to lose his job. Edited December 28, 2020 by wackywabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, wackywabbit said: I don't necessarily disagree with that if some of the reports are true. But, I also found the stories that painted him as the supervillain of a virus outbreak far too simplistic to be fully accepted. We likely won't get enough info properly verified for me to fully convinced he needs to lose his job. Yeah, fair enough waiting but I just don't see how there's any space on a team with playoff aspirations to have an anti-mask guy breaking protocols in the building. We should count our blessings it didn't cost us the season giving up a freebie to the Steelers. The amount of games a strength and conditioning coach should be directly costing your team is zero. I am sure we can scour youtube and get some other Jabroni in here to work out with us who could do it without shirking the rules in the middle of a global pandemic. Edited December 28, 2020 by ThatJaxxenGuy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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