Weekly Bets Thread

[Nozizaki]

My new favorite thing is teaser down games I like the spread on, that way I have some wiggle room and can still double my money. This week I teasered by 7 to get a ticket of:

Vikings @ LAC (+10)

Chicago (+11.5) @ Green Bay

Eagles vs Washington (+12)

Cleveland vs Arizona (+9.5)

To be honest, I think the underdog will win all 4 games, but in case of chaos, I like the teaser over a bad beat.

[SmittyBacall]

52 minutes ago, N4L said:

I heard @ET80 say he is fearful of the way Tennessee matches up with Houston. can you post that again? I do love the way Tennessee is playing right now. very complete team who is extremely confident. Henry in the second half is an unstoppable force. I wish the line was -2 rather than -3 because someone is going to go for two at some point in this game. 

I got some good tidbits from listening to Mina Kimes podcast today. I learned that the Titans are one of the league leaders in play action, and Tannehil’s QBR is absurd out of it this year. The Texans, on the other hand, rank 25th(?) versus the play action. 
 

Aside from that, I like Tennessee’s chances of controlling the line of scrimmage. I feel pretty good betting on a red hot Titans team at home, where they’ve already beaten KC.

[ET80]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

@ET80 say he is fearful of the way Tennessee matches up with Houston. can you post that again? I do love the way Tennessee is playing right now. very complete team who is extremely confident. Henry in the second half is an unstoppable force. I wish the line was -2 rather than -3 because someone is going to go for two at some point in this game

It's all about how Tennessee's offense is playing. They're running the ball well, they're passing the ball well, the WRs are big and physical, their TE is as fast as most WRs - given how they're equipped, there isn't a Texans defender who could really put a dent in this offense, on pretty much every level. The OL is suspect, but there isn't a defender who can get to the QB consistently once JJ Watt went down for the season, so it isn't as if Tennessee will have to do much to mask their weaknesses. 

I can imagine that Deshaun does his thing to keep it close, but the Texans O is a notorious slow starting unit - it usually isn't until the 2nd quarter that it gets going, and with the way Tennessee is playing on offense, the Titans could have a multi score lead on their hands by the time the Texans O gets going. Then, the Titans could just play keep-a-way with the moderate passing game and a very healthy dose of Derrick Henry.

If Henry's hamstring is balky, and if Will Fuller's hammy is good, this could change my outlook...

[DannyB]

Wait, this is a betting thread?...

 

 

[N4L]

On 12/11/2019 at 4:48 PM, N4L said:

Not feeling nearly as good about this weeks slate of games as I did last week but here are a few I like:

Rams -1 at cowboys. Cowboys have extra time and are at home, usually that is a good thing, but I don't trust this coaching staff, so I think that negates this advantage. I also think the cowboys have forgotten how to tackle on defense. Their secondary and linebackers are simply not bringing guys to the ground. Rams offense is good at getting the ball to guys in space and I think there are going to be some huge plays where one guy misses a tackle then its off to the races. Rams defense matches up really well with the cowboys and I don't think that dallas will have much success through the air. Dallas has quit on their coach imo

I heard @ET80 say he is fearful of the way Tennessee matches up with Houston. can you post that again? I do love the way Tennessee is playing right now. very complete team who is extremely confident. Henry in the second half is an unstoppable force. I wish the line was -2 rather than -3 because someone is going to go for two at some point in this game. 

I like the over 47 in the niners game. There shouldn't be any rain on Sunday here so that helps the over. If the rain comes, I wouldn't bet this, but if there is no rain I think the niners will put up 30+ on this team. Trufant is out and they have two super young corners that are going to play. Sanders and Samuel should feast. Niners run game should dominate as well. Niners defense is limping right now. We have two good outside corners and a good FS, but our SS is out and his replacement (marcel harris) shouldn't even be in the league from what we have seen from him this year. Our young LB corps have been bad the last two weeks and no one seems to be able to tackle on the back end of our defense. Our DL is a little beat up right now too. Falcons could easily score 20ish points (honestly they are a very live dog too)

Henry didn't practice today with a tight hamstring. I did see him on the sideline icing it on sunday. I am going to hold off on the Titans game and see if he's active 

I may hold off on the niners over as well. As a Niner fan I like what I am hearing about their defense, but Ridley is out, Freeman might not play, Julio didn't practice today. Niners will be down 6 defensive starters, and our backups on the back end have tackling issues, but we still have bosa, Buckner, and armstead up front and Matt Ryan playing outside of a dome doesn't help the over lol 

We also may bench Marcell Harris and insert tarvarious Moore at safety. Harris has been horrendous the last two weeks. yes it was against ravens/saints but it was so so so bad that I don't even want him on my roster next year. Moore played pretty well early in the season before Jimmie ward came back healthy. That switch would change a lot on the back end. 

I am very confident in the niners scoring points and I don't want to get in a situation where it's like 31-14 late in the game and I'm rooting for a score when both teams are content just going home. So, I might just lay the 10 or 11 points if Julio/freeman aren't playing. 

Rams feels like the '1 bet of the weekend' that I really really like. I said before that I really just want 1 or 2 games at most per week. Quality over quantity

[SmittyBacall]

Does anyone play around with player props? The odds are great, and they're fairly easy to hit if you can predict game flow. 

[braylon]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Does anyone play around with player props? The odds are great, and they're fairly easy to hit if you can predict game flow. 

Props are where there is money to be made consistently. Especially with injuries. This is an easier process in the NBA because there is a lot more sudden news and evidence of how teams work with certain players off the floor. I just made a nice little chunk with Giannis out the other day.

[BStanRamFan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Does anyone play around with player props? The odds are great, and they're fairly easy to hit if you can predict game flow. 

That's almost exclusively what I bet lol With fantasy football stats in abundance these days, it's easy to pinpoint teams that favor poorly against certain skill positions.

There are websites (that I won't post the link to, just google it) that will tell which defenses are the worst against WR1, WR2, Slot WR, TE, RB, etc. Once you have those top 5 in each, you can pinpoint which player props you are most interested in. Last night, I had Crowder to score a TD and over 45.5yards receiving. Mark Ingram to score a TD.

My favorite thing to do is parlay player props with favorites i.e. Derrick Henry to score a TD + Titans win and Mark Ingram to score a TD + Ravens win. Great odds for roughly a similar outcome as betting favorites ML. 

[SmittyBacall]

6 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

That's almost exclusively what I bet lol With fantasy football stats in abundance these days, it's easy to pinpoint teams that favor poorly against certain skill positions.

There are websites (that I won't post the link to, just google it) that will tell which defenses are the worst against WR1, WR2, Slot WR, TE, RB, etc. Once you have those top 5 in each, you can pinpoint which player props you are most interested in. Last night, I had Crowder to score a TD and over 45.5yards receiving. Mark Ingram to score a TD.

My favorite thing to do is parlay player props with favorites i.e. Derrick Henry to score a TD + Titans win and Mark Ingram to score a TD + Ravens win. Great odds for roughly a similar outcome as betting favorites ML. 

Agreed. I hate how on Bet365 you can’t parlay multiple player props from the same game. Where do you bet?

Also, DM me the link?

[BStanRamFan]

7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Agreed. I hate how on Bet365 you can’t parlay multiple player props from the same game. Where do you bet?

Also, DM me the link?

I'm in NJ where sportsbetting is legal, so I bet through FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings sportsbook. Both legal sites and allow player prop parlays(either one per game or multiple in same game, but not both).

I don't want to get the thread locked because the Admins said no posting links. But I would just Google "Fantasy Football Defense vs. Position" and multiple sites will pop up with Fantasy football stats. I'm just using them for my betting strategy. 

For example, the Cards rank 32 vs TE's this season in Fantasy stats. If Njoku is playing, hammer his over in yards or maybe a Ricky Seals Jones TD? probably get 4-1. Possibly more. 

[SmittyBacall]

Props I like...

Kenny Golladay vs. TB - over 4.5 receptions (-110) - At home. Should be a shootout. Marvin Jones out. TB gives up nothing vs the run and everything vs the pass. Volume pick.

Robert Woods @ DAL - over 5.5 receptions (-125) - On a tear lately. Plays nearly every snap in Rams new 12 personnel. Screen passes galore. Shootout potential.

Zach Ertz @ WAS - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - Eagles have no receivers to field. Ertz will get peppered with targets. 

Aaron Jones vs CHI - over 3.5 receptions (+130) - Jones is hot. 2nd on team in targets and receptions behind Adams.

DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 6.5 receptions (+120) - Shootout potential. Watson and Hopkins will need to go hero-mode to win. Titans corners are struggling.

DK Metcalf @ CAR - over 3.4 receptions (-175) - Carolina second last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring.

Jarvis Landry @ ARI - over 5.5 receptions (-110) - Arizona last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring. Baker's most reliable target.

Hunter Henry vs MIN - over 3.5 receptions (-175) - At home. Minnesota allowing 5th most receptions to TEs.

Emmanuel Sanders vs ATL - over 4.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Atlanta 9th in allowing WR receptions. Just lost Desmond Trufant. Potentially high-scoring as Niners are leaking lately.

Philip Lindsay @ KC - over 14.5 receiving yards (-115) - KC allowing 6th most receptions to RBs.

DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 80.5 receiving yards (-120) - See receptions.

Keenan Allen vs MIN - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Minnesota allowing 4th most receptions to WRs. 

 

@BStanRamFan @N4L - Approve?

Edited December 14, 2019 by SmittyBacall

[N4L]

Keep in mind with that many bets (12) that you basically have to win 8 or 9 of them to make any money lol 

All of those look good though. Can't argue with any of them other than maybe the DK and golladay ones  

[sp6488]

On 12/13/2019 at 9:39 AM, BStanRamFan said:

That's almost exclusively what I bet lol With fantasy football stats in abundance these days, it's easy to pinpoint teams that favor poorly against certain skill positions.

There are websites (that I won't post the link to, just google it) that will tell which defenses are the worst against WR1, WR2, Slot WR, TE, RB, etc. Once you have those top 5 in each, you can pinpoint which player props you are most interested in. Last night, I had Crowder to score a TD and over 45.5yards receiving. Mark Ingram to score a TD.

My favorite thing to do is parlay player props with favorites i.e. Derrick Henry to score a TD + Titans win and Mark Ingram to score a TD + Ravens win. Great odds for roughly a similar outcome as betting favorites ML. 

Interesting. Basically creating an alternative correlated parlay (Traditional being a significant line in a give direction with the O/U)

[KOTN-93]

3 lines junped at me.

Eagles-Redskins O/U 39. ' Defintely take the under. Both offenses look terrible right now.

I also like Tennessee despite giving 3 to Tennessee. Top level offense with Tanny with a good defense. Give me TEN.

Finally I get KC is at home but giving 10 to a confident Bronco team is a big number imo. Give me the points.

Odds via CBS Sports

[BStanRamFan]

20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Props I like...

Kenny Golladay vs. TB - over 4.5 receptions (-110) - At home. Should be a shootout. Marvin Jones out. TB gives up nothing vs the run and everything vs the pass. Volume pick.

Robert Woods @ DAL - over 5.5 receptions (-125) - On a tear lately. Plays nearly every snap in Rams new 12 personnel. Screen passes galore. Shootout potential.

Zach Ertz @ WAS - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - Eagles have no receivers to field. Ertz will get peppered with targets. 

Aaron Jones vs CHI - over 3.5 receptions (+130) - Jones is hot. 2nd on team in targets and receptions behind Adams.

DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 6.5 receptions (+120) - Shootout potential. Watson and Hopkins will need to go hero-mode to win. Titans corners are struggling.

DK Metcalf @ CAR - over 3.4 receptions (-175) - Carolina second last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring.

Jarvis Landry @ ARI - over 5.5 receptions (-110) - Arizona last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring. Baker's most reliable target.

Hunter Henry vs MIN - over 3.5 receptions (-175) - At home. Minnesota allowing 5th most receptions to TEs.

Emmanuel Sanders vs ATL - over 4.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Atlanta 9th in allowing WR receptions. Just lost Desmond Trufant. Potentially high-scoring as Niners are leaking lately.

Philip Lindsay @ KC - over 14.5 receiving yards (-115) - KC allowing 6th most receptions to RBs.

DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 80.5 receiving yards (-120) - See receptions.

Keenan Allen vs MIN - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Minnesota allowing 4th most receptions to WRs. 

 

@BStanRamFan @N4L - Approve?

All of that makese sense, but the trend of all Overs scares me. Books will inflate the Over knowing that bettors genuniely lean the way of more scoring, more everything ,etc because it is exciting. That would be my only advice. Throw in some unders.