2021 NFL Draft Prospects

[M.10.E]

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Not really. Sure we could always use more talent but we'll have some money to spend in FA and no real glaring holes beyond WR, assuming we re-sign Ngakoue which I think is likely. It's about time to put our chips in and go for it. 

CB, S, OL, WR, TE, Edge are all pretty big needs IMO (no order).

[SalvadorsDeli]

38 minutes ago, M.10.E said:

CB, S, OL, WR, TE, Edge are all pretty big needs IMO (no order).

I think a lot of those needs are moreso depth needs rather than really needing premium pieces - and thus places where we can play the middle and low market in FA rather than needing a billion draft picks to reload. Like at CB, we def need a new slot corner but we're also starting from a default of having two Pro Bowlers there. EDGE is probably where I'm with you the most because you can never have enough pass rush but if we bring back Ngakoue and Bowser then we're starting from a decent position and could be filled out with a mix of vet pass rushers and some late round developmental pieces. We should be looking at the FA market for a rotational tight end to give us a reliable depth option to put up against that Oregon kid we have coming back from injury but it's not an area where we need to go big, it just can't be ignored entirely like it was this past offseason. If Powers keeps it up OL isn't as big a priority as it once looked with us set at 4 of 5 positions - if there's a premium center to be had then there's a conversation to be had but otherwise running it back and having Mekari and a potentially better receovered Skura compete at C isn't a disaster. Safety... I guess? Sort of feels like people panic any time anyone on defense misses a tackle and we feel like we gotta go put that at the top of the list of needs. It's a nice-to-have for me but I'd be fine with Elliott and Clark back there again next year. 

Even leaving aside the fact that most of those positions are ones where we've traditionally had a lot of success finding diamonds in the rough, the holes really aren't that massive as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I'd want us to do a Herschel Walker trade or anything like that but this is pretty damn close to being a complete team and we're at the point where we've already paid enough attention at the other positions that going big for a legit #1 receiver (whether thats tradiing for someone like Golladay or trading up for Chase/Waddle/Smith) isn't some reckless luxury pick bur rather the remaining move to be made to take the team to the next level in a way that like, a new slot corner or #3 TE can't.

Also, FWIW, I know this came up in the context of a BIG trade up to get a WR in the draft but if we end up not making the playoffs (which is looking more like a possibility after the Steelers loss last night) then we'll pick 18th at worst and its all of a sudden not a king's ransom to move up ~5-10 slots if needed to get one of those guys. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by SalvadorsDeli

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Unfortunately, just a 2nd isn't going to get it done.

Smith is going top 10 at worst after the season he's had.

We'll be, what - in the mid 20s probably?

Maybe, the Dolphins are the only team I think could be a viable option to do so considering Tua. But regardless of the season Smith is putting up the NFL has plenty of conservative thinkers. They will look at Smith and see a 6’1” 175 lbs WR option, see zero WR comps of similar size, and be turned off. Also Smith isn’t expected to an underwear warrior at the combine. Add in that this WR class is also quite plush and I find the chances of Smith going top 10 and really any WR for that matter, not very likely.

Last year there was very few blue chip prospects at the top of the draft board, 3 QBs went top 10. This season there could be as many as 4 QBs that could go top 10, but still a likely 3. Yet you also have blue chip talent like Sewell, Parsons, Surtain, Farley, Rousseau vs last year with Young, Okudah, Simmons.

Jamar Chase while having sat out also likely looks better in shorts. Rashod Bateman while not as good as Smith has the more prototypical size that NFL teams look for... and again, the NFL has proven time and again to care about such things. Jaylen Waddle is also a candidate to shred the combine and overtake Smith similar to how Ruggs overtook Jeudy and Lamb, who were both superior WRs on the field.

5 hours ago, M.10.E said:

This team has too many needs to trade picks like that.

This team also sucks at developing WRs, Smith probably gets undervalued in the process and if he falls to that pick #15 range, which I believe he will, then as opposed to ‘playing it safe’ this team should trade up and get a difference maker; be it DeVonta Smith or Kyle Pitts. If losing the pick is too rich, then swap the 2nd for a 4th and call it a day. If we’re unable to secure Lamar a go-to WR in free agency than we shouldn’t play any games with getting him a go-to WR via the draft; Pitts and Smith being the two that I see who are IMO absolutely bullet proof.

Whereas with prep time this team has shown they can get the OL situation under control. If anything my backup plan if we can’t get a free agent WR would be to attack Malik Hooker in FA. The Colts declined his 5th year option and if he can bounce back from his Achilles injury and be the single high safety eraser as he was in college and to start his rookie season, then it would be a gamble that pays immense dividends. Add in Ngakoue with Bowser and/or Ryan Kerrigan, Melvin Ingram, or Von Miller. If the Broncos decide to rebuild (and they might), they couldn’t justify paying Miller $19m. With Derek Wolfe here to recruit, I can see us adding Miller.

 

3 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I think a lot of those needs are moreso depth needs rather than really needing premium pieces - and thus places where we can play the middle and low market in FA rather than needing a billion draft picks to reload. Like at CB, we def need a new slot corner but we're also starting from a default of having two Pro Bowlers there. EDGE is probably where I'm with you the most because you can never have enough pass rush but if we bring back Ngakoue and Bowser then we're starting from a decent position and could be filled out with a mix of vet pass rushers and some late round developmental pieces. We should be looking at the FA market for a rotational tight end to give us a reliable depth option to put up against that Oregon kid we have coming back from injury but it's not an area where we need to go big, it just can't be ignored entirely like it was this past offseason. If Powers keeps it up OL isn't as big a priority as it once looked with us set at 4 of 5 positions - if there's a premium center to be had then there's a conversation to be had but otherwise running it back and having Mekari and a potentially better receovered Skura compete at C isn't a disaster. Safety... I guess? Sort of feels like people panic any time anyone on defense misses a tackle and we feel like we gotta go put that at the top of the list of needs. It's a nice-to-have for me but I'd be fine with Elliott and Clark back there again next year. 

Even leaving aside the fact that most of those positions are ones where we've traditionally had a lot of success finding diamonds in the rough, the holes really aren't that massive as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I'd want us to do a Herschel Walker trade or anything like that but this is pretty damn close to being a complete team and we're at the point where we've already paid enough attention at the other positions that going big for a legit #1 receiver (whether thats tradiing for someone like Golladay or trading up for Chase/Waddle/Smith) isn't some reckless luxury pick bur rather the remaining move to be made to take the team to the next level in a way that like, a new slot corner or #3 TE can't.

Also, FWIW, I know this came up in the context of a BIG trade up to get a WR in the draft but if we end up not making the playoffs (which is looking more like a possibility after the Steelers loss last night) then we'll pick 18th at worst and its all of a sudden not a king's ransom to move up ~5-10 slots if needed to get one of those guys. 

Agree with everything except the safety part. Only I only half disagree there. I think we have two quality safeties, but we certainly need to add some cover one talent. Ardarius Washington from TCU looks like Lardarius Webb coming out of college, but if he had played safety instead of corner. I’d go Hooker in FA and Washington on day three and hope something works out. Otherwise safety becomes an even great priority need in 2022.

But yeah, everything else, completely agree. Well... I’d have you add Kyle Pitts to your list as well. He might be a TE, but he lines up at both TE and WR spots. He can legitimately do both at a high enough level where he could play Boykin’s role, while also doing some of the things Hurst was doing, but just at an elite level. The closest comp I have for him is Calvin Johnson... and if somehow he falls within range he too would make for a great trade up option.

[Ray Reed]

^^ That is a lottttt of work and conjecture trying to will out a way Devonta Smith doesn’t go top 10. 

I wish it weren’t, but he’s going top 10. 12 at the lowest. Guaranteed.

Kyle Pitts will also not make it past 12.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Ray Reed

[diamondbull424]

11 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

^^ That is a lottttt of work and conjecture trying to will out a way Devonta Smith doesn’t go top 10. 

I wish it weren’t, but he’s going top 10. 12 at the lowest. Guaranteed.

Kyle Pitts will also not make it past 12.

I suppose, it has happened 4 times in the last 20 years of the NFL... only 1 time where a TE also was included in the top 12 with at least two other WRs, when Ebron went in the top 12 of the 2014 draft with OBJ, Evans, and Watkins. That draft had only Blake Bortles at QB go within the top 12 picks.

The other three occasions (no TE went in the other scenarios) came in 2004, 2005, and 2017 with three QBs going in two of those drafts. Obviously 04’ was the famed Eli, Rivers, Big Ben draft; while 2017 was the Trubs, Watson, Mahomes draft.

It’s never happened (In that time) with 4 QBs going within the first 15 picks, so Trey Lance and/or Zack Wilson going within the top 15 picks would be deemed very unlikely in the above scenarios. Teams like the Jets, Jags, WFT, Bears, Pats will all have to be patient; not to mention teams that could have interest in a QB will have to wait an additional year such as the Broncos, Falcons, and Panthers.

Teams would also have to ignore positional value because their are two corners that are considered to be blue chip options in Farley and Surtain (not to mention potential risers like Jaycee Horn), six high end OL in Sewell, Cosmi, Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, Slater, and Wyatt Davis; you’d think at least 3-4 of which should go top 12.

This without considering Micah Parsons who is probably the best LB prospect to come out since Patrick Willis. What’s more, it would have to assume that defensive players will be thin at the top of the draft with premium picks.

——

There’s a lot more one has to do to assume that both Pitts and Smith make it within the top 12 picks. We have to assume defensive players won’t rise in the process, that OL will be skipped over for the skill players, and that teams who haven’t been competitive because of QB play (or not as competitive) won’t be looking to secure their future QB talent high in this draft.

Furthermore we also have to be banking not just on an uncommon draft sequence (3 receivers in top 12), but that it happens with the exact combination that features both Pitts and Smith. The chances of which seem to be no greater than 5% of happening, considering the historical context. More likely though, considering Waddle, Chase, and Bateman all have potential to claim a top 12 spot based on resume and ability in addition to the two aforementioned names, the chances are probably closer to 3% or something like that. It could happen, but I don’t find it very likely at all.

[berlin calling]

can see it already, its going to be Derwin James 2.0 scenario where Smith drops to us, only for EDC to trade down.

... which i find increasingly realistic if the Ravens miss out on the POs and stay at 18.

you just know EDC wants his 3rd round pick back and this draft seems quote stacked with talent at positions of need.
If WFT makes it into the POs a team might want to trade up in front of them to grab a QB falling. Saints ain't shy to invest draft capital to move up. Indy could be up for a move.

 

[Ray Reed]

3 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I suppose, it has happened 4 times in the last 20 years of the NFL... only 1 time where a TE also was included in the top 12 with at least two other WRs, when Ebron went in the top 12 of the 2014 draft with OBJ, Evans, and Watkins. That draft had only Blake Bortles at QB go within the top 12 picks.

The other three occasions (no TE went in the other scenarios) came in 2004, 2005, and 2017 with three QBs going in two of those drafts. Obviously 04’ was the famed Eli, Rivers, Big Ben draft; while 2017 was the Trubs, Watson, Mahomes draft.

It’s never happened (In that time) with 4 QBs going within the first 15 picks, so Trey Lance and/or Zack Wilson going within the top 15 picks would be deemed very unlikely in the above scenarios. Teams like the Jets, Jags, WFT, Bears, Pats will all have to be patient; not to mention teams that could have interest in a QB will have to wait an additional year such as the Broncos, Falcons, and Panthers.

Teams would also have to ignore positional value because their are two corners that are considered to be blue chip options in Farley and Surtain (not to mention potential risers like Jaycee Horn), six high end OL in Sewell, Cosmi, Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, Slater, and Wyatt Davis; you’d think at least 3-4 of which should go top 12.

This without considering Micah Parsons who is probably the best LB prospect to come out since Patrick Willis. What’s more, it would have to assume that defensive players will be thin at the top of the draft with premium picks.

——

There’s a lot more one has to do to assume that both Pitts and Smith make it within the top 12 picks. We have to assume defensive players won’t rise in the process, that OL will be skipped over for the skill players, and that teams who haven’t been competitive because of QB play (or not as competitive) won’t be looking to secure their future QB talent high in this draft.

Furthermore we also have to be banking not just on an uncommon draft sequence (3 receivers in top 12), but that it happens with the exact combination that features both Pitts and Smith. The chances of which seem to be no greater than 5% of happening, considering the historical context. More likely though, considering Waddle, Chase, and Bateman all have potential to claim a top 12 spot based on resume and ability in addition to the two aforementioned names, the chances are probably closer to 3% or something like that. It could happen, but I don’t find it very likely at all.

Yeah, look - I hope you’re right haha.

But i’m 99.99999% positive Kyle Pitts and Devonta Smith are going to be drafted in the top 12 picks of this draft. I’m not going to do a huge writeup and I appreciate your points but, I just disagree. We will have plenty of time to discuss this in the (hopefully later rather than sooner) off-season. 

But those 2 guys are going top 12. 

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Yeah, look - I hope you’re right haha.

But i’m 99.99999% positive Kyle Pitts and Devonta Smith are going to be drafted in the top 12 picks of this draft. I’m not going to do a huge writeup and I appreciate your points but, I just disagree. We will have plenty of time to discuss this in the (hopefully later rather than sooner) off-season. 

But those 2 guys are going top 12. 

Yup. I will say that I agree that they both SHOULD go top 15, though I also haven’t watched enough of the other positions we don’t need to say that confidently. I’m sure Pitts goes top 12 because he’s both a matchup nightmare and a physical freak, an absolute unicorn. But yeah. Indeed, hopefully this is a discussion for later.

 

On another note, I’ve been turning my draft focus on the safety position as while I think the Ravens should take a flyer on Malik Hooker on a two year deal (some athletes take two seasons for an athlete to completely recover and be back at the highest level from a torn Achilles), I think we also need to look at safety in the draft.

I’m not sure if I’ve mentioned him before, but Ardarius Washington while very much undersized, very much impresses me. I really like his ability to tackle in the open field, his great range in patrolling the deep middle, and his playmaking ability. I can see why PFF was higher on him than they were his teammate Trevon Moerig. If he were 6’2” 220 lbs, he’d probably be a top 20 pick, but instead he’s like 5’8” 180 lbs playing the safety position. I think while that’s very small, it hasn’t shown him too many issues in college, except when he has to be used in the box and OL/TE get their hands on him. Outside of that, anything that has to do with space or coverage, he’s absolutely dynamic. If Tyrann Mathieu has survived in the NFL for as long as he has at 5’8 1/2” 186 lbs (combine measurements) than I’m absolutely on the Washington bandwagon. Here’s his ALL-22 footage.

 

[diamondbull424]

While this is all for nought because there’s no way he escapes the top 10 in the draft outside of a major injury, but this article on Kyle Pitts might’ve reignited the internal debate I had been having within myself about if Pitts and Smith were both available, who I would take... and this might’ve had me tip it back into the direction of Pitts. He’s the closest thing to Calvin Johnson since Megatron... I think he’s going to be better than Darren Waller... and our offense would have no issues with utilizing him as both a TE and WR.

Though it’s still so close because DeVonta Smith looks like he’s built like Rajon Rondo, he could potentially measure in at 6’1” with a 6’9” wingspan with route releases that would make Davante Adams proud.

Since our playoff chances have increased however, I think I’ll have to get more realistic with myself and start watching more tape of receivers on the Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Pat Freirmuth, Tylan Wallace, etc. level... which I’m still impressed with.

[diamondbull424]

On an unrelated note, more All-22 draft tape for another top ranked safety in this draft class; Jevon Holland, S, Oregon. Tbqh, I’m not particularly impressed. I think he’s an overrated prospect at this point. He looks very similar to Haha Clinton-Dix, who I also felt to be overrated. Not particularly strong in the box, solid tackler, has interceptions, but not a guy who covers a ton of space. His instincts are MAYBE above average at best, but nothing special. I see HHCD all the way with Holland. I’m sure he’ll be overrated throughout the process similar to HHCD. I see a 3rd round talent.

 

[Ray Reed]

On 12/22/2020 at 4:32 PM, Ray Reed said:

^^ That is a lottttt of work and conjecture trying to will out a way Devonta Smith doesn’t go top 10. 

I wish it weren’t, but he’s going top 10. 12 at the lowest. Guaranteed.

Kyle Pitts will also not make it past 12.

 Yeah he ain’t making it past 12 lol

[diamondbull424]

9 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

 Yeah he ain’t making it past 12 lol

Moot point now. Unless the Ravens lose this week we have no shot anyway to trade up for him... outside of injury, which you don’t wish for obviously.

But my argument has never  been that he doesn’t deserve to go in the top 12 picks, but that the NFL has shown time and again that when they get a unicorn that they don’t recognize, ie Russell Wilson in 2012, Lamar Jackson in 2018; they choose to go in favor of the tried and true. Brian Flores and the Dolphins are the only team that I think pulls the trigger. Unless Smith shows up at the combine weighing 185+ lbs that is. But at his listed 174 lbs, I don’t see it. Here’s how I can see it all playing out come draft day.

1. Jags- Trevor Lawrence, QB
2. Falcons f/Jets- Zack Wilson, QB (trade Ryan to SF)
3. Dolphins- Penei Sewell, LT
4. Jets f/Falcons- Justin Fields, QB
5. Panthers f/Bengals- Trey Lance, QB
6. Eagles- Caleb Farley, CB
7. Lions- Kyle Pitts, TE
8. Giants- JaMarr Chase, WR
9. Bengals f/Panthers- Patrick Surtain, CB
10. Broncos- Micah Parsons, LB
11. Cowboys- Jaycee Horn, CB
12. Chargers- Jaylen Mayfield, LT
13. Vikings- Wyatt Davis, OG
14. Patriots- DeVonta Smith, WR
* And while I’m at it...
15. Falcons f/49ers- Gregory Rousseau, DL
16. Raiders- Kwitty Paye, DL
17. Cardinals- Rashawn Slater, OL
18. Colts- Christian Darrisaw, OT
19. WFC- Jaylen Waddle, WR
20. Bears- Liam Eichenberg, OT
21. Jags- Samuel Cosmi, OT
22. Browns- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB
23. Dolphins- Najee Harris, RB
24. Ravens- Joseph Ossai, Edge
We’ll be losing one of, if not all of Judon, Ngakoue, and Bowser. DeCosta looks to reload with a talent on the edge. Ossai is such a beast with special tools to take his game to another level in the NFL. He’s a LB in the Von Miller/Tyus Bowser mold; a complete LB that can rush and drop. Not as polished a rusher as Miller was coming out of Texas A&M, but he’s better than Bowser. I can see Ossai being a Red Star player for the Ravens.

* Ravens sign Corey Davis in FA as another poster predicted. They’ll want a WR with playoff experience and who isn’t afraid to play in a run first offense. Davis is the fallback after they can’t sign Allen Robinson. 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

Just in case anyone wanted to watch Joseph Ossai, this is probably his second best game of his collegiate career.

He’s going up against current Ravens backup QB, Tyler Huntley... I’m sort of wondering if it would even be legal to bring Ossai onto our squad considering Huntley might still have a restraining order against him for all the abuse Ossai ushered onto him this game. There are a few obvious flaws to Ossai’s game but with developed technique, improved  get off at the snap, and a little more sand in his pants, I can see a him being the Pro Bowl version of TJ Watt and Von Miller’s All Pro skillset.

[Ray Reed]

11 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Moot point now. Unless the Ravens lose this week we have no shot anyway to trade up for him... outside of injury, which you don’t wish for obviously.

But my argument has never  been that he doesn’t deserve to go in the top 12 picks, but that the NFL has shown time and again that when they get a unicorn that they don’t recognize, ie Russell Wilson in 2012, Lamar Jackson in 2018; they choose to go in favor of the tried and true. Brian Flores and the Dolphins are the only team that I think pulls the trigger. Unless Smith shows up at the combine weighing 185+ lbs that is. But at his listed 174 lbs, I don’t see it. Here’s how I can see it all playing out come draft day.

1. Jags- Trevor Lawrence, QB
2. Falcons f/Jets- Zack Wilson, QB (trade Ryan to SF)
3. Dolphins- Penei Sewell, LT
4. Jets f/Falcons- Justin Fields, QB
5. Panthers f/Bengals- Trey Lance, QB
6. Eagles- Caleb Farley, CB
7. Lions- Kyle Pitts, TE
8. Giants- JaMarr Chase, WR
9. Bengals f/Panthers- Patrick Surtain, CB
10. Broncos- Micah Parsons, LB
11. Cowboys- Jaycee Horn, CB
12. Chargers- Jaylen Mayfield, LT
13. Vikings- Wyatt Davis, OG
14. Patriots- DeVonta Smith, WR
* And while I’m at it...
15. Falcons f/49ers- Gregory Rousseau, DL
16. Raiders- Kwitty Paye, DL
17. Cardinals- Rashawn Slater, OL
18. Colts- Christian Darrisaw, OT
19. WFC- Jaylen Waddle, WR
20. Bears- Liam Eichenberg, OT
21. Jags- Samuel Cosmi, OT
22. Browns- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB
23. Dolphins- Najee Harris, RB
24. Ravens- Joseph Ossai, Edge
We’ll be losing one of, if not all of Judon, Ngakoue, and Bowser. DeCosta looks to reload with a talent on the edge. Ossai is such a beast with special tools to take his game to another level in the NFL. He’s a LB in the Von Miller/Tyus Bowser mold; a complete LB that can rush and drop. Not as polished a rusher as Miller was coming out of Texas A&M, but he’s better than Bowser. I can see Ossai being a Red Star player for the Ravens.

* Ravens sign Corey Davis in FA as another poster predicted. They’ll want a WR with playoff experience and who isn’t afraid to play in a run first offense. Davis is the fallback after they can’t sign Allen Robinson. 

 

Teams learned their lesson letting DK Metcalf and AJ Brown get to the 2nd round. Teams (like us) saw DK dominate on the football field but chose to take other WRs ahead of him because they didn’t love his combine (if i recall his cone time).

Teams will not let Devonta Smith out of the top 12, but I agree, moot point now because (hopefully) we won’t be picking #18.

I like going the edge route in the first round, although i’m a bit weary because the past few years we haven’t necessarily hit on pass rushers like we’d like...we tend to value guys who are “scrappy” and “motor” edge rushers over the “great get-off” and “physical specimen” edge rushers and it hasn’t exactly fared us well. Hopefully they change route with their pass rush evaluation this year if we’re going that direction first round.

[wackywabbit]

On 12/23/2020 at 6:56 AM, berlin calling said:

can see it already, its going to be Derwin James 2.0 scenario where Smith drops to us, only for EDC to trade down.

We still mad about Derwin James? The Ravens had BY FAR the best draft in 2018. We need a new go to anecdote for this scenario. 😆

14 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Teams learned their lesson letting DK Metcalf and AJ Brown get to the 2nd round. Teams (like us) saw DK dominate on the football field but chose to take other WRs ahead of him because they didn’t love his combine (if i recall his cone time).

That's not really how it went with DK. DK's college production was not dominant. He also had injury questions that factored in to him falling to the second.

I'm also bummed that Smith got to be featured this year and raised himself out of our reach. I'm not seeing this as a WR in round 1 year. I think those saying that we need to make a significant move for a vet are right. 

I'm optimistic that we will get Yannick resigned and I really hope we can get Bowser back too. He's a great SAM linebacker. Otherwise edge in round 1 is likely. O-line, TE, and DB are also needs.