2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Brit Pack]

This will be quite interesting, Pat McAfee and AJ Hawk doing a draft watch along on draft day obviously and the interesting part is that Aaron Rodgers will be part of that either before the draft starts or during it. If it was during and hearing what Aaron has to say about picks and especially options for the Packers will be cool but if it is just a regurgitation of Aaron's draft story that would a little boring. Any way probably worth checking out and having on in the back ground.
 

 

[Kampfgeist]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Where could you pencil in a rookie and believe they could get significant amount of snaps?  WR, TE, RG, RT, DT, and ILB are all positions that could.  Not necessarily would, but could.

Not a challenge - just a question- what player(s) do you feel would stand in the way of a rookie DB playing meaningful minutes?  

[packfanfb]

Don't often agree with Bukowski's takes but I agree regarding Ruggs. He's going to get over-drafted because he's fast. 

[beekay414]

26 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Don't often agree with Bukowski's takes but I agree regarding Ruggs. He's going to get over-drafted because he's fast. 

He also ran the most diverse route set of any WR in the draft lol. Ruggs is elite. 

[Nick_gb]

42 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

He also ran the most diverse route set of any WR in the draft lol. Ruggs is elite. 

I swear. I've seen some really **** takes on Ruggs lately. Even saw him compared to Darius Heyward-Bey and it's almost as if these people just see a fast 40 and assume that's all he's capable of. 

It would be really nice if people would actually do their homework on someone before making a judgment as if they know what they're talking about as they spread their **** takes to anyone willing to listen. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Nick_gb

[packfanfb]

7 minutes ago, Nick_gb said:

I swear. I've seen some really **** takes on Ruggs lately. Even saw him compared to Darius Heyward-Bey and it's almost as if these people just see a fast 40 and assume that's all he's capable of. 

It would be really nice if people would actually do their homework on someone before making a judgment as if they know what they're talking about as they spread their **** takes to anyone willing to listen. 

I mean no one on this board has the slightest idea what Ruggs is going to become in the NFL. It's all opinion. He's an undersized WR from a powerhouse team where he was never the No. 1 guy defenses worried about. There were games this past year where he was arguably the third best receiver on the field behind Jeudy and Smith. He had two games all year where he had more than 4 receptions. He's got some great skills, but you're still taking a leap at taking him early. 

Personally, I'd take him at 30, but I wouldn't take him at 10-15 like some team will in 10 days. 

[HighCalebR]

I feel like Bukowski just hit randomize and wrote a piece on it to get clicks. It doesnt really make a ton of sense, outside of putting guys where theyre not generally rated.

[packfanfb]

5 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

I feel like Bukowski just hit randomize and wrote a piece on it to get clicks. It doesnt really make a ton of sense, outside of putting guys where theyre not generally rated.

Apparently he based it off an article he wrote regarding college WRs and some historical metrics. May be bs but it was kind of interesting:

 

[HighCalebR]

10 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Apparently he based it off an article he wrote regarding college WRs and some historical metrics. May be bs but it was kind of interesting:

 

So whys he ding Mims? He shines in those categories.

Laviska had to hit the dominator requisite at the age of 20?

Edited April 14, 2020 by HighCalebR

[Nick_gb]

 

 

 

1

30 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I mean no one on this board has the slightest idea what Ruggs is going to become in the NFL. It's all opinion. He's an undersized WR from a powerhouse team where he was never the No. 1 guy defenses worried about. There were games this past year where he was arguably the third best receiver on the field behind Jeudy and Smith. He had two games all year where he had more than 4 receptions. He's got some great skills, but you're still taking a leap at taking him early. 

Personally, I'd take him at 30, but I wouldn't take him at 10-15 like some team will in 10 days. 

I mean no one on this board has the slightest idea of what any player in this draft will become in the NFL. That point could be used about literally EVERY player to ever come out in the draft process throughout the years, nor did I make a claim that this kid was going to be an All Pro in the NFL. I just said there was more to his game then speed and people need to stop looking at his 40 thinking that's all he is, because it most certainly is not. Now, whether he will translate all that to the NFL and become something? I don't know, your guess is as good as mine but he's certainly a prospect I would be really high on and not comp'ing to Darius Heyward-Bey

[Jaegybomb]

So basically it's extremely rare for a WR that is the 2nd best on his college team to turn into a star in the NFL. How often does it actually come up where someone drafted in the first round is the 2nd best on his college team? Feels like cherrypicking stats.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

6 minutes ago, Jaegybomb said:

So basically it's extremely rare for a WR that is the 2nd best on his college team to turn into a star in the NFL. How often does it actually come up where someone drafted in the first round is the 2nd best on his college team? Feels like cherrypicking stats.

Exactly.  It seems to me that it is rare for a team to be that loaded at wide receiver.

I'd like to know how often a player hits those two criteria and busts?   I would bet it is non-trivial as well.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Ragnar Danneskjold

[Dubz41]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Where could you pencil in a rookie and believe they could get significant amount of snaps?  WR, TE, RG, RT, DT, and ILB are all positions that could.  Not necessarily would, but could.

The question posed was 50% snaps. Go ahead and lose the context. It fits your agenda. You do this a lot.

[squire12]

18 minutes ago, Jaegybomb said:

So basically it's extremely rare for a WR that is the 2nd best on his college team to turn into a star in the NFL. How often does it actually come up where someone drafted in the first round is the 2nd best on his college team? Feels like cherrypicking stats.

Breakout age is 20% of passing game production I think.   that is not that big of a share

College dominator is the highest % of the passing offense in college (think it is any season)

 

The data is pretty compelling on the WR that have success.   There are some that meet those and fail, but if you can't dominate in college, it is hard to expect that in the NFL.  

There is the crowded WR group issue that is hard to sift through as the cream should rise to the top.

[squire12]

18 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Exactly.  It seems to me that it is rare for a team to be that loaded at wide receiver.

I'd like to know how often a player hits those two criteria and busts?   I would bet it is non-trivial as well.

There are busts in players that meet them for sure.   It is the not meeting them and being a success (relative to draft capital investment) that becomes more compelling.  

Lets say you only have a 20% chance to be a WR2 or better in the NFL if you miss on those 2 criteria and meeting them gives you an 80% chance of being WR 2 or better.   Those numbers are just for discussion sake.  You certainly want to use those "metrics" to some degree and increase your chances of drafting a successful player.

Feel free to toss me a few names and I can look into the spreadsheet I have on it.