Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[The Gnat]

13 minutes ago, Klomp said:

Another question that would need to be answered: Would you feel as confident in Keenum as 2018 starter if Pat Shurmur wasn't here?

Nope, the fact that he hasn't been that amazing (don't get me wrong he's been good but not franchise QB good), I want him as a back-up.

[vikesfan89]

The 2 games that teddy has been the back up with the possibility of playing, the Vikings have won fairly easily. I don't think Zimmer has to name Keenum the unquestioned starter 

[JDBrocks]

2 hours ago, milanb said:

And, as I had indicated in a previous post, Keenum also brings a level of intensity onto the field that seems to rub off on the rest of the team.

I agree that Keenum has a lot of holes in his game and may not be a long term solution at QB, but I don't agree that the stats or the wins are a fluke.

I don't think the wins or all of the stats are a fluke either. I don't think anyone has said that. If you look at that Matthew Coller article that I posted before he does a good job of explaining that Keenum is pretty much being who he is, but having success due to a great supporting cast. I think the discussion is about whether or not the position can/should be upgraded, and whether or not that upgrade is currently on the team.

When teams have an off season to watch a full season of Keenum in this system will teams be better equipped to exploit his shortcomings?

[CriminalMind]

3 hours ago, Klomp said:

Another question that would need to be answered: Would you feel as confident in Keenum as 2018 starter if Pat Shurmur wasn't here?

I've thought about this as well, and obviously losing Pat Shurmur is not ideal.

I would be less confident in Keenum ability to win games with an inferior OC, but based on body of work with the team and uncertainty with Teddy, I would still be more confident in Keenum over Teddy, under that scenario.

That situation, is not ideal

[The Gnat]

3 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

I would be less confident in Keenum ability to win games with an inferior OC, but based on body of work with the team and uncertainty with Teddy, I would still be more confident in Keenum over Teddy, under that scenario.

I think if Shurmer left I'd be more confident in Teddy for Keenum. Teddy has more upside. Granted as long as the new OC doesn't install Turner's offense, I think either would do quite well. I think that we could bring in most QB's and as long as they can play decently well, their numbers are going to look good because of the offensive players we have and how the offensive line has played.

[CriminalMind]

37 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I don't think the wins or all of the stats are a fluke either. I don't think anyone has said that. If you look at that Matthew Coller article that I posted before he does a good job of explaining that Keenum is pretty much being who he is, but having success due to a great supporting cast. I think the discussion is about whether or not the position can/should be upgraded, and whether or not that upgrade is currently on the team.

When teams have an off season to watch a full season of Keenum in this system will teams be better equipped to exploit his shortcomings?

I always agree with upgrading the QB position when you have the ability.

However, I don't think a QB who hasn't played an actual game in 22months ish and has no experience in this offense and less experience with our WR can be counted on as an upgrade.

[milanb]

9 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I don't think the wins or all of the stats are a fluke either. I don't think anyone has said that. If you look at that Matthew Coller article that I posted before he does a good job of explaining that Keenum is pretty much being who he is, but having success due to a great supporting cast. I think the discussion is about whether or not the position can/should be upgraded, and whether or not that upgrade is currently on the team.

When teams have an off season to watch a full season of Keenum in this system will teams be better equipped to exploit his shortcomings?

Yes.

We may be having one of those glass-is-half-empty vs glass-is-half-full arguments.

 

 

 

[SteelKing728]

5 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

My point is, if he continues his level of play ... he is ahead of Teddy entering the offseason.

Case would be the Vikings top priority entering the offseason.

If we retained Case as the starter (whatever price but it would qualify for "starters money"), I think Teddy would look for a fresh start as a starter somewhere else (probably a bottom team who needs a bridge starter for a year)

Where do you rank Keenum right now in comparison to other QBs around the league? You seem pretty high on him.

Where would you have ranked Teddy pre-injury?

[SemperFeist]

[CriminalMind]

14 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Where do you rank Keenum right now in comparison to other QBs around the league? You seem pretty high on him.

Where would you have ranked Teddy pre-injury?

It's more that I'm not that high on Teddy. I would have placed Teddy in the 26th range pre-injury. And the injury raised the unknown/concern level.

Where would I put Keenum (this season)? I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be discounting his play due to the offensive scheme he is playing in.

I would have Keenum (on Vikings) ahead of Teddy though.

 

[JDBrocks]

I'm curious now...

2015 Teddy and 2017 Case are very similar statistically. 

If Keenum's play shouldn't be discounted this season because of the offensive scheme, shouldn't the offensive scheme that Bridgewater played in be a positive mark - given the relative production?

 

EDIT: To take that a step further, are you suggesting that Keenum's level of play/ability has independently taken a step forward, and should translate to any scheme?

[perrynoid]

32 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I'm curious now...

2015 Teddy and 2017 Case are very similar statistically. 

If Keenum's play shouldn't be discounted this season because of the offensive scheme, shouldn't the offensive scheme that Bridgewater played in be a positive mark - given the relative production?

 

EDIT: To take that a step further, are you suggesting that Keenum's level of play/ability has independently taken a step forward, and should translate to any scheme?

Here is where I think Case has a distinct advantage over both Teddy and Sam.  His pocket awareness and elusiveness is better than either, especially Bradford's.  In addition, he seems more willing to go downfield (and convert) on 3rd down, which has propelled us to the 4th best 3rd down conversion ranking in the NFL this year:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

whereas we were tied for 19th in 2015.  Many of us on this website were bemoaning the unwillingness/non productivity of Sam (in particular) and Teddy in converting on 3rd downs in the recent past.  What this means is, not only is Case keeping drives alive, but even in the event of the drive not resulting in a score, he eats up clock time, thus putting the defense in better field position and giving them some rest.  We are currently ranked 6th (tied with Denver) in TOP:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot?date=2017-11-20

whereas we were 16th in 2015.

I would also dispute the claim that their stats are statistically similar: Case is currently rated 2nd overall in total QBR (73.9) behind only Watson, who is on injured reserve

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

while Teddy was rated 17th overall (57.7) in 2015:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2015

Add to this Teddy has not played in quite some time and is coming off a catastrophic injury, and I am sure you can understand my reticence to make a change at the QB position.  To answer your last question: yes, I feel Case is improving as the season rolls along, and that he has not yet reached his ceiling as a QB.

This is not a knock on Teddy, I love the guy and if I had my choice of having any current NFL player as my next door neighbor, it would be him; however, only us Vikings fans would be bemoaning our QB situation while sitting at 8-2 lol.

More good news: we are currently given the 5th best chance of winning the SB this year:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/

[JDBrocks]

Those numbers don't account for scheme or supporting cast. 

QBR is a results based metric, and does not take into account whether or not the pass or decisions were good (see Matthew Coller article). A 50/50 ball that gets tipped and the receiver comes down with is worth a ton in QBR, even if it's the receiver doing the work to steal a ball from a DB. Do you believe in a metric that has Case Keenum playing better football than Brady, Wentz, and Brees?

Consider the 3rd down conversion stat. That's a great metric, and something I criticized Bradford and Bridgewater for. It's also important to weigh that against distance. Keenum has been facing very few third and long (6+ yards to go)scenarios. And when he has his YPA goes to 5.7 (Bridgewater was a league best 9.4 in 2015). This is a credit to Shurmer and the offensive scheme as a whole. I give Keenum a ton of credit for that too! It's just important to remember that by comparison, Adrian Peterson would put the offense in negative situations on early downs often, raising the degree of difficulty.

It is REALLY REALLY hard to compare these two players given the fact that they haven't played in the same offense. I'm using what I know about Keenum given his past performances (including this year), what I thought about Teddy pre-injury, AND the fact that he has been given a clean bill of health to form my opinion.

[Cearbhall]

2 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Where do you rank Keenum right now in comparison to other QBs around the league? You seem pretty high on him.

Where would you have ranked Teddy pre-injury?

I would rank Keenum just above the Dalton line.

Teddy was still below the Dalton line. We have hopes that he may cross over to the right side of the Dalton line with improvement.

[CriminalMind]

1 hour ago, perrynoid said:

Here is where I think Case has a distinct advantage over both Teddy and Sam.  His pocket awareness and elusiveness is better than either, especially Bradford's.  In addition, he seems more willing to go downfield (and convert) on 3rd down, which has propelled us to the 4th best 3rd down conversion ranking in the NFL this year:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

whereas we were tied for 19th in 2015.  Many of us on this website were bemoaning the unwillingness/non productivity of Sam (in particular) and Teddy in converting on 3rd downs in the recent past.  What this means is, not only is Case keeping drives alive, but even in the event of the drive not resulting in a score, he eats up clock time, thus putting the defense in better field position and giving them some rest.  We are currently ranked 6th (tied with Denver) in TOP:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot?date=2017-11-20

whereas we were 16th in 2015.

I would also dispute the claim that their stats are statistically similar: Case is currently rated 2nd overall in total QBR (73.9) behind only Watson, who is on injured reserve

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

while Teddy was rated 17th overall (57.7) in 2015:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2015

Add to this Teddy has not played in quite some time and is coming off a catastrophic injury, and I am sure you can understand my reticence to make a change at the QB position.  To answer your last question: yes, I feel Case is improving as the season rolls along, and that he has not yet reached his ceiling as a QB.

This is not a knock on Teddy, I love the guy and if I had my choice of having any current NFL player as my next door neighbor, it would be him; however, only us Vikings fans would be bemoaning our QB situation while sitting at 8-2 lol.

More good news: we are currently given the 5th best chance of winning the SB this year:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/

Great post. I agree