2019 WR Corps

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Yeah that tracks, I was kinda using his feet in the air for shorthand of "his feet are never set correctly".  However, I didn't even really think about the leaning back he does but you're 100% correct.  He leans back and falls away from damn near every throw.  Do you think he does this because he doesn't want to step into hits?  He definitely didn't use to do this consistently in the early McCarthy era, but I can't picture when it started.  I guess I assumed it was him protecting himself, but I don't really know.  Maybe he just needs to actually drill footwork for awhile.

My suspicion is that it's just the "style" he's developed. He throws that way now because he's gotten into the habit of throwing that way. 

I don't know why he started throwing that way, maybe his knee was hurting him and he didn't like putting pressure on it, so he threw that way for a while and he just developed the muscle memory.

Hell, maybe his knee is still hurting him. He wouldn't be the first NFL player in his mid 30s to have messed up knees.

[MrBobGray]

47 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Let's do this:

We've all had the opportunity to state our cases and its clear there are differing POV's here

The Packers go on the road vs the # 2 defense (both points & yards) in the league on Sunday night.
That's a very tall task for a QB with so many issues that it takes up 50 pages just to cover them all
Here's your opportunity to tell us how you think AR will perform on Sunday night.
Let's see how we all do in predicting the future...

The floor is yours...and I'll offer mine after I hear from AG20, Mr.BobGray, Vegas492 and anybody else who'd like to toss in their 2 cents
Then we can revisit on Monday, should be a blast.
Closest stat line wins:  A pat on the back and more of the same
AG20 is already down for a road loss, but I'm more interested in your prediction of AR's performance for this effort

For reference : MVP candidate Russell Wilson was just in SF for a prime time game:
He put up 24-34 for 232 yds with 1 TD and 1 INT and a passer rating of 86.9  (SF defense averages a 72.3 rating in 2019)

As always, I really appreciate your commitment to level-headed discussion on here @Shanedorf.

I just don't really know.  The 49ers pass rush isn't a great match-up for the line; there's a lot of similarities to the Bears group in terms of length and power and we've seen how they handled that.  If they can give Rodgers time, I think there are match-up wins to be exploited, but I wonder if Rodgers will take them.

I'm going to run optimistic here though; I think with the bye week + the 49ers having to play down to the wire games two weeks in a row (one being MNF) I don't think they'll have the same bite they would otherwise.  With two weeks to plan and drill it home, I hope and expect that Rodgers will be a bit more willing to play into the game plan and make a concerted effort to spread the ball.  I personally think the match-up against the 49ers secondary is good for the Packers; they're a big, athletic group but the Packers skill position players are frankly huge (outside of the RBs) and I think they negate a lot of what that secondary does well.  A guy like MVS could eat if he's healthy, as the 49ers don't have anyone who can come close to running with him, and you can just bunch him behind Lazard/Kumerow for some easy releases.

In the end, the realist in me says something like 18 of 30, 290 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT.  The hopeful fool thinks 25-33, 385 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.

[MrBobGray]

11 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

My suspicion is that it's just the "style" he's developed. He throws that way now because he's gotten into the habit of throwing that way. 

I don't know why he started throwing that way, maybe his knee was hurting him and he didn't like putting pressure on it, so he threw that way for a while and he just developed the muscle memory.

Hell, maybe his knee is still hurting him. He wouldn't be the first NFL player in his mid 30s to have messed up knees.

I think you're dead on with the knee.  I think the Bears game last year is pretty telling here; the fact that even without a functioning left leg he could still throw seemingly unaffected would certainly hint he has a lot of experience throwing while not trusting his knee.  

[cannondale]

I have no doubt about the injury affecting things last year. My thought is it would have been sorted out in the off season. Hard to know how much is carry over and how much is Favresque as he fell away from a lot of throws too. Self preservation. You can get away with it as long as the arm talent is elite. 

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

In the end, the realist in me says something like 18 of 30, 290 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT.  The hopeful fool thinks 25-33, 385 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

thx for the kind words above and AR's stat line from 2018 game in SF was 25 - 46 for 425 and 2 TDs to Adams. Packers rushed 21 for 116 and 1 TD.
46 throws vs 21 runs just isn't how this 2019 offense rolls

I'm waiting on my prediction until beer # 3 is imbibed, sometime later tonight

[OneTwoSixFive]

1) I think the bye week was pretty important for two reasons. One, even 'fit' players need rest to get over the pulls and bruises. Two, the extra time allows a longer opportunity to fix things that aren't working so well (like pre-snap penalties on the O line) and possibly more 'scripted plays', as the Packers can often do better in that early first period than later. In addition to that, their own bye week was early, so by now they are (in comparison to the Packers) more worn down.
2) As I and others have said, the 49ers games have been relatively easy to this point, with the exception of Seattle, that they lost. Of course they now face a really brutal series of games to com. Their schedule to date suggests they might not be quite as good as the stats suggest.
3) Pass rush. Yeah that will be tough for our o line to deal with, but the Packers faced a brutal early series of games this season, with many top pass rushers, and survived.

You've probably guessed the way i'm going here. Although it could go either way, I'm guessing it goes 24-20 to the Packers.

[vegas492]

Put me down for a very Rodgers like game.

He's gonna manage this thing.

It won't be pretty at times, because their D-line is very good.

But he's gonna make 3 or 4 very key throws that either win the game, or keep important drives alive.  

[Greg C.]

11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

If we change his pop passes that went for TDs into handoffs that went for TDs, he's having an almost identical year to last year. 

The  QB rating is 5 points higher than last year, which I think is significant, and it would probably be better with more throws into the end zone. TDs and INTs are about the same as last year, as he's on pace for two more TDs and one more INT. Passing yardage is about the same too. Looking at the career stats, I was surprised how productive he was in 2016--40 TD passes, the second most of his career. I don't think of that year as a good one for him because the first half was rather poor, but he was excellent in the second half of the year. One significant improvement from last year is that he is on pace for 34 sacks this year, while he had 49 last year. Part of that is improved OL play, but I do think he is doing a better job avoiding sacks. Intangibles are better this year too, in my opinion, especially leadership. He seems much more positive and team-oriented. He was downright cranky last year. 

[mikemike778]

21 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That 36 year old QB is taking home a ridiculous check to be struggling to kick it out of 2nd gear, and is having the same noticeable problems that he was having with the old offenses. The expectation isn't for him to be God-like, but the expectation is for him to crack the top 5 QBs this year. Holding the ball too long, mediocre ball placement, being unwilling to throw into tight windows, locking in on Davante almost exclusively, being a putz with getting the ball snapped on time, stop me if you've heard all this before, these aren't scheme adjustment problems, these are Aaron Rodgers problems.

The Offensive Line has been adjusting fine. They were the best unit in football through the first 6ish weeks of the year. It hasn't been quite as clean since, but this has been a kickass unit.

MLF's peers are stinking it up across the league because their rosters are garbage. This expectation that we should be evaluating LaFleur as a coach against other 1st year coaches is broken. Kitchens is the only one with a roster with a pulse, and his team has been beat to hell where as ours has been absolutely AMAZINGLY healthy so far.

Stop blaming the system for Rodgers. Stop blaming the schedule: 25th, 11th, 20th, 21st, 27th have been the Points allowed rankings of our opposition since the Cowboys game. 

The Packers have an incredible offensive DVOA because their redzone efficiency and turnover percentage has been absolutely incredible. 2nd in the league, converting 69% of trips into TDs. We've had 35 trips with 24 TDs and 2nd in the league with a TO% of only 5.6%.

The redzone thing is maybe the best thing LaFleur has going for him right now. Ever since the Eagles game, he's taken the ball out of Rodgers hands in the redzone with the exception of scheduled roll outs. Rodgers hasn't thrown a TD to a WR in the redzone since that game, and he's only thrown one to TEs. All the rest have been to RBs. Which if you think about it makes sense, what is Rodgers struggling with, throwing into tight windows, and ball placement, two things you need in the redzone the most.

The turnover thing is definitely a credit to Rodgers. He's not turning it over, which is great, but we're also still seeing a reluctance to take risks to keep the offense on track (19th in 3rd down conversion percentage) and a serious lack of YAC due to ball placement.  

 

This is utter garbage. 

Not sure how many times we have to say this but virtually all of the team's resources have gone into defence. All of the top picks  have gone into defence - we have gone out and spent big money on high end free agents. Expensive pass rushers, we had a stud NT, a rebuilt safety position, top pick corners. Offence gets the leftovers which are mainly undrafted guys as well as tight ends way past their best.

Now defences win championships so to an extent that's OK providing they produce. But its the defence that should be wining games for us. 

Rodgers isn't perfect but at times he has been carrying this team with a receiving group that outside of Adams wouldn't look out of place on a practice squad. Rodgers has missed throws like all QBs do, he has some issues but he has never played with a receiving group as weak as this year so to expect him to be putting up elite numbers is pretty laughable. 

I've been critical of him in the past but there's a pretty good case for saying this is his best ever year. He put up crazy numbers in the past but that was when we were fielding 4 top receivers, back then you may be able to stop our number 1 but your number 4 corner isn't going to be able to cover Cobb. This year, he has had none of that, we've asked him to throw to guys who are basically roster bubble guys but he's got it done.

[AlexGreen#20]

23 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

This is utter garbage. 

Not sure how many times we have to say this but virtually all of the team's resources have gone into defence. All of the top picks  have gone into defence - we have gone out and spent big money on high end free agents. Expensive pass rushers, we had a stud NT, a rebuilt safety position, top pick corners. Offence gets the leftovers which are mainly undrafted guys as well as tight ends way past their best.

Now defences win championships so to an extent that's OK providing they produce. But its the defence that should be wining games for us. 

Rodgers isn't perfect but at times he has been carrying this team with a receiving group that outside of Adams wouldn't look out of place on a practice squad. Rodgers has missed throws like all QBs do, he has some issues but he has never played with a receiving group as weak as this year so to expect him to be putting up elite numbers is pretty laughable. 

I've been critical of him in the past but there's a pretty good case for saying this is his best ever year. He put up crazy numbers in the past but that was when we were fielding 4 top receivers, back then you may be able to stop our number 1 but your number 4 corner isn't going to be able to cover Cobb. This year, he has had none of that, we've asked him to throw to guys who are basically roster bubble guys but he's got it done.

I mean you're just deadass, not even a question about it, wrong. Your entire thesis is just pants-on-head nonsensical.

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending/

This is the single most expensive offense in the NFL. This is the 31st most expensive defense in the NFL.

+++

Rodgers has carried this team in one game. The Raider game. The defense has carried this team in at least the first two games of the season and there's an argument for more. Which realistically when you look at it, Rodgers is within 5% of making the salary equivalent of 50% of the defense. 

Knock it off with disparaging the team's talent to prop up Rodgers. It's sad. This is a really talented roster, and there's more that goes into it than just the WRs.

However, if it's genuinely the WR talent that's holding Rodgers back. Why are his worst games coming when he has Davante on the field? We're averaging 20 PPG when Davante plays and 32.5 when he doesn't??? When you take away the needle away from the junkie, Rodgers starts playing in the scope of the offense and looks like himself again. 

This is not even close to his best year ever. He's missed more throws this year than he did the entirety of 2011 and 2012 combined. He's like 1 for 19 on well thrown deep balls this year. 

 

[ChaRisMa]

I’m ready to talk about the 2020 WR corps.

Tae still every bit as good as 2018. Love that he’s paid, and should therefore be able to say “Forget me, we’re gonna win this thing during this contract” .

MVS still a 9 route or not open/targeted. I understand he works out with Moss. I want to see improvement the second half of the season. Get open on outs and ins. Guys should be afraid of that speed.

Geronimo is a 1-8 route guy. LaFleur also seems to have identified him as a worthy motion man. Works with Rodgers well in the scramble drill. Can’t be counted on to blow the top off a defense alone, tons of injuries including concussions I’ve lost count of (anyone know?). 

Jake Kumerow took the long road here, but has established himself as smart route runner with fine hands. He seems to be a 1-8 route guy as well who has done well enough in a limited role to be notice. Like G-Mo and Tae, he’s N*Sync with 12 on the scrambly whambly.

Allen Lazard also is connected to Rodgers (I want to point out Rodgers seems to have a lot of donnections with the depth of our WRs).  His hands and size have transferred over from college. His foot speed seems to have improved. He’s a 1-8 route guy as well.

Darrius Shepherd failed as both a WR and KR/PR this regular season. He looked oversized and overmatched. Now on the Practice Squad looking to regain form from the preseason that should remind us, for now, the preseason sucks and doesn’t matter.

Equanimeous St. Brown I have no clue how to feel about. I had him as a 2nd rounder coming out. Obviously a bad injury to be IR’d before this season even began. Could use some opinions here.

Malik Taylor, Kabion Ento. Athletes getting redshirted on the PS right now.

[Packerraymond]

On 11/22/2019 at 6:34 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

If we change his pop passes that went for TDs into handoffs that went for TDs, he's having an almost identical year to last year. 

If we change the multitudes of red zone rushing TDs into pop passes, he's having his best statistical year since 2014.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, ChaRisMa said:

I’m ready to talk about the 2020 WR corps.

Tae still every bit as good as 2018. Love that he’s paid, and should therefore be able to say “Forget me, we’re gonna win this thing during this contract” .

MVS still a 9 route or not open/targeted. I understand he works out with Moss. I want to see improvement the second half of the season. Get open on outs and ins. Guys should be afraid of that speed.

Geronimo is a 1-8 route guy. LaFleur also seems to have identified him as a worthy motion man. Works with Rodgers well in the scramble drill. Can’t be counted on to blow the top off a defense alone, tons of injuries including concussions I’ve lost count of (anyone know?). 

Jake Kumerow took the long road here, but has established himself as smart route runner with fine hands. He seems to be a 1-8 route guy as well who has done well enough in a limited role to be notice. Like G-Mo and Tae, he’s N*Sync with 12 on the scrambly whambly.

Allen Lazard also is connected to Rodgers (I want to point out Rodgers seems to have a lot of donnections with the depth of our WRs).  His hands and size have transferred over from college. His foot speed seems to have improved. He’s a 1-8 route guy as well.

Darrius Shepherd failed as both a WR and KR/PR this regular season. He looked oversized and overmatched. Now on the Practice Squad looking to regain form from the preseason that should remind us, for now, the preseason sucks and doesn’t matter.

Equanimeous St. Brown I have no clue how to feel about. I had him as a 2nd rounder coming out. Obviously a bad injury to be IR’d before this season even began. Could use some opinions here.

Malik Taylor, Kabion Ento. Athletes getting redshirted on the PS right now.

Appreciate the breakdown of 2020, it's really as simple as we have Adams and no one else that can be trusted as anything more than subpackage guys though. Allison is a FA and unless he's willing to play for 2-3m per, I see no need to bring him back. MVS is a 40% snap rate #3, Kumerow is a 4/5. The only wildcard is Lazard to me. He catches just about everything and has another average athletic ability for a guy that offer his kind of size and catch radius. We'll see if he's anything more than a Kumerow. EQ is the same as Lazard, just without an opportunity to show that this year.

This roster needs 2 new WRs from draft and FA that ideally bump Kumerow and one of EQ/Lazard from the roster, unless Allison leaves than there would be room for both.

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

If we change the multitudes of red zone rushing TDs into pop passes, he's having his best statistical year since 2014.

Yes . . . those are exactly the same thing. 

Rodgers isn't getting to throw in the redzone because he hasn't found any success in the redzone. This team right now is way better taking the ball out of his hands in those spots.

That's not something you should be saying about a supposedly elite QB. 

[Packerraymond]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

Yes . . . those are exactly the same thing. 

Rodgers isn't getting to throw in the redzone because he hasn't found any success in the redzone. This team right now is way better taking the ball out of his hands in those spots.

That's not something you should be saying about a supposedly elite QB. 

We have no receivers other than Adams who generate separation. Not going to be a red zone passing offense with a crop like we've got. Why Adams targets are so low this year in the RZ is for sure a LaFleur problem. Injury or not, completely inexcusable to have Tae with 0 TDs with as many games as he's played.