Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[perrynoid]

12 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

Isn't that partly to be expected though, given the following conditions?

1. The offensive line gave him almost no time to throw, as Teddy was one of the most sacked and pressured QBs in the league
2. Teddy had started fewer than 2 season's worth of games, and had just turned 23

Add in the fact that this was improving toward the end of 2015, and I think that the argument here is that Teddy has the chance to improve on this, where as Keenum has displayed this often enough throughout his career to call it a trait. I will agree though that I personally had been critical of Teddy for making to many failed completions.

Prior to this season, Teddy had 849 career passing attempts, while Case had 777.  How you could claim the one with the less experience is somehow "locked in" w/r/t habits/tendencies, while the other has room to grow, somewhat befuddles me (although in my elderly condition, I will admit to being befuddled often).  Given that no passer hits on 100% of their completions, I don't know what point there is in making note of this fact.

Additionally, wasn't Teddy widely criticized by many fans for holding the ball too long, and thus being responsible for taking so many sacks?  I suppose we will have these disagreements until the start of the off season lol, much to the chagrin of the big V.

[perrynoid]

Let's also keep in mind that, it is easy for us arm-chair QB's, sitting in our comfy living rooms, to point out that it is much more difficult to see these things from the level of the field, where 300+ pound linemen are trying to take your head off.  There is so much to process being an NFL QB, and in such a short time span, that few of us truly appreciate how difficult a job it really is.

[HitStickAllDay]

47 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

Isn't that partly to be expected though, given the following conditions?

1. The offensive line gave him almost no time to throw, as Teddy was one of the most sacked and pressured QBs in the league
2. Teddy had started fewer than 2 season's worth of games, and had just turned 23

Add in the fact that this was improving toward the end of 2015, and I think that the argument here is that Teddy has the chance to improve on this, where as Keenum has displayed this often enough throughout his career to call it a trait. I will agree though that I personally had been critical of Teddy for making to many failed completions.

I really think we have no idea what we have with Teddy given the state of the offensive line while he played. Many good quarterbacks have been ruined by poor offensive line play. Despite that, Teddy showed flashes of brilliance, while committing mistakes most second-year QBs make. This year it might make the most sense for Keenum to continue, but franchises don't play for one year. OK, they can, but given the youth of our team, our window isn't exactly closing. So, I'd prefer we figure out what we have with Teddy rather than let him go to another team. 

[JDBrocks]

Keenum has been in the league for a lot longer and has displayed the same tendencies in multiple offenses with multiple personnel groupings. He's 29 years old. Teddy was 23 when he had his last pass attempt. He'd been in the NFL for 2 seasons. 

I'm not going to convince you, or anyone else that believes in what Keenum is doing, that he is perilously close most games to making big mistakes and that his success thus far isn't sustainable long term. Which is fine! I hope that I am wrong and that he leads this team on a miracle run. I am trusting my eyes here, based on what I see Keenum doing in this offense, what I have seen Teddy accomplish in the last offense that he played in, and making a judgement about what I believe Teddy could do if he were in Keenum's place. That's all. It's a healthy debate and one that I think is probably happening between the Vikings' staff as we speak. There are great points being made on both sides. 

Additionally, I agree with you that there is a lot to process as a QB. At the same time they are professionals, and some do it better than others. I don't think that is an excuse for either party in question, outside of experience and tendencies.

[Cearbhall]

6 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

How can you say that given the information that has been covered myriad times in this thread?

I am not sure if this is a serious question. I kind of think not. But, I can say it because I have watched all of the Vikings games for the last plenty years. It is plainly obvious that Keenum is hitting far more big plays than any QB since Favre. Aside from that blip on the radar he is hitting more big plays since pre-shredded-knee Culpepper was throwing to Randy Moss. It really isn't even a close call IMO.

I like Teddy a lot and would love it if he could hit just as many big plays. That is a big if though considering the team has only had one QB in the last 10 years hitting plays like Keenum has been hitting them. I am open to the possibility that Teddy could hit as many big plays given the changes to the offense but there is no way I would be pulling Keenum to find that out at this point. The odds are heavily against Teddy coming in and being an improvement as long as Case keeps playing the way that he has been playing.

I don't think the difference between pre knee injury Bridgewater and the post injury version will be as serious as the difference between pre-shredded-knee Culpepper and post injury Culpepper. Of course, pre-inury Culpepper was light years ahead of pre-injury Bridgewater. Up to the injury, Bridgewater flashed some nice things but he is still more a story of hope that had proven little more than being not as terrible as Ponder or Jackson.

I still have a lot of hope for Teddy even though the hope has somewhat diminished after the knee injury. This is not at all unlike the hope I have for all Vikigns draft picks. You still can't start them over an established presence until they prove something. Teddy might not have that chance to prove anything this year.

In the end, I do not think that the decision to keep starting Keenum has been a very hard decision for coach Zimmer. Given Keenum's play, it is a fairly obvious decision. The only pressure on it would be the thought that you want to see how Teddy looks in games before contract time. Given the team's current success that desire is easy to push to the back seat. 

It is awesome seeing how well Case is doing for the team. If he gets knocked out, it is nice to have Teddy back. With hard work, he has the potential to someday approach the level of play the team has been getting out of Case Keenum. And Teddy has proven to me that, if nothing else, he is an extremely hard worker. 

 

[The Gnat]

So, this season of Keenum vs. Teddy's last season:

Leader in completion % at different ranges to see if someone is hitting more big plays or not. Had no idea what the numbers were coming in, but was curious, and obviously there's offensive line to factor in, but just passing numbers in a vacuum.

41+ - Keenum
31-40 - Bridgewater
21-30 - Bridgewater
11-20 - Bridgewater
1-10 - Keenum
At or behind LOS - Bridgewater

So of 41+, which statistically are more of an anomaly than a good stats, even QB's who throw a nice deep ball, Rodgers or Brees, have wild swings in this area, Keenum is leading, however, Keenum has exactly 0 completions in the next range down, which is also a fairly swinging range, though less so than the previous one. 

 

Also, just looking through splits at different things as well. Interestingly enough, Keenum is completing 80% of his passes in the 4th quarter. For Bridgewater in his last season, he was at 65.5%. It's an interesting stat because looking at that, it looks like Keenum is a great 4th quarter QB, but the disparity in passing attempts, albeit between a partial season/full season highlight the difference between leading late and completing simple passes in run situations often, so Bridgewater being down more often. This is also highlighted in the yards per attempt where Keenum is almost a full yard less per attempt than Bridgewater was.

I'm not sure I'm going to draw any major conclusions about this other than that I wish that the Vikings had the offensive line they do now when Bridgewater was a starter as that would actually tell us what is going on more so, because those differences are huge for the team. Also, I guess, how massive the progression of Theilen has been.

[vike daddy]

21 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

41+ - Keenum

how many of Keenum's long passes like this were shorter ones with massive yac?

 

i'm not trying to knock Keenum, i love what he's done for the team. but  lot of these stat driven analyses need further data to explain them.

[The Gnat]

1 minute ago, vike daddy said:

how many of Keenum's long passes like this were shorter ones with massive yac?

According to what I know of ESPN's splits, it should be ball in the air. Now, this is only something like 4 completions on the year of that distance with 0 TD's on those plays.

[vike daddy]

ok, thanks. but with the o-line Teddy was playing behind, did he have the time for 40+ passes in the air?

o-line this year has just been great.

[SemperFeist]

According to pro-football-reference.com, Keenum has completed 6 passes that have gone for 41+ yards. 

45 yards to Thielen against the Buccaneers 

47 yards to Diggs against the Buccaneers 

59 yard TD to Diggs against the Buccaneers 

49 yards to Thielen against the Redskins

51 yards to Diggs against the Redskins

65 yard TD to Thielen against the Rams. 

[The Gnat]

They have gone FOR 41+ yards, however, they haven't gone 41+ yards in the air. There's talk of big plays, so I looked to see, how many bombs has he hit, the answer is 4 of them. ESPN's stat is set up for 41+ yards in the air. Hence the wording of: "Case Keenum pass complete short left to Adam Thielen for 65 yards, touchdown" 

[wcblack34]

Case has been good this year. But he's made some boneheaded throws and has overthrown several wide open receivers. He's not the second coming of Drew Brees. I think it would be a mistake to hitch our wagon to him past this year, but I also think that Teddy is still unproven. 

 

Case's good play is a bit of a blessing and a curse. 

[SemperFeist]

8 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

They have gone FOR 41+ yards, however, they haven't gone 41+ yards in the air. There's talk of big plays, so I looked to see, how many bombs has he hit, the answer is 4 of them. ESPN's stat is set up for 41+ yards in the air. Hence the wording of: "Case Keenum pass complete short left to Adam Thielen for 65 yards, touchdown" 

Correct. Neither touchdown traveled 41+ in the air (unless you want to count how many yards behind the line of scrimmage he was, and get the Pythagorean Theorem involved). Thielen’s was roughly a five yard pass with the rest coming from yards after the catch, while Diggs’ was roughly an 18 yard pass that he ran the rest of the way. 

[The Gnat]

5 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

Case's good play is a bit of a blessing and a curse. 

I mean, having what looks like it should be playoff bound team is a great blessing.

I agree that hitching ones wagon to him would be a bad idea, but I don't think the Vikings will. I hope they keep him around and Bridgewater and let them compete for the starting job next season.

[Worm Guts]

I have a hard time trusting Keenum because of his pedigree and history, but I also think some here are going out of their way to downplay his accomplishments this season.