2020 Offense Outlook

[ReadyToThump]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I'm only nervous because of health.  He's faced Mack and Hunter already, so there will be no surprises from them.  And he practiced against Flowers.

That's what makes me happiest about him, his familiarity with the division.

He won't be Bulaga, that is for sure.  But he should be capable if healthy.

You're right about the health and familiarity. I'm curious as to how he fared against those guys. 

[dll2000]

On 6/16/2020 at 9:06 PM, deathstar said:

Here’s an interesting paper I found:

They find that size, broad jump, and career yards are the best predictors of NFL career score for tight ends. While I am a fan of the Deguara pick and see his comp more as Charles Clay, this paper isn’t so optimistic given his weight.

Lets take best TE in NFL - George Kittle and see how he fares in some of leading indicators of this study.

40 = 4.52.  Crushed it.

Broad jump = 132".  Crushed it.

Shuttle = 4.52.  Here he failed bad as indicator is 4.14.

College career yards = 737 below mark of 797, but not far off.

College career receptions = 48 against mark of 65.  

[MrBobGray]

23 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I disagree with that. That's about the only part of his game that really struck me as exceptional

That's interesting to me.  I'll have to go back and do a rewatch at some point here, but I definitely have it as a note that at times he gets lost if he doesn't have a man to block as soon as he moves to the second level.  Granted, these are less notes, and more the scribblings of a madman on legal edibles, so uh, it wouldn't shock me to find out I was wrong.  Did you find any film on him other than the four or five that are on youtube?

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, MrBobGray said:

That's interesting to me.  I'll have to go back and do a rewatch at some point here, but I definitely have it as a note that at times he gets lost if he doesn't have a man to block as soon as he moves to the second level.  Granted, these are less notes, and more the scribblings of a madman on legal edibles, so uh, it wouldn't shock me to find out I was wrong.  Did you find any film on him other than the four or five that are on youtube?

Nope, pretty much just the YouTube clips. I want to say it was the UCF one that impressed me.

[squire12]

On 6/17/2020 at 1:18 PM, MrBobGray said:

I mean, Deguara isn't a great blocker.  He gives great effort, but he's neither punishingly physical nor is he an elite technican.  He very rarely drives his man anywhere, usually more of a wall off guy whose feet stop on impact.  Doesn't always have a great feel for how to find his man on zone plays either, feel like I see him look lost as he heads to the second level more than I'd like.

He looks like what he is: a star high school WR who moved to TE to help his college team.  He's willing to do anything you ask him too, but he needs a lot of work to be a starting TE as a blocker.  Buuuut so did Tonyan, and he's noticeably improved there; he credited Lewis for being huge there, and Deguara now gets a year to work with him as well.  The receiving talent is obvious; not a lot of FB body types that are comfortable split wide like Deguara.  But if he's really going to make this thing work, he needs to really polish his blocking game and know the offense well enough that they could put him anywhere to divine coverages or take advantage of a LB who can't cover.  Basically, you're looking for the bastard lovechild of John Kuhn and Jason WItten.

 

23 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I disagree with that. That's about the only part of his game that really struck me as exceptional

 

11 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

That's interesting to me.  I'll have to go back and do a rewatch at some point here, but I definitely have it as a note that at times he gets lost if he doesn't have a man to block as soon as he moves to the second level.  Granted, these are less notes, and more the scribblings of a madman on legal edibles, so uh, it wouldn't shock me to find out I was wrong.  Did you find any film on him other than the four or five that are on youtube?

 

9 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Nope, pretty much just the YouTube clips. I want to say it was the UCF one that impressed me.

What the hell is this, some sort of civilized discussion and discourse?

Dang pandemic turning things into a bunch of Nancy-boys 

[craig]

On 6/16/2020 at 9:06 PM, deathstar said:

Here’s an interesting paper I found:

They find that size, broad jump, and career yards are the best predictors of NFL career score for tight ends. While I am a fan of the Deguara pick and see his comp more as Charles Clay, this paper isn’t so optimistic given his weight.

Note: that is a 2014 paper, and uses players drafted from 1999-2013 for analyzing draft patterns, and 1999-2010 for actual NFL performance.  

Using most of the filters in the paper, Deguard actually tends to score pretty well with his measurables.  

Draft:  7 pounds short and 0.01 second 40-time short of being in the most highly rated group.  (In terms of being draft early).

Games started filter (figure 3):  He's 2 pounds short of the being in the highest of the games-started boxes.  

Football is football, so not sure 15-year-old data isn't pretty relevant.  But I'm not sure the paper would have a big problem with a guy taken at end of round 3.  

 

[wgbeethree]

4 hours ago, ReadyToThump said:

You're right about the health and familiarity. I'm curious as to how he fared against those guys. 

Looked when we signed him. Don't think Mack had a sack against Detroit last year and you could maybe put him down for a half sack against Griffen last. I don't quite recall but I think Detroit oddly put a TE man up on him for all his sacks.  IIRC, Wagner wasn't beaten heads up but there was one sack where Wagner looked inside first and ended up blocking nobody and the TE got abused for the sack. Pretty sure goggling "Everson Griffen sacks 2019" will get you a good highlight reel to watch.

[Joe]

3 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

Looked when we signed him. Don't think Mack had a sack against Detroit last year and you could maybe put him down for a half sack against Griffen last. I don't quite recall but I think Detroit oddly put a TE man up on him for all his sacks.  IIRC, Wagner wasn't beaten heads up but there was one sack where Wagner looked inside first and ended up blocking nobody and the TE got abused for the sack. Pretty sure goggling "Everson Griffen sacks 2019" will get you a good highlight reel to watch.

I think we have to look to PFF to understand where Rick Wagner really is. He has a horrible year last year, but has measured comparably to Bulaga in each of the previous 3-4 seasons. In fact, throw out the worst PFF score for each of the two over the last 4-5 years and they're quite comparable...

[Shanedorf]

From The Athletic & Football Outsiders
 

The Packers ranked fourth in rushing efficiency last season, and Aaron Jones emerged as one of the best all-around backs in the NFL.

"The Packers used fullback Danny Vitale in 21 personnel last season, but they didn’t have success on those runs. Among the 11 teams that ran the ball at least 50 times out of 21 personnel, the Packers ranked last in EPA per rush. Deguara is expected to fill fullback duties this season.

Football Outsiders uses a power metric to measure how teams perform in short yardage situations. This was one area where the Packers struggled, ranking 27th. They’ll hope that the 247-pound Dillon can help. However, the Packers were the best red-zone rushing team in the NFL.
 

Bottom line: The Packers return four of five starters on their offensive line, it’ll be the players’ second year in this scheme, and Jones has superstar talent. Green Bay has the pieces to once again be one of the most efficient rushing teams in the league."

Edited June 20, 2020 by Shanedorf

[MaximusGluteus]

On 6/20/2020 at 5:22 PM, Shanedorf said:

The Packers used fullback Danny Vitale in 21 personnel last season, but they didn’t have success on those runs. Among the 11 teams that ran the ball at least 50 times out of 21 personnel, the Packers ranked last in EPA per rush.

I'm so glad Vitale is gone.

[Shanedorf]

 

[Kepler]

On 6/30/2020 at 7:15 PM, Shanedorf said:

 

"The dominate blocking of..."

"dominate"

DOMINANT FFS

[Beast]

On 6/17/2020 at 2:18 PM, MrBobGray said:

I mean, Deguara isn't a great blocker.  He gives great effort, but he's neither punishingly physical nor is he an elite technican.  He very rarely drives his man anywhere, usually more of a wall off guy whose feet stop on impact.  Doesn't always have a great feel for how to find his man on zone plays either, feel like I see him look lost as he heads to the second level more than I'd like.

[Edited to shorten]

Basically, you're looking for the bastard lovechild of John Kuhn and Jason WItten.

Deguara college blocking wasn't great but neither that's true for like 95+% of college TEs today, unless maybe they went to Iowa. Effort and will to block and learn to improve their blocking is what's important.

Also, I was surprised how much better Sternberger looked as a rookie blocker than his college days. And I'd say Deguara looked better than Sternberger their last years in college.

As for route running, I think his best strengths are his brain to read the coverage around him so he knows how to adjust, which makes him pretty good in zone and his versatility because he's not great at any one thing, but he knows how to make it harder for the defender. If he can articulate in share his knowledge, he'd probably make one hell of a coach someday. But his football intelligence, will and verstility seem like his strengths over any one physical asset.

[Beast]

On 6/18/2020 at 10:17 AM, vegas492 said:

I'm only nervous because of health.  He's faced Mack and Hunter already, so there will be no surprises from them.  And he practiced against Flowers.

That's what makes me happiest about him, his familiarity with the division.

He won't be Bulaga, that is for sure.  But he should be capable if healthy.

But familiar is a double edged sword, as he's familiar with them, but they're also familiar with him.

Also, I'm sure the edge rusher are going to be happy the Bak/Bulaga B team almost impenetrable wall has been partly taken down.

[Beast]

On 6/18/2020 at 12:58 PM, dll2000 said:

Lets take best TE in NFL - George Kittle and see how he fares in some of leading indicators of this study.

40 = 4.52.  Crushed it.

Broad jump = 132".  Crushed it.

Shuttle = 4.52.  Here he failed bad as indicator is 4.14.

College career yards = 737 below mark of 797, but not far off.

College career receptions = 48 against mark of 65.  

Kittle might be a bit of an exception in the passing stats, as he (like the Lions top TE selection), was largely used as blocker TE in Iowa college system. So I wouldn't hold those lower receiving numbers that much against him, of course, I was also screaming to draft Little and surprised he made it to the 4th round and shocked he made it to the 5 round, picked right after Butt.

Packers selected Kevin King, Josh Jones, Montravius Adams, Vince Bigel and Jamaal Williams over Kittle.

Damn, that draft could have been TJ Watt, Alvin Kamara, Kenny Galloway and George Kittle