Official 2020 WR Thread

[SmittyBacall]

4 hours ago, VanS said:

Eventhough I don't agree with him a lot, I'm defending him because I appreciate his independent thinking. 

You’re not defending Chris Simms so much as you’re defending yourself. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by SmittyBacall

[Ragnarok]

Gentlemen, let's get this back to WR discussion.

Thank you.

[jrry32]

16 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

Gentlemen, let's get this back to WR discussion.

Thank you.

You aren't the boss of me. But I will because I want to discuss Tyler Johnson. This is MY choice. 

This appears to be C-3 to me. Watch Johnson run this route to see his football IQ. He's running a 9 route. He clearly knows the coverage pre-snap. Watch how he leverages his route off the LOS. He dips inside, attacks the outside hip of the SS, and sells it as if he's running a short route (watch his tempo and eyes). The safety cheats to undercut the route, the CB cheats instead of dropping off to cover the deep third (Johnson occasionally uses similar leverage on out routes), and Johnson immediately turns on the jets when he sees that. The FS covering the deep middle isn't in position to make a play, and it's an easy TD. But had Johnson just run a simple 9, the CB would have carried him up the field. At best, it would have taken a precise throw for it to be a TD. This is but one example of Johnson's route running and football IQ.

Edited April 9, 2020 by jrry32

[battle2heaven]

So KJ Hamler. A lot of mixed opinions for him. He’s small, but he’s tough, strong and extremely quick. Do you think he can play outside? Maybe not X, but Z position in his wheelhouse?

[sherm]

6 hours ago, VanS said:

Corey Davis and Devante Parker aren't bad.  With that said, gimme Brandon Aiyuk over Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs.  Aiyuk reminds me of Chris Godwin.  He won't be a dominant #1 WR but he can be an excellent #2.

Well if Aiyuk is ahead of those guys and u project him to be a top tier WR2...u must not be high on this wr class? Also if I draft a wr anywhere in the 1st rd...i need more from him than they aren't bad. Godwin is a good wr but I'm not drafting Godwin if I can draft Mike Evans. If I draft a wr in the 1st rd I need him to be top 10 at his position by the end of his 2nd yr.  

[sherm]

1 hour ago, battle2heaven said:

So KJ Hamler. A lot of mixed opinions for him. He’s small, but he’s tough, strong and extremely quick. Do you think he can play outside? Maybe not X, but Z position in his wheelhouse?

Yeah I think he can both in the slot and on the outside. He's somewhere between TY Hilton and Tyler Lockett for me. Don't know if u want him to be your top target but he could excel in the WR2 role. He would be the perfect compliment to Deebo in SF if we don't go wr at 13. He fits the mold of smallish wr Kyle has always had on his teams.

[battle2heaven]

14 minutes ago, sherm said:

Yeah I think he can both in the slot and on the outside. He's somewhere between TY Hilton and Tyler Lockett for me. Don't know if u want him to be your top target but he could excel in the WR2 role. He would be the perfect compliment to Deebo in SF if we don't go wr at 13. He fits the mold of smallish wr Kyle has always had on his teams.

So you would take him at 31?

[sherm]

31 minutes ago, battle2heaven said:

So you would take him at 31?

Naw we would have to trade down some where in the mid to late 2nd rd range. 

[Scoundrel]

4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

You aren't the boss of me. But I will because I want to discuss Tyler Johnson. This is MY choice. 

This appears to be C-3 to me. Watch Johnson run this route to see his football IQ. He's running a 9 route. He clearly knows the coverage pre-snap. Watch how he leverages his route off the LOS. He dips inside, attacks the outside hip of the SS, and sells it as if he's running a short route (watch his tempo and eyes). The safety cheats to undercut the route, the CB cheats instead of dropping off to cover the deep third (Johnson occasionally uses similar leverage on out routes), and Johnson immediately turns on the jets when he sees that. The FS covering the deep middle isn't in position to make a play, and it's an easy TD. But had Johnson just run a simple 9, the CB would have carried him up the field. At best, it would have taken a precise throw for it to be a TD. This is but one example of Johnson's route running and football IQ.

I really hope he does damage at the next level. I just picked him tonight in your BDL draft in the 5th round (71 overall)

[Nex_Gen]

4 hours ago, jrry32 said:

You aren't the boss of me. But I will because I want to discuss Tyler Johnson. This is MY choice. 

This appears to be C-3 to me. Watch Johnson run this route to see his football IQ. He's running a 9 route. He clearly knows the coverage pre-snap. Watch how he leverages his route off the LOS. He dips inside, attacks the outside hip of the SS, and sells it as if he's running a short route (watch his tempo and eyes). The safety cheats to undercut the route, the CB cheats instead of dropping off to cover the deep third (Johnson occasionally uses similar leverage on out routes), and Johnson immediately turns on the jets when he sees that. The FS covering the deep middle isn't in position to make a play, and it's an easy TD. But had Johnson just run a simple 9, the CB would have carried him up the field. At best, it would have taken a precise throw for it to be a TD. This is but one example of Johnson's route running and football IQ.

Not to be condescending, but I think you're over analyzing this a bit. Watch the entire offensive line pull to the right along with the PA to freeze that entire side of the defense. That play is designed to scheme him open. I don't see it as any thing he did on his own, though he did a great job of squaring up and selling the play as a run blocker before taking off up field.

[jrry32]

17 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said:

Not to be condescending, but I think you're over analyzing this a bit. Watch the entire offensive line pull to the right along with the PA to freeze that entire side of the defense. That play is designed to scheme him open. I don't see it as any thing he did on his own, though he did a great job of squaring up and selling the play as a run blocker before taking off up field.

The play didn't scheme Johnson open. He schemed himself open. I have another post somewhere in this thread containing even more videos showing his ability to use his route running and understanding of coverages to create throwing windows. He understands how to manipulate defenders. That's a skill a lot of NFL WRs don't even have.

[jrry32]

Well, with the Brandin Cooks trade, I got to become a kid in the candy store. I immediately starting evaluating WRs I felt we couldn't take (i.e., the second round WRs). Of the guys who might be left on the board in round 2, I'd consider replacing Cooks with:

Tee Higgins

Denzel Mims

K.J. Hamler

Laviska Shenault

2 hours ago, sherm said:

Yeah I think he can both in the slot and on the outside. He's somewhere between TY Hilton and Tyler Lockett for me. Don't know if u want him to be your top target but he could excel in the WR2 role. He would be the perfect compliment to Deebo in SF if we don't go wr at 13. He fits the mold of smallish wr Kyle has always had on his teams.

Hilton had better hands. I think you're getting Ted Ginn Jr. at worst. You can't teach Hamler's instant explosion and top-end speed. He definitely has the quickness to be a great route runner too. He'll just need to polish his craft. His lack of size and play strength will always be limitations, but with his speed, acceleration, and quickness, he can more than overcome it. I'd say his upside is DeSean Jackson, and his realistic floor is Ted Ginn Jr.

[Nex_Gen]

13 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

The play didn't scheme Johnson open. He schemed himself open. I have another post somewhere in this thread containing even more videos showing his ability to use his route running and understanding of coverages to create throwing windows. He understands how to manipulate defenders. That's a skill a lot of NFL WRs don't even have.

His assignment on that play looked to be get into the hole until the offensive line pull and play action crystallizes, so he could take advantage of the defense biting on everything going on in front of them, and turn up field. It was a well designed play against that type of coverage more than anything, and he got open because of it. It helps that both the S and CB completely bit on the run, so they weren't really even in the equation. I didn't mean it as a point to prove you wrong on Johnson. He may or may not exhibit high route running IQ and ability. I just didn't see this one example as a good indication of that. I haven't watched much of Johnson yet because there's been so many other prospects to like. Perhaps I'll take another look.

[jrry32]

7 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said:

His assignment on that play looked to be get into the hole until the offensive line pull and play action crystallizes, so he could take advantage of the defense biting on everything going on in front of them, and turn up field. It was a well designed play against that type of coverage more than anything, and he got open because of it. It helps that both the S and CB completely bit on the run, so they weren't really even in the equation. I didn't mean it as a point to prove you wrong on Johnson. He may or may not exhibit high route running IQ and ability. I just didn't see this one example as a good indication of that. I haven't watched much of Johnson yet because there's been so many other prospects to like. Perhaps I'll take another look.

It's the same thing I noted previously. It's about him understanding coverages and changing how he runs routes based on what how he reads the defense.

On 1/31/2020 at 11:43 PM, jrry32 said:

Tyler Johnson deserves more recognition, so I want to highlight something about his game that really blows me away: his route tempo. Here are four plays:

These four plays show Johnson varying his route tempo. Those variances show just how advanced he is in terms of his route running and football IQ. In the first play, you see a slower tempo off the LOS. This makes sense. It's a play-action passing play with an extra blocker, and Auburn isn't blitzing. Johnson comes off the line slower and throws a little shoulder fake in at the top of his route (to get the DB to move just a little in the wrong direction). By doing so, he gives his QB a large window between the DB covering him and the LB sucked up on the PA fake in which to throw. If he had come off the LOS with a less patient cadence, he would have run himself out of the window before the end of the PA fake.

In the second play, you see Auburn bringing a heavy blitz. You also see Johnson coming off the LOS with a lot more urgency. He knows he has to move quickly to get to the hole in the coverage because his QB is going to have a blitzer in his face. In the third play, Johnson recognizes that he has a one on one against a mismatch and is running a long-developing route (deep double move). He again comes off the LOS with urgency because he knows there is a mismatch to exploit and needs to move quickly in case there's pressure on his QB.

Finally, on the fourth play, we see Johnson come off the LOS with a slower tempo again. It's a PA fake with a lot of congestion in the middle of the field. He needs to give his QB a window coming off the fake. (Well, to be technical, it's an RPO.) Watch him leverage his stem outside to get the CB moving in the wrong direction and then cut back inside at just the right moment to be in a massive window when his QB is ready to throw. If he doesn't leverage this route properly and comes off the LOS with more urgency, he would have run himself into the congestion and prevented Morgan from having a window.

What this shows clearly to me is that Johnson has a high-level understanding of the big picture of what the offense is trying to do and is able to read defenses. Through his route running and route tempo, he's creating windows for his QB. He's also adapting his route based on what his offense is doing, what the defense is showing, and the potential match-up advantages he spots. Johnson isn't just a quick player who runs great routes. He has a high football IQ and a very advanced understanding of how to beat defenses.

 

[VanS]

9 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Simms does exactly what you’re doing. He beats his chest because he was once in the league, despite being a complete failure in that respect. Thinks he’s the smartest person in the room - literally once called himself the most qualified person to talk about the QB position. Rips anyone that disagrees with him. Throws out crappy hot takes on a wall, and yes, some stick but they’re still crappy. He pumps out so much nonsense but because he had a ton of faith in Lamar and Mahomes (the latter of which wasn’t even that controversial), let’s lean on his opinion. For the record, hitting on a prospect doesn’t mean the evaluation was good. 

And I’ll just assume you don’t respond to the rest of the post because you can’t. 

First of all, if he's the only former NFL QB in the room then he's certainly is more qualified to talk about the position than guys who never played or coached in the NFL.  And I would have to disagree with you big time on the Mahomes pre-draft take.  You are letting the last 2 seasons of Mahomes all-time great play cloud your memory.  When Mahomes petitioned the NFL draft advisory board they gave him a recommendation to go back to school because they didn't project him as a 1st round pick.  I remember the lead up to the 2017 draft very well.  The main debate was between Watson and Trubisky for who should be the first QB taken.  Mahomes was an afterthought.  Most people had Watson as the top QB available.  Mahomes wasn't the top QB prospect for anybody in the media other than Chris Simms and Jon Gruden (who was still doing his QB camp at the time).  I remember Todd McShay saying he would take him in the 2nd or 3rd round.  I remember Mel Kiper not being that high on him.  I remember Mike Mayock had Watson as his top QB.  The Mahomes love was coming from just a few teams and it was because a couple of teams loved him that he was projected as a 1st rounder.

I personally had Mahomes rated as a 1st round prospect.  I compared him to Matt Stafford and thought he would be a Pro Bowl caliber player but not really much better than that.  Obviously I was wrong.  He's already looking like a 1st ballot Hall of Fame QB right now three seasons into his career.  When Chris Simms was talking him up before the draft I thought he was insane.  I didn't have a problem with thinking Mahomes was the top QB in the class.  But Simms was comparing him to Aaron Rodgers which I thought was insane.  Chris Simms definitely deserves credit for his Mahomes take. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by VanS