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BroncoBruin

2020 College Prospects

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I need to see more from Hurts but I'll keeping a close eye on him. I didn't see an NFL QB at Bama but thy've got something going in Norman, quarterbacks are legitimately developing there. Baker and Kyler were projects who didn't look very good at all at their first stops, and within a few years were NFL ready. 

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20 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I need to see more from Hurts but I'll keeping a close eye on him. I didn't see an NFL QB at Bama but thy've got something going in Norman, quarterbacks are legitimately developing there. Baker and Kyler were projects who didn't look very good at all at their first stops, and within a few years were NFL ready. 

The Oklahoma system scares the hell out of me.  Their QBs are as well protected as any in college football and the system just has wide open players almost constantly.  I remember watching the OU/OSU game with Mayfield a few years ago and literally twice in that game they only sent 2 receivers on routes and one was the RB who caught 2 wide open passes for monster gains.

Kyler while undersized is a special talent with his athleticism so I am really interested in how he develops.  Mayfield isn’t, quite honestly I don’t think Mayfield is a whole lot more physically talented than Fromm.  He’s looked AWFUL in Cleveland when having to face any pressure and had that string of games last season where he was protected and he was able to have success.  His moxy leads him to try and play like Favre/Rodgers and he just doesn’t have the talent.  He’s a rhythm/pocket passer who doesn’t want to admit it.

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16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I can’t deny his tools but man he’s struggled in big games. The AUB game this year was a shining example.  I get he’s on a finesse team playing better trench talent vs. SEC / ACC / Big 10 or even Wazzou teams but as a contrast Darnold balled out in the big ones making big time throws.  I haven’t seen that yet with Herbert which does concern me.  He looks like a franchise QB vs. lesser talent but looks like a mental midget who won’t step into pressure or hang tough vs. the top college D’s.  He really struggled in the stretch last fall I am really going to try and see how he does this fall to see if that’s improved. 

It’s tough because he’s got the pocket passer toolset.  I hope he comes up bigger in ORE’s big games this year.   It would address the one big issue I see (processing / ability against pressure). 

I'm curious to know how you define struggling in big games. Is it merely W/L? Would you say Bo Nix won that QB "battle"?

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Bo Nix 13/31 177 5.7 2 2 44.8
Justin Herbert 28/37 242 6.5 1 0 43.4

This doesn't include the TD drop by Addison in in the 2nd quarter, or the overall pacified play calling in the second half (I don't want to get into that game).

From PFF College entering 2019:

3. Oregon: Justin Herbert

Herbert may have regressed a bit in 2018 but that’s just because his 2017 season reached a level so high, he was bound to revert back to the mean. His two-year grade at quarterback is among the nation’s best and he still is one of the nation’s best deep-ball throwers. In fact, even with eight dropped deep passes (no returning quarterback had more than 6 dropped), he still finished with 942 yards and 13 touchdowns on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield. He was surgical from a clean pocket last year and threw 24 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, both of which are top figures among returners.

He's doing what he can with what he has. This year, missing 3 top targets due to injuries, and he still has better stats than most top rated QB's.

The Ducks dropped 52 passes in 2018. The incompletions cost them 832 yards from scrimmage — about 16 yards per dropped ball.

2019 stats so far:

CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG RTG
96 129 74.4 1,127 8.7 14 0 66 183.6
Edited by carrolljcmc

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28 minutes ago, carrolljcmc said:

I'm curious to know how you define struggling in big games. Is it merely W/L? Would you say Bo Nix won that QB battle?

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR
Bo Nix 13/31 177 5.7 2 2 44.8

From PFF College:

3. Oregon: Justin Herbert

Herbert may have regressed a bit in 2018 but that’s just because his 2017 season reached a level so high, he was bound to revert back to the mean. His two-year grade at quarterback is among the nation’s best and he still is one of the nation’s best deep-ball throwers. In fact, even with eight dropped deep passes (no returning quarterback had more than 6 dropped), he still finished with 942 yards and 13 touchdowns on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield. He was surgical from a clean pocket last year and threw 24 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, both of which are top figures among returners.

Serious Q - did you watch the game, or did you just peruse the stats?    Because there were at least 4-5x where Herbert could have won the game by converting a 3rd down - and came up hugely short with deer-in-headlight reads, or poor throws.  That's what I was referring to in the Darnold reference - even in the L to OSU, he was making heroic plays all game long (and one boneheaded plays).    The L to OSU did more to cement my belief in Darnold's NFL abilities because of the plays he was forced to make.  And before you cite 1 game - Herbert's stock plummeted in 2H 2018 because of the same problem for a bunch of games when scouts were watching him to see if he was worth 1.1 (back when everyone assumed he was declaring for 2019).  The tools aren't in question - does he have the NFL-level skills?  Much bigger Q.

Auburn clearly wasn't ready for ORE's speed early - and Herbert had wide open guys as a result.  Looked great in the 1Q and early 2Q.   By halftime, the AUB D made the adjustments - and Herbert's play went in the tank afterwards.    That's worrisome in a huge way.  When guys weren't wide open, Herbert didn't show the ability to throw guys open, hang in vs. pressure, or even keep eyes up with heavy pressure.  

I don't ding a QB for W/L's - but how their performance in-game matters.   Herbert's play in the 2H last year clearly regressed.    The same high-pressure weaknesses that were there in 2H 2018 were there in the AUB game - and when there were 4-5 game changing plays to be made - he whiffed on all of them.  And not just sacked with no time - he made slow reads, and awful decisions/throws.   AUB doesn't win the game if he makes even just 1-2 of those key conversions.  

Bo Nix was making his first start as a freshman - so he was OMG awful the first 2.5 quarters.     Bo Nix isn't the guy in question we're considering drafting.   Kind of a major distinction, no?  That's an awful strawman argument.

To be clear, I'm not closing the book on Herbert - but man, I want to see him step up in big games, against better teams (because the NFL D's are all better talent situations, not playing the cupcakes) - and come up with bigtime plays.  Throwing guys open, not just hitting guys open by 3-5 yards.   Hanging in vs. pressure and making the tough throw.   Making the anticipation throw before the guy is open and makes his break.  ORE's system is so hard because their speed / spread concepts get guys wide open.  It's a terrible test for the NFL to predict success.   Mariota is a terribly lazy comp, Herbert's a pure pocket passer with a little functional mobility - so I dismiss that talk.  But the critique that ORE's O system limits our ability to project NFL level success (by getting guys so open it's not even close to a test of NFL situations), well it's is a fair one.  That makes high-stakes game situations vs. equal or better talent teams critical.    There, I want to see Herbert making the NFL-level plays in big situations, in tight windows, vs. strong D's before I feel more comfortable in his projection.  And struggles against equal or lesser competition would be huge flags - but successes don't tell us much, given the jump in NFL level competition.  

Herbert had his chances last year as the projected 1.1 darling pre-season and came up woefully short in the 2H with those situations.  He came up that same way vs. AUB after they adjusted to the ORE O system after halftime.    Hopefully he'll make those plays it in the future, I just haven't seen enough of it last year or now.  I really hope we see it, more options would be awesome for us, so I want Herbert to show this, he just hasn't yet, but there's still time.   We'll see.

Edited by Broncofan

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