Weekly Bets Thread

[Ray Reed]

I like the over on OBJ TDs this year - line is +100 for over 4.5 right now on barstool. I think he scores 6-7 this year, he will be a go-to guy for Lamar in the redzone 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Ray Reed

[Broncofan]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:46 AM, Broncofan said:

For the posters who weren't around, a few comments before the NFL season starts:

1.  ATS/ML plays - if you are only taking favorites, you're giving Vegas a massive edge.   Dogs are close to 60 percent winners ATS the last 2 years.   The other interesting part - when the spread is 6 pts or less, the team that covers wins about 89 percent of the time - obviously, that means that the favorite wins when they cover as well - but it also means that dogs often win outright, instead of just covering.    I get that ppl sometimes feel safer with the dog spread, and there will be times that they cover but still lose - but overall, committing to more ML plays in sub-6 pt dogs has proven to be profitable.

2.  Player props - the under is a leverage spot for Vegas - because casuals and non-casuals still prefer to bet the over.   It's human nature - you are never truly out of it, and you can also win early.   Having said that, I still bet overs 95+ percent of the time - but as those who know me well, know that I look for leverage spots where big +money alt lines (offered on B365, DK & FD) are available - so if I hit even the 1st alt line, I don't just double my winnings there, but often go 3-4x, and if the 2nd alt line hits, it's a 6x+ type result.   That also allows me to be profitable the last 3+ years even if I'm "only" at 50 percent for my player props.

3. TD props - I look for leverage spots, where I think the payout is out of line with the probability.  That means I'm usually looking for +400 plays.  That also means in a good year, I'm hitting 20-25 percent of my plays - but at +400 or more, I'm generating profit.  That requires both discipline and patience, because it also means more plays miss than hit.   

4.  General principles - I'm looking for areas where there's value relative to the probability / risk.   But, I'm picking my spots - because unlike the casual public assumptions that Vegas gets lines wrong all the time - for football, I don't think that's the case.   I look for edges on the margins - which is why player props and longshot TD's are a favorite area, because that's where less scrutiny is often applied.    But we're also talking on a Sunday with 12+ games, 24 teams with 6+ skill players, who have yardage & TD props, so we're talking 300+ possible props.   And I'm talking 10-15 of them (6-8 player yardage props, TD props for the rest)....so you get the idea it's really skimming the tip of the iceberg (hopefully).   It also highlights a principle I'll focus on more on single-games - don't go crazy with 5-6 player props in 1 game, unless there's a clear edge you can see (NYG-MIN WC game a great example).   If you're doing 5-6 player props and 3-4 TD props each prime-time game - you're likely overestimating your analytics edge.    For a full card, diff story, as there are 12 games to pick from.    Let's see how it goes...

 

5.  MOST IMPORTANTLY - Bankroll management & personal responsibility - I can't stress this enough, I'll post my plays, but please bet responsibly.    No matter who you follow - it’s your money, so manage it so you can live with the results either way.  When I say 1U, I mean 1/100 of my bankroll.   And to be transparent, betting 20U in 1 day isn't great - if you only have a 100U bankroll.   I've been lucky enough to accumulate 3 years of profit my actual bankroll is now much larger, for those with a 100U bankroll, I'd actually recommend half-size of my bets.   Still, because I've been doing it for 3+ years now, I'd rather stick to the same formula, so ppl get used to the confidence / risk I'm attributing from prior years.  

 

OK, that's all - let's get this going for 2023!  Glad we're back!

So - one other big take message from above - if you don't have books with alt lines, or get the same kind of value on TD odds (DK, FD, B365)....I would drop the stakes a LOT more.   Again, my player props go just over 50 percent with 1 alt line hitting - that's where my profit generates there.   And for TD's, I'm "only" hitting 20-25 percent of time, but I'm getting +400 or better in almost all, that's where my profit generates.   Get a lot worse odds....the value isn't there. 
 

I’ve been fortunate enough to have 15-20% ROI the last 3 years  - but it’s all about finding spots with value.  If you don’t have the same value in the odds - be really careful.   BOL! 

[Rainmaker90]

 

[SmittyBacall]

I don’t have the patience for -110 futures. Though I do have a few juicier ones on the go…

I’m on Arizona Cardinals to pick first in 2024 (+250).

Will Anderson DROY (+350).

And exact order of AFCN:
CIN->BAL->PIT->CLE (+950).

 

[SmittyBacall]

24 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I don’t have the patience for -110 futures. Though I do have a few juicier ones on the go…

I’m on Arizona Cardinals to pick first in 2024 (+250).

Will Anderson DROY (+350).

And exact order of AFCN:
CIN->BAL->PIT->CLE (+950).

 

 

[Rainmaker90]

40 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I don’t have the patience for -110 futures. Though I do have a few juicier ones on the go…

I’m on Arizona Cardinals to pick first in 2024 (+250).

Will Anderson DROY (+350).

And exact order of AFCN:
CIN->BAL->PIT->CLE (+950).

 

The order of the AFC N has me intrigued 

[Broncofan]

More SUN games have TD props out so 3 more plays I’m taking (adding in my SUN plays so it’s 1 spot):: 

SUN ATS/ML 

1.  PIT ML +120 (+2) vs. SF - no Bosa, OL having issues, Kittle iffy and Purdy slow ramp up.   Add in travel east and PIT WR being able to exploit the SF secondary (and Pickett isn’t ascendant but he’s not going to be Trubisky level bad - which is all they need this week).   I think SF is fine for the season but this is an ideal dog play. 

2.  GB ML +100 (+1.5) @ CHI - I really like where CHI is headed - but GB still has a great OL, 2-headed run game and D that gives bad OL / non-elite QB O fits.   Jordan Love doesn’t have to be great to win this game   

MNF

3.  NYJ ML +120 vs. BUF - this isn’t about A-Rod, it’s about the Jets being a matchup problem for BUF.    The OL issues they’ve had and Josh Allen are the only reasons I pause but that D is legit.   Add in no Von Miller and now Micah Hyde hurting I’ll trust my gut here.  I’ll still have BUF winning the division but I’m giving the Jets their home win in a split series for 2023.   

3U for ATS/ML so far….

 

SUN PLAYER PROPS 

EARLY

1.  JK Dobbins o55.5U rush yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ rush yds +210, 100+ rush yds +650 0.5U - HOU  run D still their weakness and Dobbins the clear lead.   I have 70-75 yds projected so clear alt line play.  

2.  Calvin Ridley o57.5 Rec yds (already up to 60.5) 2.2U to win 2U - sadly alt lines weren’t out when main line came out - and now alt lines on DK of 75/100 aren’t as juicy (+140 & +360).  Will look to see if FD better when they release alt lines.   #4 confidence play 

3. Juwan Johnson o26.5 Rec yds  2.2U to win 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +280 1U FD, 70+ rec yds 0.5U FD - Carr loves the TE he’s the top guy.   Carr also told his brother to draft him in fantasy lol.   More importantly TEN has a top 3 run D but leaky secondary - bottom 5 vs. TE's last year in yardage allowed.   With Kamara suspended I also think they use the TE more - I have him at 4-45 as my projection, so have to take the alt lines

4.  Jahan Dotson o43.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ +340 1U & 100+ +950 0.5U DK - even with Terry Mclaurin likely playing I think this is a smash spot with Ari pass D and Sam Howell’s connection with him, plus Mclaurin battling turf toe.   I have him at 5/65+ as the projection, so alt line play.   #2 confidence play.

5.  Sam Howell O20.5 rush yds 2.2U to win 2U - Howell is a very mobile QB, while the WAS OL is improved, it’s still a work in progress - when you combine those 2, that’s a recipe for rush yds.   Projecting 4-5 runs for 30+ yds.  

LATE 

6.  Tyler Higbee o41.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U and 75+ +340 1U - no Kupp and SEA TE pass funnel D.    I have 5-65 as the projection so have to take an alt line shot too. #1 confidence play.     

7.  Rhamondre Stephenson o18.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 50+ +550 1U - phi pass D and pass rush again funnels RB work.  Rhamondre not only gets 5+ targets a game his usage may be higher with WR’s hurt.    I have 5/35 projected so I have to take 50+ at +550.  #3 confidence play

That's 20.5U in 7 plays, probably 1-2 more than I had planned, but Howell & Dobbins' numbers were way too low to pass up on.

 

SUN LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY

1 & 2.  Cole Turner +1600 / +25000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U & John Bates +900 / +10000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK -  Logan Thomas is back, but likely to split time.    Howell has mega connection with Turner in preseason.  If Turner is inactive then the bet voids.  I’ll put more on Turner as he’s the move TE if Thomas sits.  

3.  Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +7000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U FD - if he wasn’t coming back from injury (returned from practice Fri) I’d call this my best value play.   He’s still playable here on DK it’s +370.   

4.  Juwan Johnson +320 / +3000 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - I may regret taking it now instead of noon tomorrow, when there may be a last-minute rate increase.   But I have to take the guy that has such a crazy mismatch and known top 2 target in the RZ.

 

LATE

5.   Donald Parham +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - still the RZ guy they bring in for 1-2 EZ targets a game.  

6.  RB Chris Brooks +1500 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - This play may be inactive but if he’s active could be the GL hammer with MIA, as Mostert never takes this role and Achane / Ahmed are both returning from injury & Achane is a scat back.   If he’s inactive it voids.

7.  Brandon Johnson +750 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - Johnson stands out given Jeudy likely out.  And even if Jeudy plays Johnson is part of their RZ package.

8.  Roschon Johnson +900 FD (now +800), +7500 DK 0.4U / 0.1U - FD doesn’t do 2-TD plays once you get super LONGSHOT territory so I’m splitting this.  He’s the pass receiving back and could be in the 2-minute drill.   Because Fields could easily vulture a TD (and it’s a rookie debut - see Gibbs) it’s only a 0.5U play.

SNF

9.   Lawrence Cager +2500 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - this is likely a void if Darren Waller plays.   But if Waller is inactive, this is just too much value.   Daniel Bellinger is the backup TE, but Cager is the Parham-type receiving option.  It's NOT playable even at +800 or +1000, but at +2500 it’s worth a 0.5U play.    

 

Since I’m restricted at B365 - always check there too for better odds.   That’s  3U for ML plays, 20.5U on 7 player props & 8 TD props for 7.5U for Sunday, although I think good chance 2 TD plays will void (Brooks & Cager).     At 31U its definitely time to stop.  BOL!

Edited September 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

The Nick Bosa situation has really messed with my favorite bet. Thought it had a good chance to get to 4 or at least stay at +3.5. Now at +2.5 I’m off the Steelers. 
 

 

[Dash]

Maybe take a look at some Higbee props with kupp maybe missing the game. Think Seattle was bad against TEs last year and maybe again. 

[Broncofan]

DK has a happy hour promo in Canada - Patrick Mahomes 275+ pass yds +100 instead of -200 (50 percent boost).  It’s a 1U max bet but it’s a no brainer if you have it.  Barring injury it’s free.  
 

@N4L @Dash @NYRaider @BobbyPhil1781@agarcia34 @SmittyBacall @Rainmaker90 @JaguarCrazy2832 @thebestever6@Ray Reed @adamq@4thandInches@BStanRamFan

Edited September 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DK has a happy hour promo in Canada - Patrick Mahomes 275+ pass yds +100 instead of -200 (50 percent boost).  It’s a 1U max bet but it’s a no brainer if you have it.  Barring injury it’s free.  
 

@N4L @Dash @NYRaider @BobbyPhil1781@agarcia34 @SmittyBacall @Rainmaker90 @JaguarCrazy2832 @thebestever6@Ray Reed @adamq@4thandInches@BStanRamFan

So DK hates me and has limited boosts to $5-$10 now smh

I was killing em with pitching props 

[Rainmaker90]

31 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DK has a happy hour promo in Canada - Patrick Mahomes 275+ pass yds +100 instead of -200 (50 percent boost).  It’s a 1U max bet but it’s a no brainer if you have it.  Barring injury it’s free.  
 

@N4L @Dash @NYRaider @BobbyPhil1781@agarcia34 @SmittyBacall @Rainmaker90 @JaguarCrazy2832 @thebestever6@Ray Reed @adamq@4thandInches@BStanRamFan

Good lookin out! 

[BobbyPhil1781]

53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DK has a happy hour promo in Canada - Patrick Mahomes 275+ pass yds +100 instead of -200 (50 percent boost).  It’s a 1U max bet but it’s a no brainer if you have it.  Barring injury it’s free.  
 

@N4L @Dash @NYRaider @BobbyPhil1781@agarcia34 @SmittyBacall @Rainmaker90 @JaguarCrazy2832 @thebestever6@Ray Reed @adamq@4thandInches@BStanRamFan

Appreciate the heads up. I need to sign up for DK to use their free bet promo they have going on now. Will do that this week

[stl4life07]

26 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

So DK hates me and has limited boosts to $5-$10 now smh

I was killing em with pitching props 

Yeah DK is something else. They limited me after I won like three boost of the max $25 in a short span. As long as I was losing they had no issue but the second I started winning they quickly limited me to $10 max. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

12 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah DK is something else. They limited me after I won like three boost of the max $25 in a short span. As long as I was losing they had no issue but the second I started winning they quickly limited me to $10 max. 

Yea at least FD is consistent