Matts4313 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Shady Slim said: were you always on board with an all-defense strategy? I wanted a more balanced team across, but the team as a whole wanted to go all defense so I went with it. Obviously I was gone all day, but I dont think there was any movement from the defense stance today. Its all RNG and I think we gave our team a strong chance to win. Just unlucky rolls from what I can tell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedLavie Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Shady Slim said: @TedLavie; you said you ran some simulations; how many showed your tribe copping the phat L? Still think this strategy gave us the best odds - though I'm interested in getting my math challenged by @Malfatron at some point. Still a dice roll though, 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 10 hours ago, Shady Slim said: @JoshstraDaymus; you came from almost insurmountable odds to nearly win this, so do you feel safe? I feel like I have very little to be worried about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 10 hours ago, Shady Slim said: @MWil23; you went on a run of three straight pushes off the hill to start your tribe's comeback; so does it hurt more they couldn't finish? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 7 hours ago, TedLavie said: Still think this strategy gave us the best odds - though I'm interested in getting my math challenged by @Malfatron at some point. Still a dice roll though, as long as our heavy hitters arent targeted first, we have the advantage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 10 hours ago, TedLavie said: Still think this strategy gave us the best odds - though I'm interested in getting my math challenged by @Malfatron at some point. Still a dice roll though, I argued for your guys’ strategy the whole time. Thankfully no one listened Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Whicker said: I argued for your guys’ strategy the whole time. Thankfully no one listened I mean, to be honest for a half assed strategy it was close to stealing a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, JoshstraDaymus said: I mean, to be honest for a half assed strategy it was close to stealing a win. It’s not half assed. It’s the statistically optimal strategy. I only said this like 15 times in discord lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedLavie Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Malfatron said: as long as our heavy hitters arent targeted first, we have the advantage Not really though. Say you had an 90 20 ratio and we had a 20 90 and we target each other (since we all targeted one different person it was virtually the case) You had a 90% chance of shooting and then a 10% of hitting so an 0.09 odds I had a 20% chance of shooting and a 80% chance of hitting so an 0.16 odds Unless I miss something of course. I think @Shady Slim wronged us because our tactics made him work more. Good for you they didn't listen @Whicker at least you didn't have to do a walk of shame on your discord this morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, TedLavie said: Good for you they didn't listen @Whicker at least you didn't have to do a walk of shame on your discord this morning. Look at the 2 left standing Whicker: 20/89/1 And Pickle: 20/90/0 (I believe I was the only one that went with it all on defense and I dodged a lot of attacks from josh at the end.) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Pickle Rick said: Look at the 2 left standing Whicker: 20/89/1 And Pickle: 20/90/0 (I believe I was the only one that went with it all on defense and I dodged a lot of attacks from josh at the end.) I was the last one locked off from our group right and I had similar. 20-87-3 I think everyone at the end had the same strategy. The beginning and bigboards resulted in the difference I think 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Pickle Rick said: Look at the 2 left standing Whicker: 20/89/1 And Pickle: 20/90/0 (I believe I was the only one that went with it all on defense and I dodged a lot of attacks from josh at the end.) I think our strategy of having a mix was the best. Defensive players have the advantage with all things equal, but speed and order are in play and that can't be dismissed. Us spending some points on speed allowed us to jump out to an early lead and that made all the difference IMO. Our offensive juggernauts were able to pick off a few before things really got going. I think fin knocked off two and he only had 25 defense. The defensive players are obviously more likely to still be standing at the end, but we don't win that without everyone's builds. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 2 hours ago, TedLavie said: Not really though. Say you had an 90 20 ratio and we had a 20 90 and we target each other (since we all targeted one different person it was virtually the case) You had a 90% chance of shooting and then a 10% of hitting so an 0.09 odds I had a 20% chance of shooting and a 80% chance of hitting so an 0.16 odds Unless I miss something of course. I think @Shady Slim wronged us because our tactics made him work more. Good for you they didn't listen @Whicker at least you didn't have to do a walk of shame on your discord this morning. Your biggest mistake was not with your offense/defense ratio, it was with speed IMO. That was one thing I argued we should be a little aggressive with. It's a fine line as ideally you have just 1 more than the other team. Anything above that is essentially wasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Orca said: I was the last one locked off from our group right and I had similar. 20-87-3 I think everyone at the end had the same strategy. The beginning and bigboards resulted in the difference I think 1 minute ago, swoosh said: I think our strategy of having a mix was the best. Defensive players have the advantage with all things equal, but speed and order are in play and that can't be dismissed. Us spending some points on speed allowed us to jump out to an early lead and that made all the difference IMO. Our offensive juggernauts were able to pick off a few before things really got going. I think fin knocked off two and he only had 25 defense. The defensive players are obviously more likely to still be standing at the end, but we don't win that without everyone's builds. Definitely. If our attackers were targeted more than things might have flipped. But instead they were left alone and used the attack to get more shots off while the defenders waited it out. It's kinda what I was talking about when I suggested those that are least likely to be targeted should go more offense and the higher value targets should go more defense (not sure where we ended up with that). It was definitely a team effort. That lead was vital with how those numbers kept coming up in the end. Josh and mwil just wouldn't go down and kept picking us off 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 @theuntouchablewe miss you, come home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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