Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Receiving or rushing?

O19.5 receiving, TD can be any kind.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Broncos 1h ML for me 

[UncleAdamz]

btw right now the Panthers are favored over the Cardinals, which seems odd even considering the track record of the Panthers dominating this matchup.

[Broncofan]

For MNF, I have 4 plays in mind:

Giants ML / -1 - As great of a story as DAL & Cooper Rush were, there's a simple element - the CIN OL was dreadful, and couldn't protect Joe Burrow or let the run game get untracked.   And the pass D was vulnerable enough.   Great W for DAL, but IMO this is an overcorrection.   A DAL team without a true QB is not going to win games against competent teams.  And while Danny Jones could very well pull a vintage Danny Jones, he's been safe enough, and reliant on Saquon Barkley and a MUCH improved OL to keep the G-men playing well.   This is far from a lock, but I have the Giants winning this 6/10x, so that's value at -150 instead of the pick 'em odds we're getting.   

Sterling Shepard O44.5 rec yds - now, to be clear, the very real risk is that Shepard pulls something (ribs, calf, hammy, hurt feelings) - and doesn't get there.  But he's back to being the top WR with Toney doubtful (who's in Daboll's doghouse apparently anyways).    Trevon Diggs is not a CB to be feared production-wise; he jumps routes for TO's, but when he doesn't, he can be beat.  

Saquon Barkley 100+ rush yards +240 - this is a pure thought experiment, following up on the success with Pitts 75+ yards and Dortch 50+ yards.    The OU is set at 77.5 yards which I think has value - but I think the chances Barkley smashes 100+ is almost the same as getting in the 80's - when he whiffs, he whiffs hard, but when he crushes 80+, likely 100 happens.   For the odds boost, it seems like this type of +200 value (Pitts was insane at +290/+300) is something that's too good to pass up.    It's a new wrinkle I'm adding, so don't get too excited on tailing, and if you like the safety of O77.5 more, I don't blame you.

Jake Ferguson +800 TD / +9500 2+ (FANDUEL - 0.8U/0.2U) - this TD prop is an absolute take-now if you're interested.   The more news that Dalton Schultz may not play, the more this line drops.    And to be clear, I think it's 70-30 he won't play - because he didn't practice all week, and he was listed as a limited participant only as an estimation, because the last practice was a walkthrough.   That's very different probability-wise that he's missing time.   PCL injuries can definitely get worse (and the dreaded ACL is a risk), so the Boys would be nuts to play him.   So in steps Ferguson in that scenario - so if you think the reasoning is sound, the time to take the prop is now.  If you wait until the news is out, his line will drop to +300 or less (Schultz is +225 right now, in the unlikely event he plays), and then it aligns with his TD likelihood, which not when you bet the play.

BOL!

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[bigbadbuff]

Tony Pollard over 18.5 receiving yards is my top play 

Edited September 26, 2022 by bigbadbuff

[bucksavage1]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:36 PM, bucksavage1 said:

 I like the Falcons/Texans in a 6 point teaser. Take ‘em both to +8/+8.5. I’ll take my chances on them not losing to Seattle and Chicago by more than a TD.

Both teams should some fight

Hope this made people some money.

I went 7-3 overall

 

 

[bigbadbuff]

3 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

Tony Pollard over 18.5 receiving yards is my top play 

This jumped to 23.5 

 

wow

[champ11]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For MNF, I have 4 plays in mind:

Giants ML / -1 - As great of a story as DAL & Cooper Rush were, there's a simple element - the CIN OL was dreadful, and couldn't protect Joe Burrow or let the run game get untracked.   And the pass D was vulnerable enough.   Great W for DAL, but IMO this is an overcorrection.   A DAL team without a true QB is not going to win games against competent teams.  And while Danny Jones could very well pull a vintage Danny Jones, he's been safe enough, and reliant on Saquon Barkley and a MUCH improved OL to keep the G-men playing well.   This is far from a lock, but I have the Giants winning this 6/10x, so that's value at -150 instead of the pick 'em odds we're getting.   

Sterling Shepard O44.5 rec yds - now, to be clear, the very real risk is that Shepard pulls something (ribs, calf, hammy, hurt feelings) - and doesn't get there.  But he's back to being the top WR with Toney doubtful (who's in Daboll's doghouse apparently anyways).    Trevon Diggs is not a CB to be feared production-wise; he jumps routes for TO's, but when he doesn't, he can be beat.  

Saquon Barkley 100+ rush yards +240 - this is a pure thought experiment, following up on the success with Pitts 75+ yards and Dortch 50+ yards.    The OU is set at 77.5 yards which I think has value - but I think the chances Barkley smashes 100+ is almost the same as getting in the 80's - when he whiffs, he whiffs hard, but when he crushes 80+, likely 100 happens.   For the odds boost, it seems like this type of +200 value (Pitts was insane at +290/+300) is something that's too good to pass up.    It's a new wrinkle I'm adding, so don't get too excited on tailing, and if you like the safety of O77.5 more, I don't blame you.

Jake Ferguson +800 TD / +9500 2+ (FANDUEL - 0.8U/0.2U) - this TD prop is an absolute take-now if you're interested.   The more news that Dalton Schultz may not play, the more this line drops.    And to be clear, I think it's 70-30 he won't play - because he didn't practice all week, and he was listed as a limited participant only as an estimation, because the last practice was a walkthrough.   That's very different probability-wise that he's missing time.   PCL injuries can definitely get worse (and the dreaded ACL is a risk), so the Boys would be nuts to play him.   So in steps Ferguson in that scenario - so if you think the reasoning is sound, the time to take the prop is now.  If you wait until the news is out, his line will drop to +300 or less (Schultz is +225 right now, in the unlikely event he plays), and then it aligns with his TD likelihood, which not when you bet the play.

BOL!

 

Bro, I need to get this pick right tonight to win my first weekly pickem in like 2 years lol.

The line for the pick is Giants -2.5. I have the Giants right now but am very torn. Feels like a tossup game so I am tempted to take the points and the Cowboys .... help me people 

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Bro, I need to get this pick right tonight to win my first weekly pickem in like 2 years lol.

The line for the pick is Giants -2.5. I have the Giants right now but am very torn. Feels like a tossup game so I am tempted to take the points and the Cowboys .... help me people 

Ugh.  I hate betting with line movement because it’s been shown to be a 50-50 prop (but if you bet before the line moves 3 pts the odds you win go to near-70 percent).    
 

I just can’t back the Boys.  Unless they win the TO matchup the Gmen have more paths to victory.    Losing Schultz really makes the pass game even easier to defend.   
 

I had NYG as a -150 fave.  That’s exactly In line with 3 pt edge.  I just think I can sleep easier knowing I backed Daboll & Barkley & co. over McCarthy / Cooper Rush.  

[champ11]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Ugh.  I hate betting with line movement because it’s been shown to be a 50-50 prop (but if you bet before the line moves 3 pts the odds you win go to near-70 percent).    
 

I just can’t back the Boys.  Unless they win the TO matchup the Gmen have more paths to victory.    Losing Schultz really makes the pass game even easier to defend.   
 

I had NYG as a -150 fave.  That’s exactly In line with 3 pt edge.  I just think I can sleep easier knowing I backed Daboll & Barkley & co. over McCarthy / Cooper Rush.  

Yep I feel that. Going Giants knowing it could go either way 

[bigbadbuff]

All Pollard on the ground first half. Hideous game. Not looking good for the 18.5 or the over 2.5 catches.

 

Stay tuned.

[SmittyBacall]

Sterling Sherperd sucks.

[adamq]

38 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Every receiver on the Giants sucks.

FIFY.. I count Toney because he will never be healthy 

Edited September 27, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Sterling Sherperd sucks.

He honestly does; his 2 drops absolutely killed the G-men's chances to win.   Not the only issue (the pass pro is awful, in particular the TE/RB missed so many assignments and compounded the problems, and the G-men run D without Leonard Williams got abused).   Full credit to the 'Boys.

But he did salvage the night with that last drive catch - O44.5 hits.    Sadly for him, he looks like he had a career-ending non-contact injury.   Sucks for him - fortunate timing for the o44.5 guys it happened late.

Barkley hits the O77.5 prop, but misses the 100+ +240 alt prop.  NYG -1 goes down in flames after a promising 13-6 3Q lead.    Longshot TD prop whiffs, although Ferguson made it out on the field and was out there for 3 EZ pass plays (no targets though). 2-3. 

SNF was a DEN ML win (whew), while no TD and no Javonte pass yd prop, so 1-2. 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 3 SNF:
 

ATS/ML&RACE

11-10ATS, 4-5 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 vs. LAC, and now DET game management vs. MIN could be amazing instead of OK)

-0.1U

 

PLAYER PROPS

24-24

+1.8U (6-6 in 2U plays - thank you week 3 where a 5-9 week gets profit thanks to all the big payout except Goff plays hitting)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

4-16 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 4 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop with starter status in doubt).

+4.6U

 

TOTAL:   +6.3U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 TNF & SNF TD cashouts - +8.9U  )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, with the lines out again, there are 5 plays I'd like to settle in now, to get ahead of any line movement I think is going my direction:

TNF

MIA ML +170, RACE to 20/25/30 (+220/+390/+580) - alternatively, go with the +4.   I know the narrative is that it's a short week, and the Bengals are at home (in really dope alt uni & helmet, BTW), but the CIN OL is still a mess, and that plays right into MIA's pass rush.   It doesn't help that they lost their best run anchor in DJ Reader, and  now Joe Mixon is hurting.   Tee Higgins I thought was in protocol again, but he's OK, which helps.    The MIA pass rush and coverage though are top units...and that's a big problem for CIN's O as we've seen.   There's always the chance of a MIA letdown game, but the talent gap here is really wide in the MIA D / CIN OL side, and then the MIA O / CIN secondary side.  The RACE lines are so juicy, I'll take a 0.5U on each. 

EARLY

BUF-BAL O51.5 - Unders are still king.  But keep in mind that BAL is still missing 2 of their top 3 CB's, and their pass rush isn't elite anymore.   On the flip side, BUF's secondary is nowhere near as effective, and BAL's O presents a problem regardless in its uniqueness.   I also know the public likely is thinking the same, so this is one where the line could go up to 53-54+, and I'm much more comfortable with 52 as my target.  

DET -4.5 vs. SEA - SEA & ATL had a close game, and DET lost a heartbreaker in MIN where they were up 24-14, and then Dan Campbell let off the gas, and made some really awful game management choices (going for it on 4th and 2 from 29, and then kicking the 55+ yard FG on 4th and 4 from the 38 instead of trying to win the game.  If you go for it at the 29, you're going for it on the 38...or vice-versa, you kick the FG at the 29).  Campbell admitted he blew the game management, which was nice to see.   This is a case where the DET OL and pass game just can overwhelm the SEA D, and while I expect some SEA O success, the Lions' D is still a big step up from the ATL D, and we see more of a 31-17 type game.  Plus we get the WC travelling for an early game, too.  I want nothing to do with the line if it gets any higher, though, so going to get the line now.

JAX +7 @ PHI - no way I'm going to fade Philly SU (straight up) - but the matchup is a lot closer than it looks.   DET's OL and run game, along with pass weapons, allowed them to keep up with Hurts & co., and backdoor a cover.   I see something very similar here, where the JAX run game can keep the PHI pass rush honest, and Kirk & Zay Jones can thrive enough to be productive.   I don't want the line to drop below 7, though - so I'm grabbing this now. 

EDIT:  ADDED TUES AM - CLE -120 ML @ ATL - without Myles Garrett & Ja'daveon Clowney, this becomes riskier - but this is also reflected in the line.    With news that Garrett escaped any broken bones, and released from hospital, I'd prefer to get ahead of the line movement that happens if he's announced as OK to return to practice.  Clowney's also noted to have a LAS and not the high-ankle variety, so I'm confident enough to bet CLE now and leverage the injury concern that's likely factored in (QB's are worth 2-3 pts, depending on how good they are, but elite DPOY types move the line about 1-2 pts, I'd guess CLE would be -3.5 to 4 instead of the -1.5 they're at now; it makes the ML at -120 very attractive, simpler).  I'm totally OK with the ML without those 2, with either added (or both) then we're getting major value ahead of the news, and the odds won't likely be any better to CLE given they're being treated as missing the game in the current odds.

 

LATE

KC -2.0 @ TAM - I know, I know, TB12 doesn't lose games back to back that often.   But the problems with their OL and WR corps aren't going away.   And while KC lost @ IND last week, gotta understand the context - they muffed a punt, let another punt drop at the 15 and it ended up at the 1 (which killed the O drive next time), and went for a fake FG (that failed), along with terrible penalties that extended drives that were stopped, and led to at points.   Those rare events led to a 10-13 point swing.    Given that, if you give me Mahomes and he only has to cover by a FG, I'll take that.   This feels a lot like TB12's last year with NE, FWIW - OL is getting him killed, him trying to carry the team (with a stellar D) - but falling short a lot more often than not.

 

I'm also eyeing DEN +2 (but I think the line's going to move towards LV as more post-Hackett fallout continues to circulate in the news cycle), and I'm really tempted with TEN +3 and CLE -1.5 (but really need to know what's happening with Myles Garrett car accident and Ja'daveon Clowney's ankle).   Fo now those 5 bets are locked in, as I think the line will only go in my direction, so getting the extra value now.

EDIT:  Got enough news on Garrett & Clowney that IMO I can just take the shot now.  Odds won't likely improve for CLE, but can only get further away if Clowney returns, or Garrett returns to practice this week.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Broncofan