Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[JDBrocks]

22 minutes ago, perrynoid said:

Thank you for the kind words.  The horse keeps regenerating btw lol.  Actually, the ESPN total QBR touts their system as incorporating  "all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties."  Further,  "since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency."

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

Harkening back to the original point, that being the claim Teddy and Cases stats being on the same level, I offered the total QBR numbers to show that was not the case.  My solution to the QB dilemma would be to offer the same contract to both: several million base salary, plus playing time and performance incentives worth several more million.  Thus, whoever won the starting job next year would earn more money, and let the best man win.  It would also protect the team in the event of injury to one or both of the players, since quite a bit of the money is doled out only for playing time and performance.

Addressing another issue raised in this thread, aesthetics don't count for much in pro football.  A pretty 20-yard completion is till a 20-yard completion, a TD counts as much irrespective of how attractive the play was.  The play where Case was struck in the head (no penalty?!?), ducked under a lineman's attempted tackle, and completed a pass to Thielen, might not have been pretty, but was nonetheless a very impressive display of talent and determination.  In fact, one could say Cases sack avoidance was grandpa-esque in its nature.

 

The horse is still alive...

Perhaps I wasn't clear before. I wasn't talking about aesthetics as much as I was about whether or not the QB was making a "good" pass. Was the pass A: the right decision and B: an accurate and catchable ball? Here is an example of Case sticking to a first read and throwing into the corner of the endzone where there was safety help instead of throwing to a wide open Treadwell in the middle of the endzone:

https://twitter.com/JoshMenschNFL/status/932996978262335488

This isn't an isolated example, as there are plenty of instances of case missing open players. Even recognizing that he missed obvious touchdowns after he lets go of the ball.

The other issue is one of accuracy. Sure, 20 yards is 20 yards and that's fine. But what about when an inaccurate throw requires a receiver to dive and make an incredible grab, when a more accurate throw gives a receiver an opportunity for a big gain after the catch? Those are the types of things that QBR doesn't account for (results based). Case has a ball placement issue that I don't think it correctable at this stage of his career. The ball often comes out wobbly and off target, requiring more of his receivers and limiting plays.

https://twitter.com/JoshMenschNFL/status/932685438577467401

I know it seems silly to be nitpicking issues when the offense has 9 TDs in 9 Redzone attempts over the last two games, but I really think that is a testament to how good the offensive design and playmakers are, and not as much of a mark in Keenums favor. I love what he does to keep plays alive, I just wonder how much more explosive the offense would be given how much better Teddy is/was with the things that I mentioned above. 

[perrynoid]

With our luck all 3 veteran QB's will sign elsewhere next season, and we will end up with a FA QB and Sloter duking it out for the starting QB position.  At lest we might net some 3rd round comp picks in that scenario.

[Dolmonite26]

32 minutes ago, perrynoid said:

Addressing another issue raised in this thread, aesthetics don't count for much in pro football.  A pretty 20-yard completion is till a 20-yard completion, a TD counts as much irrespective of how attractive the play was.  The play where Case was struck in the head (no penalty?!?), ducked under a lineman's attempted tackle, and completed a pass to Thielen, might not have been pretty, but was nonetheless a very impressive display of talent and determination.  In fact, one could say Cases sack avoidance was grandpa-esque in its nature.

This misses the point a tad.

It's less about how good the play look it's more about can rely on things to continue happening that way.

The play you're referring to isn't even an example worthy of what other poster and I have alluded to.  Because, even tho the throw itself wasnt pretty, in the context of the play it was great.

However, there have just been so many missed reads and throws hes bailed out on that you cant but wonder if it can continue or if it will work against good opponents in the playoffs

[CriminalMind]

The narrative of lets offer both Case and Teddy the same amount, and let them duke it out sounds nice..... but that's not how its likely to end up.

Case's camp will have higher negotiating power.... I'm sure Case's agent is already starting to have conversations with the people in organizations who would be in position to add a starting QB. Some team is going to offer Case a good chuck of money, based on his play this season. I'm sure he will give the Vikings every chance to retain him, but the money would need to be relatively similar to what he is getting offered else where.

 

[SteelKing728]

2 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

The narrative of lets offer both Case and Teddy the same amount, and let them duke it out sounds nice..... but that's not how its likely to end up.

Case's camp will have higher negotiating power.... I'm sure Case's agent is already starting to have conversations with the people in organizations who would be in position to add a starting QB. Some team is going to offer Case a good chuck of money, based on his play this season. I'm sure he will give the Vikings every chance to retain him, but the money would need to be relatively similar to what he is getting offered else where.

 

As of now. If Case were to get injured, and the Vikings went on with Bridgewater and he had similar success, then both could end up making nearly the same amount perhaps.

But assuming Bridgewater doesn't take a snap this year,  you have a good point.

[perrynoid]

Having missed so many throws, one would be shocked that we are sitting at 8-2, and how by virtually every metric, whether it be total QBR, DVOA, etc. he is performing well.  Over the last few weeks, against decent defenses he has completed 72.4 and 71.1% of his passes respectively, so he is not missing too many throws.  Every game I watch, QB's "miss" open receivers.  If Case were that much worse than other NFL QB's at missing open receivers, he would not be putting up the numbers he has been.  The QB is the linchpin of any offense, it cannot be plausibly maintained that a poor QB can direct an efficient, NFL offense.  To reiterate:

Offense rank: 7th (DVOA, not updated for last Sunday's game)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Cases QB rating: 93.7

Cases total QBR: 74.0

[JDBrocks]

Who said he was a poor QB? I just happen to be in the camp that thinks that there is a better QB on the roster. That's all that I am saying.

 

With PFF charting his performance, He's pretty much doing what he's done his entire career.

[rf54]

This from Bleacher Report:
Should the Vikings bench Case Keenum for Teddy Bridgewater even though they might go to the Super Bowl with Keenum?

Hopefully Keenum's latest performance puts an end to this question, which is one of the stupidest I've heard over the last few years. Keenum is playing like one of the best signal-callers in the league and far better than Bridgewater ever has.

Keenum makes the Vikings offense dangerous. He has weapons in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The run game has become a force to be reckoned with, and the defense is special.

That defense played well against the Rams, but L.A. did move the ball early. The game-changer came when Anthony Harris stripped Cooper Kupp on Minnesota's 1-yard line. That was a momentum-shifter, and the Vikings never looked back after that.

Minnesota is one of the best teams in football, and they continue to prove it every week.

[swede700]

1 hour ago, perrynoid said:

With our luck all 3 veteran QB's will sign elsewhere next season, and we will end up with a FA QB and Sloter duking it out for the starting QB position.  At lest we might net some 3rd round comp picks in that scenario.

I don't think there's going to be enough openings and too much competition in the other spots to warrant them all going elsewhere...in the end, I think the most likely scenario is Teddy returning and that's it.  You'll definitely see openings in Buffalo, NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Denver in the AFC (potentially also Miami) and probably only Arizona and Washington outside of us in the NFC.  The offensive rosters in those spots aren't all that great, for the most part and the best defenses belongs to Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington and they'll have to compete with the likes of Tyrod Taylor (who has an out on his contract), Kirk Cousins, Bortles (as you know some coach will believe they can fix him), and potentially also Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill as they all have outs in their deals as well.  

[SemperFeist]

Every quarterback has misses, yes, but Keenum is missing a number of big plays, potentially touchdowns. 

And the biggest concern isnt that he’s missing an open receiver after the snap, he’s failing to make proper reads before the snap. The example above is similar to what we’ve seen multiple times. The example above is a great one. Thielen has the corner and the safety over the top of him. It’s clearly a double team on Thielen. The safety has vacated the middle of the field, and Treadwell is left one on one with a cornerback in off coverage. Keenum’s read should be to the middle of the field, and the wide receiver in a very favorable matchup. But once the ball is snapped, Keenum never looks away from Thielen, the safety moves over and takes away any throw and Keenum is forced to throw it away. 

[HitStickAllDay]

I'm a believer that Teddy has more upside than Keenum. With the clean pocket the line is allowing and WR weapons I think Teddy does at least as well as Keenum. I don't think Keenum is our long-term answer at QB so I think we should go with Bridgewater now. The way Zimmer talks about Keenum it seems that he thinks there's a healthy luck factor contributing to Keenum's success. There's volatility in performance and perhaps we are seeing a two standard deviation event from Keenum resulting in the mirage that he is a better player than he is. Don't get me wrong, I like what Keenum is doing, but his arm talent and ability to go through progressions is not particularly impressive. I just don't see how putting Teddy in will make this team worse. Sure, there's a risk it upsets the momentum, but I think the upside overweighs the downside at this point. Either way, it's been a fun team to watch.

[Cearbhall]

54 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Every quarterback has misses, yes, but Keenum is missing a number of big plays, potentially touchdowns. 

And the biggest concern isnt that he’s missing an open receiver after the snap, he’s failing to make proper reads before the snap. The example above is similar to what we’ve seen multiple times. The example above is a great one. Thielen has the corner and the safety over the top of him. It’s clearly a double team on Thielen. The safety has vacated the middle of the field, and Treadwell is left one on one with a cornerback in off coverage. Keenum’s read should be to the middle of the field, and the wide receiver in a very favorable matchup. But once the ball is snapped, Keenum never looks away from Thielen, the safety moves over and takes away any throw and Keenum is forced to throw it away. 

Every QB has their favorites. They become favorites for a reason. IMO, you are making way too much of Keenum missing big plays. The reality is he is hitting way more big plays than Bridgewater ever hit and likely would be hitting.

[JDBrocks]

7 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Every QB has their favorites. They become favorites for a reason. IMO, you are making way too much of Keenum missing big plays. The reality is he is hitting way more big plays than Bridgewater ever hit and likely would be hitting.

How can you say that given the information that has been covered myriad times in this thread?

[swede700]

I don't have a dog in the argument (as whether he's missing big plays or not is rather irrelevant to me), but I seem to recall people just blistering Teddy for constantly missing big plays and open receivers himself (not just missing them as in over or under-throwing, but also in lacking of awareness).  It's always seemed to me that the "Tedheads" as Barreiro calls them, are having revisionist memories.    

[JDBrocks]

Isn't that partly to be expected though, given the following conditions?

1. The offensive line gave him almost no time to throw, as Teddy was one of the most sacked and pressured QBs in the league
2. Teddy had started fewer than 2 season's worth of games, and had just turned 23

Add in the fact that this was improving toward the end of 2015, and I think that the argument here is that Teddy has the chance to improve on this, where as Keenum has displayed this often enough throughout his career to call it a trait. I will agree though that I personally had been critical of Teddy for making to many failed completions.