So, the 2019 Chiefs...

[Hunter2_1]

 

This has been one of the most divisive topics on the forum since the draft. It seems there's quite a sizeable chunk of people who believe the KC Chiefs are poised to drop off. There are also those who believe in their talent and coaching seeing them to the top again.

 

I know a lot will say it depends on Hill, so add that to your logic - take the most likely scenario that you believe.

 

 

[TedLavie]

I don't think a team with Reid and Mahomes as HC/QB combo suddenly drop off below .500. Except if Mahomes is injured, I have to assume 8-8/9-7 is the floor. Defense is still bad, so it should be slightly better than last year simply by the subtraction of Bob Sutton. Last year, what got lost a bit behing the crazy year of Mahomes, is that our interior OL wasn't good, our running game took a hit when Kareem got cut and we had little depth behind Kelce/Hill with Watkins on and off the field. It's even worse this year as we lost Conley (except if Mecole can produce year 1) and Harris. Losing Hill would be huge blow for us.

With Tyreek all year - 12/13 wins is my prediction

Without Tyreek - I think you're looking at a 9-7/10-6 record and a fight for a WC spot / division title (depending on how Chargers do)

[SBLIII]

I think they will be a great football team because their defense I expect them to be average not terrible. The Chargers are good too so the division race will be close but as of right now I think the Chiefs will win that division and end up with 11 or 12 wins.

[Hunter2_1]

I've got consolidation. I think another 12+ win year and Kelce, Hill and Mahomes bamboozle defenses. 

Obviously as a Pat fan I'd like to be wrong, but I see too much talent, speed and good calling.

[ET80]

- I see a slight regression from Pat Mahomes; Nothing horrible, it's just not every day you see 5,000/50 from someone. 

- Tyreek Hill will be released once the NFL suspends him for the year. We'll never see him play football again.

- The defense is still not necessarily what a team needs. Weekly shootouts are still the norm.

- 11-5 to 9-7 is their range, but they're #2 in the division behind LA. It should be good for the #5 spot, but I'm expecting a 1st round playoff loss.

[candyman93]

Tyreek will get suspended and the Chiefs fall to 9-7.

[RaidersAreOne]

35 minutes ago, ET80 said:

- I see a slight regression from Pat Mahomes; Nothing horrible, it's just not every day you see 5,000/50 from someone. 

- Tyreek Hill will be released once the NFL suspends him for the year. We'll never see him play football again.

- The defense is still not necessarily what a team needs. Weekly shootouts are still the norm.

- 11-5 to 9-7 is their range, but they're #2 in the division behind LA. It should be good for the #5 spot, but I'm expecting a 1st round playoff loss.

Sounds about in line with what I'm thinking.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

- Tyreek Hill will be released once the NFL suspends him for the year. We'll never see him play football again.

Even if he's suspended for a year and released, I have a hard time believing at least one team *cough Redskins cough* won't take a chance on the most dangerous weapon in football, backlash be damned. 

[Superman(DH23)]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

- I see a slight regression from Pat Mahomes; Nothing horrible, it's just not every day you see 5,000/50 from someone. 

- Tyreek Hill will be released once the NFL suspends him for the year. We'll never see him play football again.

- The defense is still not necessarily what a team needs. Weekly shootouts are still the norm.

- 11-5 to 9-7 is their range, but they're #2 in the division behind LA. It should be good for the #5 spot, but I'm expecting a 1st round playoff loss.

All of this + we still need to see Mahommes when teams throw all sorts of different coverage looks at him.  Hill is a cheat code, he dictates coverages.  If the Chiefs dont have hill this year (I expect best case scenario they dont) now Mahommes is going to have different looks.  Fangio for 1 is a master of disguising coverages making everything look like a 2 deep shell.  So we need to see how Mahommes handles and adjusts on the fly to NFL DCs gameplanning specifically to confuse him.  Andy will have them in playoff contention bc that is just what he does, but I dont see them in that top tier in the AFC with the Pat's, Chargers, and Colts.

[Superman(DH23)]

6 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Even if he's suspended for a year and released, I have a hard time believing at least one team *cough Redskins cough* won't take a chance on the most dangerous weapon in football, backlash be damned. 

My suspicion is that Hill will be sitting out 2019 on the commish exempt list, so he gets paid but doesnt play.  He will then be suspended for 2020, eligible to return in 2021.  The question is will somebody take a chance on him after sitting out of football for 2 years.  

[KellChippy]

Mahomes should be better with experience but a statistical regression is likely.  Their defense would benefit from a more conservative, ball control offensive pace, but I don’t know if that is in line with Mahomes strengths and Reid’s offensive philosophy.  

I expect they’ll be very good again, but there are some valid concerns when comparing them to other top teams.  I’m very interested to see how their offense evolves this season, especially if Hill isn’t on the team.

I think they will have less regular season wins but will play a more playoff friendly style of football.  

 

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

My suspicion is that Hill will be sitting out 2019 on the commish exempt list, so he gets paid but doesnt play.  He will then be suspended for 2020, eligible to return in 2021.  The question is will somebody take a chance on him after sitting out of football for 2 years.  

I mean, he'll still be 27 years old, still at his peak in regards to his speed.  I could easily see a team taking a chance on him in this scenario.  

[ET80]

59 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Even if he's suspended for a year and released, I have a hard time believing at least one team *cough Redskins cough* won't take a chance on the most dangerous weapon in football, backlash be damned. 

Possible, but given the nature of the crime and the evidence from the audio, I'm not ruling out jail time.

Redskins might get him on board, but it could be until 2021 before the get an ROI on him...

[Nightime]

1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

All of this + we still need to see Mahommes when teams throw all sorts of different coverage looks at him.  Hill is a cheat code, he dictates coverages.  If the Chiefs dont have hill this year (I expect best case scenario they dont) now Mahommes is going to have different looks.  Fangio for 1 is a master of disguising coverages making everything look like a 2 deep shell.  So we need to see how Mahommes handles and adjusts on the fly to NFL DCs gameplanning specifically to confuse him.  Andy will have them in playoff contention bc that is just what he does, but I dont see them in that top tier in the AFC with the Pat's, Chargers, and Colts.

Different coverages? Disguises? You realize Mahomes saw plenty of “different looks” last year?

Teams threw the kitchen sink at him. You don’t throw for 50/5000 if you can’t read defenses. Quarterbacks that cannot, even high flying ones like Goff, eventually get exposed.

Mahomes has the highest football IQ of any Chiefs QB I’ve seen.

23 year old MVP, few (if any) are better at playing QB in 2019

Edited May 18, 2019 by Nightime

[Superman(DH23)]

11 minutes ago, Nightime said:

Different coverages? Disguises? You realize Mahomes saw plenty of “different looks” last year?

Teams threw the kitchen sink at him. You don’t throw for 50/5000 if you can’t read defenses. Quarterbacks that cannot, even high flying ones like Goff, eventually get exposed.

Mahomes has the highest football IQ of any Chiefs QB I’ve seen.

23 year old MVP, few (if any) are better at playing QB in 2019

No teams didnt.  They had to throw basic coverages at him bc of Tyreek Hill.  Unless you want Hill streaking to the endzone, you have to play specific coverages bc of him.  Teams didnt even come close to throwing the kitchen sink at Mahommes.  This year, with no Hill, they absolutely will.