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FrantikRam

Why don't MVPs win the Super Bowl?

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10 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

It doesn't work against them at all figuratively. It just gets noticed more when the "MVP" either plays poorly or gets bounced from the playoffs

Figuratively? Or literally? So you're saying is that there really is nothing "curse"-like about it, or anything that is actually making them more likely to lose. It's just random.

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1 minute ago, DannyB said:

Figuratively? Or literally? So you're saying is that there really is nothing "curse"-like about it, or anything that is actually making them more likely to lose. It's just random.

Look at it this way

Is the team with the best record 100% the best team in terms of record? Yes

Are they actually the "Best team" - possible, but not 100%

The fact is they can 100% have the best record, but there odds of actually winning the Superbowl would only maybe be 30%, given 11 other teams in the playoffs, but despite having the best record, there still is a lot of formidable competition

Same thing with MVP's - The odds, no matter how good they are, or how good their team is they are on, are still not in their favor

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2 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

Look at it this way

Is the team with the best record 100% the best team in terms of record? Yes

Are they actually the "Best team" - possible, but not 100%

The fact is they can 100% have the best record, but there odds of actually winning the Superbowl would only maybe be 30%, given 11 other teams in the playoffs, but despite having the best record, there still is a lot of formidable competition

Same thing with MVP's - The odds, no matter how good they are, or how good their team is they are on, are still not in their favor

Yes thanks I know that. I feel like you don't understand my point or something. It's like you're answering something different than I'm asking.

You think the reason an MVP hasn't won the Super Bowl is, basically random chance. That's a fine answer, let's just stick with that. I tend to agree.

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9 hours ago, ShupacTakur said:

It's just a wacky coincidence. Kinda like the Madden curse or the super bowl loser missing the playoffs the following year curse. It's not really a thing, sports fans are just superstitious by nature. 

When does it become a thing and not coincidence, curious? Year 30? Its occured 13 times in 63 years. Not since 1999. It's not superstition.  It's a trend!

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1 minute ago, DannyB said:

Yes thanks I know that. I feel like you don't understand my point or something. It's like you're answering something different than I'm asking.

You think the reason an MVP hasn't won the Super Bowl is, basically random chance. That's a fine answer, let's just stick with that. I tend to agree.

It's not that it's random, it's just that the odds are not in their favour to do so. Being MVP does not ordain them any kind of advantage

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The salary cap is the great equalizer. Sure, it’s still nice to have an mvp-caliber QB, but if he’s taking up an mvp amount of cap space, that mitigates the advantage they provide and it limits how much talent will be on the rest of the roster.

If you look at it statistically, even MVP QB’s often lose like 25% of their games in the reg. season. So if you assume they have an average win rate of 75%, even if they have a bye, the odds of them going 3-0 in 3 games is 0.75*0.75*0.75= 42.3% (& odds drop to 31.2% if the have to go 4-0). And their win-rate against *playoff-caliber* teams is probably quite a bit less than 75%, so the real percentages are even lower than that. Not to mention that the odds will drop even more if he is playing on the road instead of at home. 

 

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MVP's don't win Super Bowls because the NFL is the ultimate TEAM sport and the playoffs are a completely different animal compared the regular season, so it's easier for players to perform at their highest in the reg season without the same amount of pressure there are the playoffs. Just my opinion.

Edited by JustAnotherFan

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Just more circumstance and luck than anything else. Looking at that list there are at least 5 or 6 instances where just a play here or there would have seen the MVP also win the Super Bowl.

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As usual there are several factors here:

 

1.  If you are a great player on a balanced Elite team - you won’t win MVP if there’s another great player on a more unbalanced team that relies on that other guy (Brady vs. Manning).  Balanced teams generally do better in the playoffs.  
 

2.  The MVP is pretty much always a QB and / or O player.  Great D’s can negate those players in 1 do or die game (SEA vs. Peyton, DEN vs. Cam).  

 

3.   Coaching makes a much bigger difference in games between evenly matched teams.   This year is an outlier in which the Coach of Year & MVP could be on the same team.   Great coaching staffs on good teams can isolate 1 great player and often reduce their impact.    And it’s far easier to take out 1 great player on an O than it is on more balanced teams.  
 

It’s not always all 3 reasons above sometimes it’s 1, or a combo.  But they all factor in.  

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Because usually they get MVP for elevating a crappy team.

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9 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

When does it become a thing and not coincidence, curious? Year 30? Its occured 13 times in 63 years. Not since 1999. It's not superstition.  It's a trend!

There is no magical force that prohibits MVP's from winning the super bowl. It is a trend, but it's also fairy dust. Winning the super bowl is hard. Winning the MVP is hard. Winning both in the same season is very, very, very hard. However, it will eventually happen again.  

Edited by ShupacTakur

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If you use the earlier example of 16 playoff contenders it's a 15/16 chance that the MVP is not on the eventual champ team.  Odds of that happening 20 years in a row is about 27%.  Going this length of time is strange but not exceptionally so in my mind.  If you want to limit it to just playoff teams its closer to 18%.

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14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

When does it become a thing and not coincidence, curious? Year 30? Its occured 13 times in 63 years. Not since 1999. It's not superstition.  It's a trend!

That's not how probability works.

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8 hours ago, ShupacTakur said:
18 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

When does it become a thing and not coincidence, curious? Year 30? Its occured 13 times in 63 years. Not since 1999. It's not superstition.  It's a trend!

There is no magical force that prohibits MVP's from winning the super bowl. It is a trend, but it's also fairy dust. Winning the super bowl is hard. Winning the MVP is hard. Winning both in the same season is very, very, very hard. However, it will eventually happen again.

Never said it wouldn't happen again but I'd rather go with the opposing odds of not having the League MVP and potentially winning the SB.

There are many things in Sports that eventually will be achieved again,  broken or finally accomplished!

2,000 yds Recieving 

2,000 yds Rushing

MVP- SB same season

HC Winning a SB for two separate Teams

Any number of , It will happen agains or for the first Time! Like it or not,  it's still unlikely to occur. So why root for MVP, so you can be a Pioneer? I'll pass.

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