NFLN Top 100 Players of 2020

[Soko]

4 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

Well, at least I know I have something to look forward to when Mahomes comes up as a topic...

You already got a taste of it with 2-0 Matt Moore. If Mahomes goes down for a season’s worth of games and the Chiefs make the playoffs, then you will know pain. 

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

NE fans been saying this for years but people still want to say it’s Brady or Belichick...

You’ll likely never hear that end of it. 

Yeah, but see, the difference is, Brady was a system QB, and Mahomes isn't.

[Soko]

1 minute ago, Jakuvious said:

Yeah, but see, the difference is, Brady was a system QB, and Mahomes isn't.

If high school teacher Matt Moore can go 2-0 with 4 TDs and a 100 passer rating, imagine what reigning MVP Lamar Jackson could do. 

[VanS]

On 8/2/2020 at 8:41 PM, Yin-Yang said:

All you can say is the offense wasn’t that talented, therefore Josh Allen = elite playmaker that was the main reason they made the playoffs. Doesn’t make sense. 

Actually it does make sense.  Its called degree of difficulty.  We see it all the time in sports.  Athletes and coaches get more credit for facing tougher odds.  Its how the Coach of the Year award in most sports doesn't always just go to the coach of the team with the best record but instead to the coach of the team that exceeded their pre-season expectations the most.

Josh Allen doing what he did with that supporting cast on offense was more impressive than what the defense accomplished. 

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Archimedes said:

I never said the Ravens weren’t a subpar offense before Lamar took over. They were. I said their overall talent wasn’t subpar. At the most important position, QB, they were carrying an absolute stiff, Flacco. That’s why their offense as a whole was subpar. 

One of the narratives that people are pushing to defend Lamar being ranked over Mahomes, is trying to downplay the level of talent around Lamar. Someone even tried to use the Ravens 2017 offensive supporting cast to downplay the 2019 supporting cast, in spite of them being MASSIVELY different.

Ah... so now I simply have to prove the talent was subpar prior to Lamar playing? Got you.

2018 Ravens Talent

Running Backs
Gus Edwards- 4.13 ypc w/o Lamar, 5.4 ypc w/ Lamar. 4.13 ypc would’ve ranked as the 34th best RB in the league. Had he played his entire 2018 with Lamar he would’ve tied for 2nd best and finished as the 13th best RB in DYAR and 9th in DVOA.

Kenneth Dixon- 3.38 ypc w/o Lamar, 6.15 ypc w/ Lamar. 3.38 ypc would’ve ranked as the 43rd best RB in the league. He didn’t have enough carries to qualify for the list but if he had kept pace, he would’ve been atop the league with Lamar.

Alex Collins- 3.67 ypc w/o Lamar, 2.57 ypc w/ Lamar. The one instance where a RB got worse with Lamar, though after this game Collins would be placed on IR with an undisclosed foot injury. So it’s quite possible he injured the foot in the game leading to his depressed stats.

All in all prior to Lamar the RBs combined for 607 yds on 3.49 ypc through 9 games. This would’ve put them on pace to finish with 1079 yds on the season. Obviously without including Lamar into the equation the teams RBs would’ve finished 32nd in the league in rushing. Add in Lamar gadget plays and any innocuous runs from WRs or Flacco and MAYBE they finish 31st, which is what they were projected to finish prior to Lamar starting.

Wide Receivers
John Brown- w/o Lamar he had 34 recs for 601 yds, 17.7 ypr. Would’ve been on pace for 60 recs, 1068 yds. This would’ve placed him 14th in yards and very similar production to his 2019 campaign with Josh Allen. In 2019 he would go on to rank 19th in the NFL by FO. Top 15-20 WR. This means he would be considered a subpar #1 WR in the NFL in a conventional offense.

Michael Crabtree- w/o Lamar he was 41 recs for 472 yds, 11.5 ypr. Would’ve been on pace for 73 recs, 839 yds. Was ranked by FO as the 59th best WR in 2017, 75th in 2018, and unranked in 2019. However considering his pace for 2018 he likely would’ve finished with slightly worse production than a player like Corey Davis, which would’ve been good for 48th ranked by FO. This would’ve meant Crabtree would’ve AT BEST, been a below average #2 WR in the NFL.

Willie Snead- w/o Lamar he had 45 recs for 448 yds through 9 games. Would’ve put him on pace for 80 recs, 796 yds, 9.95 ypr. He ranked as FOs 57th best WR. Which would be an above average to good slot WR in the NFL.

Chris Moore- 11 recs for 128 yds, 11.6 ypr. Paced to 20 recs for 228 yds. Wouldn’t qualify to be ranked by FO. He would be considered a subpar 4th WR in the NFL.

Tight End
Mark Andrews- Was a stud with or without Jackson. Pro Bowl level talent #1 TE. Rated as the 4th best TE in 2018 and was the 7th best TE in 2019 while playing through injuries.

Nick Boyle- Was ranked as the 43rd TE in the NFL. Not nearly as valuable in a conventional offense that’s using less 2 TE sets. For our offense however he’s a top 5 #2 TE in the league (when factoring in his blocking).

Maxx Williams- Went unqualified but was the 12th best of the unqualified options in 2018 and then 3rd best in 2019 with the Cardinals. Stands to reason that he’s a mediocre #2 TE in the league.

Hayden Hurst- Took time to recover from injury, went unqualified but ranked as the 22nd best, when healthy and with time to develop he would be ranked 10th best in 2019. As a rookie however his injuries and lack of comfort in the offense had him as a subpar #2 TE in the league.

Offensive Line
LT- Ronnie Stanley (16 starts)
LG- Alex Lewis (10 starts)
C- Matt Skura (16 starts)
RG- Marshal Yanda (16 starts)
RT- Orlando Brown Jr. (10 starts)
Swing- James Hurst (10 starts)

Prior to 2018 PFF projected this OL as the 24th best unit heading into the year after ranking as the 18th best unit in 2017 (read: subpar). This unit followed that projection up with blocking for a rushing attack that was 31st in the league (prior to Lamar). The pass protection was a strength of the team.

All in all a team OL that had similar deficiencies (albeit not as bad) in run blocking and similar strengths in pass protection (though not quite as good) was the 2018 Bucs who finished the season ranked by PFF as the 20th best unit in the league. It’s fair to assume that if Lamar never takes over the Ravens OL would have finished somewhere between the 18th and 24th best OL in the league. However Lamar taking over and the rushing attack averaging 200yds+ per game boosted their ranking to their 10th best unit by seasons end.

 

[VanS]

18 hours ago, ET80 said:

He's still holding onto Josh Dobbs as being the best QB in his draft - over Mahomes and Watson.

So, yeah - it's a given he can't admit his mistakes.

I've already said I will admit I am wrong if Dobbs never becomes a star.  I just think its a little too early to give up on a 25 year old QB with zero regular season starts to his name.  

25 isn't near the end for a NFL QB.  And I have seen nothing in the skill set  he's displayed thus far in his limited opportunities to discourage my pre-draft opinion of him.  He just needs an opportunity in real game action.  We'll see if luck is on his side this year. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by VanS

[Jakuvious]

17 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

If high school teacher Matt Moore can go 2-0 with 4 TDs and a 100 passer rating, imagine what reigning MVP Lamar Jackson could do. 

Might even win a playoff game.

[ET80]

1 minute ago, VanS said:

I've already said I will admit I am wrong if Dobbs never blows up.  I just think its a little too early to give up on a 25 year old QB with zero regular season starts to his name.  

He hasn't been able to beat out Mason Rudolph or Gardener Minshew. It's set in stone... guy is never going to blow up. 

But, I'm sure you'll have some argument about how you're not wrong on your prediction. Moving the goalpost is your best move...

[diamondbull424]

TL;DR my previous post, here are the snippets.

@Archimedes

2018 season
RBs- bad
WRs- below average
TEs- very good
OL- average

Whats more I’ve already stated that Flacco was rated as the 18th best QB in 2018 according to DVOA earlier in this thread.

Regardless of Flacco’s talent or not however, the OL and RB group production isn’t nearly as linked to the QB quality in a conventional offense, yet those units still had terrible production prior to Lamar.

How do you explain that incongruence? How does Flacco grade out as the #18 QB? How does an OL that you believe was better than subpar block 9 weeks as the 31st ranked unit in the NFL? Why did the WRs who played for the Ravens in 2018 not have great production directly before or after their stay with the Ravens considering Flacco was what made them subpar?

Edit: If you can’t explain these things IN DETAIL and with facts than very easily concede the point.

Edited August 4, 2020 by diamondbull424

[VanS]

15 minutes ago, ET80 said:

He hasn't been able to beat out Mason Rudolph or Gardener Minshew. It's set in stone... guy is never going to blow up. 

But, I'm sure you'll have some argument about how you're not wrong on your prediction. Moving the goalpost is your best move...

Kurt Warner was cut in favor of Ty Detmer by the Packers in 1994.  In 1998 he spent the year as the 3rd string QB on the Rams behind Tony Banks and Steve Bono.  Then in 1999 he couldn't beat out Trent Green until an injury gave him a chance.  Very rarely do QBs not drafted in the early rounds get starting jobs in the NFL short of an injury to the starter giving them their chance.  Gardner Minshew himself didn't exactly win the job last year due to stellar preseason play.  It took an injury to Foles for him to show what he had.

As long as Dobbs stays on an active roster he gives himself a shot for his oppotunity to come.  When it does come we'll see what he's got.  Like I've said a million times, I have seen nothing from his limited chances thus far to discourage my pre-draft evaluations.  He's looked just as good as I thought he would.  If he didn't look good in the limited snaps he's gotten thus far, best believe I would have already jumped ship and tried to run away from that take.  I truly believe he's gonna be special.  He just needs a shot.  

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by VanS

[Soko]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Actually it does make sense.  Its called degree of difficulty.  We see it all the time in sports.  Athletes and coaches get more credit for facing tougher odds.  Its how the Coach of the Year award in most sports doesn't always just go to the coach of the team with the best record but instead to the coach of the team that exceeded their pre-season expectations the most.

Josh Allen doing what he did with that supporting cast on offense was more impressive than what the defense accomplished. 

You’re saying a guy who led an offense to be bottom 10 in nearly every relevant category is an elite playmaker and accomplished something less than 5 other players could have. It’s makes ZERO sense. It’s like saying Kenyan Drake is a top 5 running back because he’s playing behind a bad offensive line. Or saying AI>MJ because MJ played with more All-Stars. Having a player playing with lesser talent doesn’t vault them over guys who’ve actually accomplished something.

EDIT: And the Bills offense isn’t even that bad. Outside of QB, it might have been best in the division last year on paper.

And more impressive =/= driving force of a playoff team. You’re moving goalposts, as usual. 

Are you going to comment on the travesty of a statement you made about the defense only being elite because of the rest Allen was giving them, extending drives? Despite the TOP, first downs, points per drive, 3D%? Nah, I’m sure you’ll just cut out whatever you’re wrong about.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Yin-Yang

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Having a player playing with lesser talent doesn’t vault them over guys who’ve actually accomplished something.

To me it does.  Its why I value the eye test over statistics or even win/loss records.  I rate every player based on the circumstances and situation they are in.  Over time circumstances and situations balance out and the most talented players eventually reveal themselves.  Its why I'm advocating for Josh Allen right now despite there being very little in the way of objective metrics to support my claims.  Right now he's not in the best circumstance to show folks like you exactly how great he is.  Once his circumstances improve then the raw metrics will reflect the talent that has always been there.

 

[Soko]

35 minutes ago, VanS said:

To me it does.  Its why I value the eye test over statistics or even win/loss records.  I rate every player based on the circumstances and situation they are in.  Over time circumstances and situations balance out and the most talented players eventually reveal themselves.  Its why I'm advocating for Josh Allen right now despite there being very little in the way of objective metrics to support my claims.  Right now he's not in the best circumstance to show folks like you exactly how great he is.  Once his circumstances improve then the raw metrics will reflect the talent that has always been there.

Riiight so that’s the case now but when Kamara has a great year with Drew Brees opening up the defense, one of the best OLs in the league, one of the best receivers in the league, and one of the league’s best offensive coaches iT’s aLl tAlEnT. 

We should get a map so we can see how far the goalposts have been used. Follow-up question:

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Are you going to comment on the travesty of a statement you made about the defense only being elite because of the rest Allen was giving them, extending drives? Despite the TOP, first downs, points per drive, 3D%? Nah, I’m sure you’ll just cut out whatever you’re wrong about.

How does the eye test measure against literal numbers?

[JAF-N72EX]

People still pay attention these? 

[Archimedes]

6 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

TL;DR my previous post, here are the snippets.

@Archimedes

2018 season
RBs- bad
WRs- below average
TEs- very good
OL- average

Whats more I’ve already stated that Flacco was rated as the 18th best QB in 2018 according to DVOA earlier in this thread.

Regardless of Flacco’s talent or not however, the OL and RB group production isn’t nearly as linked to the QB quality in a conventional offense, yet those units still had terrible production prior to Lamar.

How do you explain that incongruence? How does Flacco grade out as the #18 QB? How does an OL that you believe was better than subpar block 9 weeks as the 31st ranked unit in the NFL? Why did the WRs who played for the Ravens in 2018 not have great production directly before or after their stay with the Ravens considering Flacco was what made them subpar?

Edit: If you can’t explain these things IN DETAIL and with facts than very easily concede the point.

You need to adjust your offensive line grade. The Ravens had a very good offensive line in 2018. It WASN’T average. Their end of the year grade in 2017 and preseason PFF grades in 2018 are irrelevant. The 2017 Ravens offensive line was much different than the 2018 one.

Yanda missed most of the season in 2017 before coming back in 2018.

Brown was added as a rookie.

Skura moved from G to C replacing Hurst.

Lewis missed the season in 2017.

The 2018 offensive line finished with PFF’s 10th best grade, which is more important than their 18th preseason ranking. FO graded them the 9th best run blocking offensive line and the 8th best pass blocking. For Lamar Jackson, a guy who was bad as a passer in 2018 (-9.2 DVOA), and brought almost all his value to the offense as a runner, I would argue having a good line was more important than having good receivers.

Bottom 5 may have been harsh for Flacco, but I definitely think he was bottom 8 - 10. His 18th DVOA ranking was the product of him playing behind a good offensive line (where he had the 5th lowest sack rate (courtesy PFR) in 2018. The following year when he played behind a less talented OL, his DVOA plummeted to 29th.

Just like I don’t actually think Alex Smith was a better player than Rodgers or Russell Wilson in 2017, despite beating them both in DVOA, I think Flacco was worse than his 18th DVOA rating in 2018. 

So...

2018 season
RBs- bad
WRs- below average
TEs- very good
OL- very good

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Archimedes