Heimdallr Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, animaltested said: The upcoming Seattle Sounders game has been postponed. If the MN United home opener on Sunday doesn't happen I'm gonna riot. Luckily there are only 3 cases in MN so far - nowhere near what is going on out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: If the MN United home opener on Sunday doesn't happen I'm gonna riot. Luckily there are only 3 cases in MN so far - nowhere near what is going on out west. who cares about MLS lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Heimdallr said: Luckily there are only 3 cases in MN so far A month ago there were 3 only cases in Italy. As of now, the entire country of 60 million is on quarantine. If I were you, I'd close the borders and try keep the easily-infected Cheeseheads away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 50 minutes ago, showtime said: So many events have been either canceled or postponed so far. E3, SXSW, Warriors playing a home game vs the Nets with no fans in the arena, Schools canceling in-person classes, etc. Going to be insane as this gets worse. Really concerned about the draft. I think they're going to shut it down and Vegas will not be happy and neither will I. There was a dialogue I had w/ a guy on Reddit who said he worked for a major company that had a play in a lot of events a few weeks back. He said the festival in Miami was going to be canceled, said that SXSW would be canceled, as well as Coachella and they were under the impression that the draft would be massively effected. He's 2.5/3 right now as Coachella was just postponed so there's that. Take it FWIW. I think time is on our side there since we're 1.5 months away but something will need to be determined soon. March Madness will definitely be impacted. Can't see any way around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 51 minutes ago, Danger said: Penn State has confirmed online only classes starting Monday (They are on spring break this week anyways) Basically every school in SE Ohio has done the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, 11sanchez11 said: oh I didn't read either one, well I just scanned both after posting. hers seemed like if we do nothing at all to prevent it this is what would happen. or if we let this loose in a lab here's what would happen and apply that to humans. i guess there is value to that? but people were already doing stuff to prevent it from spreading and will continue to do so. Sort of. What he said was technically true. If you extrapolate geometric growth (the doubling) forever, you can come up with something wholly unrealistic. And it's good to make sure that you check your results at the end of any type of prediction and make sure that everything passes the smell test or common sense test. So he used tumor size as an example, and he's right that cancer grows exponentially at the beginning and then levels off before tumors get to the size of a car or small city, and if you modeled a tumor that size you'd be wrong. That said, he's missing a ton of context. Tumors don't get that big because eventually it becomes impossible to get nutrients to the tumor, either because of the volume of the tumor growing faster than the surface area, or because the tumor kills the person and dead people don't eat. In this case, what rationale is there to suppress the exponential growth of the coronavirus in the immediate future? I don't know of one, and he didn't provide it. We are just supposed to follow along or assume that because someone doubled something for a while, it turned from serious modeling to silly back of the napkin math. Even though what he's saying about making sure things are physiologically realistic is good advice in a vacuum, I think he's making at least one pretty substantial logic jump that I don't buy. If the original thread had concluded that by the end of the year 47 quadrillion people would be infected with coronavirus, then yeah his argument works, but 20% of the world infected isn't a tumor the size of a bus. It's happened before, and it will happen again. Quote these two tweets were of interest to me. 1st is obvious why. tho China has more control over their population. but on the other hand they are also a way denser population/society. the 2nd one just cause idk if she factored in people that get it and become immune to it in her the world is gonna end #s. She didn't factor in herd immunity, all she did was use a 6-day cycle time and the R0 of 2ish to basically mean the number of cases doubles every week. In real life, that will slow down as the odds of each of the 2.5ish transmittable people being naive decrease. But no one should be factoring in any real type of immunity to this thing over the next few days/weeks because there hasn't been enough of the population exposed to it yet. Edited March 11, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said: I think they're going to shut it down and Vegas will not be happy and neither will I. There's really no other options and late April is likely approaching peak infection time so I wouldn't bet on this being resolved by then - quite the opposite I think the NFL is just looking at options to see how they can still take some of your money without putting you in a large group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: dead people don't eat. Um... Zombies!? For someone so smart, you really miss the detalistic details of a summization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: So he used tumor size as an example, and he's right, that cancer grows exponentially at the beginning and then levels off before tumors get to the size of a car or small city, and if you modeled a tumor that size you'd be wrong. Here's an article from an epidemiologist at Penn State, they are using actual epidemics to model epidemics instead of trying to bridge from tumors I posted a couple of snippets below, lots more in the article https://themoderatevoice.com/how-big-will-the-coronavirus-epidemic-be-an-epidemiologist-updates-his-concerns/amp/ I am an epidemiologist with eight years of field experience, including time on the front lines of the isolation and quarantine efforts during the 2009 swine flu pandemic...Scientists working at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and the Institute for Disease Modeling have used these approaches to estimate the infection fatality rate. Currently, these estimates range from 0.5% to 0.94% indicating that COVID-19 is about 10 to 20 times as deadly as seasonal influenza. On balance, it is reasonable to guess that COVID-19 will infect as many Americans over the next year as influenza does in a typical winter – somewhere between 25 million and 115 million. Maybe a bit more if the virus turns out to be more contagious than we thought. Maybe a bit less if we put restrictions in place that minimize our travel and our social and professional contacts. The bad news is, of course, that these infection numbers translate to 350,000 to 660,000 people dying in the U.S., with an uncertainty range that goes from 50,000 deaths to 5 million deaths. The good news is that this is not a weather forecast. The size of the epidemic, i.e., the total number of infections, is something we can reduce if we decrease our contact patterns and improve our hygiene. If the total number of infections decreases, the total number of deaths will also decrease." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 minute ago, ET80 said: Um... Zombies!? For someone so smart, you really miss the detalistic details of a summization. Zombies aren't people, which is why it's acceptable to shoot them with a sawed off shotgun (no other gun choice is acceptable per every movie ever). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: Here's an article from an epidemiologist at Penn State, they are using actual epidemics to model epidemics instead of trying to bridge from tumors I posted a couple of snippets below, lots more in the article https://themoderatevoice.com/how-big-will-the-coronavirus-epidemic-be-an-epidemiologist-updates-his-concerns/amp/ I am an epidemiologist with eight years of field experience, including time on the front lines of the isolation and quarantine efforts during the 2009 swine flu pandemic...Scientists working at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and the Institute for Disease Modeling have used these approaches to estimate the infection fatality rate. Currently, these estimates range from 0.5% to 0.94% indicating that COVID-19 is about 10 to 20 times as deadly as seasonal influenza. On balance, it is reasonable to guess that COVID-19 will infect as many Americans over the next year as influenza does in a typical winter – somewhere between 25 million and 115 million. Maybe a bit more if the virus turns out to be more contagious than we thought. Maybe a bit less if we put restrictions in place that minimize our travel and our social and professional contacts. The bad news is, of course, that these infection numbers translate to 350,000 to 660,000 people dying in the U.S., with an uncertainty range that goes from 50,000 deaths to 5 million deaths. The good news is that this is not a weather forecast. The size of the epidemic, i.e., the total number of infections, is something we can reduce if we decrease our contact patterns and improve our hygiene. If the total number of infections decreases, the total number of deaths will also decrease." For the record, I don't knock that guy for trying to explain this using cancer since people know what it is and using a "tumor the size of a city" analogy since people would understand why that's a non-starter. In the thread he mentioned that he works in a Scientific Information campaign, and clearly was trying to relate something complicated using an imperfect analogy to familiarize it to the general public. That's what scientists should do. I just don't buy his logic at all unless he provides a compelling reason that coronavirus is going to behave differently than other viruses or infectious diseases. I haven't looked very hard, but most of the other models in literature are way, way more pessimistic than his, and they aren't all using the worst case scenario either. Edited March 11, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: There's really no other options and late April is likely approaching peak infection time so I wouldn't bet on this being resolved by then - quite the opposite I think the NFL is just looking at options to see how they can still take some of your money without putting you in a large group. I'm not disagreeing w/ you, unfortunately. Only saving grace is next year, it's in Cleveland. Not sure if they would just bump everything back a year or not and move Vegas to next year but if it happens this way, at least I'll be seeing the 2021 draft in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: UW-Madison did the same thing starting after spring break. Students have to vacate the dorms too. Michigan just did the same thing. Shows just how large this is, as Michigan is one of the few D1 schools that doesn't offer online classes for undergrad students and now they are completely adapting to make it happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Just now, winitall said: Michigan just did the same thing. Shows just how large this is, as Michigan is one of the few D1 schools that doesn't offer online classes for undergrad students and now they are completely adapting to make it happen. I think it also shows that the schools with the medical experts are the first ones on the train. We're adapting before this is a problem, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I think it also shows that the schools with the medical experts are the first ones on the train. We're adapting before this is a problem, which is good. I'm glad we're starting to be more pro-active. It'd be easy to sit back and say "Its really not a huge deal, itll blow over" but thats why its spreading so fast. I work in public education and I'm wondering if it'll get bad enough to the point of High Schools teaching remotely for a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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