Official 2020 WR Thread

[jrry32]

On 4/7/2020 at 6:22 AM, BayRaider said:

Johnson probably runs a 4.56 40 if he ran it, compared to Jeffersons 4.43. Jefferson will be able to separate on a consistent basis in the NFL. Johnson, not so much. 4.56 is fine is you a physical WR and can fight for the ball, alas DeAndre Hopkins. 

This is a bad opinion. Yes, Jefferson is faster and clearly more capable of separating vertically, but the idea that you need to either run faster than a 4.56 40 or be a physical monster who overwhelms CBs with size and strength to get separation in the NFL is just silly. 40 time is far less important than route running and quickness. Johnson is an exceptional route runner. Here are some WRs who ran a 4.56 or slower and have/had no trouble separating in the NFL:

Cooper Kupp - 4.62 40

Tyler Boyd - 4.58 40

Michael Thomas - 4.57 40

Jamison Crowder - 4.56 40

Allen Robinson - 4.60 40

Davante Adams - 4.56 40

Jarvis Landry - 4.77 40

DeAndre Hopkins - 4.57 40

Keenan Allen - 4.71 40

Antonio Brown - 4.57 40

I'll go ahead and stop there. All of these guys separate through size and strength?

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

This is a bad opinion. Yes, Jefferson is faster and clearly more capable of separating vertically, but the idea that you need to either run faster than a 4.56 40 or be a physical monster who overwhelms CBs with size and strength to get separation in the NFL is just silly. 40 time is far less important than route running and quickness. Johnson is an exceptional route runner. Here are some WRs who ran a 4.56 or slower and have/had no trouble separating in the NFL:

Cooper Kupp - 4.62 40

Tyler Boyd - 4.58 40

Michael Thomas - 4.57 40

Jamison Crowder - 4.56 40

Allen Robinson - 4.60 40

Davante Adams - 4.56 40

Jarvis Landry - 4.77 40

DeAndre Hopkins - 4.57 40

Keenan Allen - 4.71 40

Antonio Brown - 4.57 40

I'll go ahead and stop there. All of these guys separate through size and strength?

I never said it was a death sentence. There will always be the WR's that succeed. Especially the top dogs that you mention, that will succeed regardless. But this is 10 WR's. When you start getting into thousands, the odds of 4.56+ separating consistently isn't too good.

Plus we don't even know if Johnson runs a 4.56. That's basically his ceiling.

Johnson may run a 4.60 like Harmon last year. Harmon was a universal Top 40 Pick last year until he ran 4.60 and got selected in the 6th Round.I absolutely loved Kelvin Harmon, but 4.60 scares me to death. Unless you're an athletic or physical beast.

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I never said it was a death sentence. There will always be the WR's that succeed. Especially the top dogs that you mention, that will succeed regardless. But this is 10 WR's. When you start getting into thousands, the odds of 4.56+ separating consistently isn't too good.

Plus we don't even know if Johnson runs a 4.56. That's basically his ceiling.

Johnson may run a 4.60 like Harmon last year. Harmon was a universal Top 40 Pick last year until he ran 4.60 and got selected in the 6th Round.I absolutely loved Kelvin Harmon, but 4.60 scares me to death. Unless you're an athletic or physical beast.

Outside of arguably Jamison Crowder, I didn't name the tons of WRs who are decently productive but nothing special. Johnson's game isn't speed. We don't know what 40 he runs, and I don't care. In the NFL, few guys get open with pure speed. It's route running, football IQ, quickness, physicality, and savvy that win the day when it comes to separation. Johnson has those attributes. I broke down his route running in the WR thread awhile back. Dude's understanding of how to vary his routes and releases based on the coverage to create throwing windows is next level. His football IQ is off the charts. I think he's the Cooper Kupp of this class. He's not an elite athlete, but he's a great football player who will produce in the NFL.

[Soko]

15 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I never said it was a death sentence. There will always be the WR's that succeed. Especially the top dogs that you mention, that will succeed regardless. But this is 10 WR's. When you start getting into thousands, the odds of 4.56+ separating consistently isn't too good.

The odds of anything in the NFL aren’t too good.

The odds of running a 4.2 and being a good NFL receiver is low too. You can say that about any time or any measurement, good or bad.

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

The odds of anything in the NFL aren’t too good.

The odds of running a 4.2 and being a good NFL receiver is low too. You can say that about any time or any measurement, good or bad.

4.2/Low 4.3 is beyond rare. And when it shows up, it's usually a very unpolished raw/track star converted to the NFL.

That's why Ruggs is quite unique and should be a Top 15 Lock in this draft.

[Soko]

29 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

4.2/Low 4.3 is beyond rare. And when it shows up, it's usually a very unpolished raw/track star converted to the NFL.

That's why Ruggs is quite unique and should be a Top 15 Lock in this draft.

The point is, you can look at any measurement/time and the odds of that translating to success is extremely low.

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

The point is, you can look at any measurement/time and the odds of that translating to success is extremely low.

This would be an interesting case study. If I had to guess, I'd think 3 cone correlated best with football success. That and maybe the short shuttle.

[goldfishwars]

2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

This would be an interesting case study. If I had to guess, I'd think 3 cone correlated best with football success. That and maybe the short shuttle.

When you think about it, there aren't many receivers who have been absolute blazers (sub 4.40) that have gone on to be long-term successes in the NFL. Not without serious injury issues along the way. 

[VanS]

6 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

What gives Chris Simms of all people credence over them?

Have you not read the last few pages of this thread?  Chris Simms hit on both Mahomes and Lamar the last few drafts.  They've only won the last 2 regular season MVPs and he was the only voice in the media that had both rated as the top QBs in their particular classes.  As of now nobody in the media has hit on his bold draft takes like Chris Simms.  So when he delivers a take that diverges from the majority I listen.

[Soko]

39 minutes ago, VanS said:

Have you not read the last few pages of this thread?  Chris Simms hit on both Mahomes and Lamar the last few drafts.  They've only won the last 2 regular season MVPs and he was the only voice in the media that had both rated as the top QBs in their particular classes.  As of now nobody in the media has hit on his bold draft takes like Chris Simms.  So when he delivers a take that diverges from the majority I listen.

How could you possibly question whether or not someone reads when you are known for ignoring the bulk of posts...

Simms is a hack. Two hits don’t change that. And pretending that he’s not one, because of those two hits or simply because he’s played in the NFL (again, putting that loosely) is a joke. A bigger joke than we’re used to with you, but I’m remembering now that you’ll post other guys’ opinions and then fluff them, if you have the same take as them. 

[VanS]

43 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Simms is a hack. Two hits don’t change that. 

Ok now I'm lost.  You need to explain to me why you got so much vitriol towards Chris Simms?  I actually don't agree with him a lot but I've not seen anything from him that merits this sort of reaction.  What has he said that makes him a hack?  To me he comes across as a decent analyst who does a good job being indepedent in his views rather than simply following the herd. 

[goldfishwars]

5 minutes ago, VanS said:

Ok now I'm lost.  You need to explain to me why you got so much vitriol towards Chris Simms?  I actually don't agree with him a lot but I've not seen anything from him that merits this sort of reaction.  What has he said that makes him a hack?  To me he comes across as a decent analyst who does a good job being indepedent in his views rather than simply following the herd. 

You ever considered that guys who don't 'follow the herd' just aren't very well informed? 

[VanS]

1 minute ago, goldfishwars said:

You ever considered that guys who don't 'follow the herd' just aren't very well informed? 

Chris Simms is best friends with Kyle Shanahan (one of the smartest coaches in the NFL).  He played for Jon Gruden (a Super Bowl winning coach).  And served as a coaching assistant for a year under Bill Belichek (arguably the greatest coach in NFL history).  To say he's not "very well informed" is the height of arrogance coming from someone posting on a message board.  I actually don't agree with him often but I would never say he's not well informed. 

Chris Simms has been around the NFL his entire life going back to the days his father played for the Giants.  He's as connected as anybody could be to the NFL.  You can disagree with his takes.  I know I do.  But to call him a hack or not well informed are just ad-homenim attacks with no basis in reality.  

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, VanS said:

Have you not read the last few pages of this thread?  Chris Simms hit on both Mahomes and Lamar the last few drafts.  They've only won the last 2 regular season MVPs and he was the only voice in the media that had both rated as the top QBs in their particular classes.  As of now nobody in the media has hit on his bold draft takes like Chris Simms.  So when he delivers a take that diverges from the majority I listen.

Simms is very accurate with QBs so far (although can't take him seriously with Tua at 4), but with other rankings like WR's, his opinion is not worth much. He doesn't have a great track record with WR's, and there is no way Jerry Jeudy isn't a Top 5 WR in this class. He's in most peoples Top 2.

[goldfishwars]

30 minutes ago, VanS said:

Chris Simms is best friends with Kyle Shanahan (one of the smartest coaches in the NFL).  He played for Jon Gruden (a Super Bowl winning coach).  And served as a coaching assistant for a year under Bill Belichek (arguably the greatest coach in NFL history).  To say he's not "very well informed" is the height of arrogance coming from someone posting on a message board.  I actually don't agree with him often but I would never say he's not well informed. 

Chris Simms has been around the NFL his entire life going back to the days his father played for the Giants.  He's as connected as anybody could be to the NFL.  You can disagree with his takes.  I know I do.  But to call him a hack or not well informed are just ad-homenim attacks with no basis in reality.  

You can be all of those things and have bad opinions on a draft class. You can also be all of things and not put in the required time it takes to build up nuanced opinions on the draft class. 

And if you don't agree with him much on stuff, why do you care so much about batting for the guy?