This team needs a 2nd round WR/TE/RB or equivalent FA

[coachbuns]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Boykin is the exact type of WR I was talking about.  He was a bum and yet he was still productive.  Your entire argument hinges on the fact that Kumerow and Allison haven't had the opportunities.  Last year, Geronimo Allison played in 343 snaps.  This year, Allison played in 241 snaps.  Last year, Allison had 23 receptions for 253 receiving yards and 0 TD on 39 targets.  This year, Allison had 12 receptions for 202 receiving yards and 2 TD receptions on 22 targets.  Am I saying I'm comfortable going into the 2019 season with our WRs behind Adams being MVS, Allison, and ESB?  No, but I'm not chomping at the bit to add a rookie WR whose really not going to produce at a high level.  The Panthers just invested a FRP into DJ Moore (47 receptions, 676 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions) while the Cardinals invested a SRP into Christian Kirk (43 receptions, 590 receiving yards, 3 TD receptions).  Which one was better value?

We only have a finite number of ways to improve our roster.  We probably need to add at least one RB, add a veteran WR to protect the Packers, find a future starting TE, starting RT, and a future starting RT on the offensive side of the ball.  On the defensive side of the ball, we need at least one more DL, two starting EDGE, one ILB for numbers, and two starting safeties.  Probably wouldn't hurt to add more depth to our CB position either.  If the choice comes down to spending money on a veteran WR or investing a semi-premium pick on a WR, I'll take the veteran WR.

Isn't it a sad commentary on what our team needs to upgrade player personnel?  Ted Thompson just crippled this team his last couple years as GM.  

[pacman5252]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Who is putting them on a pedestal?

Looking at some of your previous posts I’d say you are...

You’re expecting substantial jumps from year 2 players that are currently ranked as low end 3rd options according to pff and who haven’t shown real starter potential. 

Looking at some of your posts, I think you need to realize that;

1. Our D isn’t horrible anymore. We don’t need to use all our resources to helping the D anymore (yea I want an edge 1st but outside that, dl/other lbs are fine, probably need another corner, safety isn’t really as valuable  anymore judging by fa spending, we can live with a stop gap fa). 

2. Outside Adams we legitimately could have the worst pass catching unit in the league. Per Pff we have 4 wrs grading out 89th or higher. Graham isn’t starting worthy. We need a Tate teir vet and a second round wr to get this passing game back to above average.

3. There aren’t as many late round wrs that pan out as you think. Look at the top 30 guys in receiving right now. It’s mostly top 3 round guys. If you want a fix, you need to invest in it.

4. Wrs analytically are not worthless. They impact the game significantly. 

 

If we went Edge, Ol, wr in that order, plus getting a Tate in FA our O would be back and D would be good enough to compete.

[SSG]

40 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Isn't it a sad commentary on what our team needs to upgrade player personnel?  Ted Thompson just crippled this team his last couple years as GM.  

I agree.  Ted Thompson as well as Gute with his first draft.  I   don't consider a bunch of low end Jeff Janis caliber prospects (5 in the last 2 years) as a serious investment into the offense.  That's throwing darts blindfolded  with bad football players hoping to catch a diamond in a bag of coal.   We've completely ignored this offense over the last 4 years and we're paying for it now with a unit that isn't good enough to get us to the playoffs.  We've continued to waste premier pick after premier pick on DB over the last 4 years at the expense of our offense.  We've totally taken Rodgers for granted and now that he's not playing like a god on every snap he's the only person to get blame. That's a DB with our first 2 picks in 3 of the last 4 years with all but one looking like terrible selections at this point.  

Edited December 18, 2018 by SSG

[Kepler]

#BringBackCook

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, pacman5252 said:

Looking at some of your previous posts I’d say you are...

You’re expecting substantial jumps from year 2 players that are currently ranked as low end 3rd options according to pff and who haven’t shown real starter potential. 

How so?  By not wanting to block the guys who have actually produced this year in favor of guys who are currently playing in college?  I feel like I've been pretty vocal about my opinion in bringing in a second tier FA at WR to add competition to the mix along with adding a mid-to-late round draft pick.  Instead of investing a top 64 pick on a WR, I'd sooner invest it in CB, OT, or EDGE.  Probably would invest in that safety position before WR too.

3 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

1. Our D isn’t horrible anymore. We don’t need to use all our resources to helping the D anymore (yea I want an edge 1st but outside that, dl/other lbs are fine, probably need another corner, safety isn’t really as valuable  anymore judging by fa spending, we can live with a stop gap fa). 

It certainly isn't good by any means.  We're 17th in opponents PPG or 22nd in DVOA if that's your preferred stat.  That's bad.  Last year, we were 26th in opponents PPG and 24th in DVOA.  We're a ways away from being a good defense.  And we're a mile away from being a great defense.

5 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

2. Outside Adams we legitimately could have the worst pass catching unit in the league. Per Pff we have 4 wrs grading out 89th or higher. Graham isn’t starting worthy. We need a Tate teir vet and a second round wr to get this passing game back to above average.

We're 7th in offensive DVOA and 16th in PPG.  Just because we're not the elite offense anymore doesn't mean we're a bad offense.  Adding Golden Tate AND a 2nd round WR is spending even more on a position that really isn't that bad.  You don't see the Falcons rushing to replace Calvin Ridley or the Panthers replacing DJ Moore.  Why?  I'll give you a hint, it isn't only because of their draft status.

8 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

3. There aren’t as many late round wrs that pan out as you think. Look at the top 30 guys in receiving right now. It’s mostly top 3 round guys. If you want a fix, you need to invest in it.

The success rate isn't as minuscule as you make it out to be.  But the fact that remains that MVS has been productive in his limited snaps.  How many mid-to-late (3rd through 5th) are productive as rookie WRs and then disappear?  Last year, Dede Westbrook as a rookie had 27 receptions, 339 receiving yards, and 1 TD.  This year, he's got 56 receptions, 662 receiving yards, and 5 TD receptions.  Kenny Golloday had 28 receptions, 477 receiving yards, and 3 TD as a rookie.  This year, he's got 64 receptions, 1005 receiving yards, and 6 TD receptions.  Tyreek Hill as a rookie had 61 receptions, 593 receiving yards, and 6 TD.  As a sophomore, he had 75 receptions, 1183 receiving yards, and 7 TD receptions.  I'll tell you this now, and I'll probably say it again.  MVS will be more productive than a rookie WR.

14 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

4. Wrs analytically are not worthless. They impact the game significantly. 

Yet the analysis says otherwise.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/5/7/8571409/the-nfl-positional-value-pyramid-a-visual-of-john-dorseys-production
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17290538/draft-first-round-saquon-barkley-positional-value

And that's assuming you manage to get a bonafide #1 WR.

[Mazrimiv]

I don't see a need to argue about which weak position is most worthy of an upgrade.  This team can spend next years premium picks at virtually any position and it will be a position of need.  If there was ever a year to stick to BPA, this is it.

[skibrett15]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Over a 16 game period, Allison's numbers prorate out to 64 receptions, 970 receiving yards, and 6 TD receptions.  Boykin's best year was 49 receptions, 681 receiving yards, and 3 TD receptions.  He's a solid WR which I'm not sure anyone is arguing otherwise.  The question is that rookie WR really going to be a stud as a rookie?  No.

no of course not.  Is the offense ever really going to be elite without a serious investment at WR or TE? No.

I think it's easier to get back to an elite offense than it is to build a top 10 defense.  Team is like 1-2 pieces away from a truly elite offense, so that's the direction I would go.

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

no of course not.  Is the offense ever really going to be elite without a serious investment at WR or TE? No.

I think it's easier to get back to an elite offense than it is to build a top 10 defense.  Team is like 1-2 pieces away from a truly elite offense, so that's the direction I would go.

I've been on record as saying I believe that scheme wins on offense, talent wins on defense.  Looking at the top offenses, and they've got ~2 good weapons and not much else.  Kansas City has Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  The Chargers have Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen.  The Rams have Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley.  The Saints have Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.  The Steelers have JJSS, Antonio Brown, and James Conner.  I really don't think our offensive weapons are our issue.  But I also don't think we're as bad as our PPG indicates.  We're a good offensive scheme and a QB who can execute the plays away from being a top 5 offense again.  I'd rather take that money and invest that cap space into the draft.

[incognito_man]

11 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

  Team is like 1-2 pieces away from a truly elite offense, so that's the direction I would go.

QB and #2 WR?

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

QB and #2 WR?

I'd even start with having a QB who plays like his usual self.

[pacman5252]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'd even start with having a QB who plays like his usual self.

He’s qb 6 on pff. He isn’t playing bad. We are rolling with 1 wr and guys who shouldn’t be on the field. Do you remember 2015 when we were rolling with Abby and Janis in the playoffs? This offense is closer to that. Great QB, subpar talent, no chemistry 

[Nick_gb]

13 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

He’s qb 6 on pff. He isn’t playing bad. We are rolling with 1 wr and guys who shouldn’t be on the field. Do you remember 2015 when we were rolling with Abby and Janis in the playoffs? This offense is closer to that. Great QB, subpar talent, no chemistry 

Well if PFF says .... 

[pacman5252]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

How so?  By not wanting to block the guys who have actually produced this year in favor of guys who are currently playing in college?  I feel like I've been pretty vocal about my opinion in bringing in a second tier FA at WR to add competition to the mix along with adding a mid-to-late round draft pick.  Instead of investing a top 64 pick on a WR, I'd sooner invest it in CB, OT, or EDGE.  Probably would invest in that safety position before WR too.

It certainly isn't good by any means.  We're 17th in opponents PPG or 22nd in DVOA if that's your preferred stat.  That's bad.  Last year, we were 26th in opponents PPG and 24th in DVOA.  We're a ways away from being a good defense.  And we're a mile away from being a great defense.

We're 7th in offensive DVOA and 16th in PPG.  Just because we're not the elite offense anymore doesn't mean we're a bad offense.  Adding Golden Tate AND a 2nd round WR is spending even more on a position that really isn't that bad.  You don't see the Falcons rushing to replace Calvin Ridley or the Panthers replacing DJ Moore.  Why?  I'll give you a hint, it isn't only because of their draft status.

The success rate isn't as minuscule as you make it out to be.  But the fact that remains that MVS has been productive in his limited snaps.  How many mid-to-late (3rd through 5th) are productive as rookie WRs and then disappear?  Last year, Dede Westbrook as a rookie had 27 receptions, 339 receiving yards, and 1 TD.  This year, he's got 56 receptions, 662 receiving yards, and 5 TD receptions.  Kenny Golloday had 28 receptions, 477 receiving yards, and 3 TD as a rookie.  This year, he's got 64 receptions, 1005 receiving yards, and 6 TD receptions.  Tyreek Hill as a rookie had 61 receptions, 593 receiving yards, and 6 TD.  As a sophomore, he had 75 receptions, 1183 receiving yards, and 7 TD receptions.  I'll tell you this now, and I'll probably say it again.  MVS will be more productive than a rookie WR.

Yet the analysis says otherwise.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/5/7/8571409/the-nfl-positional-value-pyramid-a-visual-of-john-dorseys-production
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17290538/draft-first-round-saquon-barkley-positional-value

And that's assuming you manage to get a bonafide #1 WR.

1. The point on our D is we aren’t abysmal anymore. 22nd isn’t 30th which we’ve been. We are a pass rusher, health breaks,  and another year of development from being top 15. With a top flight offense, we can compete. 

 

2. Offensive dvoa is too yardage driven. We have done a nice job this year putting drives together down by 10. Throwing out first round wrs is a little bit of a red herring. Also Ridley (pff wr 59) and Moore (pff 22) have played significantly better than our rookies (wr 89/93). They are showing potential and positive contributors. Our guys are mega projects and net negatives. Maybe they develop, but are far away.

3. Again, you are using confirmation bias of guys who have panned out drafted later.  Yes many wrs have panned our from later rounds. That is every position. Look at the top 30 wrs in receiving... if you want successful players, you have to invest in successful players. Not just wish it

4. This is one guys model, and it’s 3 year old info (confirmation bias again). Safetey is no longer a high impact position (see fa spending). ILB isn’t. Passing and scoring are up. In addition according to it, assuming we draft edge we’d have the top 4 needs met and have 2 capable rushers with Fack.

[pacman5252]

15 minutes ago, Nick_gb said:

Well if PFF says .... 

They watch tape.

I won’t argue that AR hasn’t looked as sharp, but it’s mostly the crappy talent. We’ve seen him “not be himself before” in 2015 in a similar situation. Fans were drinking the talent koolaide with Wisconsin homeboy Abby and the white megatron measureable Janis just like they are now with a new set late round prospects with a few nice measureable that can’t play. 

 

[squire12]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I've been on record as saying I believe that scheme wins on offense, talent wins on defense.  Looking at the top offenses, and they've got ~2 good weapons and not much else.  Kansas City has Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  The Chargers have Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen.  The Rams have Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley.  The Saints have Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.  The Steelers have JJSS, Antonio Brown, and James Conner.  I really don't think our offensive weapons are our issue.  But I also don't think we're as bad as our PPG indicates.  We're a good offensive scheme and a QB who can execute the plays away from being a top 5 offense again.  I'd rather take that money and invest that cap space into the draft.

You are under selling

Kareem Hunt

Mike Williams 

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp