ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 The system I'm using to simulate the standings is something I've used over the years to project the outcome of a game based on the season ending stats collected from NFL.com With this system I used team stats to get an accuracy of about 70-77% depending on the year. This year the numbers landed in the middle at 74.7% with a correlation value of 85.9% to the IRL standings and it gets wicked accurate if I remove games where the projected point differential is greater than or equal to 10. Meaning if I remove games that would be considered close games the accuracy jumps from mid 70's to mid 90's. The mid 70% range is calculating all the games played 253 down to only 78 but 74 of those 78 is picks the right team. So I know the system works when the stats are known, now it isn't as accurate as the numbers listed above when collecting stat data in the middle of the season vs the end, but I'll be using this years stat collection to see if I can't refine it, so know that this is a work in progress and will continue to be a work in progress even after we've established this sim. Just like with any other tcmd mock, I'm always looking for ways to improve it and this project get a lot of attention each year as I look to make it better. Because I know that the team stats method works, I'm taking the sum of individual stats to create the team stat to use for this system. However, making a couple changes rather than calculate all the stats for this I'm taking the leaders so for example quarterbacks using Eagles as an example. Carson Wentz PHI QB 279 401 69.6 36.5 3,074 7.7 279.5 21.0 7.0 159.0 39.7 58.0 37.0 5.0 31.0 102.2 Nick Foles PHI QB 141 195 72.3 39 1,413 7.2 282.6 7.0 4.0 60.0 30.8 83.0 14.0 4.0 9.0 96 Nate Sudfeld PHI QB 1 2 50 1 22.0 11.0 11.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 50.0 22.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 129.2 Now Nate may turn out to be a great player but if someone were to use him as their starting quarterback under this system, he'd be an all star, which we can't have that mainly because it's Pete's team but players with minimal stats will not be included even if he's your only qb listed. You're basically playing without a qb under this system. This system doesn't generate stats but manipulates them so if on the passing slider you set him up to throw for 600 attempts for the year but IRL he's only attempted 2 passes and while that two attempts looked good it just wouldn't be fair, because the manipulation is just adjusting his overall stats as if he passed for 600 times so his touchdowns and passer rating would be off the charts. I'll get the qualifying numbers for each position posted this week so that you'll know in advance. Also, since we don't have this years stats to run off of, we'll be using the 2018 stats, so basically when you start building your team look for talent that put up middle of the road attempts or better with solid stats to back them up, basically what you'd look for in a player if you were building your irl team. Because this is just a test run, you may want to rethink how important the younger talent is if the numbers aren't there yet. Hope this helps...Please if you have questions about this are anything related to this simulator fire away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, squire12 said: I am on vacation starting tomorrow though next friday. Fine to start whenever, but will likely miss some picks. Understand....The time slots for each pick will be the same each day, which should help out with those members on vacation. Also, if you need too I'll be around to take big boards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, ny92mike said: You think @Ragnarok would be interested in taking a team? I have less than 3 weeks until the bar. So I'm out until August 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Yes sir, that’ll work @ny92mike thanks for letting me in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Monday please! I will be camping this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Ragnarok said: I have less than 3 weeks until the bar. So I'm out until August 1. You told me this already just forgot. Good luck man I may need to call on you one day...haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 1 hour ago, samsel23 said: Yes sir, that’ll work @ny92mike thanks for letting me in! Welcome thanks for joining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, Deadpulse said: Monday please! I will be camping this weekend Monday it is. I was planning on doing the same this weekend but plans got canceled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 Could someone help me out and look up this list of names and let me know if these guys have retired or are no longer in the game please. I'm matching OTC names with NFL names and I'm not coming up with a match. Player Team Pos Chris Long PHI DE Julius Peppers CAR DE L.T. Walton PIT DE Damontre Moore OAK DE Dexter McDougle PHI CB Andre Hal HOU DB Leonard Johnson ARI DB Maurice Alexander SEA DB Adam Jones DEN DB Keith Tandy ATL DB Derrick Johnson OAK LB Korey Toomer GB LB Martrell Spaight JAX LB Terence Garvin SF LB Barry Church JAX SS Brian Orakpo TEN OLB Kyle Williams BUF DT Jarvis Jenkins KC DT Jerel Worthy TB DT Player Team Pos Mike Gillislee NO RB Neal Sterling NYJ TE Kamar Aiken PHI WR Javorius Allen BAL RB Jamaal Charles JAX RB Robert Turbin IND RB Niles Paul JAX TE David Grinnage JAX TE Khari Lee BUF TE Ryan Hewitt IND TE Freddie Martino TB WR Nick Williams LA WR Jeremy Kerley BUF WR Sammie Coates HOU WR Sam Bradford ARI QB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 DE Chris Long, DE Julius Peppers, CB Adam Jones, DT Kyle William's, LB Derrick Johnson, Those guys are all retired. Those are the only guys I've checked so far. On my way to a job interview Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 (edited) Oh Barry Church is not retired but is currently an FA Edited July 12, 2019 by wwhickok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 I’m still in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Glover Quin retired a few days ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cortes02 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 @ny92mike L.T. Walton is still active from what I can see & is with the Bills Damontre Moore is still active from what I can see & is with the 49'ers Dexter mcdougle is still active from what I can see but no team Andre Hal is retired Leonard Johnson from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Maurice Alexander still active from what I can see & is on the Bills Adam Jones is retired Keith Tandy from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Korey Toomer from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Martrell Spaight from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Terence Garvin from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Brian Orakpo is retired Jarvis Jenkins from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Jerel Worthy from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Mike Gillislee from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Neal Sterling is still active from what I can see & is with KC Kamar Aiken from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Javorius Allen is still active from what I can see & is with New Orleans Jamaal Charles is retired Robert Turbin from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Niles Paul from what I can see is still active but is a free agent David Grinnage from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Khari Lee from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Ryan Hewitt is still active from what I can see & is with the Titans Freddie Martino from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Nick Williams from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Jeremy Kerley from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Sammie Coates from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Sam Bradford from what I can see is still active but is a free agent Hope This helps. Peace!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 Thanks guys. @wwhickok @EaglesPeteC @cortes02 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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