Which teams will be the biggest risers and fallers in 2020?

[Jakuvious]

7 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Statistical feats like the Seahawks being 10-2 in one-score games require further extrapolation. I.e when you have certain players, like Russ Wilson, you can see a clearer picture. For that reason I dont expect SEA to regress, maybe one game either way. Could probably say the same for Houston with Watson.

 

I think PIT might rise actually...

I kind of agree and disagree. I mentioned in my response to Shane that QBs can sometimes override these things a bit. So Russ could just be that good or that clutch or whatever. But you don't want to bet on it, still. The reason that stat indicates regression isn't just the win total, but what it says about the Seahawks compared to the teams they played. 10-2 in one score games and 11-5 overall, means most of their losses came by double digits. The Rams, Ravens, and Cardinals beat them decisively. It also means that only one of their wins was even remotely clear. So it isn't just that they won close games disproportionately often, but this also means that they weren't good enough to win decisively against Cleveland or Cincinatti or Carolina. A failed two point conversion by Mason Rudolph kept them from OT against a Steeler team without Ben. Russ is good enough to keep winning games in the 4th quarter, but struggling to just outright beat lower tier teams even with Russ is a sign that Seattle overall might just not be that good, and Russ can only do so much.

Also, for the record, they were 5-6 in such games in 2018. Still with Wilson. 4-6 in 2017. 5-3-1 in 2016. Most teams, even with that great QB, will hang around that kind of +/- 1 or 2 range. Wilson is capable of being transcendent beyond that, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they don't regress, it'll be because the team improves on the whole and they start beating teams like the Bengals by 17, instead of by 1, not because they keep a 5-1 rate in close games.

[N4L]

21 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Statistical feats like the Seahawks being 10-2 in one-score games require further extrapolation. I.e when you have certain players, like Russ Wilson, you can see a clearer picture. For that reason I dont expect SEA to regress, maybe one game either way. Could probably say the same for Houston with Watson.

 

I think PIT might rise actually...

sometimes it sounds too hopeful when you trash your rivals, so not always a good look to predict that your rivals are going to fall off, but I agree with you on both counts.

The seahawks statistically should fall back to the mean in close games. Eventually that should happen, statistically. The problem is that their best player is a fairy hobbit wizard, who magically defies the laws of physics and statistics, but who somehow only has enough mana to cast spells in the fourth quarter. its honestly some voodoo **** what they do sometimes. It happens too many times in a row to be luck. 

so its really hard for me to say that the seahawks will 'fall back to earth' when they were supposed to be rebuilding this whole time, especially because they are cockroaches who completely whiff on their first round pick every year but always seem to have a really good offseason. Again, statistically it makes no sense, a team that whiffed/traded literally every single first round pick they have made in like 10 years should not have that much talent. 

49ers were the better team last year, had two score leads in both games, but lost in OT on a missed FG the first time (we also didn't go for the tie), and won by 2 inches at the goal line as the game expired the second time. It should not have been that close in either game. 

 

 

Pittsburgh could definitely be on the rise this year. Their QB play was horrible but they were in a lot of close games because of their defense. They did greatly benefit from takeaways on defense. Typically those do not translate year to year. Their defense does play steeler football. Their front is stout and their secondary is sound tacklers that play as a unit. They have WR talent. I am not a huge connor guy but he is above average. Vance mcdonald is actually a halfway decent player. With the right moves on offense/a healthy ben (huge questionmark tbh, I really think he is going to be forced into retirement very soon) they could win roughly the same amount of games they did last year LOL

They aren't a team that is going to fall, there will be incremental rise because their offense probably wont be as bad as it was late in the year, but I don't see them making a huge jump. They aren't going to blow out bad teams, nor will they get blown out by really good teams. One of those teams that's solid but not special, that could win a lot if things bounce their way but more than likely they are 1-2 games above 500 or 500 itself. 

[N4L]

15 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I kind of agree and disagree. I mentioned in my response to Shane that QBs can sometimes override these things a bit. So Russ could just be that good or that clutch or whatever. But you don't want to bet on it, still. The reason that stat indicates regression isn't just the win total, but what it says about the Seahawks compared to the teams they played. 10-2 in one score games and 11-5 overall, means most of their losses came by double digits. The Rams, Ravens, and Cardinals beat them decisively. It also means that only one of their wins was even remotely clear. So it isn't just that they won close games disproportionately often, but this also means that they weren't good enough to win decisively against Cleveland or Cincinatti or Carolina. A failed two point conversion by Mason Rudolph kept them from OT against a Steeler team without Ben. Russ is good enough to keep winning games in the 4th quarter, but struggling to just outright beat lower tier teams even with Russ is a sign that Seattle overall might just not be that good, and Russ can only do so much.

Also, for the record, they were 5-6 in such games in 2018. Still with Wilson. 4-6 in 2017. 5-3-1 in 2016. Most teams, even with that great QB, will hang around that kind of +/- 1 or 2 range. Wilson is capable of being transcendent beyond that, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they don't regress, it'll be because the team improves on the whole and they start beating teams like the Bengals by 17, instead of by 1, not because they keep a 5-1 rate in close games.

Teams missed 3 game winning FGs as the clock was expiring/in overtime for the win. Three! that's a lot in 16 games. 

Without looking it up, it was Cincinnati week 1, rams on Thursday night football, and 49ers on MNF in week 10. 

they were losing the NO game by 21 points with like 1m left in the game. They scored a td, got the onside, scored another TD as time expired to lose by 6 and technically lose by one score. That game was not close at any point

They were down 21 to tampa in the second half and pulled some crazy stunts in an overtime thriller. That's a game that they should have lost 75% of the time

Eagles had like 8-9 players get hurt in that game and still were in it at the end. Seahawks didn't pull away to win by 8 until very very late. That was one of the ugliest games of NFL football I have ever seen. wasn't good defensive play, but just crap sloppy play. it was the version of the eagles that lost to the dolphins but somehow still made the playoffs.

Pittsburgh had Ben tear his UCL. Seahawks got bailed out on THE ONLY PI CALL TO BE OVERTURNED BUT SOMEHOW STILL THE WRONG CALL. It was ticky tacky nonsense that should not have been overturned. made no sense but completely bailed them out. 

That's 7 games where the seahawks got extremely fortunate to say the least. The problem is, it happens every year with them. 

 

Let me say it again. They almost/should have lost to Cincinnati, a two win team that got blown out by everyone else in the NFL!

Edited April 14, 2020 by N4L

[Bearerofnews]

Risers: Cardinals (+5), Dolphins (+4), Tampa (+4), Atlanta (+7), Chargers (+9)

 

Fallers: Chiefs (-3), NE (-3), Balt (-5), GB (-3)

[TedLavie]

Risers: Bucs/Colts (I expect TB12 and Rivers to push those teams in playoff contention), Broncos (they were better than their early record last year, Chubb is coming back and Bouye is coming in), Rams (I think they jump back into playoff contention next year), Eagles (they should get healthier and added a #1 CB)

Fallers: Pats (overall roster is just not that good tbh besides the back 7), Packers (won a lot of close games last year and, if my memory serves me right, stayed relatively healthy which is hard to replicate), Texans (lots of close games last year, lost their #1 WR), teams with new coaching staff (the COVID situation may hurt teams that changed their whole coaching staff if OTAs and training camps are cancelled/shortened)

[notthatbluestuff]

On 4/12/2020 at 10:03 PM, Heinz D. said:

I guess my beef is with the others at the beginning of the thread, and not you. 

Looks like we all know something that you don’t. 

[BroncoSojia]

6 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Risers: Cardinals (+5), Dolphins (+4), Tampa (+4), Atlanta (+7), Chargers (+9)

 

Fallers: Chiefs (-3), NE (-3), Balt (-5), GB (-3)

.....You have the Chargers winning 14 games?

[MagicMT]

3 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

.....You have the Chargers winning 14 games?

Tyrod Taylor is leading them to 14-2 and the Superbowl! Come on man, haven't you seen his agg % throws? Championship baby

[Oregon Ducks]

14 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

.....You have the Chargers winning 14 games?

Yeah, why not? Take off those donkey glasses and you would see why.

[notthatbluestuff]

1 minute ago, Oregon Ducks said:

Yeah, why not? Take off those donkey glasses and you would see why.

Agreed, and a 9-7 Chiefs season is generous for those bums. 

[-Hope-]

you fools, predicting the titans to rise or fall. everyone knows we're going 9-7 for the fifth consecutive year. it's ordained by the gods.

[Ray Reed]

I think the Broncos win 10 games this year, so they'd be my risers.

The Ravens obviously won't go 14-2 again, but I think that's pretty apparent, so for my faller I'd say the Saints. I think they'll still be a good team but with that division getting better I could see them topping out at 10-6.

[Art_Vandalay]

Biggest Riser: The players really started to ball out for Brian Flores toward the end of the season. They win the AFCE.

Biggest Faller: BoB's plan of getting Deshaun killed will come to fruition early in the season. Texans 2-14.

[Bearerofnews]

8 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

.....You have the Chargers winning 14 games?

I think so. Not sure my confidence level yet. But they lost 9 games by 1 score and that is by having key turnovers, penalties or tds called back or dropped in these games. So they were 1 score games, decided by almost singular isolated plays and not duration of game flow. Obviously that was the 2019 blueprint.. no guarantee the positives carry over, just like no guarantees the negatives carry over. 

2019 was a weird year for the Chargers.... even by Chargers standard... which is bizzaro world to begin with.

Or maybe im just a relentless homer.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Bearerofnews

[BleedTheClock]

1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

I think so. Not sure my confidence level yet. But they lost 9 games by 1 score and that is by having key turnovers, penalties or tds called back or dropped in these games. So they were 1 score games, decided by almost singular isolated plays and not duration of game flow. Obviously that was the 2019 blueprint.. no guarantee the positives carry over, just like no guarantees the negatives carry over. 

2019 was a weird year for the Chargers.... even by Chargers standard... which is bizzaro world to begin with.

Or maybe im just a relentless homer.

The latter.