Around The League V.2

[NCOUGHMAN]

On 6/23/2021 at 10:36 PM, NYRaider said:

I think that has been an issue for us with Carr/Gruden, when we're winning games we go ultra conservative instead of looking to blow the game open. 

Except in 2016 when gruden wasn’t here

[drfrey13]

46 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Except in 2016 when gruden wasn’t here

I believe we were still pretty conservative in 2016.  The offense did not really turn it up until we needed a quick score before the half or the 4th.  We still let teams hang around and that is why we had so many nail bitters and people were calling Carr an MVP candidate with all the 4th quarter comebacks.  He was good but he always seemed to score in under 2 minutes when there was 4-5 minutes remaining.  Those games really should not have been as close as they were.  +16 turnover differential and still need 7 of 12 wins with game winning drives.

[BackinBlack]

11 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Except in 2016 when gruden wasn’t here

no we stalled out so many times in games in 2016, that shouldve been blow outs, only too win by 1 score by either scoring a late TD, or needing mack to just end it himself. 
We still went conservative back then. 

I do think a lot of coaches in the NFL, go the conservative route because you have to trust your D. . . But Derek Carr needs to just audible at the line sometimes if he sees a good matchup. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

13 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I believe we were still pretty conservative in 2016.  The offense did not really turn it up until we needed a quick score before the half or the 4th.  We still let teams hang around and that is why we had so many nail bitters and people were calling Carr an MVP candidate with all the 4th quarter comebacks.  He was good but he always seemed to score in under 2 minutes when there was 4-5 minutes remaining.  Those games really should not have been as close as they were.  +16 turnover differential and still need 7 of 12 wins with game winning drives.

Yup. I think it’s the qb you gotta have killer instinct esp when you smell blood in the water. I wonder how other qbs play with a lead except the Brady example you provided 

[drfrey13]

4 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Yup. I think it’s the qb you gotta have killer instinct esp when you smell blood in the water. I wonder how other qbs play with a lead except the Brady example you provided 

I would think most teams tend to play more conservative with a lead but I think you might see teams take the Brady approach since there is evidence it improves win percentage.  Kind of like going for it on 4th down.  You use to never see teams go for it on 4th until that stats proved it leads to a better outcome overall. Just have to wait for the other teams to catch on.

[NCOUGHMAN]

42 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

I would think most teams tend to play more conservative with a lead but I think you might see teams take the Brady approach since there is evidence it improves win percentage.  Kind of like going for it on 4th down.  You use to never see teams go for it on 4th until that stats proved it leads to a better outcome overall. Just have to wait for the other teams to catch on.

I think you’re either a gun slinger or you’re not. 
 

it’s like throwing short of the sticks on third down. Some guys don’t even look short of the sticks in that situation it’s either in your dna or not. 
 

im actually curious now what’s our biggest victory points wise. Off my head I think of that dmac laughing game. 

[drfrey13]

16 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

I think you’re either a gun slinger or you’re not. 
 

it’s like throwing short of the sticks on third down. Some guys don’t even look short of the sticks in that situation it’s either in your dna or not. 
 

im actually curious now what’s our biggest victory points wise. Off my head I think of that dmac laughing game. 

Looks like during Carr's time here we have had 2 wins of more than 20 and 7 of 10 or more.  4 of the 10+ point wins were against Denver and the Jets.  The other 3 were the 49ers (2014), Bills (2016), and Jax (2016).  Since Gruden has been here we have only defeated the Broncos by more than 10 and the last time before that was the Jets game before the 2017 WFT debacle.  Since 2018 I think Gruden and Guenther have played a big part in the point spread.  Gruden gets very conservative and Guenther would play extremely soft.  To put it into perspective, Brady had 8 wins of 10+ points and 4 of 20+ points just last year.  Before anyone brings up the defense let me first say that Brady averaged over 41 points in those games.  We put up at least 35 points twice all year 40 points 1 time.  I am not saying this is all on Carr but Carr does not have the killer instinct.  He can be clutch but I think a lot of those situations would not need to happen if he had a different mindset.

Edited July 1, 2021 by drfrey13

[BackinBlack]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

Looks like during Carr's time here we have had 2 wins of more than 20 and 7 of 10 or more.  4 of the 10+ point wins were against Denver and the Jets.  The other 3 were the 49ers (2014), Bills (2016), and Jax (2016).  Since Gruden has been here we have only defeated the Broncos by more than 10 and the last time before that was the Jets game before the 2017 WFT debacle.  Since 2018 I think Gruden and Guenther have played a big part in the point spread.  Gruden gets very conservative and Guenther would play extremely soft.  To put it into perspective, Brady had 8 wins of 10+ points and 4 of 20+ points just last year.  Before anyone brings up the defense let me first say that Brady averaged over 41 points in those games.  We put up at least 35 points twice all year 40 points 1 time.  I am not saying this is all on Carr but Carr does not have the killer instinct.  He can be clutch but I think a lot of those situations would not need to happen if he had a different mindset.

not disagreeing that Carr does not have the killer instinct, but the style of offense also plays a role. (We may also run a certain style because of Carr, but I do think Gruden loves the ball control, WC offense)

To put up 35+, you essentially need to score quick. Take deep shots, or just in general go for splash big plays. 
Our commitment to the run game, essentially makes games shorter, therefore less time to score points for both us and the opposing team.  (In theory)

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

Looks like during Carr's time here we have had 2 wins of more than 20 and 7 of 10 or more.  4 of the 10+ point wins were against Denver and the Jets.  The other 3 were the 49ers (2014), Bills (2016), and Jax (2016).  Since Gruden has been here we have only defeated the Broncos by more than 10 and the last time before that was the Jets game before the 2017 WFT debacle.  Since 2018 I think Gruden and Guenther have played a big part in the point spread.  Gruden gets very conservative and Guenther would play extremely soft.  To put it into perspective, Brady had 8 wins of 10+ points and 4 of 20+ points just last year.  Before anyone brings up the defense let me first say that Brady averaged over 41 points in those games.  We put up at least 35 points twice all year 40 points 1 time.  I am not saying this is all on Carr but Carr does not have the killer instinct.  He can be clutch but I think a lot of those situations would not need to happen if he had a different mindset.

Interesting 

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

not disagreeing that Carr does not have the killer instinct, but the style of offense also plays a role. (We may also run a certain style because of Carr, but I do think Gruden loves the ball control, WC offense)

To put up 35+, you essentially need to score quick. Take deep shots, or just in general go for splash big plays. 
Our commitment to the run game, essentially makes games shorter, therefore less time to score points for both us and the opposing team.  (In theory)

I agree and that is why I pointed out Gruden being a possible reason why the offense does not score as much and Guenther as part of the cause of the defense giving up points when we have a lead.  There are a lot of variables but Carr is still part of the problem if the Brady style of always attacking works.

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[NYRaider]

On 6/27/2021 at 8:04 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Maybe Brady wanted to come to LV, but I don't think he'd be knocking DC of all the qb's around the league who are starting mediocre or worse players. But that's just me.

Carr has 1 winning season in 7 years here.

[MrOaktown_56]

17 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Carr has 1 winning season in 7 years here.

Profound.

[Frankie2Gunz]

5 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I agree and that is why I pointed out Gruden being a possible reason why the offense does not score as much and Guenther as part of the cause of the defense giving up points when we have a lead.  There are a lot of variables but Carr is still part of the problem if the Brady style of always attacking works.

It does?  Explain why Brady averaged 26/10 over his last two years in NE? 

[drfrey13]

12 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

It does?  Explain why Brady averaged 26/10 over his last two years in NE? 

Look I do not want to argue who is the better QB.  You can not deny Brady plays with a different mentality than Carr.  Brady does not let up.  Carr is conservative.  

You should also stop throwing out the Brady's last 2 years in NE are 26/10.  Carr's best 3 years were 32/13, 28/6, and 27/9.   Those were with far superior weapons to what Brady had those last two years with NE.  Brady's career average over 21 years is the same as the average of Carr's 3 best years.