Hunter2_1 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: The thing is, people do know. Japan’s population density is nearly 10x that of the US. They use public transport and such much more frequently than we do as well, where people are herded into confined areas. They too just hit 100k cases. The difference is that number is from the start of the pandemic until now, not one single day like us. They have a more difficult task and are doing an exponentially better job. There’s no secrets or magic formula, it’s just wear a mask and don’t be a moron. That’s pretty much it. And we’re failing. No one needs to reinvent the wheel or throw their hands up and wonder “but what do we do now?!?”. The answer is know and had been known for months. All they have to do is implement it. But they won’t. I meant specifically to the UK's government who have been putting out mixed messages for months. These are obviously written in jest, but it exemplifies how the population largely feels. There isn't a huge anti-mask movement, but you do obviously get some prx who think they know best. Edited October 31, 2020 by Hunter2_1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: If we did everything right as a country from the start, how many deaths would we be at? 0 If we'd done a better job this never would've happened tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, mission27 said: 0 If we'd done a better job this never would've happened tbh Are you talking about completely shutting off the country from the rest of the world? Otherwise I don't see how that would be possible. Or should we have used a drone to take out the guy in China who first had it before he spread it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Just now, vikesfan89 said: Are you talking about completely shutting off the country from the rest of the world? Otherwise I don't see how that would be possible. Or should we have used a drone to take out the guy in China who first had it before he spread it? Immediate, mandatory 2 week quarantines for everybody coming into the US abroad, and a national mask/social distancing mandate from early February that's universally supported by political leadership and we not only cut off most outbreaks at the source by quarantining everyone who might be brining COVID in, but by wearing masks we keep the R0 low even if there is someone who gets the virus through the initial bubble. Maybe not exactly 0, but I'd bet that reduces total COVID mortality in the US by >> 90%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 32 minutes ago, mission27 said: If we'd done a better job this never would've happened tbh It was, what, 6 weeks ago that the CDC director said if we wore masks consistently for 6 weeks that this pandemic would be "under control". This is still fixable, it's just our collective behavior is getting worse not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Immediate, mandatory 2 week quarantines for everybody coming into the US abroad, and a national mask/social distancing mandate from early February that's universally supported by political leadership and we not only cut off most outbreaks at the source by quarantining everyone who might be brining COVID in, but by wearing masks we keep the R0 low even if there is someone who gets the virus through the initial bubble. Maybe not exactly 0, but I'd bet that reduces total COVID mortality in the US by >> 90%. What about everything being shipped? The people receiving the shipments aren't going to be able to quarantine every time. Maybe they can reduce contact and wear masks but I don't think that would be 100% effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVScout Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, vikesfan89 said: If we did everything right as a country from the start, how many deaths would we be at? Old data but still instructive: . South Korea did everything right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: What about everything being shipped? The people receiving the shipments aren't going to be able to quarantine every time. Maybe they can reduce contact and wear masks but I don't think that would be 100% effective. That's what the mask/distance policy is for. The bulk of transmission is person to person, so if you limit that by wearing masks the small amounts of positives from incidental exposure like that won't have a chance to snowball out of control, which keeps the total deaths small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 45 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: Are you talking about completely shutting off the country from the rest of the world? Otherwise I don't see how that would be possible. Or should we have used a drone to take out the guy in China who first had it before he spread it? We don't really know how this started but the two leading theories I've heard (live wildlife markets and accidental exposure from that lab in Wuhan) are both things the global public health community, led by the US, were 100% aware of as risks and didn't put enough pressure on China to fix. Once human to human transmission started in Wuhan I personally don't think there's much anyone could've done to prevent a large scale global pandemic, we could've slowed it down a bit, but it was going to kill hundreds of thousands to millions of people. We should've listened to Bill Gates and invested in preventing this **** in the first place tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, TVScout said: Old data but still instructive: . South Korea did everything right: Yes, Asia did great. They did the right thing when it was still at low enough levels to implement real testing and tracing. Western hemisphere did not do that and then got hit by the double whammy of a more contagious strain emerging in Italy and spreading to the US and Americas. The chart is less instructive as to how Western democratic societies have done, on a relative basis, now that we see the long expected massive second wave in Europe. Tbh, as the MoL said at the time, I think Europe and Canada suffered a bit of delusional smugness re their ability to keep cases down over the summer. This is a highly seasonal disease in temperate climates. It was warm and humid and people were spending time outdoors and so the disease did not spread. The northeast US has a similar climate and similar curve. But Europe and Canada did not institute South Korea style testing and tracing, did not scale up hospital capacity, European and Canadian people were actually worse about wearing masks than folks in much of the US because they got complacent with low case counts, and Europe had more open international travel. And the result is a massive second wave. Biggest lesson of this pandemic is you need to figure testing and tracing and before you get to widespread community transmission. Because once you do, its basically impossible to get that genie back in the bottle long term. Europe and Canada and the US (even varying by region) have pursued different strategies and had varying success at different points but ultimately once we got to widespread community transmission, I don't think it was ever realistic that we could "crush the curve" without either indefinite Wuhan style authoritarian lockdowns or a highly effective vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 France is by far doing the worst right now. Growth in Europe is increasing exponentially in general, but France with 1/5 the population of the US has 1/2 the number of cases. If they had our population they'd be looking at ~200,000 cases per day. One thing I REALLY want to keep an eye on in the next couple of months, does the number of cases in South America drastically fall off in the next couple months. They were hit hard during their winter months and if we see them fall off now then that would pretty much put the nail in the coffin IMO that this is incredibly seasonably dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Danger said: One thing I REALLY want to keep an eye on in the next couple of months, does the number of cases in South America drastically fall off in the next couple months. They were hit hard during their winter months and if we see them fall off now then that would pretty much put the nail in the coffin IMO that this is incredibly seasonably dependent. I would argue what we've seen in Europe and the northern US has already done that tbh Put another one in the W column for the MoL. Hate to have been right on this one tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 At this point I am in favor of entering a 2-4 week lockdown to perhaps nip this in the bud. No more than that though. Can't stay locked down long term. Ultimately what's most important is that people wear masks and socially distance and practice good hygiene though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 36 minutes ago, Danger said: At this point I am in favor of entering a 2-4 week lockdown to perhaps nip this in the bud. No more than that though. Can't stay locked down long term. Ultimately what's most important is that people wear masks and socially distance and practice good hygiene though. Fauci predicted this goes on for all of 2021. That’s absurd. I’d much rather just a total 3 week shutdown and that’s the end of it. This is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Danger said: One thing I REALLY want to keep an eye on in the next couple of months, does the number of cases in South America drastically fall off in the next couple months. They were hit hard during their winter months and if we see them fall off now then that would pretty much put the nail in the coffin IMO that this is incredibly seasonably dependent. Perhaps From an epidemiology POV - there are so many other variables- its probably too soon to reach a definitive conclusion on seasonality It may play a role in some places, it may have no effect in others. Different population densities, different mandates, different cultures, different leadership, different seasons Seasons in Wisconsin have a temp swing of 125 degrees between Jan -July. Temp swings in the Mediterranean climates are only 25 degrees between summer/winter. Those swings and the difference between them - have a huge impact human behaviors and the spreadability of this virus. Here in San Diego, we're outside all the time regardless of season, in WI its a completely different story Seasonality may have an impact on some portions of the population, but none on others. Old people are mostly indoors regardless of the season If you take Jan 2020 as the starting point, we haven't even been through one complete cycle yet. We're probably a couple of years ( cycles) out from fully understanding how all this works, so its best to hold off on the victory lap...in the 1st quarter of a 4 quarter game. Things we believed in Jan were replaced by things we learned in March, and updated again in September and October We've been wrong a whole lot on this novel virus - but that's OK. We learn, confirm and keep getting better - but only if you keep an open mind. I am not concerned with being consistent in what I say I am concerned with being consistent with The Truth as its revealed to me Gandhi 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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