Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

They have TERRIBLE lane control.   The following 4 QB's have rushed for 30+ yards (and didn't need many carries):

Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Taylor Heinecke, Jameis Winston

The 3 that didn't - Joe Burrow (who's not supposed to be running), Big Ben (LOL) & JimmyG (also not running).  

I hear you on Kyler running less, but it's not about him, or that GB is a shutdown D.  It's that the Pack's pass rush can create some pressure, but it also creates big running lanes.   With Kyler, you only need 3 plays to hit that, might only need 2.   And that's before we get to designed RPO's where Kyler might keep the ball & take off on his own.  I like those odds.

More than fair rebuttal. Something will have to give tonight. 

[N4L]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I might be careful with this one. Kyler seems to have a focus on getting the ball to his playmakers. He's only hit the over in 2 games this season and he's only compiled 17 rushing yards over the last 3 weeks. 

I don't know if Green Bay has the type of pass rush or lockdown corners to force Kyler into that tonight. 

Kyler has been running... just not running forward. He has been scrambling around A LOT. So its not as if he is hurt or something and that is the reason he isnt getting many rushing yards, he has the ability to rush but just isnt doing it

as @Broncofan has said, the packers have given up a ton of rushing yards to QBs, including letting Hienicke rush for 90+ last week. I get that GB may gameplan for kylers rushing while they didnt for Hienicke, but if they do that they are leaving themselves exposed on the backend considering how many weapons the cards have and considering their issues in the secondary. I dont think Kyler will hesitate to take off and run a couple of times tonight. Its not like he takes a lot of hits when he does run

The cards also have had a lot of big leads this year so the fact that I expect green bay to slow the game down and control the clock should present rushing opportunities for Kyler, because the game will be a lot closer and he may press to run more than normal because he is getting less possessions  

[SaveOurSonics]

15 minutes ago, N4L said:

Kyler has been running... just not running forward. He has been scrambling around A LOT. So its not as if he is hurt or something and that is the reason he isnt getting many rushing yards, he has the ability to rush but just isnt doing it

Ya I don't think it's a bad bet. Was just offering my perspective on it but I like your guys' rationale. If there's a matchup for him to hit it in spite of recent tendencies, this would appear to be the one.

[Rainmaker90]

I have 
 

St Brown 

Aj Dillon 

Cobb 

Kyler 

 

for first TD. 
 

What does everyone think about Tampa 5.5 at NO? 

[N4L]

5 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Ya I don't think it's a bad bet. Was just offering my perspective on it but I like your guys' rationale. If there's a matchup for him to hit it in spite of recent tendencies, this would appear to be the one.

Its completely fair commentary on your part and I do encourage the discourse. He has not been running and there is absolutely a scenario where he doesnt run, even if its wide open. He said in the offseason he didnt want to run as much, so the fact he isnt running as much is absolutely a conscious decision that he made. So there is definitely a lot of risk in the bet. 

Its funny that we spent so much time talking about it because I like the aaron jones receiving yards/catches overs better lol 

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan Didn’t see Malik Taylor play one snap all half, but…

After that Winfree drop on the final drive before the half Rodgers was all over him. Next play, Malik is in for the hail mary. Hopefully that means he’s the next man up.

[SmittyBacall]

Just now, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Didn’t see Malik Taylor play one snap all half, but…

After that Winfree drop on the final drive before the half Rodgers was all over him. Next play, Malik is in for the hail mary. Hopefully that means he’s the next man up.

Also this:

 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Didn’t see Malik Taylor play one snap all half, but…

After that Winfree drop on the final drive before the half Rodgers was all over him. Next play, Malik is in for the hail mary. Hopefully that means he’s the next man up.

Right idea - wrong guy.  Winfree got the role I was looking for with Taylor.   Ah well it  happens.  

Edited October 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

More than fair rebuttal. Something will have to give tonight. 

Sound principle, but Kyler's decreased rushes won out tonight, tip my cap to your call.    One take-home lesson to reinforce on my part - how slow paced Matt Lafleur will be by default.   GB uses one of the slowest paces of play - but they're insanely efficient with their normal WR corps and O.    Tonight, without that same efficiency, they owned TOP, but translated to lower production across the board.    In matchups where GB has an OL edge, then need to factor that accordingly.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Assuming that Valdes-Scantling doesn't get activated, happy to take a stab above.  But for more stable player props, I've found 3 I'm willing to take, 1 for 2U:

Aaron Rodgers O10.5 rush yards - while A-Rod doesn't always rush a lot, when the team needs it, he's willing to scramble.  And given the WR corps is so depleted, I'd count on at least 3-4 rushes, so 11+ should be easily obtained.

Kyler Murray O27.5 rush yards - here, it's a reflection of the GB pass rush D - they are vulnerable to leaving big lanes, why Winston, Goff, Fields & Heinecke have all run for more than 30 yards.    

Randall Cobb O4.5 catches +135, 2U - it's the plus money that has me at 2U.   Cobb's clearly going to be the top WR, and he runs enough slot routes that he's not going to draw exclusive shadow attention.   I can't take the yardage prop at standard $ when I can get 5 catches at +135.  Sign. Me.  Up.

EDIT:   Zach Ertz O3.5 catches +110 - can't argue @SaveOurSonics rationale, and + money to boot.   

That's enough for TNF, don't see any great props for the other players, so leaving it there.  BOL!

So my 2 longshot TD props fizzled out (the payouts were insane, but this was the most likely outcome).   The one that hurt was Cobb - he was a decoy until the last minute of the 1H, and then boom, 2 2H TD catches - but falls short.    The QB props also fizzled - mainly because the idea that both teams would pass enough to create Cobb targets and QB run opps with pressure and open lanes didn't materialize, given how much GB's OL and run game controlled the TOP.

So the tally's ugly, but it happens.  All I can do is learn (and downgrade GB's ceiling for pass game and pace-related props).   I'm glad I wasn't on the over tonight - THAT would have been a brutal, brutal beat.

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 7 INCLUDING SNF:

ATS 21-13; 6-6 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +36.6U profit

Player props - 80-64, +23.9U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF at +money & J-Taylor on SNF for another 4U)

TD - 9-26, but playing all longshot TD props, with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis hitting Week 1, makes this +19.1U so far 

Net balance:  +79.6U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - 15.7U  Week 8 TNF - -6.4U)

[Broncofan]

On 10/28/2021 at 1:28 AM, Broncofan said:

While we wait for TNF news with GB WR's, a few plays for this weekend:
 

ATS/ML/RACE

WFT ML +150, RACE to 15/20/25 (+140/+220/+300) @ DEN - 4 reasons despite being at home in Denver.   First, Von Miller is day-to-day with an ankle injury, and frankly, while they say it's a minor ankle injury, it didn't look minor at all (immediately ruled out in-game).   Von's a freak, but can't believe even if he plays, he'll be close to 100 percent.   As we literally have no other pass rushers, and our ILB's / CB's are depleted beyond belief, huge problem.   Secondly, our OL has been problematic, and against WFT's DL, that's a huge problem.   Thirdly, our QB play is a mess, much worse than WFT's struggles with Heinecke.   Finally, our game prep and management are a mess.   Frankly, if this was a neutral field game, I think WFT should be -3 or more.   And if Von Miller doesn't play, that line is grossly overinflated.    Again, this isn't a lock that WFT wins - but the dog money makes the value so good.  

DET ML +160, RACE to 20/25/30 (+180 / +275 / +425) vs. PHI - a couple of important conditions - Hockenson & Swift & the D guys who've been hurt (S Harris, DE Trey Flowers & Charles Harris, DT Brockers & CB AJ Parker) all appear to be set to return.   Swift/Hockenson make the O hum, and that D is keeping them in games.    I'm so impressed with the coaching and how well prepared they are.   On the other hand, Philly is getting dominated at the LOS, and frankly, their coaching staff looks overmatched.  This is one of the best spots for DET to get their 1st win, and as a home dog, I'm all over the value here.   

SF -4 @ CHI (pending Trent Williams) - yes, I faded SF hard at home vs. IND last week.  Yes, it paid off.  So why am I backing them this week as road favorites?  3 reasons - first, no Mack and likely no Hicks makes the CHI D really vulnerable.   Secondly, once you allow SF to succeed with the run, their pass game opens up - IND's success after the 1st 2 drives in neutralizing Elijah Mitchell absolutely stifled the 49ers ability to operate.   Finally, the Bears are just lost O-scheme wise - Nagy has shown how bad of an O mind he is - zero imagination or adaptation to what Fields can do (while accentuating all the skills he's still trying to learn), and amplifying all the oL / read problems by having slowly-developing routes.   Just a disaster all around.    Without Mack/Hicks, and with Nagy, the Bears are truly a bottom-5 team this week, while the 49ers are flawed, they're not even in the same stratosphere.    I see a 7-10 pt win, so I'll take the chance against getting a back-door cover.

 

I'm also very tempted to take the JAX ML / RACE to 15/20/25 @ SEA, but one thing that's holding me back - Urban Meyer's total inability to game manage opportunities.    Still, I'll mull that one over - the value is so good on what I think should be a pick 'em match.

 

 

 

 

22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

No RACE because I respect the DAL D / pass rush and ability to control the clock with the run game on O and keep the game low scoring but will take the MIN ML +105 as Dak’s calf strain imo makes him 50/50 to play this week.  Obviously a risk but major value to bet now.   

 

My updated ATS/ML/RACE Week 8 card:
 

WFT +150, RACE to 15/20/25 (+140/+240/+350) - RACE odds improved, no penalty, so I took that.

DET ML +160, RACE to 20/25/30 (+180 / +275 / +425) vs. PHI - took earlier this week, nothing's changed

SF -4 @ CHI  - took earlier this week, nothing's changed

JAX +3.5 @ SEA - instead of the ML (which I'm really tempted on), took the points.   Carroll's tendency to keep it to a 1-score game, and the fact I think JAX is a very live dog, balanced vs. Urban Meyer's total lack of game management acumen.   So just take the points.   If I have a big Saturday win, maybe I'll dive into the ML/RACE, but for now, the smart play is the points.

NO +4.5 vs. TAM - with no Antonio Brown, and a hurting Gronk and secondary - this is basically a redux of last year, with the important exceptions of Jameis replacing Brees, and Vea disrupting the NO OL.    The thing is, Brees was the reason why NO lost to TAM in January.   Now, bad Jameis could replicate the same type of result for sure, and Vea being back is a massive difference maker.   And yes, no Michael Thomas.   But, Deonte Harris is likely back, and most importantly, Payton is far less likely to keep the leash on Jameis, when he knows he has to keep up with TB12.   Put it all together, and an upset W wouldn't surprise me.  But for now, I'll take the points.   

And for the record - I backed TAM to win the SB to start the playoffs, and took them every week ATS and on the ML (as dogs vs. NO & GB & KC).   So I don't say this lightly - NO is one of the worst matchups for TAM.   Their OL negates. the fantastic front 7 play of TAM, and that exposes their secondary's vulnerability to big plays.   Kamara's the shifty pass catching RB that gives TAM trouble.   And the NO D's ability to generate inside pressure, stuff the run, and Lattimore's ownership of Evans, well there's a reason why NO blew the doors off TAM midseason, and were 2-0 going into the playoffs, and had to go -4 in the TO game to lose to them.      With a healthy Gronk & AB (and year 2 with TB12 now commanding the O), I'd see how TB12 & co. could continue their 2021 roll and reverse their struggles vs. the Saints.   But the same reasons why NO was the hardest team for TB12 & co. to beat last year are still here this year.  This is very much an upset special as well, but given it's Jameis we're talking about, safer to take the points.

MIN ML +105 vs. DAL (SNF) - the ML has already moved to -145, and it's now MIN -2.5.   Glad I hopped on early and got this before the Dak-may-miss-game news cycle really took off.

 

Total stake - 9U (1U for each bet, and 0.5U for each race)

Player props next....

Edited October 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

My Sunday Player Props / Longshot TD props:

Player Props

Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD +110 - I know, I know, he whiffed hard on MNF.  But it's TAM pass funnel D, and unlike the SEA game, Payton has no choice but to air it out, and keep up with TB12.   So while it's not going to be a 4U play, I'm putting this on the ticket for sure.

Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD +180 - this is about the payout.   I know BB is great at taking out the best weapon - but in this case, LAC has 3-4 RZ weapons.   The other part is that while JC Jackson does a great job taking out his guy, the rest of the secondary & LB corps aren't nearly as successful.  We saw what DAL did, and LAC's OL and QB combo is just as lethal.   The way this loses is if NE can control so much TOP that it leaves no margin for error.  But if LAC scores 28+ (which I think is very possible), then 3 go by air.   It's not even close to a lock, but the payout is so good, I'll take a shot.

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD +120 - same idea, Sea's a bottom 10 pass D - and they're also a decent run D.    This also means one of my longshot TD props I've gone to before comes back again (see later down here lol).

Danny Jones O1.5 pass TD +130 - this is all about KC's pass D.   32nd pass D, if you're not going to take a plus money prop on 2TD's for a QB here, you're not doing it anywhere.  Now, Barkley, Golladay & Toney haven't practiced, so that means Shepard & Engram become more important (they returned).  It also means there's another prop worth taking, but I'll get to that later.

James Robinson catches (Pending) - unless it's a crazy number with no plus money, I'm all over this.  SEA has trouble defending the RB pass (well pretty much everywhere), and as of late their strategy is to concede the dump off.   That's all J-Rob territory.  I won't touch the rushing prop, because of Meyer's propensity to bring in Carlos Hyde, but I imagine we'll get O2.5 or O3.5 at plus money, I'll be over this.

I normally love Jonathan Taylor props, and this week is no exception - but for the injured ribs, which took him out of the game late vs. SF.    Very interested in his catch/rush yardage prop if he's OK.

Deebo Samuel O69.5 rec yards (no catch props out yet, will be interested) - the clear X receiver in their system, and against a depleted CHI D with no Mack / Hicks, and a secondary whose coverage depends on pressure, an easy call.  Will be interested in any O5.5 props at plus money, too.

AJ Brown O69.5 rec yards - the O5.5 is at even money, so this is a much easier prop to hit.  The YAC monster will easily hit this even with 5 catches.    Against IND's pass D, this is an auto-bet.

Michael Pittman O61.5 rec yards (also interested in catch props at plus money) - same deal as Samuel/AJ Brown.   Anything that's O4.5 at plus money, I'll be all over.

Pat Friermuth O2.5 catches +110 - with JuJu out, no problem in taking this prop.  The CLE D gives up 7+ targets a game, and he's now their other safety valve along with Diontae Johnson.   Easy call.

Jerry Jeudy O40.5 rec yards 4U - versus WFT and coming back after an extended absence I’m guessing it will be O4.5 / 60 yards.  I’ll take both and maybe even 2U each if it’s that low.   EDIT: Wow it’s 40.5 yards.  That’s a 4U play. 

Dan Arnold O3.5 rec +120 - the slow pace of the game has me worried but this is a plus TE matchup.  Love the +money I’ll go here. 

Jonathan Taylor O2.5 recs +120 - late addition but like the +money and usage as a way to get hiM in space and get away from Jeffrey Simmons

 

Stake - 14U  

 

Longshot TD props (0.8U / 0.4U unless otherwise specified)

Denzel Mims +1800 / +125000 2+ (0.4U / 0.2U) - unlike my TNF guess on Malik  Taylor this is known - Mims is taking Corey Davis’ spot (likely out with new hip flexor injury in practice).   While the odds are long with  Mike White and the Cin pass D, it’s 18-1 and 125-1 for arguably their best RZ WR (should have been starting over Keenan Cole anyways but that’s on the coaches - OC Mike Lafleur looks lost in year 1).   Smaller stab but at those odds gotta take a shot. 

 

Dan Arnold +450 / +5000 2+ - another plus matchup, and he keeps getting RZ targets.   As long as the payouts are this good, I'll keep taking stabs.   

Juwan Johnson +450 / +5000 2+ - if it's a Jameis air show week, until Michael Thomas is back - always worth a look at those odds. 

Danny Jones +500 / +5000 2+ - important dislcaimer, I will only take this if Saquon Barkley is still out.  In that case, the RPO where he keeps becomes very much an option.

Stake - 4.2U

I also put a 0.5U parley on my ATS / ML picks (WFT +160, DET +160, JAX +3.5, NO +4.5 & MIN ML for a nice 60-1 play when MIN was +105.   

 

 

TOTAL STAKE WEEK 9 SUN - 27.2U 

 

BOL!

Edited October 31, 2021 by Broncofan
Late Jeudy 4U and Arnold & J-Taylor additions.

[Broncofan]

On 10/26/2021 at 4:51 AM, NYRaider said:

The only underdogs I feel comfortable betting on this week ML are the Patriots and Steelers. 

Not sure I’m that comfortable with Steelers if Conklin, Chubb and Baker are back (not a huge Baker guy but he’s still far better than Case Keenum).  
 

 

[Shanedorf]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

My updated ATS/ML/RACE Week 8 card:

10,000 thanks for taking all of us on a full NFL gambling tour in this thread, we truly appreciate all the effort you put into it. Quite illuminating. Good Luck !

[NYRaider]

21 hours ago, N4L said:

Kyler has been running... just not running forward. He has been scrambling around A LOT. So its not as if he is hurt or something and that is the reason he isnt getting many rushing yards, he has the ability to rush but just isnt doing it

With how effective Edmonds/Conner have been on the ground I think the Cardinals have purposely been limiting Kyler's rushing attempts to try and protect his health. Two weeks in a row he has taken a hit and had an injury scare.