Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

10 hours ago, mistakey said:

Pretty sure they think its just not really gonna mutate much more, not more or less lethal

This is true. Coronaviruses in general do not mutate nearly as much as the flu, which is good news going forward. One vaccine should do wonders. 

 

Link: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

Edited March 30, 2020 by WizeGuy

[WizeGuy]

15 hours ago, mistakey said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/europe/Spain-coronavirus-nursing-homes.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

welp

Also, people who have cancer, get infected with the virus, and die- are said to have died from cancer. This is happening in the US as well. The death toll is not accurate at all. 

[WizeGuy]

11 hours ago, Danger said:

I compiled numbers found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They document everything somewhere. The graph is something I made. Italy is a good basis for us to try and figure out our timescale running on the assumption that we are 2-3 weeks behind them. The most notable potential pitfall with this logic though is as @mission27 mentioned, the vastness of our geographic scale could cause this to seep into various pockets later than say individual european countries.

Exponential growth is what I follow the most closely. That's what I believe to be the most accurate in correlation with how fast this is spreading, though it's still not fool proof. 

 

Good news- Italy has been steadily declining in exponential growth over the past 5 days or so. 

[MWil23]

This is our first official day of online learning for the students that I teach (grades 10-12).  I'm unsure of how our students are going to respond to this as far as doing the work vs. blowing it off, etc. Hopefully we all make the most of it. I'm utilizing Google Classroom, forms, docs, slides, etc. We are not allowed to use live platforms like Google Hangouts, live videos, etc., and we do have a contingent of students with extenuating circumstances like lack of internet, access to technology, or excuses about it as well, so I'm not sure what our administrative team is going to do in these regards.

[Malfatron]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

This is our first official day of online learning for the students that I teach (grades 10-12).  I'm unsure of how our students are going to respond to this as far as doing the work vs. blowing it off, etc. Hopefully we all make the most of it. I'm utilizing Google Classroom, forms, docs, slides, etc. We are not allowed to use live platforms like Google Hangouts, live videos, etc., and we do have a contingent of students with extenuating circumstances like lack of internet, access to technology, or excuses about it as well, so I'm not sure what our administrative team is going to do in these regards.

For me having a kid whos doing this, im luckt that kids are pretty adept with technology nowadays.

Its been pretty seemless for us as parents.

I think the kids will get it

[MWil23]

Just now, Malfatron said:

For me having a kid whos doing this, im luckt that kids are pretty adept with technology nowadays.

Its been pretty seemless for us as parents.

I think the kids will get it

I should specify what I was saying:

Thankfully I've been utilizing technology for years in our classroom with the above, and every single student in our high school has a ChromeBook (federal grant), so the expectations are pretty clear and most students will excel.

While I don't know you personally, I have a very strong feeling that you are a good parent with clear expectations, will hold your kid accountable, help them, etc.

My concern is those without that support system at home from parents, and those who are responsible for other things, like watching younger siblings while both parents work, have rough home situations, etc.

It's weird because I teach an upper level college class, two general classes, and work with at risk students via an online platform to recover credits for failure, so I see the entire gamut of our population. My district is predominately middle to upper middle class, so most of our students will have these supports, but I'm concerned about the 10-15% of the population that doesn't, and I'm afraid that they'll slip through the cracks.

I hope that makes sense!

[theJ]

6 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

This is our first official day of online learning for the students that I teach (grades 10-12).  I'm unsure of how our students are going to respond to this as far as doing the work vs. blowing it off, etc. Hopefully we all make the most of it. I'm utilizing Google Classroom, forms, docs, slides, etc. We are not allowed to use live platforms like Google Hangouts, live videos, etc., and we do have a contingent of students with extenuating circumstances like lack of internet, access to technology, or excuses about it as well, so I'm not sure what our administrative team is going to do in these regards.

My wife and her school are transitioning more to online platforms this week as well.  Right before they stopped in-person school, they handed out three weeks worth of material, but now that the reality is here that this is likely to continue for at least twice as long, teachers are starting to utilize live sessions, google forms, etc.  

Some parents aren't necessarily happy about this however.  She showed me a facebook post from one of her students parents last night talking about how since school likely wasn't going to resume this year (and nothing will be graded), that she has already declared her child graduated from the 4th grade and won't be having her do any more school work for the rest of the year.  And that parent wonders why her child has problems with authority figures.

[theJ]

Just now, MWil23 said:

My concern is those without that support system at home from parents, and those who are responsible for other things, like watching younger siblings while both parents work, have rough home situations, etc.

 

Yep, those kids are going to fall further behind.  See my post above.

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, theJ said:

Some parents aren't necessarily happy about this however.  She showed me a facebook post from one of her students parents last night talking about how since school likely wasn't going to resume this year (and nothing will be graded), that she has already declared her child graduated from the 4th grade and won't be having her do any more school work for the rest of the year.  And that parent wonders why her child has problems with authority figures.

Administration has told us to email them/keep them updated about those "not doing work" over the next week or so. I don't think that they understand the volume of kids who will not be doing work, and frankly, I don't know what their gameplan is. For example, one of my classes, I have 30 sophomores. They're a GREAT class, but there are 5-8 kids that I have to monitor and hold accountable DAILY to do work, turn things in, stay on task, etc. We have good rapport, and since I've been doing this for a while now, you know what to expect, how to handle things, when to let them sink/swim, etc. Not having that face to face accountability for these kids means I know that 5-8 of them will do NOTHING...and that's a GOOD CLASS. I think in a school of our size (2,500+ 9-12), we are going to have hundreds of students doing NOTHING for various reasons.

[Danger]

19 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Exponential growth is what I follow the most closely. That's what I believe to be the most accurate in correlation with how fast this is spreading, though it's still not fool proof. 

 

Good news- Italy has been steadily declining in exponential growth over the past 5 days or so. 

Growth Rate represents exponential growth. Early on in Italy it was hovering around 1.3

Meaning: (Numbers represent new added cases)
Day 1: 10
Day 2: 13
Day 3: 17
Day 4: 22
Day 5: 29
Day 6: 37
Day 7: 48
Day 8: etc

The Growth rate has been declining in Italy, now dropping to ~1, meaning that the number of new cases is no longer increasing. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, theJ said:

Yep, those kids are going to fall further behind.  See my post above.

I can’t help but think the curriculum isn’t going to be advancing much the next two months but rather just giving kids some activities to keep them engaged as much as possible, especially the younger kids.  
 

This is just a lost 2.5 months of their education tbh.

[MWil23]

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I can’t help but think the curriculum isn’t going to be advancing much the next two months but rather just giving kids some activities to keep them engaged as much as possible, especially the younger kids.  
 

This is just a lost 2.5 months of their education tbh.

Yeah, this will have a negative 2-3 year residual impact in terms of "content", because not only do they lose that, but next year they will be behind where they would be, meaning more review, catch-up, etc. Don't get me wrong, content is actually not as big of a concern right now as a variety of other things. Don't get me wrong, I'm passionate about content, but that's not why I got into education.

Throw in other factors like how spring sports are done, the NCAA is talking about canceling football in 2020, and the residual impact that will/could have on high schools across America, etc., and 2020-2021 could be just as challenging as what we're going through right now.

[WizeGuy]

16 minutes ago, Danger said:

Growth Rate represents exponential growth. Early on in Italy it was hovering around 1.3

Meaning: (Numbers represent new added cases)
Day 1: 10
Day 2: 13
Day 3: 17
Day 4: 22
Day 5: 29
Day 6: 37
Day 7: 48
Day 8: etc

The Growth rate has been declining in Italy, now dropping to ~1, meaning that the number of new cases is no longer increasing. 

Thanks for clarifying. It's been a while since I've taken Economics. My point, which was not made clear it all, is actually more in regards to testing. The percentage of individuals testing positive in Italy has been steadily decreasing. That's a good metric to go by, imo, though testing standards will play a large role in that (Are they testing more people who aren't showing symptoms? or are they using the same guidelines?). Regardless, 5 days of steady decrease is a good trend. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Yeah, this will have a negative 2-3 year residual impact in terms of "content", because not only do they lose that, but next year they will be behind where they would be, meaning more review, catch-up, etc. Don't get me wrong, content is actually not as big of a concern right now as a variety of other things. Don't get me wrong, I'm passionate about content, but that's not why I got into education.

Throw in other factors like how spring sports are done, the NCAA is talking about canceling football in 2020, and the residual impact that will/could have on high schools across America, etc., and 2020-2021 could be just as challenging as what we're going through right now.

Yeah it’s hard to even say at this point.  As crazy as it sounds I don’t think it’s an absolute guarantee classes start up in August tbh.

Unless we have some sort of treatment or vaccine or something.  We’re just so far behind as far as preventative measures compared to countries who’ve done a better job than us at trying to stop it and we have no idea if there’s going to be a second or third wave of this thing.

Edited March 30, 2020 by LETSGOBROWNIES

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah it’s hard to even say at this point.  As crazy as it sounds I don’t think it’s an absolute guarantee classes start up in August tbh.

Unless we have some sort of treatment or vaccine or something.  We’re just so far behind as far as preventative measures compared to countries who’ve done a better job than us at trying to stop it and we have no idea if there’s going to be a second or third wave of this thing.

From what I've seen, this is all going to hit the hardest in April/early May, and there will likely be a rebound factor in August/September, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this continue through the fall. I don't even want to bring this up to my coworkers, or fellow coaches either. The social/emotional support for our staff, students, and athletes/extracurricular students will be at an all time high.