Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[TheStarStillShines]

9 hours ago, DaBoys said:

I think Slam would agree that he meant upper tier QB prospects in the draft.  This money ball strategy isn’t really designed for late round development guys like DiNucci. If that was the case then we wouldn’t even need to draft a QB. Just sign a CFL or XFL guy for the vet min. 
 

The Cowboys haven’t spent a 1st rounder on a QB since 1989. That’s the longest positional 1st round drought on our team, and probably the longest first round QB drought in the NFL. We haven’t found a Watson, Mahomes, Allen, blue chip type prospect because we haven’t tried. 
 

If Kyler Murray has ups and downs and limitations, then what does Dak have? I 100% believe you wouldn’t be so low on Murray if he had a star on his helmet. 
 

Kylers 2nd year through 12 games:

3,652 total yards and 32 total TDs

 

Daks full 16 game 2nd season:

3,681 total yards 28 total TDs.

 

Daks the GOAT who deserves a Mahomes contract, but we aren’t sold on the limited Kyler Murray yet.... 

I don’t know why I continue to wear the homer avatar around here. It clearly isn’t me.

 

Using the statistic you like to quote so often - Prescott was 22-10 in his first two years. Murray is just 11-16-1. Dak had better numbers in terms of YPC, YPA, TDs, fewer INTs, higher QBR and rating over those two years. Dak did, however, have a down sophomore year while Murray has gotten better (needs to cut down on the turnovers, though).

But the point isn't about comparing QBs or when to take a QB since QBs are extremely volatile no matter when they are selected (e.g., Plan, Slam, myself, and others were really high on Matt Leinart and boy do we look wrong). My point and others has long been that to focus on Dak's contract as the sole reason why the Boys are yet in another era of mediocrity is simply ridiculous. This argument is beyond myopic since it ignores a bevy of issues with the club. If people want to say that the Joneses' mismanagement of the cap, which includes the handling of Dak's contract plus allocating about about half of the total cap to 6 other players (T. Smith, J. Smith, Zeke, Cooper, Martin, Lawrence), then I'm totally on board. Then there is the questionable coaching, the inconsistent drafts the team has had, etc. One issue doesn't plague the Boys, but rather it's a number of things and it is systemic (i.e., has been lasting for more than two decades). 

[DaBoys]

21 minutes ago, TheStarStillShines said:

If people want to say mismanagement of the cap, which includes allocating about about half of the total cap to 6 other players (T. Smith, J. Smith, Zeke, Cooper, Martin, Lawrence), then I'm totally on board. 

If you want to argue Tyron Smiths’ and Zack Martins’ contract are mismanagement then you can get on board a lonely ship I’ll never be on. Cooper and Lawrence are both decent as well. Jaylon Smith and Zeke? Yeah, they are probably over paid, and yet, they are hitting the 2020 cap for only $16M this year. Half that of Dak. 

[DaBoys]

1 hour ago, TheStarStillShines said:

QBs are extremely volatile no matter when they are selected (e.g., Plan, Slam, myself, and others were really high on Matt Leinart and boy do we look wrong). 

This has NOTHING to do with todays NFL. I’m sorry you guys got burnt so bad in 2005 when the league was completely different. Don’t let that haunt you. Back in 2005 an average NFL passer would throw for just over 3,000 yards. Now the NFL average is nearly 4,000 yards a season. The average NFL completion % was 59.5 and now it’s over 65%! The average ANY/A was 5.3 and now it’s 6.4. The sack % was 6.7 and now it’s only 5.3. The average QBR was 80.1 in 2005 and now it’s 93.4! Passing yards per game was 203.5 now it’s 241. Interception % was 3.1 and now it’s just 2.3. Literally every single stat regarding passing the ball has improved considerably over the last 15 years, meanwhile the average number of attempts per game has increased by just 3 passes. 
 

The more you know! 
 

Damn near every first round QB of the last 5 years has found success. It used to be 3 QBs go in round 1 you may get 1 good one. Now 4 QBs go round 1 and you might get 1 legit bust, 1 serviceable QB, and two good/great ones.

Edited December 9, 2020 by DaBoys

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

19 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

Damn near every first round QB of the last 5 years has found success. 

Paxton Lynch 

Mitch Trubisky

Sam Darnold

Josh Rosen

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins

Those 6 make up half of the QBs drafted from 2016-2019.

Either “damn near every” is a bit hyperbolic, or your definition of success is quite loose.

 

[DaBoys]

4 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Paxton Lynch 

Mitch Trubisky

Sam Darnold

Josh Rosen

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins

Those 6 make up half of the QBs drafted from 2016-2019.

Either “damn near every” is a bit hyperbolic, or your definition of success is quite loose.

 

So with Burrow and Herbert, that you decided to exclude.... MOST QBs work out. And some on your list still have a chance. But keep living in 2003. 

[DaBoys]

Sam Darnold, will get another shot somewhere. It would be interesting to see him on a team that isn’t the worst in the league. Remember he finished last year 6-2 with the jets. He also beat Daks Cowboys. He isn’t a bust yet.

Daniel Jones is still well liked by Giants fans as well. I’ll give you Lynch, Trubisky, Haskins, and Rosen though.

 

So 4 out of the last 16 first round QBs are busts. If you want to count Tua and Love as busts...then okay. That makes 6 of 16. Still way better odds then you dark ages preachers like to let on.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

23 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

So with Burrow and Herbert, that you decided to exclude.... MOST QBs work out. And some on your list still have a chance. But keep living in 2003. 

Lol, I thought I was doing you a favor not including this year’s draft class, considering Burrow and Herbert are a combined 4-16-1 and Jordan Love hasn’t even played yet.

Obviously several of those QB have a chance to be good. And others that qualify as having found “success” probably don’t have much hope in the future (see Wentz, Carson)

I’m just rejecting your assertion that drafting first round QBs are like shooting fish in a barrel. It really isn’t. 

[DaBoys]

2 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Lol, I thought I was doing you a favor not including this year’s draft class, considering Burrow and Herbert are a combined 4-16-1 and Jordan Love hasn’t even played yet.

You were doing nobody a favor but yourself considering you know in your heart Burrow and Herbert are/were having solid rookie years, and look the part. You also understand that wins aren’t a QB stat. Burrow and Herbert have 4x more than Dak, see? And I gave you Love. Count  him as a bust if you want before he takes a snap and we still hit on first round QBs at a 62.5% clip over last 5 years. If we don’t count Love at all it’s 66.6%.  And if Love works out next year then 68.75%. Of course, I guess that depends on how you feel about QBs Darnold and Daniel Jones. 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

17 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

You were doing nobody a favor but yourself considering you know in your heart Burrow and Herbert are/were having solid rookie years, and look the part. You also understand that wins aren’t a QB stat. Burrow and Herbert have 4x more than Dak, see? And I gave you Love. Count  him as a bust if you want before he takes a snap and we still hit on first round QBs at a 62.5% clip over last 5 years. If we don’t count Love at all it’s 66.6%.  And if Love works out next year then 68.75%. Of course, I guess that depends on how you feel about QBs Darnold and Daniel Jones. 

Holy cow man. I can’t keep banging my head against the wall on this, trying to navigate this every shifting conversation.

You said damn near every single QB drafted in the first round has success. That’s just simply not factual.

[DaBoys]

48 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Holy cow man. I can’t keep banging my head against the wall on this, trying to navigate this every shifting conversation.

You said damn near every single QB drafted in the first round has success. That’s just simply not factual.

In the last 5 years is what I said, and 66.6% is damn near everyone. It was your choice to quibble at least know what you’re quibbling over.

6.7 out of 10 QBs drafted 1st round in the last 5 years work out. Or 67 of 100, or 670 of 1000.

That’s damn near everyone, the lions share, the vast majority, the chief part, or whatever makes you feel comfortable. 

Edited December 9, 2020 by DaBoys

[TheStarStillShines]

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

If you want to argue Tyron Smiths’ and Zack Martins’ contract are mismanagement then you can get on board a lonely ship I’ll never be on. Cooper and Lawrence are both decent as well. Jaylon Smith and Zeke? Yeah, they are probably over paid, and yet, they are hitting the 2020 cap for only $16M this year. Half that of Dak. 

Martin's contract is fine. Smith's contract, and the subsequent restructures, is problematic given his poor health. Cooper and Lawrence are paid like top-5 guys at their position, but they haven't delivered.

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

This has NOTHING to do with todays NFL. I’m sorry you guys got burnt so bad in 2005 when the league was completely different. Don’t let that haunt you. Back in 2005 an average NFL passer would throw for just over 3,000 yards. Now the NFL average is nearly 4,000 yards a season. The average NFL completion % was 59.5 and now it’s over 65%! The average ANY/A was 5.3 and now it’s 6.4. The sack % was 6.7 and now it’s only 5.3. The average QBR was 80.1 in 2005 and now it’s 93.4! Passing yards per game was 203.5 now it’s 241. Interception % was 3.1 and now it’s just 2.3. Literally every single stat regarding passing the ball has improved considerably over the last 15 years, meanwhile the average number of attempts per game has increased by just 3 passes. 
 

The more you know! 
 

Damn near every first round QB of the last 5 years has found success. It used to be 3 QBs go in round 1 you may get 1 good one. Now 4 QBs go round 1 and you might get 1 legit bust, 1 serviceable QB, and two good/great ones.

Can you be any more patronizing? And yes, today's NFL is more pass happy. The comment about Leinart had nothing to do with how the NFL game has evolved. It was a comment that even highly-regarded QBs can become busts. You completely misread the comment and offered an observation that even the most casual football fan would know. Congratulations for being bloody patronizing and standing on your soap box.

And no, not nearly every 1st-round QB in the past five years has had success. Let's go through them (we'll omit 2020's class since it's still early).

2015 - Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota - #1 & #2 overall. Both are busts

2016 - Jared Goff, Caron Wentz, and Paxton Lynch - Goff is good but not great; Wentz has had mixed success but has been awful the last two years; Lynch is out of the league

2017 - Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson - 2 studs (an MVP & SB MVP) and a bust

2018 - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson - Mayfield has been up & down. Darnold and Rosen can't see the field. Allen has had a great 2020. Jackson is the reigning MVP, although he's had an inconsistent 2020.

2019 - Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins - one potential franchise QB, the jury is still out on Jones, and Haskins is a 3rd stringer that could be traded in the off-season.

Of the 16 QBs selected, 7 have been busts (I think Trubisky is a bust), two MVPs in the group, and the remaining 7 are middling to serviceable to pretty darn good (Allen). The 2020 class looks good so far, but again it's a bit early. And no, 66.7% by your calculation (mine is lower than that) is not "damn near everyone". If you said, "the majority of QB selected in the first round have worked out", then by your definition you would be correct. Now how you define "worked out" is subject to debate. For instance, I don't think one could say "Darnold has worked out" given the Jets have long been considering replacing him.

Edited December 9, 2020 by TheStarStillShines

[TheStarStillShines]

3 hours ago, DaBoys said:

You were doing nobody a favor but yourself considering you know in your heart Burrow and Herbert are/were having solid rookie years, and look the part. You also understand that wins aren’t a QB stat. Burrow and Herbert have 4x more than Dak, see? And I gave you Love. Count  him as a bust if you want before he takes a snap and we still hit on first round QBs at a 62.5% clip over last 5 years. If we don’t count Love at all it’s 66.6%.  And if Love works out next year then 68.75%. Of course, I guess that depends on how you feel about QBs Darnold and Daniel Jones. 

How the heck do you say, "wins aren't a QB stat", yet still use it when discussing Dak? You even used won-loss record to justify Sam Darnold "working out" for the Jets (BTW, he was actually 7-6 last year and has a career 11-23 record). Talk about hypocritical.

Edited December 9, 2020 by TheStarStillShines

[The_Slamman]

3 hours ago, TheStarStillShines said:

Martin's contract is fine. Smith's contract, and the subsequent restructures, is problematic given his poor health. Cooper and Lawrence are paid like top-5 guys at their position, but they haven't delivered.

Can you be any more patronizing? And yes, today's NFL is more pass happy. The comment about Leinart had nothing to do with how the NFL game has evolved. It was a comment that even highly-regarded QBs can become busts. You completely misread the comment and offered an observation that even the most casual football fan would know. Congratulations for being bloody patronizing and standing on your soap box.

And no, not nearly every 1st-round QB in the past five years has had success. Let's go through them (we'll omit 2020's class since it's still early).

2015 - Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota - #1 & #2 overall. Both are busts

2016 - Jared Goff, Caron Wentz, and Paxton Lynch - Goff is good but not great; Wentz has had mixed success but has been awful the last two years; Lynch is out of the league

2017 - Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson - 2 studs (an MVP & SB MVP) and a bust

2018 - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson - Mayfield has been up & down. Darnold and Rosen can't see the field. Allen has had a great 2020. Jackson is the reigning MVP, although he's had an inconsistent 2020.

2019 - Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins - one potential franchise QB, the jury is still out on Jones, and Haskins is a 3rd stringer that could be traded in the off-season.

Of the 16 QBs selected, 7 have been busts (I think Trubisky is a bust), two MVPs in the group, and the remaining 7 are middling to serviceable to pretty darn good (Allen). The 2020 class looks good so far, but again it's a bit early. And no, 66.7% by your calculation (mine is lower than that) is not "damn near everyone". If you said, "the majority of QB selected in the first round have worked out", then by your definition you would be correct. Now how you define "worked out" is subject to debate. For instance, I don't think one could say "Darnold has worked out" given the Jets have long been considering replacing him.

So what you are saying is that it’s easier to play QB in the nfl in this era.  You are saying that while there is always risk in drafting a qb, over the past 5 years it’s more likely that a qb will work out especially if there is a quality team around the QB.  That’s reasonable.

 

it seems to me that the absolute best thing to do then would be to trade Dak to the highest bidder.  We use the extra draft picks and the $30+ million saved to upgrade the entire roster so the new QB has a great supporting cast.  We take advantage of the low cost QB for the next 5 years.  I like the way you think TSSS.  This sounds like a much better alternative than paying Dak $37M and not being able to upgrade the team.  

[D82]

 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

3 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

So what you are saying is that it’s easier to play QB in the nfl in this era.  You are saying that while there is always risk in drafting a qb, over the past 5 years it’s more likely that a qb will work out especially if there is a quality team around the QB.  That’s reasonable.

 

it seems to me that the absolute best thing to do then would be to trade Dak to the highest bidder.  We use the extra draft picks and the $30+ million saved to upgrade the entire roster so the new QB has a great supporting cast.  We take advantage of the low cost QB for the next 5 years.  I like the way you think TSSS.  This sounds like a much better alternative than paying Dak $37M and not being able to upgrade the team.  

In a world where we had a shot at Fields (which could be this world, but seems unlikely at the moment), I would actually be interested to know what type of offers we could get for Dak vs. what we could get for the pick.