2018 College Prospect Thread

[Broncofan]

53 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Not when you look at the trash that Denver faces to close out the season... Denver will finish season, unfortunately with 4-5 wins.

Very possible.  But here’s the good news -  4W still gives us a good shot to finish with the 3 pick, at worst a 4-5 pick.   Cle and SF aren’t going to finish anything but 1-2.   Remember SoS decides draft order tiebreaker for rd 1 if W-L record is tied and not h2h matchups.  

After looking at the schedules I think we have to lose 2 of 3 to @MIA / NYJ / @IND  and of course all of KC / @WAS / @OAK.   

Here’s the list of current 3-4W teams besides us:

 

AFC

1.  IND 3-7 - beating us gets to 4W then SoS decides the tiebreaker if we still get to 4W.Week 17 HOU at Home gives them another shot.   Their SoS is close to ours though.   Beating them probably knocks them ahead of us no matter what. 

2.  HOU 4-6 - get to host SF and then plays @IND week 17.  Their SoS is only 25 pts higher so a W likely needed if we get to 4W to ensure we pick higher. 

3.  CIN 4-6 - faces CLE now and CHI in 2 weeks   It’s close SoS wise in a tiebreaker. So a W with either is needed   

4.  MIA 4-6 - they face us at home.   Huge game as no other W likely but SoS well ahead of us. 

5.  NYJ 4-6 - they face us on road.  Same deal as MIA.  

Every team except IND is beating us handily in SoS so the key is losing to IND on road and losing at least 1 of NYJ/MIA.    No one in AFC then touches us. 

 

NFC

 

1. NYG 2-9 - as mentioned they need to win 2 games - but @ARI & WAS / DAL at home (intradivision never a lock being at home helps them a ton) it’s very possible they can get to 4W.  SoS then helps them a ton.  

2.  CHI 3-7 - they get to play CLE, SF & CIN.   Huge SoS lead.  1W and they aren’t a threat to us so long as we only win 4 games.  

3.  TAM 4-6 - no easy W but their SoS is elite.   At 4W we are safe.  

4.  ARI 4-6 - no easy W but they do play NYG.  SoS close but the 5 other teams left are all winning records except WAS 5-6 which would help them stay ahead of us.  

Really NYG winning 2 games and us only getting 1W would still leave an open scenario for the 3 pick.  No guarantees but the odds are in our favor.   Get to 5W and we tumble hard.   

Losing to OAK on road step 1.  If we do that then losing 2 of 3 to IND/MIA/NYJ the key, IND & NYJ really the big 2.  IND & ARI are the 2 teams (besides NYG ahead of us at 2-9 of course) whose SoS is really close to us.   But if we stick to 4W top 5 pick on probability of above scheduled (and 3-5 range in that top 5 not just the 5 pick) is locked in IMO. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, elliot878 said:

Not when you look at the trash that Denver faces to close out the season... Denver will finish season, unfortunately with 4-5 wins.

I wouldn't be so sure. We couldn't beat the Bengals at home and now we're going to be starting a worse QB. 

[broncofan48]

1 minute ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I wouldn't be so sure. We couldn't beat the Bengals at home and now we're going to starting a worse QB. 

Nothing this team has done in the last few months has given me confidence that another game will be won this season

[elliot878]

3 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

Nothing this team has done in the last few months has given me confidence that another game will be won this season

Me either, but fan bases of those bad teams that we're to play are saying the exact same thing.  There's a few coin toss games is all.  The good thing is a couple of the teams in front of us may not look to the QB position this year... SF and NYG.  Those picks could be up for grabs, Denver will finally be in reachable distance.

[Scoundrel]

32 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Me either, but fan bases of those bad teams that we're to play are saying the exact same thing.  There's a few coin toss games is all.  The good thing is a couple of the teams in front of us may not look to the QB position this year... SF and NYG.  Those picks could be up for grabs, Denver will finally be in reachable distance.

I'd give all my money if the Giants passed on Rosen or Darnold if they were there.

[thebestever6]

22 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I'd give all my money if the Giants passed on Rosen or Darnold if they were there.

New York is in a worst situation than us on the oline.

[Scoundrel]

5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

New York is in a worst situation than us on the oline.

I know they are but the pressure there will be to get a young QB:

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

I know they are but the pressure there will be to get a young QB:

If we really fall in love with a guy I think jumping then won't be too hard given the fact that Elway and Lynch have a relationship.  

And I think thats tough for new york they spent all their cap on defense. They need line help terribly not a good situation for a young qb.

[germ-x]

Honestly, I don’t think Paxton Lynch is the answer.  But I could see Denver being more competitive over the next couple of weeks for 2 reasons.  1. It sounds like they will dummy down the offense.  2. They’ll use Paxton’s ability to run and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was told if the 1st or 2nd option isn’t there to tuck the ball and pick up what he can.

I haven’t read this, but a friend of mine told me he heard on the radio that McCoy was calling a few plays a game that the team hadn’t worked on since training camp.  If that’s true that’s absolutely terrible on McCoys part.

That won’t happen with Lynch/Musgrave and it may really benefit this offense.  It’s going to be a simple gameplan with a wrinkle in the playbook here and there.

I expect a heavy emphasis on the running game with screens and quick passes with some plays drawn up to let Lynch drive the ball downfield.  Factor in Lynch’s above average ability to run the ball and I think early on defensive coordinators will be a bit off balance.

[Scoundrel]

20 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

If we really fall in love with a guy I think jumping then won't be too hard given the fact that Elway and Lynch have a relationship.  

And I think thats tough for new york they spent all their cap on defense. They need line help terribly not a good situation for a young qb.

If Cleveland goes QB and If San Fran loves Barkley they won't move down to us for fear of the Giants taking Barkley with two QBs gone. And the Giants see first hand what Elliott has done for their rival. 

[Scoundrel]

I think we might beat Oakland on Sunday. Seriously...

[paul-mac]

The Raiders are hardly any great shakes themselves. 

 

They just brought in John Pagano as DC, I like that move for them and he called a couple of good games when we played the Chargers during his time as DC. It won't surprise me at all if we win on Sunday but also won't surprise me if it's like 31-10 to the Raiders. Depends what Derek Carr shows up tbh. 

 

The scariest statistic right now is that the Broncos haven't won a single away game all season. 0-4. Now, our remaining road games see us travel to Oakland, Miami, Indianapolis and Washington. A half-decent NFL team goes 2-2 from that run, but there's a serious chance we get swept on the road. I think we might beat Miami purely because they're terrible and Paxton Lynch might show something in his second start but to be honest it wouldn't surprise me if the locker room has quit on Vance by that point.

 

Our home games are against the Jets and the Chiefs. The Jets we should beat at home, but I'm unconvinced because they make up for their lack of talent by just being a seriously well organised football team that knows how to play to their strengths and make things difficult for their opponents. Again, with our locker room in turmoil, I have to think they'll beat us. Kansas City is our lone remaining playoff opponent (Although I'm not ruling out the possibility they blow it if the Chargers continue to play well) and are just more talented than us in every way.

 

I think we'll win two more games: Miami and one of NYJ or Indy. That would leave us 5-11 which historically gets you a pick in the second half of the top 10.

[jolly red giant]

On 11/23/2017 at 3:35 AM, thebestever6 said:

That may be true Idk if Rosen or Darnold are that guy. I do think people say they are overrated so much they're being underrated.  

I think when evaluating you can't over look they are both 21 years old.

They may be over rated or not - but if one of them is available you have to pull the trigger on it.

[jolly red giant]

On 11/23/2017 at 3:42 AM, Broncofan said:

BPA was Chris Jones.  Mocked to us countless of times.  And even if it was a pass rusher - still OK.  We certainly don’t have 3 now.   

The mentality of who we have when drafting has to stop.  Get the BPA.   Worry about the rest later.   You say you’re all for this but your thinking in the  line above on who we have betrays the BPA principle.  That has to stop.  

NO had a LT.  Took Ramczyk 31 even though he fits LT.   Because he was overall BPA. One injury later they needed him.  Now they have 2 T and perhaps the best OL around.   And long term they are set.  

PIT needed CB and had Bud Dupree.  But still took TJ Watt.  Overall BPA.  They are so much better for it.  

The examples don’t end.  The best orgs do this time and again.  SEA, NE, PIT.   Overall BPA.  

Agree 100% - you take the BPA (in every round) and you end up with a deep roster and any holes left are easier to fill in FA.

[Scoundrel]

I think another option we have not spoke about (if someone has then I haven't seen it) is moving on from Talib and drafting Minkah Fitzpatrick.