Slappy Mc Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: So you think TKN will back off his willingness to get lynched the closer we get to night? I don’t know. I haven’t seen anything that says he has willingness to get lynched. 5 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: So do they lead the charge or do they not put themselves out there? Those are contradicting statements. The statements aren’t contradicting anything. You need to read better. 6 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: This is a funny stance to take How so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: He's assuming the mafia factions have a nightly kill each. 1 lynch + 1 vamp kill + 1werewolf kill + 1 witch kill + 1 alien kill = 5 12 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: judging by the way slappy's panicking it may be even better than I originally thought... perhaps the mafia factions don't even have nightly kills. but we'll find out for sure after n1. This is my assumption. Pickle talked about finding an open set up to run...announcing there is a SK and everybodies WC but not that the scum factions have kills I'd assume there are no nightly kills other than the SK. It's basically a blend at all costs game for scum imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, The Orca said: This is my assumption. Pickle talked about finding an open set up to run...announcing there is a SK and everybodies WC but not that the scum factions have kills I'd assume there are no nightly kills other than the SK. It's basically a blend at all costs game for scum imo We'll not know for sure until after night 1, but if this is the case, town has a virtually nonexistent chance to lose the game if all vengefuls continue to only self vote, at least until the sk dies. The sk is the key because there's 9 town and only two of each mafia. If vengefuls all follow my strategy (self and only shoot among those who didn't self vote), killing one of us is a 1 for 1 trade at worst. Moreover, if mafia all try to blend in, we just continue to force nls to get sk to do our work for us. We have nine lives though and mafia has only two each, meaning that statistically we have the odds way in our favor to win in this scenario. The only way we muck this up is if we shoot each other. Now, things get a bit more complicated if vig gets shot (which would be dumb for him to not blend into vengefuls). Then we'd need to actively lynch for scum... but not before. If your assumption is correct, we can therefore completely break the setup. That is, so long as vengefuls aren't so awful that they actually try to not self vote. We rapidly lose this edge if even one vengeful shoots another Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Im this confident that this is the optimal play. Thekillernacho lock All fellow vengefuls should do the same and agree to ONLY shoot those who aren't self voting. This is a nearly foolproof strategy. Don't be the idiot who gives up the town's 90+% chance to win try to lynch for scum. Because if you're wrong, we lose two town, and that's the only way we lose. If sk dies or it turns out that the three mafia can kill, we will need to reevaluate . Not before though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Dome said: Hiffo wagga Ruw rarbo wagga lorp lunbun !!!!!!!!!! 1 hour ago, bcb1213 said: Hi guise 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: Im this confident that this is the optimal play. Thekillernacho lock All fellow vengefuls should do the same and agree to ONLY shoot those who aren't self voting. This is a nearly foolproof strategy. Don't be the idiot who gives up the town's 90+% chance to win try to lynch for scum. Because if you're wrong, we lose two town, and that's the only way we lose. If sk dies or it turns out that the three mafia can kill, we will need to reevaluate . Not before though The theory that you have the game figured out on Day 1, a full 48 hours before nightfall, and expect everyone to just roll over and follow blindly is astounding to me. I am the 10-% that you speak of, because I am not going to self vote. I recommend you kill me because that theory doesn’t fly for me. What happens in the event of a tie? Voting patterns are a great way to get a read on someone’s alignement and you are giving EVERYONE an out by saying vote for yourself. Don’t do anything else... Matts has my vote today. Change my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Just now, Slappy Mc said: The theory that you have the game figured out on Day 1, a full 48 hours before nightfall, and expect everyone to just roll over and follow blindly is astounding to me. I am the 10-% that you speak of, because I am not going to self vote. I recommend you kill me because that theory doesn’t fly for me. What happens in the event of a tie? Voting patterns are a great way to get a read on someone’s alignement and you are giving EVERYONE an out by saying vote for yourself. Don’t do anything else... Matts has my vote today. Change my mind. A tie is a no lynch. Which means sk gets to kill. Read my post again. If mafia doesn't have a kill, we have a virtually nonexistent chance to lose by doing this. If they do, we'll reevaluate after day 1. Open setups are more reliant on mechanics than scum hunting by their very nature. And complaining that we'll get less reads this way is ironic considering you said vengeful kills are "random" earlier. Either way, I disagree. Mafia basically have to hard fight this strategy so we'll get some good reads today regardless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 If there's only one death tonight, remember who tries to fight this. Mafia have to fight this or they basically lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 On 9/11/2019 at 10:06 PM, Pickle Rick said: If Lynch voting ends in a tie we will have a 15 minute overtime. (10pm Night deadline = 10:15pm OT Deadline) You may continue to vote for any player during OT, not just the players tied for the lead. If there is a second tie after the 15 minutes there will be no lynch and the night phase will begin So you are suggesting a constant tie through and throughout the entirety of the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 bubsy gadfar bubsy wagga lorp lorp gadfar rarbo peth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 56 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said: Im this confident that this is the optimal play. Thekillernacho lock All fellow vengefuls should do the same and agree to ONLY shoot those who aren't self voting. This is a nearly foolproof strategy. Don't be the idiot who gives up the town's 90+% chance to win try to lynch for scum. Because if you're wrong, we lose two town, and that's the only way we lose. If sk dies or it turns out that the three mafia can kill, we will need to reevaluate . Not before though A Lock 2 days early seems excessive. 38 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: The theory that you have the game figured out on Day 1, a full 48 hours before nightfall, and expect everyone to just roll over and follow blindly is astounding to me. I am the 10-% that you speak of, because I am not going to self vote. I recommend you kill me because that theory doesn’t fly for me. What happens in the event of a tie? Voting patterns are a great way to get a read on someone’s alignement and you are giving EVERYONE an out by saying vote for yourself. Don’t do anything else... Matts has my vote today. Change my mind. If you are speaking to me, Im not going to change your mind off of a pregame joke banter. If thats what you base your vote on, youre being dumb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, SwAg said: bubsy gadfar bubsy wagga lorp lorp gadfar rarbo peth Bcb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 VC 2 matts - slappy, matts 1 slappy - mwil 1 nacho - nacho 1 orca - orca 1 whicker - whicker 1 bcb - dome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: So you are suggesting a constant tie through and throughout the entirety of the game? If it's not a tie, it means someone didn't self vote. If someone didn't self vote and a vengeful were lynched, then the person not self voting would also be killed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Oh boys I am heated. Who wants a tongue lashing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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