Which *NEW* Head Coach will have the biggest impact on their new team?

[HTTRDynasty]

That post doesn’t even deserve a response. Happy Easter. 

[Calvert28]

Homerism kept me from picking Rivera. He will have a much easier job whipping the Redskins into shape and getting them a decent record then MM will be able to get the Cowboys deep into the playoffs this year. 

[KingOfNewYork]

Rivers then McCarthy. 

Judge will be solid IMO as well. 

Stefanski I'm unsure of as the Browns team needs better structure organizationally. 

I think Rhule is overrated, college coaches don't transition well to the pros.

[SalvadorsDeli]

Depending on how long/how disruptive the COVID-19 lockdown continues to be, I think the rookie head coaches are likely to be the ones that suffer the most in terms of how it'll impact their ability to re-orient their teams. Lack of OTA's/maybe shortened training camps just gives you less time to imprint a new identity/approach/system on a roster. They're going to have to learn how to run as they are learning to walk. 

So by default I think Rivera and McCarthy will have bigger Year 1 impacts potentially - they face the same logisistical barriers the rookie HC's face in terms of not having as much time to implement a new system, but the fact that they've been in this seat before will likely make the transition a bit faster and easier. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[HoboRocket]

McCarthy is overrated simply by virtue of where the team was. Yes, they greatly disappointed last year, but if he gets them a solid record, that's not really a change from a typical Jason Garrett football team. Heck, the Cowboys have had at least a .500 record 8 of the last 10 years. Unless McCarthy gets them a Super Bowl, he's not having a huge (positive) impact on the team. So he SHOULD NOT be leading the poll unless you guys think that he'll make this Cowboys team go out in a blaze of glory and the likes of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La'el Collins, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and DeMarcus Lawrence will be on another team next year. This roster still has really good continuity when it comes to their best players, and not much is really going to change, in all likelihood.

McCarthy is a high-floor retread, not an upside swing for the fences. Garrett was a high-floor HC. Not saying McCarthy will do worse than Garrett, and it's actually very likely that he's better than Garrett. Don't think it'll be much better, though, just because there's realistically not a lot of room for being much better.

 

Rivera has an interesting opportunity. He's working with a young, interesting football team. Yes, people will probably come raging at me because of the Skins' record last season, but they're actually talented when it comes to their youth. You have a 2nd-year QB who was exactly what I expected him to be. Guys, we knew Haskins would take time going into the draft. The kid ONLY PLAYED one year of college football, and it was in a masterful offensive system at Ohio State with strong weapons. You don't draft a Dwayne Haskins thinking he's going to be an impact starter as a rookie, and if you thought that, then you really need to re-evaluate your own evaluations of QBs. Giving up on Haskins is like giving up on Josh Allen after his rookie season. They had low lows, yes, but the highs were also very enticing. Haskins was a RAW prospect; extremely young STILL, and his ceiling is really nice. He doesn't have a ton of mobility, but if you watch last season, that was one of the things that he consciously worked on and improved with his game as the season progressed. He still needs to learn game prep, how to manage and handle a locker room, and continue to adapt to game speed of the NFL. He DID show improvement as the year carried on, and literally everything that I liked about him as a prospect is still there. He has the size and toughness to handle hits and he has all the arm talent in the world. I think if he continues on his current path, he projects very favorably to being a Matt Stafford-type QB. 

They added an infusion of young talent to their skill positions last year. They had 3 rookie receivers, and while @HTTRDynasty overrated Sims with misleading stat tables on his posts (Sims literally had the least receiving yards out of anyone on those PFF tables, and he wasn't at the top in receptions, either), he was still a serviceable slot WR with flashes of splash play ability. Kelvin Harmon was hyped as a first-rounder and true X receiver in the NFL through the majority of the pre-draft process, and he proved to be a steal at his draft slot in - what - the sixth round? He can be a serviceable starting WR in the NFL, IMO. Once again, those two are serviceable. You can upgrade them, for sure, and ideally, they'd be part of a rotation or quality depth pieces, but they're not going to embarrass themselves in a vacuum as NFL starting WRs. Scary Terry McLaurin is a very good NFL starting WR (and my 2nd-favorite WR pre-draft last year), but I'm not positive he's cemented himself as a true #1 just yet. I think he needs another year of beating double coverage and putting up quality production before he can be safely relied upon to be the top dog in a strong offense. But they have those three second-year WRs, they added Bryce Love last year - who missed the season, but should be healthy anytime now - they added Montez Sweat, they have Rueben Foster, a very good young linebacker who missed the season... They aren't lacking for young talent. I DO think they need to add some more, but this is a team that just died with a toxic culture, distractions, frustration with the front office, and a lack of proven alphas. However, a lot of these young guys should take steps forward, and they're really going to add some sort of dynamic talent to the team through the draft without losing anyone of note besides Quinton Dunbar. They also are now running a 4-3, so they have an extra pro-bowl caliber interior rusher and an extra pro-bowl caliber edge rusher to flip for more picks, if they so choose. They have a very weak secondary, in general, and their offensive line is lackluster, but their defensive line could be scary-good and they have some talent at the skill positions. I think their ceiling this year is hampered by scheme changes and personnel changes, but long-term, this is one of the most promising teams in the league. 

I'm not sure if I trust Ron to be more than a good head coach, though, so I think this is a team that should improve noticeably this year, and then take another step next - but that might be where it remains, in the 7-10 win range as one of those teams that will be competing for a playoff spot in mid-to-late December every year, but not really one of those teams that will make waves unless Ron can be an innovative head coach. He hasn't been much of an innovator to this point in the NFL, though. He's more of a strong culture guy who can manage talent and TYPICALLY navigate through tough territory and keep a team from going off the rails. He's not a schematic genius on either offense or defense, though, and unless Scott Turner can really step up, I'm not sure that he's one, either, which you usually need in order to be a true contender. 

 

Matt Rhule fits the bill. I think he could make a change. Really the only question here is if he's able to make the leap from the NCAA to the NFL. He's a smart coach who can manage players and gain the respect of the locker room. His forte, to this point, has been overhauling teams and flipping them from zero to hero. He also has someone who is considered a schematic genius on his staff in Joe Brady, who people are already talking about as a very strong head coaching candidate for next year (imagine the worst team in the NFL getting Brady as their new HC, and Trevor Lawrence as their QB with the #1 overall pick... yikes). They have a very dynamic cast of young players on offense. Christian McCaffrey is an elite RB. DJ Moore is a true #1 WR in the NFL. Curtis Samuel is an extremely enticing player as a weapon, with his running ability, route-running, and return skills. We saw flashes from him as a wingback when Cam was healthy in the Norv Turner offense, and I think Brady is a definite upgrade over Turner. They added Robby Anderson as a really nice option on the perimeter, where I think he'll feast as a secondary target. In addition to Anderson, they brought in Pharoh Cooper, who has flashed intriguing ability as a slot WR, but really primarily comes in as an All-Pro returner who was good for both the Rams and Cardinals, but has dealt with some injuries. They're also in position to add some more talent at WR in a deep draft class.

On the offensive line, they have three interesting tackles in Russell Okung, who should definitely be a quality starter at LT, Greg Little, and Taylor Moton. My guess is that Little moves to guard to replace Trai Turner, though Moton has experience at guard from college (he was LT, RT, LG, and RG at Western Michigan at various points of his career) and I think he could be very, very good playing on the interior. They also have a great tandem of young edge rushers in Brian Burns and Christian Miller. Neither has the ideal size to hold up in the ground game, but both are highly productive edge rushers and are a bit better against the run than their size would indicate. This team has plenty of young talent, some nice veteran talent, and I think Rhule has a shot at having the biggest impact for this team, as there's already been plenty of personnel change (the loss of Newton, Kuechly, Bradberry, Addison, etc), I trust the staff he's put together, he has a nice track record but brings upside, and the team's not lacking in talent.

 

Kevin Stefanski is just kind of there, for me. I haven't really bought into him a whole lot. The Vikings offense has been mixed with him on the staff, very good at times and downright predictable at others. I think he's overrated as an offensive mind and I'm not sure that he's as strong of a culture guy as ANY of the other hires this off-season. This Browns team was a complete train wreck last year, and despite that, the talent-level on their roster is still being overrated. They had a very good linebacker corps and a very good OL, once upon a time. Since then, every single one of their studly-or-at-least-young-and-talented linebackers in Christian Kirksey, Joe Schobert, Jamie Collins, Mychal Kendricks, and Genard Avery have moved on to other teams. Joe Thomas retired, and they haven't replaced him. Kevin Zeitler was traded. In return, they got Olivier Vernon, who was a non-factor and is one of the most overrated players in the NFL. They lack any real pass rush outside of Myles Garrett, who is in trouble with the league. MAYBE Adrian Clayborn can help them there, but he's a 31-year-old who's always been more of a third-or-fourth pass rusher who's most famous for getting half of the sacks in his best season from one game. Larry Ogunjobi is a good player but he's more of a tub-of-goo type. Denzel Ward is a truly talented corner, and Greedy Williams has promise but people still think he's better than he is, just like they did last year before the draft. Their safeties are nice, they added Andrew Sendejo and Karl Joseph, but I think overall Joseph is a lateral move from Damarious Randall. Sendejo brings great energy and attitude, but he's not a great player by any means. They DID add Jack Conklin, who I think is a quality signing overall. He had an elite rookie season in 2016, a meh 2017, a BAD 2018, and a good 2019. Not sure which Conklin the Browns are getting (maybe I shouldn't expect it to be the good one, since it's the Browns) but he should be an upgrade over Chris Hubbard.

Baker Mayfield is a conundrum at QB. He's red-hot or he's red-not. The RB room is elite at the moment, which is a a good sign for Stefanski. The WR corps is a who's who of divas, but that's fine. Some attitude is fine as long as it's kept under control. It wasn't last year, and ultimately, it hurt the team, but maybe Stefanski can help keep the team on track. Once again, I'm not sure that he has a track record as a great manager of talent, and the Cleveland locker room is the most volatile in the NFL when it comes to the sheer number and caliber of players that need to be managed. I mean, this isn't a situation where you have a bunch of depth guys and projects that are being put into a locker room, and if they don't pan out, they can get cut. This is a situation where the stars of your team, the best players, the ones that should be your biggest leaders, are the ones that Greg Stefanski needs to keep a close eye on. 

Ultimately, the Browns I think hit fairly close to their cap last year despite the distractions. They could win three more games this year if everything breaks right, which isn't a lot of change to me - but with context, it'll mean the world to Cleveland. I think this team could be 4-12 or 10-6, depending on how things go. Stefanski just wasn't the right hire to me. 

 

Finally, there's Joe Judge. He's my pick here. Initially, when he was hired, I was like "What the heck!?" I had NO IDEA who he really was. As I've dug down into it, though, I've liked this hire more and more. Judge is an elite character coach. He's not really a huge X's and O's guy, but he's fantastic at managing talent and forging relationships with players. He has a very good record as New England's special teams coach and was one of the league's premier coaches in that regard, along with John Harbaugh, Bones Fassel, Sean Payton (who co-manages the Saints' special teams with Mike Westhoff) and Dave Toub. He's great with preparedness and getting players up to speed. As a special teams coach for a team like New England, he has some advantages that other coaches DON'T have. Special teams coaches need to be able to create and maintain relationships very quickly, because most NFL teams don't have set special teams rosters and a lot of the players that are playing special teams are the ones that are cut and added every week. Aside from your kicker, punter, long snapper, your returners, and your holders, pretty much everyone else is interchangeable. And on some teams, the returners are interchangeable. That's only 4 to 7 players that a ST coordinator can count on having and working with every week, when there are four main phases of special teams (your punt coverage team, your punt return team, your kick coverage team, and your kick return team). Each of these four phases requires 11 men on the field, and each one has different positions, similar to an offense or a defense. That's 44 spots that someone like Judge is expected to fill every week, dealing with injuries and roster changes. One week, he may need to be able to approach a back-up runningback and say "Hey, how do you feel about covering kicks?" Another week he may need to do the same thing with a starting linebacker when that runningback goes down with an injury. On top of this, he needs to make sure that everyone is prepared and assignment sound.

New England has one of the fastest-shifting rosters in the NFL. They add and subtract their depth guys faster than I add and subtract Oreos from my kitchen pantry (and that's fast). Despite all this, they've consistently been among the best in the league in the their special teams. Judge has received glowing reviews, not just from the Greatest Coach of All Time, but also from the players that have played under him and fellow coaches. He's great on gaining the trust and respect of players and helping them prepare for game days. And when you listen to him talk... he's a great figure to have in the New York media market. I think he'll handle it very well. He's a very professional person.

To add to this, he's been around and a part of the Patriots culture for years. While that hasn't meant a lot to this point, it's also not the death knell that it's been made out to be. Brian Flores finished like third in coach of the year voting because he took the worst roster in the NFL and managed to make them competitive down the stretch. He's not a quitter, and he made Miami an attractive destination for FAs. The players respect him a lot. Bill O'Brien, as much of an idiot as he is as the worst GM in NFL history and an egomaniac, is an HC that went to the playoffs multiple times with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden, TJ Yates, Brock Osweiler, and Tom Savage as his QBs, ZERO talent on the offensive line aside from an aging Duane Brown, and huge weaknesses overall at the skill positions. I mean, he had JJ Watt, Nuk, and that's it for his first three years as a Head Coach. He's had a losing record ONCE, and that's a year where Deshaun Watson, a rookie, went down with an injury, then Tom Savage went down with an injury TWICE that season, and he was forced to play with TJ Yates and Taylor Heinicke as his QBs. And literally every year BEFORE that he'd had a winning record with QB situations that were similar. So yes, BOB is an idiot poopoohead, the worst general manager of all time, some expletives that I can't post because they'd be filtered and I'd be banned but you know what they are, and an all-around poor human being, but he's also kept a team that has Matt Schaub as its all-time leading passer in contention for a playoff spot despite a lot of weak rosters. 

Anyways, Judge has also put together a strong coaching staff that I really like. Seriously, his only "weakness" is that he's not the greatest schematic mind as he's never been an OC or DC, but none of the hires this off-season were great schematic minds, besides McCarthy, who was a great schematic mind when he was first hired by the Packers when dinosaurs roamed the earth, but got fired by the Packers for being a BAD schematic mind and failing to adapt. The game is always shifting, so head coaches that have the ability to adapt, manage a locker room, assemble a strong staff, and build a strong culture are typically the ones that have staying power in the NFL. Those are the guys like your Bill Belichicks, your John Harbaughs, and your Ron Riveras. Yes, BB is a defensive genius but he's also not been a playcaller most of the time. Over the course of the Patriots' 5-year run that netted them 3 rings and 4 Super Bowl Appearances, it's been Matt Patricia, Brian Flores, and Steve - not Bill - Belichick calling the shots on defense. And yeah, Rivera was a defensive-minded coach, too, but Steve Wilks was the on calling the shots when the Panthers were at their best. Even with Andy Reid, he's handed over the reins a lot of times during his career. So being an excellent OC or DC as a head coach is overrated. Yes, it certainly helps, but it's not nearly as important as the ability to run a team. I really think Joe Judge has that ability.

The Giants also have some talent on their roster. I have no idea what the defense is going to look like, but Jabrill Peppers has been decent at safety. They have a strong pair of guards in Will Hernandez and Kevin Zeitler. Nate Solder is overpaid, but he's not awful, just mediocre; ideally, he'd shift to right tackle after the Giants draft an LT later this month. They could stand to draft a couple OL, really, and luckily, this class is super deep there. They have Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate at WR, which are two #2 caliber WRs. They also have Darius Slayton, and extremely athletic WR who looked very promising last year after flashing plenty of times at Auburn, torching secondaries like Alabama, LSU, and Georgia at times. He had major consistency issues in college, but he's promising, at the very least, after having some WR1 games for the Giants. Probably a good #3. This class is also very deep at WR, so they could add some more talent there. Markus Golden is a quality edge rusher, but overall, this defense is a jumbled mess and they're changing everything up. We'll see how it goes, but there's no way to reliably project how good or bad that unit will be. What I do know is this: the team as a whole should improve greatly with unification and a vision. The offense should take several steps forward with Jason Garrett as the OC and improvement to the roster. I could see this Giants team surprising and finishing with 8 or 9 wins this year, and being much better long-term. 

Overall, Judge is my vote for the most impactful coaching hire this off-season. The record may not show it right now, but this team will be night-and-day in comparison to what it's been since the last couple years of the Coughlin era. I think this young head coach from Philly may just have some real staying power in this league.

[HoboRocket]

Sorry for writing a novel, guys.

[notthatbluestuff]

32 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

Sorry for writing a novel, guys.

A valuable and interesting read. Thanks for it. 

[Shanedorf]

40 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

McCarthy is overrated simply by virtue of where the team was. Yes, they greatly disappointed last year, but if he gets them a solid record, that's not really a change from a typical Jason Garrett football team. Heck, the Cowboys have had at least a .500 record 8 of the last 10 years. Unless McCarthy gets them a Super Bowl, he's not having a huge (positive) impact on the team. So he SHOULD NOT be leading the poll unless you guys think that he'll make this Cowboys team go out in a blaze of glory and the likes of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La'el Collins, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and DeMarcus Lawrence will be on another team next year. This roster still has really good continuity when it comes to their best players, and not much is really going to change, in all likelihood.

McCarthy is a high-floor retread, not an upside swing for the fences. Garrett was a high-floor HC. Not saying McCarthy will do worse than Garrett, and it's actually very likely that he's better than Garrett. Don't think it'll be much better, though, just because there's realistically not a lot of room for being much better.

Thx for the full write-up and I'll offer my views on the MM hire.
Garrett couldn't get his team past the MM Packers despite being at home and having a very talented team. On 2 separate occasions, the Garrett cowboys got beat in Jerry World by the MM Packers in the divisional round. That made an impression on Jerry Jones, especially if you look at some of the coaching decisions. 

Another seminal game was in 2013, when the Rodgers-less Packers visited the cowboys and were down 26-3 at halftime. But McCarthy's team lead by Matt freaking Flynn mounted a furious comeback and beat the Garrett's 37-36
(with Aikman on TV bellyaching about the coaching decisions all afternoon )
That too left an impression on Jerruh. The cowboys never even made it past the divisional round under Garrett, so in terms of track record MM represents an upgrade.

Not so much on the X's and O's side of the coin, but he's more of a leader, CEO- type than The Clapper and a leader of men
Your POV on McCarthy is certainly shared by many fans, but if you listen to the GMs and team Presidents - they hold McCarthy in much higher regard.

Jerruh feels he has the talent assembled and the missing piece is a coach who can get it out of them. We'll see what happens soon enough, but MM will deliver results superior to what The Clapper was capable of delivering -  that's why he got the job.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Shanedorf

[MD4L]

I’m still shocked Joe Judge got the Giants gig. Obviously the experience working special teams, and the Belichick/Saban references are outstanding, but based on his job as the Patriots WR coach, they didn’t necessarily have respectable production. The receivers for the Patriots was by far the least productive group on their roster, and they invested significant capital (1st on Harry, 2nd on Sanu) to shore up these problems.

[MD4L]

I’ll take Rivera out of this group strictly based on previous accomplishments. His work is cut out for him based on the Redskins inability to field a consistent winner. All those teams sans Cleveland have put together consistently solid seasons at some point in the last decade.

[Uncle Buck]

I voted for Mike McCarthy.  I think he will be able to make some big changes, if only because a change in head coaches was so long overdue.  He is also a good coach.  He seems to be underrated on this board because of how things ended in Green Bay.  My opinion is that it was a situation that happens to many long-time coaches in that his system just got stale after so many years and it was just time for a change in Green Bay.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Uncle Buck

[Ripline]

Agree with MM choice. He's a good coach that got stale in GB. Dallas has a whole different talent set.

However, I still hope they fall on their face!!!  Dallas hater regards!! 

[HTTRDynasty]

3 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

They added an infusion of young talent to their skill positions last year. They had 3 rookie receivers, and while @HTTRDynasty overrated Sims with misleading stat tables on his posts (Sims literally had the least receiving yards out of anyone on those PFF tables, and he wasn't at the top in receptions, either), he was still a serviceable slot WR with flashes of splash play ability.

Misleading?  He's off by 22 yards or less (mostly around 11 yards) from everyone in that first table (not named AJ Brown) comparing him to other rookies.  Are you saying 22 yards should have more weight than a TD?  He also has the 2nd most receptions in that table.

The second table?  Sure.  Though he didn't "literally" have the least amount of yards in that table either.  Kupp did.

Unless you're talking about for the full season, which misses the point, as Sims didn't start playing greater than 50% of the offensive snaps until Week 13.  Which is another indictment on the previous staff - Gruden had an unhealthy obsession with Trey Quinn, even though it was clear Sims was the better player.

 

I agree with most of the rest of your post about the Redskins though.  Good breakdown.

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by HTTRDynasty

[SalvadorsDeli]

1 hour ago, MD4L said:

I’m still shocked Joe Judge got the Giants gig. Obviously the experience working special teams, and the Belichick/Saban references are outstanding, but based on his job as the Patriots WR coach, they didn’t necessarily have respectable production. The receivers for the Patriots was by far the least productive group on their roster, and they invested significant capital (1st on Harry, 2nd on Sanu) to shore up these problems.

My guess is that he became the WR coach for the same reason John Harbaugh randomly had one year as a secondary coach with Philly before getting the Ravens job - it's hard for special teams coaches to get head coaching jobs/interviews so giving the guy a positional staff role on offense or defense was basically Belichek doing him a favor to beef up his resume like Reid did with Harbaugh.

Maybe Judge works maybe he doesn't but I don't think his tenure at WR coach is going to matter one way or another; it's the leadership qualities that are mostly borne out through his special teams work that he's being hired on. 

[Drained]

13 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

Homerism kept me from picking Rivera. He will have a much easier job whipping the Redskins into shape and getting them a decent record then MM will be able to get the Cowboys deep into the playoffs this year. 

Why do you think that?

I think McCarthy plays a lot to the Cowboys strengths (aside from the run game, I wouldnt be surprised if Zeke didnt have a great year in 2020) and the Cowboys are deserving of a deep playoff run - roster wise at least.