The Zim-Zam Flim-Flam: All Things Zimmer

[Krauser]

8 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

We talked all week about how this game against New Orleans was a huge game for Kirk and Zimmer's image, but I honestly think that this game completely flipped my idea of Zimmer...

Think of every playoff game the Vikings have had with Zimmer at the helm, and I think Zimmer has had borderline phenomenal defensive gameplans. I always said Zimmer earned his one playoff win (prior to yesterday's wildcard victory), since the Vikings got lucky and won a game they probably shouldn't have against the Saints in January of 2018, but should have beat the Seahawks in 2015, if not for a Blair Walsh 27 yard FG miss. And I think that's where it really starts for me, if you flip that game to a 12-10 win for the Vikings all of a sudden you realize how many amazing gameplans Zimmer has had in the playoffs.

In that 2015 rematch he held the same Seahawks offense that dropped 38 points on the Vikings just one month prior to 10 offensive points and gave his team a phenomenal chance to win. Did the weather help the team with that gameplan? Absolutely. But I still think there's no denying the achievement of holding a future first ballot HOF QB to 226 total yards and to just over 27 minutes of TOP. The Seahawks also fumbled twice, but managed to recover twice, while also recovering Adrian Peterson's fumble, and I can't even begin to describe how unlucky that was for Teddy Bridgewater and company.

Then in 2017, despite being overmatched at QB, he engineered a gameplan that held Drew Brees and company to 24 points and again gave his team a chance to win. And again yesterday he came up with a phenomenal defensive gameplan to attack New Orleans gaurds on offense and use Andrew Sendejo in a 3 safety look to compensate for the lack of Mackenzie Alexander and Mike Hughes and held a New Orleans offense averaging 32.4 PPG in game Drew Brees played in to 20 points, giving his team a chance to win.

The elephant in the room is obviously the Eagles game in the 2017 NFCCG, but honestly I think Zimmer had a good defensive gameplan going into that game. He lined Harrison Smith up in the box a lot and challenged Nick Foles to beat him, which going into that game, after their debacle against Atlanta, was a pretty good bet. Foles, unfortunately, just proved him wrong (he would later do the same thing to the Patriots in teh Super Bowl.) Yet, honestly, with how well Foles played, you have to believe that if the offensive line had held up just slightly better in pass protection and Keenum hadn't thrown that pick six to tie the game at 7, the game would've been a knock down drag out fight. I really think Zimmer gave the Vikings a chance to win, they were just too limited on the offensive line and with Keenum to keep up with the Eagles D-Line. There's a bizarro world where that game is something like 21-17 going into the 4th and even if the Vikings don't win, Zimmer is heralded for the job he did...

Excellent post. 

I'll go one step further and point out that Zimmer has had an unusually tough draw in the playoffs so far: 

The 2015 Seahawks were a 6 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFL by DVOA (38.0%) and weighted DVOA (51.1%) -- both of those numbers are dominant, comparable to the Ravens coming into the playoffs this year.  They were also the 2-time defending NFC champions. And as you pointed out, they'd trounced the Vikings in Minnesota a month earlier. 

The 2017 Saints were a 3 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFL by DVOA (30.7%) and 2nd to the Patriots in weighted DVOA (32.9%). 

The 2019 Saints were a 3 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFC by DVOA (29.3%) and weighted DVOA (38.5%), ranking 4th and 2nd in the league respectively in those categories.

In other words, the Vikings have had the toughest possible opponent in the NFC each time they've made the playoffs under Zimmer. And as you point out, he's one shanked FG away from winning all 3 of those games despite bad luck along the way (fumble luck vs Seattle including the ridiculous play by Wilson, and the blocked punt in the Saints game). 

The one game where they might have been considered favorites was the 2017 NFCCG, but that in retrospect was entirely due to the fact that Foles was playing. At the point when Wentz got hurt (week 14), the Eagles were 3rd in the league in DVOA (29.9%) and weighted DVOA (33.9%), both numbers comparable to where the Saints finished the season, tops in the league. Foles had been terrible at the end of the regular season and in their first playoff game (where they were lucky to beat Atlanta). But of course he turned it on in the 2nd quarter vs the Vikings and carried that right through an historic MVP performance in the Super Bowl, scoring 41 points on Belichick's defense. Anyone who could have predicted that Foles could play at that level would've had the Vikings as decided underdogs on the road in Philadelphia, where the team was undefeated all year until resting starters in week 17. 

...and that was the easiest matchup Zimmer's seen so far in the playoffs -- the 41-34 Super Bowl winner, on the road. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Krauser

[TENINCH]

19 minutes ago, swede700 said:

How funny is it now that George Edwards isn't getting any interviews.  It would be nice to see him get some more, considering how critical he has been to Zimmer's defense as well.  Yes, Zimmer puts in a lot of effort, but I'm certain Edwards has his stamp on it as well.  

He's been awesome in the 2 or 3 games he called defensive plays. Love having him.

[since72]

14 minutes ago, Krauser said:

...and that was the easiest matchup Zimmer's seen so far in the playoffs -- the 41-34 Super Bowl winner, on the road. 

That's an interesting perspective.  This year, they could potentially have to beat three 13-3 teams on the road to make it to the Super Bowl.

[PrplChilPill]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

Excellent post. 

I'll go one step further and point out that Zimmer has had an unusually tough draw in the playoffs so far: 

The 2015 Seahawks were a 6 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFL by DVOA (38.0%) and weighted DVOA (51.1%) -- both of those numbers are dominant, comparable to the Ravens coming into the playoffs this year.  They were also the 2-time defending NFC champions. And as you pointed out, they'd trounced the Vikings in Minnesota a month earlier. 

The 2017 Saints were a 3 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFL by DVOA (30.7%) and 2nd to the Patriots in weighted DVOA (32.9%). 

The 2019 Saints were a were a 3 seed, but they were the #1 overall team in the NFC by DVOA (29.3%) and weighted DVOA (38.5%), ranking 4th and 2nd in the league respectively in those categories.

In other words, the Vikings have had the toughest possible opponent in the NFC each time they've made the playoffs under Zimmer. And as you point out, he's one shanked FG away from winning all 3 of those games despite bad luck along the way (fumble luck vs Seattle including the ridiculous play by Wilson, and the blocked punt in the Saints game). 

The one game where they might have been considered favorites was the 2017 NFCCG, but that in retrospect was entirely due to the fact that Foles was playing. At the point when Wentz got hurt (week 14), the Eagles were 3rd in the league in DVOA (29.9%) and weighted DVOA (33.9%), both numbers comparable to where the Saints finished the season, tops in the league. Foles had been terrible at the end of the regular season and in their first playoff game (where they were lucky to beat Atlanta). But of course he turned it on in the 2nd quarter vs the Vikings and carried that right through an historic MVP performance in the Super Bowl, scoring 41 points on Belichick's defense. Anyone who could have predicted that Foles could play at that level would've had the Vikings as decided underdogs on the road in Philadelphia, where the team was undefeated all year until resting starters in week 17. 

...and that was the easiest matchup Zimmer's seen so far in the playoffs -- the 41-34 Super Bowl winner, on the road. 

Of course, if they win more regular season games they get easier draws......

[Krauser]

18 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

Of course, if they win more regular season games they get easier draws......

They were a higher seed than the 2015 Seahawks and the 2017 Saints.

Since Zimmer took over in Minnesota, the top team by DVOA has been the 1 seed in the NFC 3 times: 
2014 (SEA)
2016 (DAL)
2018 (NO)

The other 3 years, the top DVOA teams finished as the 6th, 3rd and 3rd seed. In all 3 of those cases, those teams were the Vikings initial playoff opponents.

Do you know how rare it is to face an elite team like the 2015 Seahawks as wildcard round matchup? They're the 13th best team ever by DVOA, which dates back to 1985. The Packers lost the division to the Vikings that year and had a much easier matchup as the 5 seed, on the road at Washington, the 15th best team in 2015 by DVOA (comparable to playing the Bears or the Bucs in the first round this year, given their 2019 DVOA performances).

This year, the Vikings were better than GB, SEA and PHI by DVOA, a little worse than SF and quite a bit below NO. The Eagles got lucky playing the weaker wildcard team despite finishing in the 4th seed. The Seahawks got lucky playing a weaker opponent as a 5 seed than the Saints got as a 3 seed. Now that the Vikings upset NO, the Packers as a 2 seed get an easier Seattle team (9th by weighted DVOA) than the 1st seeded Niners (Vikings are 7th by weighted DVOA). 

So there is an element of luck. Sometimes you have to face Wilson, Brees, Brees, and the eventual Super Bowl MVP in your 4 playoff games. Sometimes you get end up as a 4 seed playing at home to Josh Allen, or as a 5 seed playing on the road against 40 year-old Josh McCown. 

That's the point: the bottom line analysis ("only won one playoff game in 6 years") is missing context (for one thing, it was only 5 playoff seasons until yesterday, and now it's 2 wins).

The Vikings have played really well in the playoffs under Zimmer, given the quality of their opponents, except for the disastrous 2nd quarter in Philadelphia, which in retrospect was a game they were probably always going to lose given that Foles could elevate his game and Keenum couldn't.

The Vikings have been one of the better teams in the league under Zimmer's tenure. There's no reason to think that firing him is going to improve the situation. 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Krauser

[VikeManDan]

11 hours ago, VikeManDan said:

Absolutely love the relationship these two have.

*I also love how Zimmer seemed ticked off when being asked about winning. Said something along the lines of "I've won 60% of my games as a HC". Obviously paraphrasing but the video above is worth the 4-5 minutes IMO.

This was the quote from Zim. 
 

 

[66PinG]

On 4 January 2020 at 6:35 PM, vikingsrule said:

The Vikes haven’t been playing with a short deck at QB, that’s the problem. Spent a first on Teddy, spent a first on Bradford, and gave Cousins a rich contract. Even Keenum played well enough for them. We’ve spent the resources with little return. Is that a FO issue or coaching issue?

Zimmer has had six years and the team hasn’t produced in the post season. If we’re content being a strong regular season team and beating the teams we should, Zimmer is the right guy. If we want a coach who can get his team to play well in bigger games, win games we shouldn’t, and put together a deep post season run, all signs point to him being the wrong guy.

You forgot Ponder...... Maybe not in the Zimmer era, but still a wasted 1rder.

The last Viking that really scared anyone was Randall Cunningham. Not Bert Favor.

Edited January 7, 2020 by 66PinG

[swede700]

15 hours ago, VikeManDan said:

Agreed. I wonder how much giving up defensive play-calling duties would impact Zimmer's ability to "manage" the game. I would hope it would have a positive impact.

I actually don't think it would.  He seems to be one of those people that needs to do something ("to feel involved") to help manage the game.  I'm not sure he can just strictly stand around and manage it as an observer.  I know I was never able to really do that in my stints in management.  It's just not in my nature.  I need to do something.  I imagine it's the same with him.  And defensive play-calling gives him that.  

[vike daddy]

2 hours ago, 66PinG said:

You forgot Ponder...... 

while watching the Bills' game, i heard the name Leslie Frazier mentioned. damn, i had almost totally forgotten him.

[vikingsrule]

8 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

while watching the Bills' game, i heard the name Leslie Frazier mentioned. damn, i had almost totally forgotten him.

Wonder how that dynamic works in Buffalo. Sean McDermott is the HC who was always known for running more aggressive schemes. Frazier used a bland Tampa 2 in MN. Is Frazier in charge of the defense just as much as Edwards is here.

[swede700]

7 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

Wonder how that dynamic works in Buffalo. Sean McDermott is the HC who was always known for running more aggressive schemes. Frazier used a bland Tampa 2 in MN. Is Frazier in charge of the defense just as much as Edwards is here.

Yes.  I think he initially called plays, but then McDermott took it back over, so Frazier and McDermott is basically the same as Edwards and Zimmer here.  

[66PinG]

15 hours ago, Krauser said:

They were a higher seed than the 2015 Seahawks and the 2017 Saints.

Since Zimmer took over in Minnesota, the top team by DVOA has been the 1 seed in the NFC 3 times: 
2014 (SEA)
2016 (DAL)
2018 (NO)

The other 3 years, the top DVOA teams finished as the 6th, 3rd and 3rd seed. In all 3 of those cases, those teams were the Vikings initial playoff opponents.

Do you know how rare it is to face an elite team like the 2015 Seahawks as wildcard round matchup? They're the 13th best team ever by DVOA, which dates back to 1985. The Packers lost the division to the Vikings that year and had a much easier matchup as the 5 seed, on the road at Washington, the 15th best team in 2015 by DVOA (comparable to playing the Bears or the Bucs in the first round this year, given their 2019 DVOA performances).

This year, the Vikings were better than GB, SEA and PHI by DVOA, a little worse than SF and quite a bit below NO. The Eagles got lucky playing the weaker wildcard team despite finishing in the 4th seed. The Seahawks got lucky playing a weaker opponent as a 5 seed than the Saints got as a 3 seed. Now that the Vikings upset NO, the Packers as a 2 seed get an easier Seattle team (9th by weighted DVOA) than the 1st seeded Niners (Vikings are 7th by weighted DVOA). 

So there is an element of luck. Sometimes you have to face Wilson, Brees, Brees, and the eventual Super Bowl MVP in your 4 playoff games. Sometimes you get end up as a 4 seed playing at home to Josh Allen, or as a 5 seed playing on the road against 40 year-old Josh McCown. 

That's the point: the bottom line analysis ("only won one playoff game in 6 years") is missing context (for one thing, it was only 5 playoff seasons until yesterday, and now it's 2 wins).

The Vikings have played really well in the playoffs under Zimmer, given the quality of their opponents, except for the disastrous 2nd quarter in Philadelphia, which in retrospect was a game they were probably always going to lose given that Foles could elevate his game and Keenum couldn't.

The Vikings have been one of the better teams in the league under Zimmer's tenure. There's no reason to think that firing him is going to improve the situation. 

 

While I agree with most of this, I cannot agree with all of it.

statistics do not take the human strengths and weaknesses into account.

The fact is and remains, the Packers won against MN twice. The second time was not even close.

can they do it a third time? I don't know. Odds would be against them.

Make no mistake, the Packers are a very good team. No team wins 13 of 16 games on luck alone.

are the Vikings better?

Hopefully we will have the opportunity to find out in 12 days, providing they both win on Sunday.

The Vikings are very good, so are the Packers.

[Krauser]

32 minutes ago, 66PinG said:

While I agree with most of this, I cannot agree with all of it.

statistics do not take the human strengths and weaknesses into account.

The fact is and remains, the Packers won against MN twice. The second time was not even close.

can they do it a third time? I don't know. Odds would be against them.

Make no mistake, the Packers are a very good team. No team wins 13 of 16 games on luck alone.

are the Vikings better?

Hopefully we will have the opportunity to find out in 12 days, providing they both win on Sunday.

The Vikings are very good, so are the Packers.

The discussion really has nothing to do with your team.

The point is that the Vikings have had an unusually difficult draw every year they've made the playoffs under Zimmer. 

If you want to play compare:

The 2017 Vikings finished 13-3, got the 2 seed, and had to face the #1 team in the league by DVOA (the Saints) in the divisional round.

The 2019 Packers finished 13-3, got the 2 seed, and get to play the #9 team in the league by DVOA (the Seahawks) in the divisional round. 

2017 New Orleans had a much better OL, much better running game, comparable passing game, and much better defense than 2019 Seattle. They were a much harder matchup.

The 2017 Vikings drew the much harder matchup for reasons beyond their control, despite being a stronger 13-3 team and 2 seed than the 2019 Packers (by points differential, DVOA, PFF grades, etc). That's bad luck for Minnesota in 2017, and good luck for Green Bay this year.

Some Vikings fans wanted to see Zimmer fired because he only had one win in the playoffs coming into this year. But in context, the Vikings playoff record under Zimmer is at least as good as you'd expect given their level of competition. 

 

[VikeManDan]

2 hours ago, swede700 said:

I actually don't think it would.  He seems to be one of those people that needs to do something ("to feel involved") to help manage the game.  I'm not sure he can just strictly stand around and manage it as an observer.  I know I was never able to really do that in my stints in management.  It's just not in my nature.  I need to do something.  I imagine it's the same with him.  And defensive play-calling gives him that.  

That a very fair, and valid point of view. 

Don't get me wrong I'm happy to have him calling plays.

[gopherwrestler]