2020 Off-season Discussion Thread

[Joe]

13 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I think Sternberger will be decent, I'm not expecting him to all of a sudden be the second coming of George Kittle or something. Last season we got a good look at his blocking which looked pretty good though, that's encouraging since we are running the ball a lot with LaFleur. Lewis and him will be good blocking TEs for us. My expectations for Sternberger is around maybe 30-40 catches, 400-500 yards, 3-5 TDs. We just need him to replace Grahams production and be a better willing blocker.

Agreed. I think he'll match Graham's production if not out perform him. 

 

58 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

What mathematics would that be ?
Historical or aggregate numbers mean little or nothing with regards to the specific case of Jace Sternberger

Here's why: Those historical numbers do not offer any context such as who was in front of that rookie/sophomore on the depth chart, who was the coach, what was the offense, what was the opportunity, who was the athlete.

In the case of Jace - he has upside left in his development, more so than most rookie TEs given his limited resume in college
The front office thought enough of his future to invest a mid 3rd round pick in him after assessment by professional scouts and front office guys.
He landed on a team with a HC and playcaller that values and utilizes TEs extensively in this scheme
He landed on a team with (2) graybeards who can accelerate his development and both Graham and Lewis invested time in working with him
He has the requisite athleticism, he isn't a dumbass and players making the leap in year 2 is a huge part of NFL draft & development

All of that together points to a golden opportunity and the right environment to get the most out of him. The aggregate and historical data don't contemplate these specifics and very few college TEs come into such a favorable situation as Jace did in Green Bay.

I'm quite confident in Jace Sternberger and his opportunity to produce in 2020 and beyond.

Others may feel differently.
And they manage to convey their thoughts without calling everybody a moron, a liar or the pejorative version of a homer simply for having the temerity to disagree with your always-dour outlook. You can do better and we deserve better.

Everything you just typed outside of the bold is why he'll be a better pro than a college player. On the other hand, given the bold snippet he'll be a better pro than college player at least on paper.

---

Sternberger will be a middle-of-the-road TE that'll probably come up with plays when we need him too much like Brent Celek did for the Iggles all those years back. The difference, of course, is that Sternberger is much more athletic than Celek and I suspect he won't be functioning as a safety valve. You look at his combine write-up and the "sources tell us" incipit and it's all good news.

 

[jleisher]

For a team that didn't have much cap space, the Bears sure are spending.

[Shanedorf]

4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

He's not a guy that you can count on at all.

He's not a guy you will count on and that's just fine.
Others feel differently. And for every 80 % aggregate stat you throw out, there's 20% that succeeded.
"Tedford QBs are all busts too"  history has proven that over and over.

Bottom line: You don't have a monopoly on the truth or the future of Mr. Jace Evan Sternberger -  and those that disagree are not all liars or homers.

[Jaegybomb]

I think I trust Jace about as much as I trust Lazard.

[MacReady]

14 minutes ago, jleisher said:

For a team that didn't have much cap space, the Bears sure are spending.

He’s spending because he knows his job is on the line.  It’s a miracle he lasted this long after the moves he’s made.  Trubisky over Watson/Mahomes, Mack trade, Nagy hire, trading Howard and then having zero run game...

The moves the Bears are making are of desperation.  Over the past two years we’ve heard the hype of the Bears and the Vikings and how they’re building contenders.  We’ve heard hype that the Packers are on the decline.  Of those thre teams, the Packers have won more playoff games combined in a single postseason.

That’s why you see two GMs making moves and one GM remaining patient.

[Joe]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

He’s spending because he knows his job is on the line.  It’s a miracle he lasted this long after the moves he’s made.  Trubisky over Watson/Mahomes, Mack trade, Nagy hire, trading Howard and then having zero run game...

The moves the Bears are making are of desperation.  Over the past two years we’ve heard the hype of the Bears and the Vikings and how they’re building contenders.  We’ve heard hype that the Packers are on the decline.  Of those thre teams, the Packers have won more playoff games combined in a single postseason.

That’s why you see two GMs making moves and one GM remaining patient.

the Mack trade and Nagy hire really weren't all that bad. The problem is that Pace is a descendant of the previous regime; ask any Bears fan and they'll launch into an anti-Pace rant. If I'm Matt Nagy, I'm hoping I can survive post-Pace given that he'll get the ax after this year unless they are somewhat competitive with Foles; which I doubt they will be given that the Bears don't have the OL that Philly did when he was there both times...

[Brit Pack]

Looks like Poe is on the way to Dallas. Real shame there. Would of been good for us and wouldn't have counted against a comp pick

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

He's not a guy you will count on and that's just fine.
Others feel differently. And for every 80 % aggregate stat you throw out, there's 20% that succeeded.
"Tedford QBs are all busts too"  history has proven that over and over.

Bottom line: You don't have a monopoly on the truth or the future of Mr. Jace Evan Sternberger -  and those that disagree are not all liars or homers.

And you think this helps your case?

[Golfman]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Historical and aggregate numbers are the best way to predict a players success. Every individual is in a unique situation. However the large sample size plays that out.

Using a "limited resume in college" as a positive thing is another thing that doesn't correlate to reality. Guys that are good pros often are the ones that are good college players immediately.

Every third round pick is a pick that a professional front office thought highly enough of to draft in the third round. And they still bust 80ish percent of the time.

Our HC sure utilized our TEs with high volume and efficiency last year . . . Oh wait, that didn't happen.

Most mid round rookies come in with veterans in front of them to mentor them. They still bust 80ish percent of the time.

The second year leap is important to all rookies. And they still bust 80ish percent of the time.

What about his situation is favorable? He barely got to play his rookie year which has proven very bad for development. He has a QB that doesn't throw to TEs and throws over the middle at a very low rate.

Sternberger is a lottery ticket. He's not a guy that you can count on at all.

 

If all of our players suck with no chance of improvement, why do you want to go all in this year on an aging QB? Sounds like the prudent play would be to fire sale our few pieces that have ANY value at all and start over. 

 

[craig]

Jace is in a somewhat unusual position, to have such a clear opportunity with so little competition.  That in itself won't make him good or average; but the window of opportunity is as wide open as is ever possible for an NFL player. 

There's some risk with that; when young players have easy opportunity, and as a result accumulate some volume numbers, there's a risk of confusing opportunity-based numbers with being good or having good potential.  I think both Quarless and RRodgers caught some balls and had some yards as young TE's, which led to some hope that they had some potential.  Perhaps the same with rookie WRs EQ and MVS?  (There were too many comparisons of their rookie numbers to those of guys like Jordy, Cobb, Adams, and Driver....) 

But yeah, if Jace can't win snaps from Tonyan and Mercedes, that would be a very bad sign.   For teams to come out on top, they need to win on some uncertain players.  If he's got a 20% chance to be solid, we need to hope that it happens.  

[AlexGreen#20]

33 minutes ago, Golfman said:

If all of our players suck with no chance of improvement, why do you want to go all in this year on an aging QB? Sounds like the prudent play would be to fire sale our few pieces that have ANY value at all and start over. 

 

Where and when did I ever say all of our players suck?

[coachbuns]

7 hours ago, Golfman said:

Exactly, and none of those courses are in GB. If you want to pick NY golf vs. Wisconsin golf, good luck on that one. Love the courses you mentioned however. 

 I'll golf in Wisconsin, you golf in New York. Carry on.

[{Family Ghost}]

1 hour ago, Brit Pack said:

Looks like Poe is on the way to Dallas. Real shame there. Would of been good for us and wouldn't have counted against a comp pick

We are apparently paralyzed by the upcoming Kenny Clark externsion, or something.

[MrBobGray]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Historical and aggregate numbers are the best way to predict a players success. Every individual is in a unique situation. However the large sample size plays that out.

Using a "limited resume in college" as a positive thing is another thing that doesn't correlate to reality. Guys that are good pros often are the ones that are good college players immediately.

Every third round pick is a pick that a professional front office thought highly enough of to draft in the third round. And they still bust 80ish percent of the time.

Our HC sure utilized our TEs with high volume and efficiency last year . . . Oh wait, that didn't happen.

Most mid round rookies come in with veterans in front of them to mentor them. They still bust 80ish percent of the time.

The second year leap is important to all rookies. And they still bust 80ish percent of the time.

What about his situation is favorable? He barely got to play his rookie year which has proven very bad for development. He has a QB that doesn't throw to TEs and throws over the middle at a very low rate.

Sternberger is a lottery ticket. He's not a guy that you can count on at all.

 

I can't agree that he wasn't good in college.  Sternberger was good in college every time he had a chance.  He was red-shirted his freshman year, and his sophomore year he was at Kansas which strictly refused to use their TEs at all in the passing game.  Their entire TE group caught 11 passes that season.  He went JUCO and tied for the team lead in TDs his only season there and was 4th on the team in yards (behind 3 WRs) and averaged 16 YPC.  Left for Texas A&M and went off for 832 and 10 TDs in his only season starting there.  There was never a time he was given an opportunity he didn't run with it.  

Statistics are useful but they're just data.  Being aware of historical trends is one thing, but they should be a supplemental piece to a proper evaluation of the situation, not a replacement.  Jace is in a group that busts 80% of the time, but that doesn't mean we have to close our eyes and assume his personal bust rate is 80% just like you wouldn't look at a player that shows up to camp overweight and gets embarrassed when he's on the field and say "hey still a 20% chance he turns this around!"  Sternberger scares me a bit as a prospect due to his build and lack of physical development at a position that really needs it, but I think he's done and shown enough to be at least given a shot at TE1.

Now granted, I don't actually know what this discussion was about, and I am personally wary about his 2020, but I just can't resist the chance to talk about something without bothering to learn context.

[Jaegybomb]

It kind of sounds like Robby Anderson has a standing offer for 10 mil per year from the Jets and is just waiting to see if anyone gets desperate enough to match.