Who is the best WR in the NFL today?

[Cheesehawk]

On 11/16/2019 at 3:23 PM, BroncoSojia said:

Courtland Sutton and it's not close.

Its not close at all. 

Sutton is a beast though and would be in my top 10

[SteelKing728]

Antoni...

Oh wait...in the NFL..whoops!

Hopkins

[sammymvpknight]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/1197558395005485056?s=20

sorry I have no embedding skills lol 

Edited November 22, 2019 by sammymvpknight

[sammymvpknight]

CGM has a higher catch rate on CONTESTED PASSES than the league average on SCREEN PASSES. CGM has a higher catch rate on CONTESTED PASSES than Julio Jones has on UNCONTESTED PASSES. Think about those stats for just a half a minute before answering their question with nonsense. In 2019, there is no argument. 

[Danger]

Gimme DHop

[tyler735]

I must say these results are awesome to see, with Michael Thomas leading the way in this poll, and considered to be a top 3 WR at worst by most people. I was just taking a look at this thread from this past year where several posters appeared to be outraged by us "Homer Saints fans" making claims of Thomas's greatness.

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

46 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

I must say these results are awesome to see, with Michael Thomas leading the way in this poll, and considered to be a top 3 WR at worst by most people. I was just taking a look at this thread from this past year where several posters appeared to be outraged by us "Homer Saints fans" making claims of Thomas's greatness.

 

I think his play this year, especially with 2 different QB's and being as consistent as it has been, has changed a lot of minds (mine, for example). I think Thomas is the best in the league.

[sammymvpknight]

Thomas is on pace for like 160+ catches. It seems make believe 

[Jakuvious]

On 11/22/2019 at 10:40 AM, sammymvpknight said:

CGM has a higher catch rate on CONTESTED PASSES than the league average on SCREEN PASSES. CGM has a higher catch rate on CONTESTED PASSES than Julio Jones has on UNCONTESTED PASSES. Think about those stats for just a half a minute before answering their question with nonsense. In 2019, there is no argument. 

See, I struggle with how to interpret those statistics, though. Because catch rate is just completion percentage when thrown to. So like, Julio Jones has a catch rate of about 65% this year. It isn't like he's dropping 35% of the passes his way, or failing to run his route right on 35% of his targets. Any stat I can find show him with either 0 or 1 dropped pass this year. So the vast majority of that 35% that don't connect are misfires by Ryan, whether they're major or minor. Which makes sense, 65% is a little under Ryan's completion % on the year, and presumably he has a higher completion % to some of his RBs or TEs compared to his deep threat at WR. So I struggle discerning how much stats like that are a matter of usage and how much can actually be attributed to Thomas. Any receiver's catch % is going to be inherently capped by the QB's accuracy rate when throwing their way. And the receiver can help that by getting open, but it's also going to be dependent to varying degrees on play calls, routes run, etc. Like Thomas has 13 targets over 15 yards of depth downfield this year. Julio has 33. That alone will make a huge difference there, and that's just usage and player archetype, not really anything they're controlling by skill.

Thomas is still an elite receiver, no doubt. A big part of him being used the way he is is because he is an elite route runner with elite hands, so using him as a safe, but dominant, shallow threat makes sense. And Thomas may be the best WR in the NFL. I think it's an interesting mix of guys around the league where who you would want most in your offense may just depend on the type of WR you prefer, because like 4 or 5 guys has a niche or aspect of the position that they're the best at. I just don't think the stats about catch rate mean what a lot of people suggest they do. A WR's catch rate is mostly going to be a product of them getting catchable passes.

[sammymvpknight]

8 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

See, I struggle with how to interpret those statistics, though. Because catch rate is just completion percentage when thrown to. So like, Julio Jones has a catch rate of about 65% this year. It isn't like he's dropping 35% of the passes his way, or failing to run his route right on 35% of his targets. Any stat I can find show him with either 0 or 1 dropped pass this year. So the vast majority of that 35% that don't connect are misfires by Ryan, whether they're major or minor. Which makes sense, 65% is a little under Ryan's completion % on the year, and presumably he has a higher completion % to some of his RBs or TEs compared to his deep threat at WR. So I struggle discerning how much stats like that are a matter of usage and how much can actually be attributed to Thomas. Any receiver's catch % is going to be inherently capped by the QB's accuracy rate when throwing their way. And the receiver can help that by getting open, but it's also going to be dependent to varying degrees on play calls, routes run, etc. Like Thomas has 13 targets over 15 yards of depth downfield this year. Julio has 33. That alone will make a huge difference there, and that's just usage and player archetype, not really anything they're controlling by skill.

Thomas is still an elite receiver, no doubt. A big part of him being used the way he is is because he is an elite route runner with elite hands, so using him as a safe, but dominant, shallow threat makes sense. And Thomas may be the best WR in the NFL. I think it's an interesting mix of guys around the league where who you would want most in your offense may just depend on the type of WR you prefer, because like 4 or 5 guys has a niche or aspect of the position that they're the best at. I just don't think the stats about catch rate mean what a lot of people suggest they do. A WR's catch rate is mostly going to be a product of them getting catchable passes.

It’s been something like 190+ catches the last time CGM dropped a pass. 

[Jakuvious]

Just now, sammymvpknight said:

It’s been something like 190+ catches the last time CGM dropped a pass. 

And like I said, he has elite hands. But 0 drops this year versus 1 for Julio or 3 for Tyreek or 1 for Hopkins or even 4 for Cooper is not the reason he's 10 - 20% higher in catch rate than all of those guys. If Julio Jones had 0 drops this year he'd still have a catch rate like 17% lower. You don't get there just by not dropping passes.

[Jlowe22]

13 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

See, I struggle with how to interpret those statistics, though. Because catch rate is just completion percentage when thrown to. So like, Julio Jones has a catch rate of about 65% this year. It isn't like he's dropping 35% of the passes his way, or failing to run his route right on 35% of his targets. Any stat I can find show him with either 0 or 1 dropped pass this year. So the vast majority of that 35% that don't connect are misfires by Ryan, whether they're major or minor. Which makes sense, 65% is a little under Ryan's completion % on the year, and presumably he has a higher completion % to some of his RBs or TEs compared to his deep threat at WR. So I struggle discerning how much stats like that are a matter of usage and how much can actually be attributed to Thomas. Any receiver's catch % is going to be inherently capped by the QB's accuracy rate when throwing their way. And the receiver can help that by getting open, but it's also going to be dependent to varying degrees on play calls, routes run, etc. Like Thomas has 13 targets over 15 yards of depth downfield this year. Julio has 33. That alone will make a huge difference there, and that's just usage and player archetype, not really anything they're controlling by skill.

Thomas is still an elite receiver, no doubt. A big part of him being used the way he is is because he is an elite route runner with elite hands, so using him as a safe, but dominant, shallow threat makes sense. And Thomas may be the best WR in the NFL. I think it's an interesting mix of guys around the league where who you would want most in your offense may just depend on the type of WR you prefer, because like 4 or 5 guys has a niche or aspect of the position that they're the best at. I just don't think the stats about catch rate mean what a lot of people suggest they do. A WR's catch rate is mostly going to be a product of them getting catchable passes.

That's definitely a part of it.  Brees is definitely one of the most accurate QBs I've seen, and Teddy was no slouch in the accuracy department either, on short/intermediate stuff, where Thomas thrives.

But Thomas dominates those types of routes the way I've rarely seen, if ever, and very rarely drops a pass.  Contested or not, he's going to make the catch.

[sammymvpknight]

17 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

And like I said, he has elite hands. But 0 drops this year versus 1 for Julio or 3 for Tyreek or 1 for Hopkins or even 4 for Cooper is not the reason he's 10 - 20% higher in catch rate than all of those guys. If Julio Jones had 0 drops this year he'd still have a catch rate like 17% lower. You don't get there just by not dropping passes.

CGM sees an insane percentage of contested passes. I’m not buying the Julio has harder passes to catch argument. But regardless...CGM is in pace for over 160 catches and 1800 receiving yards this season. And he’s averaging about a yard per reception more than DeAndre Hopkins. It’s silly. 

[Jakuvious]

21 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

CGM sees an insane percentage of contested passes. I’m not buying the Julio has harder passes to catch argument. But regardless...CGM is in pace for over 160 catches and 1800 receiving yards this season. And he’s averaging about a yard per reception more than DeAndre Hopkins. It’s silly. 

Thomas has 12 contested targets this season. That's about 10%. He has 13 targets beyond 15 yards downfield. Julio has 31 and 33 respectively. Hopkins has 23 and 23 respectively. Name a WR and I'll pull the numbers if you want. But Thomas unquestionably gets a higher rate of catchable passes than those other guys due to how he's used. It's not really arguable. Your catch rate is capped by the accuracy rate of the targets being thrown to you. You can only catch 80% of the passes if 80% of the passes are catchable.

Honest question. Why do you think he has a higher catch rate? Because it isn't the drops. The drops make a difference of a percentage or two. So what is Thomas doing that makes him catch 10 - 20% more of his targets than Hopkins, Julio, Tyreek, etc.? Because the easiest answer I can see is the difference in depth of target and the nature of the targets he gets, which lends itself to easier passes for the QB and a higher percentage of catchable balls.

And the point is NOT that Julio gets harder passes to catch. The point is that Julio has more passes that are not physically possible to catch. If Julio caught 100% of contested passes and had 0 drops, he would still have a lower catch rate than Thomas.

 

Edits added for clarity/expansion of argument.

 

[Breesus mode]

I'm taking CGM, but it doesn't hurt Thomas is the perfect fit for our scheme and Drew Brees at this point in his career