2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Golfman]

3 hours ago, squire12 said:

By cutting or trading him, and accelerating the dead cap from the signing bonus, you reduce your cap rollover.  

Go back three or four pages. @CWood21 and I were discussing this back and forth. It is all explained on those posts. I"m not going through this again as we were only talking hypothetically IF, Tua happened to fall to us. 

[Leader]

2 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Go back three or four pages. @CWood21 and I were discussing this back and forth. It is all explained on those posts. I"m not going through this again as we were only talking hypothetically IF, Tua happened to fall to us. 

He wont - but if he does - its gonna be because of serious medical issues - and I think the draft slot could be used on a player that could provide more immediate impact. 

The AR situation (now) is not the BF situation.  

[CWood21]

19 minutes ago, Joe said:

Uh....you kinda just cherry picked your stats. I said throw out the BYU game and his completion pct on the road(meaning all of his road games combined) is terrible...

I would not put him over Herbert as well as you've alluded to in your last sentence here. I don't doubt that he needs an extra year of seasoning, but his ceiling is pretty low given his lack of mobility. He is, FWIW, #4 on my QB board behind Burrow, Herbert, and Tagovailoa and well above the rest.

Except I wasn't arguing the CMP%, you were.   I was merely pointing out that the game against BYU wasn't the only one where he completed a high percentage of his passes.  If you've got a legitimate reasoning for throwing out the game against BYU, I'm all ears.  But you can't choose to omit data on a whim to support your argument.

I'm not sure how mobility translates into upside.  We've seen guys with limited (to no flexibility) have success, and we've seen incredibly athletic guys who are horrific flops.  I'm more concerned about how Eason operates within the pocket than I am in how fast he can run a 40 yard dash.  Right now, Burrow and Tua are the top 2 QBs by most people (myself included).  #3 seems to be up in the air.  Most view Justin Herbert as the 3rd best QB, but there's a LOT of boom or bust there.  He's either going to be really good, or he's going to be out of the league before his rookie contracts is up.  But the bigger issue is what are you investing in those players.  You're almost certainly going to have to invest a top 10 pick into Herbert.  Eason seems more like a late 1st, early 2nd round right now.

[PossibleCabbage]

16 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Also if teams hold the off the field incident against him.

100% chance there are teams who are already out on him because of it.  But nobody's making a decision about "he's a terrible person, so round 6 instead of round 4" it's a binary with "are we okay with this guy/are we not okay with this guy".  If you're not okay with someone because of character, you're not taking him period.

[Joe]

46 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except I wasn't arguing the CMP%, you were.   I was merely pointing out that the game against BYU wasn't the only one where he completed a high percentage of his passes.  If you've got a legitimate reasoning for throwing out the game against BYU, I'm all ears.  But you can't choose to omit data on a whim to support your argument.

I'm not sure how mobility translates into upside.  We've seen guys with limited (to no flexibility) have success, and we've seen incredibly athletic guys who are horrific flops.  I'm more concerned about how Eason operates within the pocket than I am in how fast he can run a 40 yard dash.  Right now, Burrow and Tua are the top 2 QBs by most people (myself included).  #3 seems to be up in the air.  Most view Justin Herbert as the 3rd best QB, but there's a LOT of boom or bust there.  He's either going to be really good, or he's going to be out of the league before his rookie contracts is up.  But the bigger issue is what are you investing in those players.  You're almost certainly going to have to invest a top 10 pick into Herbert.  Eason seems more like a late 1st, early 2nd round right now.

You're missing the point so I'll reword it and expand: 

Throw out the BYU game because it skews the pct when, in fact, his completion pct on the road was worse than what it was at home; you throw in a blowout win and it masks his overall performance on the road. Additionally, his completion pct as a whole dipped in the second half of the season overall when he played better competition regardless of location and had two poor showings against Utah and Oregon St. I certainly won't argue your point about interceptions as it plays into my point as well for obvious, fundamental reasons. 

I also have to call you on your point about his issues in the pocket; especially if he can't extend plays with his legs. If you really think he's that shaky, then the importance of where he lands significantly increases and he's a far greater risk than Herbert who has proven he can extend plays with his legs. Herbert also has a longer track record of success and charted improvement comparing this season to last. Personally, I think Eason is Nick Foles minus the accolades and would best operate in an offense similar to that of Sean Payton's or Randy Fichtner's in Pittsburgh.

I question the longevity of both, but Herbert is by far the better of the two prospects. 

[CWood21]

12 hours ago, Joe said:

Throw out the BYU game because it skews the pct when, in fact, his completion pct on the road was worse than what it was at home; you throw in a blowout win and it masks his overall performance on the road. Additionally, his completion pct as a whole dipped in the second half of the season overall when he played better competition regardless of location and had two poor showings against Utah and Oregon St. I certainly won't argue your point about interceptions as it plays into my point as well for obvious, fundamental reasons. 

If you're excluding the BYU game, shouldn't you include the Arizona game in which they won by 24.  Either way, it's an insane concept to try and legitimate an argument by ignoring data.  His completion percentage was worse on the road then it was at home.  That's not a crazy concept.  In fact, I'd bet if you went through most QBs, their numbers at home are better than they're on the road.

12 hours ago, Joe said:

I also have to call you on your point about his issues in the pocket; especially if he can't extend plays with his legs. If you really think he's that shaky, then the importance of where he lands significantly increases and he's a far greater risk than Herbert who has proven he can extend plays with his legs. Herbert also has a longer track record of success and charted improvement comparing this season to last. Personally, I think Eason is Nick Foles minus the accolades and would best operate in an offense similar to that of Sean Payton's or Randy Fichtner's in Pittsburgh.

I'm more concerned with how they maneuver in the pocket than how many rushing yards they can get.  Everyone is in love with the idea of Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, but you can be quality passer without being overly mobile.  Drew Brees has made a career out of it.  Peyton Manning made a career out of it.  Dare we pull out a Tom Brady Combine picture?

[Joe]

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

If you're excluding the BYU game, shouldn't you include the Arizona game in which they won by 24.  Either way, it's an insane concept to try and legitimate an argument by ignoring data.  His completion percentage was worse on the road then it was at home.  That's not a crazy concept.  In fact, I'd bet if you went through most QBs, their numbers at home are better than they're on the road.

I'm more concerned with how they maneuver in the pocket than how many rushing yards they can get.  Everyone is in love with the idea of Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, but you can be quality passer without being overly mobile.  Drew Brees has made a career out of it.  Peyton Manning made a career out of it.  Dare we pull out a Tom Brady Combine picture?

I did.

Also, maneuvering the pocket and extending the play both fall under mobility.

[CWood21]

Just now, Joe said:

I did.

Also, maneuvering the pocket and extending the play both fall under mobility.

So...you're removing even more data?  It's illogical to remove data unless you have something to prove that data is meaningless, other than it doesn't fit your argument.  As for mobility, Eason has shown the ability to maneuver in the pocket.  That isn't the issue.  I think the issue is that he's not going to pick up yards with his legs.

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, the thing about quarterbacks is that if you're planning on playing football games outdoors in Wisconsin in January, "arm strength" is probably not the thing you want to compromise on, since it's harder to throw the ball in the cold and wind.  So I wouldn't even look twice at Fromm (who is officially going drafting now.)

[Scoremore]

36 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, the thing about quarterbacks is that if you're planning on playing football games outdoors in Wisconsin in January, "arm strength" is probably not the thing you want to compromise on, since it's harder to throw the ball in the cold and wind.  So I wouldn't even look twice at Fromm (who is officially going drafting now.)

That's true also hand size.   Why Eason is attractive.  QB's don't need elite arm strength to succeed.  Give me a smart QB that can read defenses throw the ball on time and accurately.  In Green Bay weather is a consideration.  In a dome not so much so.  Take a guy like Love strong arm can run but can't read a D and is inaccurate.  Who would you rather have?  Really believe NO is going to fall in love with Fromm as he is much like Brees.  Believe it is unlikely the Packers draft a QB  up high this year.  Herbert would fit the mold but he'll be long gone.  Eason may drop as everyone is in love with the dual threat QB flavor dejour.  I'd burn our 3rd on him if he's still there.  Again unlikely.  Strong possibility Gute trades back this year.  He'll try to maximize his limited draft capital.  So maybe he can engineer a trade and somehow land Eason.  Eason is projected anywhere from late 1st to late 2nd.  He "ll probably end up in New England or Pittsburgh.

[PossibleCabbage]

I genuinely think Love's "accuracy" problem is a mechanics one that's a pretty simple fix, and if you're going to give a guy 2-3 redshirt years he's your guy.  It's not like Utah State is a QB factory with infrastructure to develop these guys.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, the thing about quarterbacks is that if you're planning on playing football games outdoors in Wisconsin in January, "arm strength" is probably not the thing you want to compromise on, since it's harder to throw the ball in the cold and wind.  So I wouldn't even look twice at Fromm (who is officially going drafting now.)

I'd argue there's a baseline for arm strength needed.

[Scoremore]

30 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I genuinely think Love's "accuracy" problem is a mechanics one that's a pretty simple fix, and if you're going to give a guy 2-3 redshirt years he's your guy.  It's not like Utah State is a QB factory with infrastructure to develop these guys.

Think he'll bust.  Intriguing prospect high risk high reward.  Might be worth a look late but some team is going to fall in love with his measurables  and over draft him.  Not sure where he'll go but it might be higher than people expect.  Possibly 2nd round.  If he's there in the 4th I'd take a shot but he won't.  Kid is going to need a ton of work.

[Gypsy1027]

On a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of scouting ability, I rate somewhere in the negative numbers. That said, however, because the subject is quarterback accuracy and later round prospects, I'm wondering if anyone has some thoughts on a guy who looks to be a 5th round type QB. He's James Morgan from Florida International University. Decent height, a wee bit light at about 215, and has respectable numbers. He doesn't throw many interceptions. Maybe a backup challenger?

[mikemike778]

On 07/01/2020 at 2:50 AM, Outpost31 said:

@Golfman, can’t find your quote so I quoted the response to you.  No QB has EVER won the Super Bowl while they were paid higher than 13% of the cap.  Steve Young did it in a year the Niners literally cheated the cap.  

Aaron Rodgers has the highest percentage left in the playoffs.  Kirk has the second most.  Then Wilson, then Tannehill, then Jimmy.  

We’re not winning the Super Bowl this year, and if we do, Aaron Rodgers deserves the biggest GOAT hype train ever.  He would be the first QB to EVER win a Super Bowl paid 15% of the cap.  No other QB legitimately did it 13%.  It’s the biggest reason why I’m convinced we have no shot at all.  But... Miracles happen.  

You need to bear in mind, we are as injury free as we have been for a very long time. There is a relatively small percentage of the cap sitting on injury reserve this season which based on the above argument nets off against the spend on QB.

Other teams with a smaller QB spend , may have more to spend on the roster but if its sitting on IR ...