Official 2020 OT/IOL Thread

[Abe56]

if you wanna watch a good underrated center, watch Keith Ismael

[goldfishwars]

7 hours ago, Abe56 said:

if you wanna watch a good underrated center, watch Keith Ismael

Man, I've been trying to get some decent film on him - the amount of awards this dude has coming out of the Mountain West is crazy. Another player I've got my eye on at the Senior Bowl. 

[Nastradamus]

On 1/10/2020 at 10:38 AM, Broncofan said:

Again - the amount of times grades are used by media, posters, and the casual fanbase, as an absolute value FAR outnumbers the grade with context.    Look at most every mainstream article, that simply spouts off the PFF grade, and gives zero context that you & I discuss.     My point stands - it's a simple metric, and one that is used without context by 90+ percent of the ppl who post it.     

People misusing a stat has zero to do with how good of a stat it is. They do the same thing with sacks, tackles, TDs, yards, etc. Nobody is ranting about throwing these stats away though. Its a silly narrative that needs to end ASAP. Thanks for your help in the matter. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

People misusing a stat has zero to do with how good of a stat it is. They do the same thing with sacks, tackles, TDs, yards, etc. Nobody is ranting about throwing these stats away though. Its a silly narrative that needs to end ASAP. Thanks for your help in the matter. 

People praising it as a great stat needs to end ASAP.  The methodology lends itself to that error.   Like how TD’s rarely indicate how good a player is, nor predicts future success.   Thanks for your help in showing the issue too.  

Edited January 12, 2020 by Broncofan

[Nastradamus]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

People praising it as a great stat needs to end ASAP.  The methodology lends itself to that error.   Like how TD’s rarely indicate how good a player is, nor predicts future success.   Thanks for your help in showing the issue too.  

PFF Grade though is a great indicator of future success. Their draft stuff has crushed everyone else lately IMO

[Ragnarok]

12 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

PFF Grade though is a great indicator of future success. Their draft stuff has crushed everyone else lately IMO

Has it really?  Who have they nailed?  Specifically later guys.

[Nastradamus]

1 minute ago, Ragnarok said:

Has it really?  Who have they nailed?  Specifically later guys.

Guys like Thuney, Elgton Jenkins, Jayon Brown, Desmond King, Hurst, Diontae Johnson, Gallup, Dionate Johnsonj, ioannidis.  THey had BYard as the best FS in the class when half the publications didn't mention him

Early being higher on guys like Chris Jones and a tad lower on the Saquon Barkley types, having MIchael Thomas a first rounder etc. 

[Ragnarok]

12 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Guys like Thuney, Elgton Jenkins, Jayon Brown, Desmond King, Hurst, Diontae Johnson, Gallup, Dionate Johnsonj, ioannidis.  THey had BYard as the best FS in the class when half the publications didn't mention him

Early being higher on guys like Chris Jones and a tad lower on the Saquon Barkley types, having MIchael Thomas a first rounder etc. 

Who are they high on this year that you think is on point?

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

PFF Grade though is a great indicator of future success. Their draft stuff has crushed everyone else lately IMO

Uh no.

27 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Guys like Thuney, Elgton Jenkins, Jayon Brown, Desmond King, Hurst, Diontae Johnson, Gallup, Dionate Johnsonj, ioannidis.  THey had BYard as the best FS in the class when half the publications didn't mention him

Early being higher on guys like Chris Jones and a tad lower on the Saquon Barkley types, having MIchael Thomas a first rounder etc. 

That's nice, but if you rank players every year, you're going to necessarily get it right on some guys. The question isn't if they've been right before, it's how they stack up.

[Nastradamus]

9 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Uh no.

That's nice, but if you rank players every year, you're going to necessarily get it right on some guys. The question isn't if they've been right before, it's how they stack up.

Obviously, that's why I started with a comparison of them to everyone else. I have no vested interest in PFF. I read every major draft site yearly(give or take obviously), and have been doing so for a good 20 drafts at this point. PFF has caught my eye more than any draft service for their rankings, sleepers nailed etc. I am aware that I can't convince you of that in a single post, but I simply ask that you note that I said it and keep an eye on it going forward. If you do so, I bet you'll notice the same. 

and yes, PFF grade has been found indicative of future performance, especially in the pros. They're always up on players casuals think are  'breakout players" a good year early. 

[Tetsujin]

On 1/10/2020 at 4:59 PM, Ragnarok said:

I watched Oklahoma 3 times this year and was never impressed by him.

He got abused by an impressive Baylor DLineman (not Roy I think) but that was the 1 of the only bad film I saw of him.

[Nastradamus]

10 hours ago, Ragnarok said:

Who are they high on this year that you think is on point?

Its early in terms of what they've released, but they love Netane Muti and they're probably the highest on Josh Jones. I've found OL to be one of the things they do best. 
Also guys with back to back 90 pass rush grades in college have a great hit rate in the draft(a reason I like a guy like Kinlaw as a near lock to be a stud interior pass rusher and was higher on Chase Winovich than most, lower on Ferrell and Chubb than most). 

Grades are tough in college, but where you'll find their success at other positions is by going off signature stats .Yards per route run is a great stat for any pass catching position Broken tackles caused for RBs(on that note they seem to be one of the few with Etienne at RB1),, Deep passing and passing under pressure for QB. 

Fun one, down the stretch, Higgins, Etienne and Lawrence have been the highest graded at their respective positions(Burrow 1 for the year at QB tho), so a Clemson win would probably make them look good haha. 

 

A classic also - "You can take OJ Howard in the 1st or get an elite 1st round player in George Kittle in the third instead"

Edited January 12, 2020 by Nastradamus

[Nastradamus]

In the end I believe PFF is the best baseline/jumping off point for a convo that we have today, but certainly not the end all be all. I'm definitely gonna take their word over random poster X's eye test if I have to make a life or death call. Most PFF hate is clearly rooted in the fear of new things and new information and its annoying so hence I rant. 

[.Buzz]

Wirfs Thread

Gotta say in the small sample size I like what I see at LT. 

[jrry32]

5 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Obviously, that's why I started with a comparison of them to everyone else. I have no vested interest in PFF. I read every major draft site yearly(give or take obviously), and have been doing so for a good 20 drafts at this point. PFF has caught my eye more than any draft service for their rankings, sleepers nailed etc. I am aware that I can't convince you of that in a single post, but I simply ask that you note that I said it and keep an eye on it going forward. If you do so, I bet you'll notice the same. 

and yes, PFF grade has been found indicative of future performance, especially in the pros. They're always up on players casuals think are  'breakout players" a good year early. 

Again, being right about a few guys is not the same thing as being consistently right. I've watched PFF closely for years. They have their hits and misses, like anybody else. As expected, they're good at telling you who is great and who is bad, but that's the easiest part of the job. They're not that good at sorting guys who fall in between.