Week 17 GDT: Packers @ Detroit Lions

[coachbuns]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Call me Captain Downer if you want, but that's 13th, 33rd and 12th in the league in those categories respectively.

They're cool even numbers and all that, but they're not particularly impressive accomplishments on a volume perspective.

More like Debbie Downer ---  Point being,  1000 yard rusher, 1000 yard receiver, 4000 yard passer ... nice numbers for guys on 1 team.   

[Mr Bad Example]

On 12/24/2019 at 7:02 PM, coachbuns said:

He and Florio are both twits who never touched a football in their life. If both are anti Packer as normal ... feeling good about the Packers!!

I have touched a football, and GB's pythagorean win total is 9-6, which is what the team feels like to me. They already got crushed by SF and I think NO is a better team as well, but if GB gets home field, I've seen plenty of teams good and bad walk out into cold weather and just quit, so one never knows. 

As far as LaFleur, I can't quite figure out if he's a good coach getting a team to outperform its talent level, or just has a lucky horseshoe up his butt. 

[Mr Bad Example]

On 12/27/2019 at 4:37 PM, Mazrimiv said:

Fun Fact: Crosby missed more kicks last season in DET (4 FG, 1 XP) than in the 26 games since (3 FG, 1XP)

I did love how the reactionaries were out with "CUT CROSBY!" after that game. I thought it sucked in the moment, but the guy's been a rock for about a decade. You just sweep that under the rug of "worst day ever" and move on for a kicker of his track record and ability. 

[Gopackgonerd]

4 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

I did love how the reactionaries were out with "CUT CROSBY!" after that game. I thought it sucked in the moment, but the guy's been a rock for about a decade. You just sweep that under the rug of "worst day ever" and move on for a kicker of his track record and ability. 

To be fair everytime someone has a bad game Packers fans want them cut and or fired

[Mr Bad Example]

1 minute ago, Gopackgonerd said:

To be fair everytime someone has a bad game Packers fans want them cut and or fired

Sometimes they don't even need a bad game. My dumb uncle was talking after last season about "we need to get rid of that whole damn offensive line!" and while I didn't have the info at my fingertips, I was sitting there thinking "aren't they ranked 2nd in pass blocking and Bakhtiari is an All-Pro?" (yes, I was correct on those). 

Edited December 29, 2019 by Mr Bad Example

[coachbuns]

55 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

I have touched a football, and GB's pythagorean win total is 9-6, which is what the team feels like to me. They already got crushed by SF and I think NO is a better team as well, but if GB gets home field, I've seen plenty of teams good and bad walk out into cold weather and just quit, so one never knows. 

As far as LaFleur, I can't quite figure out if he's a good coach getting a team to outperform its talent level, or just has a lucky horseshoe up his butt. 

Doesn't matter to me if he's coaching the team well or they are lucky ... probably both.  Pythagorean win total .. seriously?    Does touching the football start the pytha thing?  What the hell is it?    Whatever ... the record shows 12-3 going on 13-3 and that's all that matters.  Things even out a little bit more when any warm weather/dome team comes into GB in January.    It's been a heck of a ride so hang on and strap yourself in

[Spartacus]

26 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Doesn't matter to me if he's coaching the team well or they are lucky ... probably both.  Pythagorean win total .. seriously?    Does touching the football start the pytha thing?  What the hell is it?    Whatever ... the record shows 12-3 going on 13-3 and that's all that matters.  Things even out a little bit more when any warm weather/dome team comes into GB in January.    It's been a heck of a ride so hang on and strap yourself in

Although I get your general sentiment. Pythagorean wins have been a predictor of both playoff and future success. That being said the sample size in football I dont believe to be ideal to really pay too much attention to it.

[Mazrimiv]

Do I think this team is great?  Not really.  On the bright side, I think this team should go at least as far in the playoffs as that SB favorite 2011 GB team. In truth, after watching the MIN game I have no idea what to expect from this team in the playoffs.

[coachbuns]

9 hours ago, Spartacus said:

Although I get your general sentiment. Pythagorean wins have been a predictor of both playoff and future success. That being said the sample size in football I dont believe to be ideal to really pay too much attention to it.

I get it that the Pythagorean predictor has been used to try and figure out how a team may do.  Everybody wants to get an edge of what or what not may help the team's success or lack of it.   Stats this, stats that .. it's fun to try and figure it all out no doubt.  That being said, weather (if outside game), injuries, bad breaks in a game,  a ref's bad call, etc are just as or more important.   Regardless, there's always something for somebody to check out no doubt.    

[coachbuns]

2 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Do I think this team is great?  Not really.  On the bright side, I think this team should go at least as far in the playoffs as that SB favorite 2011 GB team. In truth, after watching the MIN game I have no idea what to expect from this team in the playoffs.

Nobody thought that of our last super bowl team either.  Have the faith ... it's been a good ride regardless.  

[Mr Bad Example]

10 hours ago, coachbuns said:

Doesn't matter to me if he's coaching the team well or they are lucky ... probably both.  Pythagorean win total .. seriously?    Does touching the football start the pytha thing?  What the hell is it?    Whatever ... the record shows 12-3 going on 13-3 and that's all that matters.  Things even out a little bit more when any warm weather/dome team comes into GB in January.    It's been a heck of a ride so hang on and strap yourself in

As Spartacus said, Pythagorean win total is usually a better indicator of a team's quality than their actual w/l record. For instance, it indicates that GB is a worse team than SF (11-4), worse than Min (10-5), about as good as NO (9.5-5.5), and better than Sea and Phi (both in the 8-7 range). 

It's a tool of measurement, based on the season long results. For any given game, it doesn't necessarily mean anything - it indicates what the outcome SHOULD be but injuries and luck certainly have a large amount of say in that as well. FWIW the PWT of the 2010 team was 12-4, indicating they underplayed their talent (or had bad luck - 4-6 in 1 score games is OK, but add 1 win there because teams tend to be about .500 in those games and they're suddenly a lot closer). 

[Golfman]

39 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Do I think this team is great?  Not really.  On the bright side, I think this team should go at least as far in the playoffs as that SB favorite 2011 GB team. In truth, after watching the MIN game I have no idea what to expect from this team in the playoffs.

It's safe to say, if we get the defense that showed up last Monday night, we've got a chance. That defense will keep us in the game against anybody! 

[incognito_man]

51 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

As Spartacus said, Pythagorean win total is usually a better indicator of a team's quality than their actual w/l record. For instance, it indicates that GB is a worse team than SF (11-4), worse than Min (10-5), about as good as NO (9.5-5.5), and better than Sea and Phi (both in the 8-7 range). 

It's a tool of measurement, based on the season long results. For any given game, it doesn't necessarily mean anything - it indicates what the outcome SHOULD be but injuries and luck certainly have a large amount of say in that as well. FWIW the PWT of the 2010 team was 12-4, indicating they underplayed their talent (or had bad luck - 4-6 in 1 score games is OK, but add 1 win there because teams tend to be about .500 in those games and they're suddenly a lot closer). 

It's also pretty limited and doesn't account for quality of opponent or game situations.

I prefer to look at DVOA, which seems about right for my eye test as well. GB has played like a tier 2 team overall this year, but has the horses to get hot at the right time and win it all.

[squire12]

21 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's also pretty limited and doesn't account for quality of opponent or game situations.

I prefer to look at DVOA, which seems about right for my eye test as well. GB has played like a tier 2 team overall this year, but has the horses to get hot at the right time and win it all.

How many and which teams are in tier 1, 2 and 3?

BAL,  KC, SF,  NO tier 1

NE,  GB,  sea, BUF tier 2

Min, Hou   tier 3

Ten, pit phi, DAL tier 4

Playoff contention teams.  BUF and sea could very easily be dropped to tier 3.

 

[Spartacus]

28 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's also pretty limited and doesn't account for quality of opponent or game situations.

I prefer to look at DVOA, which seems about right for my eye test as well. GB has played like a tier 2 team overall this year, but has the horses to get hot at the right time and win it all.

And that's why I love the nfl playoffs. We dont need to beat the 49ers 4 out of 7 times. We only need to beat them once..... assuming we even get that far.