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Have you given up on Winston?


Slingin' Sammy

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I never believed in him to begin with. Frankly, I'm surprised he's made it this far given his off-field history and on-field play. 

Now, by most accounts he's been ok off-field, so good on him. But I don't think he's ever turning it around in Tampa Bay. 

Edited by ronjon1990
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They're probably 1 of 4 teams that you can confidently say they're going to target a QB in next year's draft.

Cincinnati
Miami
Tennessee
Tampa

Others in play, but may hold off due to incumbents or poor draft position

Pittsburgh
LA Chargers

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I've been a believer in Jameis' talent, but also a guy who recognizes the 2 major flaws he still has, that lead to TO's:

1. Trying the hero play - he's made some amazing, OMG pull-a-rabbit-out-of-the-hat plays (4th and 18 run conversion, dodging 3 CHI pass rushers and unleashing a 50+ yard bomb to Evans) in his first 2 years.  But it also gave him a Superman mentality that's led countless of times to TO's.   

2.  The weird flaw - he misses the underneath guy.  It was responsible for 3 of his picks in the famous @CIN game last year, and 2 of the SF TO's in week 1...and the first opening play pick vs. CAR.  It's not a vision problem, or a read problem, because he makes strong reads on other plays - but it's some weird type of blind spot.

The issue that's not on him - the OL is awful.   It's creating pressure, and on weeks 1 & 6, we saw the flaws come out.   And they're real - and unless he fixes them, then even Arians will cut bait. 

But, before we think TAM is writing him off, consider this:

1.  Arians' system is known to take a full season before the QB gets it - Carson Palmer, seen as Arians' prized pupil, and exhibit A for rehabilitating "lost" causes, struggled horribly in year 1 - and then the light came on in year 2.   People forget that in year 1, Carson Palmer threw for 24 TD's and 4700 yards, career highs - but also threw 22 picks.    And in the 1H, his TD/INT ratio was an uglier 12 TD/ 14 INT.     After that season, Palmer's next 3 years before age kicked in - 72 TD's, 25 INT's.    

2.  TAM's position in the draft isn't likely to get them a top 3 QB - and frankly, as such, they're more likely to hit the deep T class.   

3.  The franchise tag, or transition tag, is a simple 1-year commitment that won't tie TAM long-term.   

The fact that Arians went out of his way to point out benching Jameis isn't an option shows he's willing to see this through.  But no, he's not going to blindly commit to him if Jameis keeps doing this.

The 2019 season has gone down as follows:

1.  Bad Jameis - week 1 vs. SF, week vs. CAR (UK).

2.  Great Jameis - week 3 vs. NYG L (6/6 scores in the 1H, then Arians takes the L there, as he actually played run-out-the-clock for an entire 2H, then played prevent D when the D had sacked Daniel Jones with pressure 5x in the prior 3 drives, and of course, went for a FG when they had the ball at the 8 with 20 secs and 2 TO's left), and the blowup game vs. LAR.

3.  In-between - week 2 @CAR win & week 5 @NO loss - both times, TAM went uber-conservative - but as much as Jameis didn't go hero mode for the CAR W, vs. NO zero TO's, just the O went run-heavy, and while it didn't generate TO's, also didn't get enough juice to keep up with NO's O exposing the big TB weakness (secondary).  

The thing is, Jameis was sold as the NEXT one after Luck - clearly, that's not the case.   And it's pretty clear he wasn't worth a 1.1 pick, either, because of the 2 flaws that haven't changed.   But as he owns the same skillset that comes up with OMG plays and blowup games and 4-5 game stretches vs. decent to good teams (Dec. 2017 as an example), it's why TAM has stuck with him.   He's go the arm talent, ability to read / anticipate, great ball placement, and a gunslinger mentality to hang in vs. pressure and better D's.   But that also has come with the 2 flaws that have negated or even crippled the good he's done.   He's earned the lack of trust, and he's earned the zero-leash treatment.    Now, 2 of the picks his arm was hit as he threw, and the last 2 were desperation plays (4th and 10 with another guy in his face, so had to release it, still a bad throw though - but on the EZ pick, Evans didn't even realize the only play left with no TO's left and 20 secs left was to go the end zone, and so the CB had an easy pick on what was supposed to be a 50-50 ball).    3 TO's of his 6, doesn't matter who the QB is (but before you think I"m making excuses, hold on, there's more)...

Having said all of the above, while there were reasons for 3 TO's that were out of his control - the fact is that he made 4 TO-worth boneheaded plays on his own.   His 1st pick was inexcusable (and again with failure to read the underneath guy), and on the RZ fumble he actually tried hero mode twice in a row and fumbled - the OL recovered the ball the play before.  And he made the wrong decision on 4th and 10, albeit against pressure.   But, in case it's not clear - it's downright awful that he repeated the same mistake the very next play on the fumble.     Here's the thing - there can be as many excuses made about OL pressure, and WR's giving up - but those 4 plays (1 of which didn't result in a TO), especially the 2 in the RZ - you can't do if you want to win games.     Winston can make the right progressions, show amazing ball placement, and hang in vs. pressure, all strong franchise QB traits - but you can't make 3-4 boneheaded TO-worthy plays a game.  He's done that 2x now in 6 games.  That's not good enough for any team.   

Still, the commitment Arians & TAM made, it's not surprising that Arians isn't willing to consider any change yet.   Palmer's 2013 illustrates why.  But Jameis doesn't deserve any trust from doubters, either.  Hard to argue otherwise.    It's not surprising what Arians said on this yesterday...

 

Edited by Broncofan
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